Sunday, August 10, 2008

The College Football Blog: SEC Preview and Predictions



Southeastern Conference

Conference Rank: #1

Bowl Teams: 10

Conference Champ: Florida

Offensive Player of the Year: Matthew Stafford-QB-Georgia

Defensive Player of the Year: Greg Hardy-DE-Mississippi

Coach of the Year: Houston Nutt-Mississippi

Conference Forecast:
The SEC has been the toughest conference in college football for years now and it will be again in 2008. They have a couple of National Championship front runners (Georgia and Florida) as well as a handful of teams that could easily reach double digits in wins. There are a couple of bad teams at the bottom but the SEC is the deepest conference in the country again this season. No doubt about it: at the top, the middle, and the bottom the SEC is the best conference in college football.


Predicted Standings (Note: (#,#)= conference rec; #,#= regular season rec; [#,#]= final rec)


East

1. Florida: (7-1) 11-1 [13-1]

2. Georgia: (7-1) 11-1 [12-1]

3. South Carolina: (5-3) 8-4 [9-4]

4. Tennessee: (5-3) 9-3 [10-3]

5. Kentucky: (2-6) 6-6 [7-6]

6. Vanderbilt: (0-8) 3-9


West

1. Auburn: (7-1) 10-2 [11-3]

2. LSU: (4-4) 8-4 [9-4]

3. Alabama: (4-4) 7-5 [8-5]

4. Mississippi: (4-4) 6-6 [7-6]

5. Mississippi State: (3-5) 7-5 [7-6]

6. Arkansas: (0-8) 3-9


SEC Championship Game

Florida (12-1) over Auburn (10-3)
To bad she's a Gator.

Team Notes and Predictions

Florida (7-1) 11-1 [13-1]
Finish in East: 1st
Bowl Game: Sugar Bowl
Forecast: I think Florida will be dominant. I still didn't think they'd be able to go undefeated in the SEC so I picked them to lose at Tennessee; not for any particular reason other than the fact that strange things often happen in that series. I think they'll win the East and then beat Auburn in the SEC Championship. I have them going to the Sugar Bowl and beating Penn State.

Georgia (7-1) 11-1 [12-1]
Finish in East: 2nd
Bowl Game: Orange Bowl
Forecast: The Dawgs' schedule is abusive. Based on the previous season's W-L records, Georgia has the hardest schedule in the country, with their 2008 opponents having won 63.2% of their games last season. Phil Steele uses a computer formula to determine how tough a team's schedule will be based on how good their opponents will be this season and he has Georgia's schedule ranked 3rd hardest in country. Last year the Dawgs had a bye week before the Florida game and Tebow's non-throwing shoulder was banged up so most of the QB-running part of the Gators' offense was scrapped. This year the Dawgs play at LSU the week before Florida and I think they will make it to Jacksonville undefeated but will lose to the Gators this time. I have them going to the Orange Bowl as an at large BCS team and beating FSU.

South Carolina (5-3) 8-4 [9-4]
Finish in East: 3rd
Bowl Game: Chick-fil-a Bowl
Forecast: If the Gamecocks can ever find a QB they will be as good as they appeared to be at the start of last season. I predict they will rebound from last seasons collapse and get back to a bowl. I think they'll start 8-2 before losing their last two games to Florida and rival Clemson and then beat Wake Forrest in the Chick-fil-a Bowl

Tennessee (5-3) 9-3 [10-3]
Finish in East: 4th
Bowl Game: Cotton Bowl
Forecast: The Vols will have to break in a new QB but with Arian Foster running behind a great offensive line and an improved secondary, I think they'll be better than last year. But they won't be as lucky and they'll have another up and down year. I have them beating Florida and Alabama but losing to Auburn, Georgia, and South Carolina and then beating Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl.

Kentucky (2-6) 6-6 [7-6]
Finish in East: 5th
Bowl Game: Liberty Bowl
Forecast: Kentucky loses almost all of the skill position players on offense, including QB Andre' Wodson, but they should still have a decent defense and I don't see them falling all the way back to where they were a few years ago. I think they'll open with a big win against rival Louisville and get conference wins over Arkansas and Vandy to make it to their 3rd straight bowl. I have them beating Tulsa in the Liberty Bowl.


Vanderbilt (0-8) 3-9
Finish in East: 6th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Vandy has been better lately but hasn't gotten to a bowl and this year I don't think they have much of a chance with little talent and a very inexperienced offensive line. I have them going winless in the conference but getting non-conference wins over Rice and Duke at home and Miami (OH) on the road.



Auburn (7-1) 10-2 [11-3]
Finish in the West: 1st
Bowl Game: Capital One Bowl
Forecast: Auburn switches to a spread offense this season behind a new Offensive Coordinator who brings over the system he used at Troy. They'll have a bunch of good running backs, a great offensive line, and 16 returning starters, and I think they'll be the best in the West. I see them starting the season 7-0 before losing a Thursday night game at West Virginia. I think they'll beat Alabama again and go to the SEC Championship game where they'll lose to Florida. I have them beating Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl.

LSU (4-4) 8-4 [9-4]
Finish in the West: 2nd
Bowl Game: Music City Bowl
Forecast: LSU suffers heavy losses, including both QB's, running back Jacob Hester, Glenn Dorsey, and almost the entire secondary. They were also pretty fortunate last season and they no longer have Defensive Coordinator Bo Pelini. At the same time they still have a bunch of good running backs and receivers and the defense will be strong again. I think they'll fall off a bit but still be good, going 0-3 in October but rebounding with a 4-0 November. I have them beating Virginia Tech in the Music City Bowl

Alabama (4-4) 7-5 [8-5]
Finish in the West: 3rd
Bowl Game: Outback Bowl
Forecast: Alabama's defense loses some key pieces and they lose their top receivers but they have a good offensive line and I think they'll improve in Saban's second year. I don't see many big wins though. I predict they will start the year with a loss to Clemson in the Dome and also lose to Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU at home and Auburn on the road. I have them beating Michigan in the Outback Bowl.

Mississippi (4-4) 6-6 [7-6]
Finish in the West: 4th
Bowl Game: Papa John's Bowl
Forecast: Quarterback is a question mark for Ole Miss but they have a good young running back, some good receivers and a good offensive line. The defense is strong, led by a great defensive line. I think Mississippi will be the most improved team in the conference, with Houston Nutt taking over for Ed Orgeron, who was a great recruiter but a bumbling idiot as a head coach. I think they'll beat Vandy and South Carolina at home and Arkansas on the road and then finish the season with a win over arch rival Mississippi State. I have them beating Rutgers in the Papa John's Bowl or whatever it is.

Mississippi State (3-5) 7-5 [7-6]
Finish in the West: 5th
Bowl Game: Independence Bowl
Forecast: The Maroon Dogs have 14 starters back but some serious question at offensive line and their defensive coordinator has moved on to South Carolina. The Croomdogs had a successful year last season but they were very fortunate to win a lot of close games despite often being outgained by opponents. I think they will be close to as good as last season and get to their second consecutive bowl. I predict they will beat Vandy, Arkansas, and Kentucky at home but I see them losing their final game of the year to rival Ole Miss. I have them losing to Texas in the Independence Bowl.

Arkansas (0-8) 3-9
Finish in the East: 6th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Arkansas is going through a major transition with Bobby Petrino taking over for Houston Nutt. They have just 11 starters returning from last year and they lose some major pieces, including the driving force of the team, running backs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, who were drafted 4th and 22nd respectively in the NFL draft. Their top 6 tacklers also are gone and the offensive line is nearly as inexperienced as the defense. Petrino, as Falcons fans know, has little use for players who don't fit his program, so it's very possible he will play a true freshman QB over senior Casey Dick. Falcons fans also know that Petrino is not adept at winning with less than the opposition and that's what he will have in almost every game this season. The cupboard is empty and whatever recruiting he has been able to do won't pay off immediately. I think they'll go winless in the conference in fact, with their only wins in 2008 coming against Western Illinois, ULM, and Tulsa.


Big Games on the Schedule

Week 1
Thurs, August 28th
NC St @ SC (First game with SEC team other than Vandy @ Mia (OH))
Sat, August, 30th
Haw @ Fla (First look at Florida and Hawaii's first game without June Jones)
Ala vs. Clem (Pretty big game for August; takes place at Georgia Dome)
Sun, August 31st
Ken @ Louisville (It's not basketball but these people still hate each other)
Mon, September 1st
Tenn @ UCLA (SEC vs. Pac-10 is always fun)

Week 2
Sat, September 6th
Mia at Fla (Haven't played since 04 Peach; Fla has lost 6 straight vs Mia, 25-28 all-time)

Week 3
Sat, September 13th
Ark @ Tex (Renewal of old Southwest Conference rivalry)
UGA @ SC (Always big for SC; big for UGA if they lose; vs. Spurrier always big)

Week 4
Sat, September 20th
Fla @ Tenn (Once biggest SEC game of year; 13/16 SEC Champ Game's had UT or Fla)
LSU @ Aub (Battle of best 2 West teams; 7 of last 11 SEC Champ Game's had Aub or LSU)
UGA @ ASU (Besides GT, toughest non-con road game for UGA since Clem in 1990)


Week 5
Sat, September 27th
Ala @ UGA (First big home game for UGA)
Tenn @ Aub (First meeting since 04 SEC Champ Game; Aub has won 3 straight vs UT)

Week 6
Sat, October 4th
SC @ Miss (Yeah, there aren't many big games that week for SEC teams)

Week 7
Sat, October 11th
LSU @ Fla (Last 3 years both teams have been #11 or higher entering this game)
Tenn @ UGA (Has become bitter rivalry since started playing every year in 1992)

Week 8
Sat, October 18th
LSU @ SC (With games @ Fla, AUB, and vs. UGA, this could be huge game for LSU)

Week 9
Thur, October 23rd
Aub @ WV (This might be the biggest non-con game for any SEC team in 2008)
Sat, October 25th
Ala @ Tenn (One of the best rivalries in football)
UGA @ LSU (Became a bit of a rivalry when teams played 4 times in 3 years from 03-05)

Week 10
Sat, November 1st
UGA vs. Fla (Could determine Nat Champ; UGA hasn't won 2 straight v Fla since 87-89)
Tenn vs. SC (Big game in the East; Flumer vs. Spurrier)

Week 11
Sat, November 8th
Ala @ LSU (Saban returns to Baton Rouge)

Week 12
Sat, November 15th
SC @ Fla (Spurrier goes to Swamp for second time as SC coach)
UGA @ Aub (One of the most competitive rivalries in football)
Miss St @ Ala (Croom has beaten alma mater the last two years)

Week 13
Sat, November 22nd
Miss @ LSU (Underrated rivalry; Miss has lost 6 straight, 4 of those by 3 or less)
Tenn @ Vandy (In last 4 yrs, Vandy has won once, lost by 5 once, and lost by 1 once)

Week 14
Fri, November 28th
Miss St @ Miss (The Egg Bowl)
Sat, November 29th
Fla @ FSU (Once a battle of perennial top 5 teams, still a heated rivalry)
GT @ UGA (Clean Old Fashioned Hate)
SC @ Clem (SC has lost 9 of 11; Spurrier needs to start winning this game more)
Ken @ Tenn (UT has won 23 straight; UK has lost by 5 or less in 3 of last 4 years)
LSU @ Ark (This one's always good)
Aub @ Ala (The Iron Bowl)






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