Monday, August 18, 2008

The College Football Blog: MAC Preview and Predictions


Mid-American Conference
Conference Rank: #9
Bowl Teams: 5
Conference Champ: Central Michigan
Offensive Player of the Year: Dan LeFevour-QB-Central Michigan
Defensive Player of the Year: Barry Church-SS-Toledo
Coach of the Year: Gregg Brandon-Bowling Green

Conference Forecast: The MAC has done relatively well against teams from BCS conferences over the years and lately they have done very well against teams from non-BCS conferences. They had a down year last year and still won 5 games against the BCS conferences and went 7-4 against non-BCS I-A schools, including 3-0 vs. the Sun Belt. They lacked a great team last year, but they should be better this season. Still, ranking them 9th could be seen as a stretch. They should have a number of good teams at the top, but it is their depth that leads me to rank them higher than the C-USA.

Predicted Standings (Note: (#,#) = conference rec; #,# = regular season rec; [#,#] = final rec)

East
1. Bowling Green (8-0) 9-3 [10-4]
2. Buffalo (6-2) 8-4 [8-5]
3. Miami(OH) (5-3) 6-6
4. Kent State (4-4) 6-6
5. Temple (3-5) 4-8
6. Ohio (1-7) 2-10
7. Akron (0-8) 1-11

West
1. Central Michigan (8-0) 10-2 [12-2]
T2. Western Michigan (5-3) 7-5 [8-5]
T2. Ball State (5-3) 9-3 [10-3]
T2. Toledo (5-3) 6-6
5. Northern Illinois (1-7) 2-10
6. Eastern Michigan (1-7) 2-10

Mid-American Conference Championship Game
Central Michigan (11-2) over Bowling Green (9-4)



Bowling Green (8-0) 9-3 [10-4]
Finish in the East: 1st
Bowl Game: International Bowl
Forecast: BG went 6-2 in the conference last year but was embarrassed, 63-7, by Tulsa in the GMAC Bowl. This year they’ll return 17 starters and lose only 16 lettermen, and I think they’ll beat Minnesota again and go undefeated in conference play. I see them losing to CM in the MAC Championship Game but this time I have them beating Connecticut in the International Bowl.



Buffalo (6-2) 8-4 [8-5]
Finish in the East: 2nd
Bowl Game: Poinsettia Bowl
Forecast: Buffalo was one of the most improved teams in the country in Turner Gill’s 3rd season, winning 5 games last year. This season they bring back 18 starters from a team that went 5-3 in the conference. I see them taking the next step and going 8-4 to reach a bowl game for the first time in their history. I have them losing to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Miami(OH) (5-3) 6-6
Finish in the East: 3rd
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Miami rebounded from a terrible 2006 to go 5-2 in the conference and reach the championship game last year. They lost to CM and missed out on a bowl game for the third straight year. They outgained conference foes by almost 100 yards a game last season and came out on the right end of a number of close wins. This year they have 6 home games and they return 17 starters, and they could blossom in Shane Montgomery’s 4th year. However, the conference as a whole is better, and I think the Redhawks will have about the same year as they did last season. I have them going 5-3 in the MAC and getting bowl eligible, but I see them staying home during bowl season for the 4th year in a row.

Kent State (4-4) 6-6
Finish in the East: 4th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Last year Kent St. went just 1-7 in conference play but they had some very bad luck with turnovers, and they lost a number of close games. This year they get 16 starters back and I look for them to improve a lot. I predict they will go 6-6 for their second non-losing season in the last 7 years.

Temple (3-5) 4-8
Finish in the East: 5th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Temple made huge strides last season, winning as many games (4) as they had won in the previous 4 seasons combined. This will be Al Golden’s 4th season in Philly and 2008 has a chance to be one of the greatest seasons in Temple football history. They return 53 of 55 lettermen and all 22 starters! Still, though they went 4-4 in the MAC last season, they were outgained by 56.5 yards a game in conference play, and won a couple of games with scores inside the final minute. For the second straight year I think they won’t be terrible—which is actually something when you’re talking Temple Football—but I don’t see them topping last season’s 4 win total.

Ohio (1-7) 2-10
Finish in the East: 6th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Ohio fell to 6-6 last year following their 9 win season of 2006, and I think they’re fall will continue in 2008. They have the worst offense in the conference and the least amount of returning starters. They also have one of the tougher schedules of any MAC team and I predict their only conference win will be against Akron.

Akron (0-8) 1-11
Finish in the East: 7th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Akron has always been able to stay above the bottom of the MAC but this year I predict that will come to an end. They went 3-5 in the conference last season but they were outgained by more than any team in the MAC. They return just 13 starters and are very inexperienced. I think they will be one of the worst teams in college football and will go winless in conference play, with their lone win of the season coming over Army.



Central Michigan (8-0) 10-2 [12-2]
Finish in the West: 1st
Bowl Game: Motor City Bowl
Forecast: The Chippewas have won the last 2 MAC Championships and are 20-5 in conference play over the last 3 years. They have the best offense in the conference and they bring 16 starters back from last year’s team, including 2007 MAC Offensive Player of the Year QB Dan LeFevour. I believe they will again be the best team in the conference and if they weren’t playing at Georgia on September 6th, I’d say they have a chance to be a BCS-Buster. I think they’ll lose that one and at Purdue, but I predict they will go undefeated in the conference and beat BG in the title game. I have them beating NW in the Motor City Bowl.

Western Michigan (5-3) 7-5 [8-5]
Place in the West: Tied 2nd
Bowl Game: Congressional Bowl
Forecast: WM dropped to 5-7 last year in Bill Cubit’s 3rd season after back to back winning seasons. This year they are very experienced and should have the best defense in the MAC. The offense should also be strong and I see them opening 5-1 and getting back to the bowls. I have them beating Nevada in the Congressional Bowl.

Ball State (5-3) 9-3 [10-3]
Place in the West: Tied 2nd
Bowl Game: GMAC Bowl
Forecast: BSU had their first winning season of the decade last year and the Cardinals have won 5 conference games in each of the last two years. They were fortunate last year but they return 18 starters this year and should be even better. They have a solid defense and the second best offense in the MAC. I see them beating Indiana and Navy and getting off to an 8-1 start. I have them getting back to the International Bowl for a rematch with Rutgers, and I think they win this one.



Toledo (5-3) 6-6
Finish in the West: Tied 2nd
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Toledo has fallen off the last two seasons and had losing records in back to back years. This year I think they’ll improve, behind 15 returning starters, a veteran QB, and a better defense. They have too tough of a schedule for me to predict anything super, but I look for them to get bowl eligible for the first time since 2005.

Northern Illinois (1-7) 2-10
Finish in the West: 5th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Last season NIU had their first losing season of the decade, falling all the way to 2-10. They lost some close games and had bad luck with turnovers, and they really played better than their record showed. This year they return 21 of 22 starters in Jerry Kill’s first year at the helm. Still, those 21 starters all went 2-10 last year and with a new coach in place, I’m just not feeling a big turn around. I think they’ll be one of the worst teams in the country again this year, and I think their only conference win will be against EM.

Eastern Michigan (1-7) 2-10
Finish in the West: 6th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: EM rebounded from a 1-11 2006 campaign to go 4-8 last year, and this year they should be much more experienced. Still, 2 of their 4 wins came by a total of 5 points last year, and another of their 4 wins came against Howard. I think they’ll drop off this year and be one of the worst teams in the country. I predict their only MAC win will be against Akron.



Big Games on the Schedule

Thu, August 28th
Vandy @ Mia(OH) (Mia lost by 11 last year in Nashville)

Sat, August 30th
BG @ Pitt (BG played Pitt in ‘99 and ‘00 and lost both games)
BC vs. Kent St. (Game played in Cleveland)
Akron @ Wis (Akron is 1-17 all-time vs. Big Ten)

Fri, September 5th
Navy @ Ball St. (Last year BSU won 34-31 in OT)

Sat, September 6th
Mia(OH) @ Mich (Mia is 0-4 all time vs. Mich)
Conn @ Tem (Temple lost by just 5 points last year due to a bad call)
CM @ UGA (CM is 0-6 vs. the SEC)
Kent St. @ Iowa St. (Kent St. won 23-14 last year at Iowa St.)
Minnesota @ BG (Last year BG won 32-31 in OT at Minn)
Ohio @ Ohio St. (Ohio is 0-5 vs. Ohio State)

Sat, September 13th
Tem @ Buff (Battle of two newest MAC teams; Buff 11-1 all time vs. Tem)

Sat, September 20th
Mia(OH) @ Cin (113th Battle for the Victory Bell)
CM @ Pur (CM is 0-15 vs. Big Ten since 1993)
Ball St. @ Ind (BSU is 0-19 vs. the Big Ten)

Sat, October 4th
NIU @ Tenn (NIU is 1-8 vs. the SEC)

Sat, October 11th
Tol @ Mich (Tol is 4-12 vs. the Big Ten)

Sat, October 18th
Mia(OH) @ BG (Could be huge game in the East)
WM @ CM (Should be the biggest game in the West in 2008)

Sat, November 1st
CM @ Ind (CM is 0-3 vs. Ind)
EM @ WM (WM has won 13 of last 16)

Sat, November 8th
Ill vs. WM (Game played in Detroit)

Wed, November 19th
Ball St. @ CM (Could be big game in the West)

Tue, November 25th
WM @ Ball St. (Could determine which team goes to a bowl)

Fri, November 28th
CM @ EM (3 of last 4 have gone to OT)

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