Conference USA
Conference Rank: #10
Bowl Teams: 6
Conference Champ: Tulsa
Offensive Player of the Year: Jarett Dillard-WR-Rice
Defensive Player of the Year: Gerald McRath-LB-Southern Mississippi
Coach of the Year: Tommy West-Memphis
Conference Forecast: Most people would consider it a stretch to rank CUSA behind the WAC, and almost everyone would probably consider it a stretch to rank CUSA behind the MAC, but I rank them 10th none the less. They’re 3-8 in bowl games the last two years, and last year they were 2-23 in the regular season against teams from BCS conferences. In non-conference games against non-BCS conference teams CUSA was just 8-7, and this year I expect CUSA to go down and the other non-BCS conferences to go up. CUSA has never had a team make a BCS bowl and they don’t have any great teams this year. The reason I rank CUSA below even the MAC this year is because the middle and the bottom of the league are down as well.
Predicted Standings (Note: (#,#) = conference rec; #,# = regular season rec; [#,#] = final rec)
East
1. Eastern Carolina (6-2) 6-6 [6-7]
2. Memphis (6-2) 8-4 [8-5]
3. UCF (5-3) 6-6 [6-7]
4. Southern Miss (4-4) 5-7
5. Marshall (3-5) 4-8
6. UAB (1-7) 2-10
West
1. Tulsa (6-2) 9-3 [10-4]
T2. UTEP (4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
T2. Houston (4-4) 7-5 [7-6]
T2. Rice (4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
5. Tulane (3-5) 5-7
6. SMU (2-6) 4-8
Conference USA Championship Game
Tulsa (10-3) over East Carolina (6-7)
Team Notes and Predictions
East Carolina (6-2) 6-6 [6-7]
Finish in the East: 1st
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: ECU has 16 starters back from a team that went 6-2 in conference play last year, but they were very fortunate in 2007, and were actually outgained by opponents in CUSA games. Still, they have a very manageable conference schedule in a weak league. I think they’ll go 0-4 in non-conference play but still win the East. However, I see them losing the championship game to Tulsa to fall to 6-7 and stay home for the bowl season.
Memphis (6-2) 8-4 [8-5]
Finish in the East: 2nd
Bowl Game: New Orleans Bowl
Forecast: The Tigers improved from 2 wins to 7 wins last year, and this year they have 15 starters returning. They’ll have to break in a new QB this season, but they have great receivers and the best OL in the conference. Defensively they are strong up front and in the secondary. I think they’ll go 6-2 in conference and go bowling for the 5th time in 6 years. I have them losing to FAU in the New Orleans Bowl.
UCF (5-3) 6-6 [6-7]
Finish in the East: 3rd
Bowl Game: St. Pete Bowl
Forecast: Central Florida won the conference title and won 10 games last season, but this year they lose their stud running back Kevin Smith, and they have a new QB. But they should still have the top defense in the conference and they have a great coach. I see them breaking even at 6-6 to get to a third bowl in four years. I have them losing to Cinci in the St. Pete Bowl.
Southern Miss (4-4) 5-7
Finish in the East: 4th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Southern Miss completed their 14th straight winning season last year, but Jeff Bower was forced to resign after 17 seasons as head coach, and I believe the Golden Eagles will come to rue that decision. They have just 10 returning starters and lose 22 lettermen. I believe S. Miss will miss Bower and the bowls this season. I see that 14 year streak of winning records coming to an end in Larry Fedora’s first year at the helm.
Marshall (3-5) 4-8
Finish in the East: 5th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Marshall gets 17 starters back and has good skill position players. The defense should be improved as well, and the Thundering Herd could be one of the most improved teams in the country. I’m going to be conservative about it and say they’ll improve slightly, but not enough to get to a bowl.
UAB (1-7) 2-10
Finish in the East: 6th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Since going bowling in 2004, the Blazers have dropped to 5 wins, 3 wins, and 2 wins in each of the last 3 years respectively. They simply aren’t up to snuff talent wise. I think they’ll win just 1 in the conference again this year, with their lone CUSA win coming over Marshall at home.
Tulsa (6-2) 9-3 [10-4]
Finish in the West: 1st
Bowl Game: Liberty Bowl
Forecast: Tulsa made it to the CUSA Championship Game last year and they were very impressive in their 63-7 thrashing of Bowling Green in the GMAC Bowl. This year there are questions on defense and they must start over at QB with Paul Smith gone. But they have the best RB’s and WR’s in the conference, and a great O-line, and they look like the best team in the conference to me. I think they’ll open the year 8-0 and flirt with a BCS bowl but then lose 3 of their last 4 games. However, I still think they’ll win the West and beat ECU in the title game. I have them losing to Kentucky in the Liberty Bowl.
UTEP (4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
Finish in the West: Tied 2nd
Bowl Game: Texas Bowl
Forecast: The Miners have missed out on the bowl season the last two years after going 8-4 in each of Mike Price’s first two seasons in El Paso. This year the defense should improve, and they have a good QB, a good RB, and good receivers. I think they’ll get bowl eligible again after a two year absence. I have them losing to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl.
Houston (4-4) 7-5 [7-6]
Finish in the West: Tied 2nd
Bowl Game: Armed Forces Bowl
Forecast: Houston has been one of the better CUSA teams over the years but now they must start over with new coach Kevin Sumlin. Luckily for Sumlin, he has some good tools to work with. They have a veteran QB and one of the best defenses in the CUSA. Houston went 6-2 in conference last year and could have been even better, as they outgained CUSA teams by the second most yards in the conference. I like the Cougars to go bowling for a 4th straight year and the 5th time in 6 seasons. I have them losing to Wyoming in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Rice (4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
Finish in the West: Tied 2nd
Bowl Game: GMAC Bowl
Forecast: Rice has 16 returning starters and loses only 18 lettermen. They should again have one of the most explosive offenses in the CUSA. Unfortunately, they should have the worst defense in the conference again this year as well. But I still think they can get to their second bowl game in three years. I think they’ll end the season strong, with three straight wins to get bowl eligible. I have them losing to Ball State in the GMAC Bowl.
Tulane (3-5) 5-7
Finish in the West: 5th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Tulane could have easily managed a winning record in Bob Toledo’s first season, but they had a number of tough losses, and ended up 4-8. This year they get back 15 starters but stud RB Matt Forte is gone. I think that will spell trouble. I think the Wave will improve slightly but not enough to get bowl eligible.
SMU (2-6) 4-8
Finish in the West: 6th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: SMU is a program that wants badly to be relevant again, and I believe that will eventually happen now that June Jones has taken over the reigns. They had a number of close losses last season and they may improve enough in Jones’ first year to get back to relevancy right away. However, they were 1-11 and 0-8 in CUSA play last year, and I don’t think it will be that quick of a fix. I see them improving, but still going just 2-6 in CUSA play.
Big Games on the Schedule
Fri, August 29th
SMU @ Rice (Rice has won 9 straight at home vs. SMU)
Sat, August 30th
VT vs. EC (Game played in Charlotte)
Mem @ Miss (The Tigers have lost 17 straight to the Rebs)
Sat, September 6th
Marsh @ Wis (Marshall has never beaten a Big Ten team)
S Miss @ Aub (First meeting since 1993)
Hou @ Ok St. (Cougs are 9-8-1 all-time vs. Ok St.)
WV @ EC (EC is just 2-17 all-time vs. WV)
USF @ UCF (They’ve met the last 3 years, with UCF losing all 3)
Tulane @ Ala (First meeting since 1994)
Texas @ UTEP (First meeting for in-state schools since 1933)
Sat, September 13th
UAB @ Tenn (Blazers lost just 17-10 at Tenn in 2005 season opener)
SMU @ Texas Tech (SMU has lost 12 straight)
Sat, September 20th
EC @ NC St. (EC is 10-15 all-time vs. Wolfpack)
Rice @ Texas (Owls have lost 37 of last 38)
NM @ Tulsa (First meeting since 1997)
TCU @ SMU (Battle for the “Iron Skillet”)
NM St. @ UTEP (Battle of I-10)
Sat, September 27th
Marsh @ WV (Marsh is 0-7 all-time vs. WV)
Sat, October 4th
Rice @ Tulsa (Last year Tulsa won 48-43 in one of year’s best shoot outs)
Fri, October 10th
Louisville @ Mem (Louisville leads all-time series 21-19)
Sat, October 11th
UCF @ Miami (First meeting between two Florida schools)
Sat, October 18th
Mem @ EC (Could determine which team wins the East)
UTEP @ Tulsa (Last year UTEP won 48-47)
Hou @ SMU (Houston has won 8 of last 11)
Sat, October 25th
S Miss @ Mem (S Miss was 25-5 vs. Mem before losing 3 of last 4)
Sun, October 26th
UCF @ Tulsa (Two teams have met in CUSA Ch. Game in 2 of its 3 years)
Sat, November 1st
Tulsa @ Ark (Tulsa has lost 16 straight to Arkansas)
Tulane @ LSU (Tulane has lost 16 straight to LSU)
Rice @ UTEP (Last year Rice won 56-48)
Sun, November 2nd
EC @ UCF (Should be big game in the East)
Sat, November 15th
Tulsa @ Hou (Last year Tulsa won 56-7 to clinch the West title)
SMU @ UTEP (UTEP has won 4 of last 5)
Sat, November 22nd
UCF @ Mem (Could be big game in the East)
UTEP @ Hou (Could be big game in the West)
Sat, November 29th
Hou @ Rice (Old SWC rivalry)
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