Monday, August 18, 2008

The College Football Blog: Mountain West Conference Preview and Predictions


Mountain West Conference
Conference Rank: #7
Bowl Teams: 6
Conference Champ: Utah
Offensive Player of the Year: Max Hall-QB-BYU
Defensive Player of the Year: Russell Allen-LB-San Diego State
Coach of the Year: Kyle Whittingham-Utah

Conference Forecast: The MWC has distinguished itself as the toughest non-BCS conference year in and year out. They have the best teams at the top and the most depth of any of the non-BCS conferences. That is again the case this season, as they have 3 very good teams, and again have a number of decent teams to give them depth. If there is a “BCS Buster” this year it could easily come from this conference if the top teams don’t beat each other up.

Predicted Standings (Note: (#,#) = conference rec; #,# = regular season rec; [#,#] = final rec)

1. Utah (8-0) 11-1 [12-1]
2. TCU (7-1) 10-2 [11-2]
3. BYU (6-2) 9-3 [10-3]
4. New Mexico (4-4) 5-7
5. UNLV (4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
6. Wyoming (3-5) 6-6 [7-6]
7. Air Force (3-5) 6-6 [6-7]
8. San Diego State (1-7) 3-9
9. Colorado State (0-8) 1-11



Team Notes and Predictions

Utah (8-0) 11-1 [12-1]
Finish: 1st
Bowl Game: Las Vegas Bowl
Forecast: The Utes return 14 starters, have as much talent as any team in the conference, and have a very manageable conference schedule. I see them losing their season opener at Michigan but winning the remainder of their games to take the conference championship and nearly get to a BCS bowl. I have them beating Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl

TCU (7-1) 10-2 [11-2]
Finish: 2nd
Bowl Game: Poinsettia Bowl
Forecast: Last season TCU had horrible luck with injuries and turnovers, and they suffered a couple of close losses that kept them from having a great year. This year they return 15 and look to have the top defense in the MWC. The offense should be among the top 3 in the conference as well and I see them reaching double digits in wins for the 6th time this decade. They won’t beat Oklahoma but I think they’ll win over BYU, and their only loss in the conference will be at Utah. I have them beating Buffalo in the Poinsettia Bowl.

BYU (6-2) 9-3 [10-3]
Finish: 3rd
Bowl Game: New Mexico Bowl
Forecast: BYU has gone undefeated in the MWC the last 2 years and they have the talent to do it again this season. They are the best in the conference at offensive and defensive line and the offense should be the best in the MWC again. However, they lose a lot on defense and their conference schedule is difficult. I see them beating UCLA but not Washington in the non-con portion of the season, and I think they’ll lose at Utah and TCU to finish 3rd. I have them making a 4th straight bowl and beating Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl.



New Mexico (4-4) 5-7
Finish: 4th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: New Mexico has relied on a tremendous home field advantage to be consistently decent. The defense will again be tough this year but they only have 11 starters coming back and a lot of their winnable games are on the road. I think New Mexico will open the season with 4 straight losses. I see them finishing the year strong but they won’t be bowl eligible for the first time since 2000.

UNLV (4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
Finish: 5th
Bowl Game: Hawaii Bowl
Forecast: UNLV has won 2 games in each of the last 4 seasons, but last year they came up short in a number of close games. This year they have 14 starters back and have a manageable schedule and I see them finally getting to a bowl for the first time since 2000. I have them losing to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl.

Wyoming (3-5) 6-6 [7-6]
Finish: 6th
Bowl Game: Armed Forces Bowl
Forecast: Last year Wyoming had a lot of trouble with turnovers and they still ended up 5-7. This year they return 14 starters and should be good on both sides of the ball. I see them opening 4-1 and getting to their first bowl since 2004. I have them beating Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl.



Air Force (3-5) 6-6 [6-7]
Finish: 7th
Bowl Game: Meineke Bowl
Forecast: AF snapped a string of 3 consecutive losing seasons in Troy Calhoun’s first year on the job. They had some good luck with turnovers and this year they return just 8 starters and lose more lettermen than they have returning. That would seem to spell disaster but I think they have enough to avoid a complete rebuilding year. In fact, I think they’ll sweep Army and Navy to win the Commander-in-Chief Trophy and get to a second straight bowl. I have them losing to Louisville in the Meineke Bowl.

San Diego State (1-7) 3-9
Finish: 8th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: San Diego State has really struggled this decade and that will continue this season. They were outgained by more than any team in the conference last year and were fortunate to win as many as 4 games. This year they return only 11 starters and I don’t see them matching last season’s win total. I think their only conference win will be over Colorado State.

Colorado State (0-8) 1-11
Finish: 9th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: From 1994 to 2003, CSU had 10 straight winning seasons, but after 4 straight non-winning seasons Sonny Lubick stepped down, and no Steve Fairchild starts over with little in the cupboard. They fell short in some close games last year that could have made their season better and had bad luck with injury, but they have even less to work with this year. Only 12 starters return and I expect them to be one of the worst teams in football. I see them going winless in the MWC, with their only win of the season coming against Sacramento State.



Big Games on the Schedule

Sat, August 30th
Utah @ Mich (Definitely a winnable game for Utah)

Sat, August 31st
Col St. vs. Colorado (The last 6 games have been decided by total of 25 pts)

Sat, September 6th
BYU @ Wash (Early test for the Cougs)
San Diego St. @ ND (SD St. has scared BCS teams on the road before)

Sat, September 13th
UCLA @ BYU (Rematch of last year’s Las Vegas Bowl)
Utah @ Utah St. (Battle of the Brothers started in 1892)

Sat, September 20th
TCU @ SMU (The winner of this one takes the “Iron Skillet”)

Sat, September 27th
TCU @ Oklahoma (TCU has won last 2 in Norman (‘96 and ‘05))
NM @ NM St. (The Battle of I-25)
Nev @ UNLV (Winner gets the “Fremont Cannon”)

Thu, October 2nd
Oregon St. @ Utah (If Utes beat Mich and are 5-0 this one will be huge)

Sat, October 4th
Navy @ AF (AF has lost 5 straight)

Thu, October 16th
BYU @ TCU (Cougs should come in with 20 straight conference wins)

Sat, November 11th
AF @ Army (AF is 17-2 vs. Army since 1989)
Utah @ NM (Could be a trap game for the Utes)

Thu, November 16th
TCU @ Utah (Could determine conference champ)
Wyo @ Tenn (Wyo won @ Miss back in 2005)

Sat, November 22nd
BYU @ Utah (Could be between pair of teams undefeated in conference)

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