I haven’t done an MLB Blog since the All-Star Break, mainly because the Braves have been so terrible it has taken the fun out of it for me. But it’s time to move on because there are a lot of very interesting things going on in baseball right now, and I’ve got to write about them now before football takes over our world.
The Power is Still Out
I thought that as the summer went on the home runs would pick up, and they did for a while, but the home run numbers have dropped off again in August. However, homers are still coming much more frequently than they were in April and May. But as far as individual power numbers are concerned, the leaders have slowed down again and it’s starting to look like this could be one of the weakest years for home run leaders in a while. Carlos Quentin is currently the Major League leader in homers with 35 and he’s on pace to lead the Majors with 45. He’s the only Major Leaguer currently on pace to hit 45 bombs. This looks like it will be the first year since 2004 that no Major Leaguer hits 50 homers, and if there is only one player with as many as 45 homers it will be the first time less than 2 players hit at least 45 homers since the strike shortened seasons of 1995 and 1994. Only one player hit as many as 45 homers in those two shortened seasons, but the last time less than 2 players hit as many as 45 homers in a full season was 1992. No one hit 45 homers that year, and you’d have to think there’s a decent chance that will happen this season. At least 4 players have hit 45 or more in each season since only 3 hit 45 in 1997. If 45 ends up leading the Majors it will be the lowest number of homers for a leader since Matt Williams hit 43 in the strike shortened 1994 season, and the lowest in a full season since Juan Gonzalez led with 43 in 1992.
There are 5 players currently on pace to hit at least 40 homers. That’s the same number of players that hit 40 last season which was the lowest number since only 4 hit 40 in 1995 (strike shortened) and the lowest in a full season since only 5 hit 40 in 1993. One of the players currently on pace to hit 40 is Ryan Braun, who has 31 homers, but is injured and has only batted 11 times since August 9th. If only 4 players hit 40 homers it will be the lowest total in a full season since 1992 when only 2 players did it. But even though the guys at the very top aren’t hitting as many homers as usual, there are still a lot of guys putting up high home run totals. Right now there are 35 MLB players on pace to hit at least 30 homers. Now certainly there could be some changes, but if 35 players hit 30 or more homers it will be 9 more than last season and the highest total since 2004.
As you might imagine, the numbers for the leaders in Slugging Percentage are down as well, but I was surprised at how much. Milton Bradley currently leads the AL in Slugging at .589. If he were to lead the AL with a .589 Slugging PCT it would be the first time a player led the AL in Slugging with a percentage less than .600 since Mark McGwire did it Slugging .585 in 1992. Albert Pujols leads the NL with a .613 Slugging PCT. If he finished the season leading the NL Slugging .613 he would be the first player to lead the NL in Slugging with a percentage less than .620 since Will Clark led the NL with a .536 SLG PCT in 1991. A-Pu would also be the first player to lead the Majors in Slugging with a SLG PCT less than .620 since Danny Tartabull led the ML with a .593 Slugging Percentage in 1991. One guy who is not getting much attention this year but is having a solid season is Brian Roberts. He currently leads the Majors with 45 doubles and is on pace for 58. That would be the highest number of doubles in one season for an AL player since Charlie Gehringer hit 60 in 1936. That same year, Joe Medwick hit 64 doubles in the National League, and no player in the Majors has hit as many as 60 doubles in a year since then.
Pitching Not so Dominant
There are still a number of starting pitchers having good seasons and a few having excellent seasons, but there aren’t as many with super numbers as there were at the All-Star Break. There are still 10 qualified pitchers with ERA’s under 3.00. The last time more than 9 pitchers finished with ERA’s under 3.00 was in 1997 when 13 did so. Only 3 pitchers have finished with ERA’s under 3.00 in the previous 2 years combined. No pitcher has an ERA under 2.00 now and only 1 has an ERA under 2.50 (Cliff Lee, 2.43). Still, no pitcher has finished with an ERA under 2.50 in either of the last 2 seasons. At the All-Star Break, 6 pitchers had a WHIP under 1.05, and 2 of those had a WHIP under 1.00. Now only 2 have WHIP’s under 1.05 and no one has a WHIP below 1.00. There are 2 pitchers with 8 Complete Games: Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia. No pitcher has thrown as many as 9 CG in a season since 2004 and if either of them gets to 10 CG he will be the first pitcher with double digits in Complete Games since 1999. Halladay and Sabathia each have more CG than 27 of the 30 teams in the MLB; naturally, the 3 teams that they don’t have more than are the Blue Jays, Indians, and Brewers; the 3 teams that they have pitched for in 2008.
Over the last 2 seasons, only 1 pitcher has won 20 games in a season and no pitcher has won more than 20 games in a season. Currently there are 4 pitchers on pace for 20 wins and 2 are on pace for more than 20. Cliff Lee is 18-2 and on pace to lead the AL with 23 wins. He would be the first AL pitcher to win more than 22 games since 2002. Brandon Webb is 19-4 and on pace to lead the NL with 24 wins. He would be the first NL pitcher to win more than 22 games since 2002 and the first pitcher in the Majors to win 24 games since 2002.
Super Saver
In 1990, Bobby Thigpen set a Major League record for Saves in one season with 57 for the Chicago White Sox, shattering the previous record of 46 held by Dave Righetti. The record has been approached but never matched since then. Francisco Rodriguez has a good shot at doing so this season. K-Rod is currently stuck at 48 Saves--13 more than any other pitcher in the ML--and is on pace to save 62. When he gets to 50 he will be the first pitcher to do so since 2004. If he gets to 55 Saves he will be the first pitcher to do so since 2003, and the first AL pitcher to get there since Thigpen. No one else in the ML is on pace for as many as 45 Saves. If K-Rod is the only pitcher to reach at least 45 Saves, this will be the first year since 2000 that only 1 pitcher saves as many as 45 games.
Approaching the 200 K Barrier
2008 has got to be the year that a batter finally accomplishes what was once unthinkable and strikes out 200 times in 1 season. In 1970, Bobby Bonds broke his own record for strikeouts in a season by striking out 193 times. That number stood as the ML record for 34 seasons, until Adam Dunn went down on strikes 195 times in 2004. Last season Ryan Howard eclipsed Dunn and came as close as possible to the magical 200 mark without hitting it, fanning 199 times in a single season. This year Howard is at it again, already fanning 167 times on the season. He is on pace to not only reach the 200 K mark, but fly past it with 213. Now, it’s long been common practice for managers to take steps to protect players from reaching unflattering records or milestones but if the Phillies are still in the race they are going to have to have Howard in the lineup everyday. I don’t see how he can avoid getting to 200 this time. Over in the AL, Jack Cust is on top of the whiff leader board with 159. He’s just 5 away from his total number of strikeouts last year, 154, which led the AL! Cust is on pace to fan 207 times, which would shatter the AL record of 186 set by Robb Deer in 1987. Mark Reynolds of the D-Backs is also putting up some awesome strikeout numbers. He’s already fanned 157 times and is on pace to K 203 times. At least one of these guys has just got to reach 200. Incidentally, 200 K would be 4 more than Joe DiMaggio had in 7 full seasons combined before the War.
The Races
AL East
The Rays probably deserve their own column or maybe even a book or something. What they have done is nothing short of mythical. They are the Miracle Mets of 1969 reborn. Tampa Bay is currently tied for the best record in the American League at 77-49 (.611). They are on pace to win 99 games. The Rays are 4.5 up on the Red Sox and 10.5 games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East. Many people are familiar with the “Playoff Odds” that have become popular in the last few years. Well, the Rays now have a 91.0% chance of making it to the postseason. The postseason! Okay, maybe that’s not quite as incredible as them being on pace for 99 wins but I just can’t believe they are actually going to make it all the way through and get into the postseason. And you know what that means. If you get in it; you can win it. But never mind that for now. They are on top of the most locked down division in pro sports and it’s August 22nd! How can this have happened? Last season the Rays (or Devil Rays) went 66-96 in their 10th year of existence. It was their 10th straight season with at least 91 losses. Their best season before this year was in 2004 when they went 70-91 and finished 4th in the East. That was the only year in their 10 season history that they did not finish last in the AL East. In their first 10 seasons, the Rays lost 99 games or more 5 times, including 3 seasons of at least 100 losses. Going into this season they had lost at least 95 games in 3 straight years and 6 of 7. In 9 of their 10 seasons since they were born in 1998 the Rays have finished at least 29 games out of 1st. The only exception was in 2000 when they went 69-92 to finish last in the East, 18 games out of 1st. This franchise has had young talent for years but it seemed like they could never change the outcome on the field and you wondered if they would ever succeed. They are starting to get more people at games but attendance is still low, despite their miraculous season. Only Kansas City has drawn less fans than Tampa in the AL, and only the Pirates and Marlins have drawn less out of the NL teams. I realize that the big jump in ticket sales usually comes the year after a breakout season, but there should be way more people there than there are.
What makes all that the Rays are doing even more ridiculous is the fact that they are going to make the postseason in a division that contains the two giants of the sport. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are in a different ballpark than the rest of baseball as far as spending money and energy to win. The Yankees have been to the postseason in each of the last 13 seasons, and the Sox have joined them there in 7 of them. The only other team to make the postseason out of the AL East since 1995 was the Orioles in 1996 and 1997. Since 1996, the Yanks and Sox have combined to win 6 World Series Championships and 8 AL Pennants. Going into this season, I’d have to imagine that the odds of the Rays making the postseason were not very good. But what would have been considered less likely: the Rays making the playoffs, or the Yanks and Sox both missing the postseason? It could happen. The Sox are currently 73-54 and in 2nd place in the East, 4.5 games behind the Rays. They are tied with the Twins atop the Wild Card Standings. Right now their playoff odds are 71.6% but they are hurting. But the Red Sox are sitting pretty compared to the Yankees. The Yanks are dead. They’re 67-60 but that’s only good enough for 3rd place in the East and 10.5 behind the Rays. They are in 3rd place in the Wild Card standings, 6 games behind the Red Sox and Twins. New York’s playoff odds are down to a paltry 3.9%. It appears that the Yankees will finish with a winning record for the 16th consecutive season, but their streak of 13 straight playoff appearances will almost certainly end. In addition, they are most likely going to finish out of the top 2 in the NL East for the first time since 1992, ending a streak of 15 straight finishes in 1st or 2nd place in the NL East. Actually, the Yankees may not even finish in 3rd place. Just a game behind them are the Blue Jays at 66-61, who appear destined to miss the postseason yet again, despite finishing with a winning record for the 7th time in 11 years. The Jays are in 4th in the Wild Card standings, 7 games behind Boston and Minnesota. Baltimore has really impressed me this season. I thought they would be the worst team in the AL. They are still going to have a losing season for the 11 consecutive year, but 61-65 is better than 11 times in the Majors.
AL Central
You could have also gotten long odds on neither the Indians nor the Tigers reaching the postseason, but that looks to be almost 100% certain to happen. The White Sox have turned things around this year after losing 90 games last season. They are currently 73-53 (.579), on pace for about 94 wins, and percentage points ahead of the Twins in 1st place in the Central. Minnesota is once again defying all logic this year by winning without ownership really trying to. They are 73-54, just a half game behind the White Sox, and tied with the Red Sox for 1st in the WC standings. This battle should go down to the end. Cleveland is long gone and Detroit has faded into irrelevance in the last couple of weeks. The Tigers are now 62-65 and 11.5 games out of 1st; the Indians are 59-67 and 14 games out of 1st place. For the Royals, it’s just another season that never was. They’re 55-72 in last place in the Central.
AL West
This one is over. The Angels are tied with the Rays for the best record in the League at 77-49 (.611) and on pace for 99 wins and they are 15 games up in the West. Their playoff odds are 99.9%. Texas is 63-65 which isn’t all that horrible but they could be the first AL 2nd place team to finish 15 games out of 1st since 1999. When the A’s figured out they weren’t going to be good enough to make the postseason they gave up again and they are now just 58-69. So even though they started 51-42, they are going to end up being as bad as expected. Seattle has had a hideous season that just won’t end. They are 46-81 (.362) and 31.5 games out of 1st place in the West. They are on pace to drop 103 games in 2008.
NL East
Those two east coast powers the Phillies and the Mets continue to confuse. For the first 4/5 of last season, the Mets looked like the best team in the NL and the Phillies looked like pretenders. Then the Mets gagged in historic fashion and the Phils suddenly came together and grabbed the division title away from them. This season the Phils looked like the real deal for the first few months while the Mets appeared to still be feeling the effects of last year’s collapse. The Mets looked hopeless, even after they finally cut Willie Randolph’s head off. Then their starting pitchers got rolling, their hitters that were thought washed up or psyched out came back to life, and they became a team with life again. While the Mets have been winning, the Phils mighty bats have gone cold for more than a little while now, and suddenly they look like the team that could never quite put it together until last season. The Mets are in 1st place in the East at 71-57 (.555) and on pace to win 90 games. They hold a 2.5 game lead on the Phils, who are now 68-59. Philly is 3rd in the WC standings, 4.5 behind the Brewers. Their playoff odds are at 31.3%. The Marlins have hung in for longer than expected, as they have done numerous times in the past, but it looks as though they are finally bidding goodnight to the race. They’re now just 2 games over .500 at 65-63 and 6 games out of 1st in 3rd place in the East. They are in 5th place in the WC standings, 8 back of the Brewers. Their playoff odds are down to 3.6%. The Braves are done for in 2008, sitting at 56-72, 15 games out of 1st. But they’re still way better than the Nationals, who are the worst team in the Biz this year. The Go-nats are 45-83 (.352) and 26 games out of 1st place. They’re on pace to lose 105 games. Before leaving any discussion about the NL East, we must remember that after 128 games last season, the Mets had the best record in the NL at 73-55 and were in 1st place in the East, 7 games ahead of the Phillies and Braves.
NL Central
Until recently the top 3 teams in the NL all resided in the Central. The Cubbies have been the best team in the NL most of the season and are currently 78-49 (.614), easily the best record in the League. They have stretched their lead in the division to 5.5 games and their playoff odds are a hefty 98.8%. It appears that the Cubs will finally reach the postseason in back to back years for the first time since making 3 consecutive World Series from 1906 to 1908. Ahh, only 100 years, no big deal. They're on pace for 99 wins and if they can get to 100 it will be their first 100 win season since 1910. The Brewers are having another fine season at 73-55 but at this point they really need to go ahead and make the postseason. They are 5.5 behind the Cubbies but they’re on top in the WC standings, holding a 2.5 game. If they miss out on the playoffs they will still enjoy back to back winning seasons for the first time since 91-92, but it’s really time for them to make it to the postseason for the first time since 1982. Back then the Brewers were in the American League, and they played in the World Series that year and lost to the St. Louis Cardinals. Nowadays the two are division foes, and the Cards have been one of the many surprise teams this season. They’ve hung in all year and are still 13 games over .500 at 71-58 but they’re now 8 games out of 1st place. They are in 2nd place in the WC standings, 2.5 behind the Brew Crew. The Houston Astros aren’t going to the postseason but they have turned their season from an awful one to one that brings hope for the future. Houston is a game over .500 at 64-63. They are 6th in the WC standings and 8.5 out which will be a tough row to hoe but what they’ve been able to do even with Carlos Lee on the shelf has been impressive. The bottom third of the Central is made up of 2 of the most uncompetitive franchises in the game. In 5th place in the Central are those Pittsburgh Pirates. At 57-70 they are on pace to lose 89 games in what will be their 16th straight losing season. The Reds are right behind them in last at 56-72, headed for an 8th straight losing season.
NL West
It wasn’t that long ago we were thinking that the winner of the West might not even have a winning record. Now whichever team wins the division between the D-Backs and Dodgers will have a legitimate shot to get to the World Series. I picked the D-Backs to win the World Series because I thought they’d get to the postseason and once in the postseason I thought they’d be the most formidable. I still think so. They’re now 67-60 and 2 games ahead in the division. They’re on pace for just 86 wins, but once you get in it doesn’t much matter. Ignited by the stunning acquisition of Manny Ramirez, the Dodgers are now 65-62 and only 2 behind the Snakes. They’ve had chances to pull ahead but haven’t been able to do so. Still, at this point it appears they will at least make Arizona work for it. They don’t have much of a shot at the playoffs if they don’t win the West. LA is 4th in the WC standings and 7.5 behind the Brewers. The rest of the West is bunk. After a bizarre run to the World Series a year ago, it’s back to business as usual in Colorado where the Rockies are 59-70. San Fran is just 55-72 but they’ve done better than I would have imagined, playing with what amounts to a minor league level lineup. And speaking of minor league level, the San Diego Padres have gone from a perennial postseason contender, to a push over with only 3 more wins than the Nationals. They are a horrendous 48-79, on pace for 101 losses, and 19 games back in last place in the weakest division in baseball.
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