Monday, August 18, 2008

The College Football Blog: Independents Preview and Predictions


Independents
Bowl Teams: 0

Forecast: Once upon a time there were many independents but the number has dwindled to four, and really there are only 3. Western Kentucky is now a member of the Sun Belt but games against WK don’t count as conference games for the other teams in the SBC so they might as well still be independent. Last season ND was not the best independent in the country, which is pathetic. This year I expect the independents to be even worse than last year, as I predict ND to be only a bit improved and Navy to fall off considerably. There’s really no need for any team to be independent. WK is moving to the SBC, and Army would be a perfect fit as the 14th MAC team. They need a 14th team, and Army would be able to compete against those teams. Navy would likely be squashed in the Big East but they might be a power in the SBC. Notre Dame should be unilaterally forced to move to the Big Ten, which really has 11 teams.

Predicted Standings (Note: (#,#) = conference rec; #,# = regular season rec; [#,#] = final rec)

1. Notre Dame 5-7
2. Navy 4-8
3. Western Kentucky 4-8
4. Army 3-9



Team Notes and Predictions

Notre Dame 5-7
Finish Among Independents: 1st
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Look, I understand that ND will be improved, and that they have been recruiting like mad, but I don’t see it all coming in one year. They were 3-9 last year with wins over only a crippled UCLA team, Duke at home, and Stanford. They have a lot of cupcakes on the schedule as always this season and they should be able to get bowl eligible but I’m predicting that they’ll somehow find a way to finish with a losing record for a second straight year.



Navy 4-8
Finish Among Independents: Tied 2nd
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Paul Johnson turned Navy into a team to be reckoned with but now he is gone. Navy should be better defensively but they lose some key offensive players. I see them beating Army but losing Air Force and staying home for bowl season for the first time since 2002.



Western Kentucky 4-8
Finish Among Independents: Tied 2nd
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: WK is in their second year as a transitioning FBS team and this year they go from playing 6 FBS teams to playing 10. As a result I look for a drop off in their number of victories. I think they’ll be competitive and go 3-2 against SBC teams but drop to 4-8 overall.



Army 3-9
Finish Among Independents: 4th
Bowl Game: None
Forecast: Army should be a little bit better in Stan Brock’s second year but not that much better. They have an easier schedule but they return just 8 starters. I see them losing to both Navy and Army again and going 3-9 for the third straight season.



Big Games on the Schedule

Fri, August 29th
Tem @ Army (Army is 4-1 vs. Tem)

Sat, August 30th
WK @ Ind (WK is 0-1 vs. the Big Ten)

Sat, September 13th
Navy @ Duke (Navy has won 4 straight vs. Duke)
Mich @ ND (ND is 14-20-1 all-time vs. Mich)

Sat, September 20th
ND @ Mich St. (7 of the last 8 have been decided by single digits)
Rut @ Navy (Navy is 1-6 vs. Rut)

Sat, September 27th
WK @ Kentucky (First ever meeting between schools 150 miles apart)

Sat, October 4th
Navy @ AF (Navy has won 5 straight)

Sat, October 25th
ND @ Wash (Coach Ty gets his second shot at ex-team)

Sat, November 1st
AF @ Army (Army has lost 17 of 19 to AF)

Sat, November 8th
ND @ BC (ND has lost 6 of 7)

Sat, November 15th
ND vs. Navy (Navy’s win snapped a 43 game losing streak against ND)

Sat, November 29th
ND @ USC (ND has lost 6 straight)

Sat, December 6th
Navy vs. Army (Navy has won 6 straight)

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