Sifting Through the Rubble
Unfortunately, the combination of cheap ownership, some questionable organizational decisions, and some awful luck, the Braves are in a very bad place as a franchise right now. They have no chance of competing in the present, but they don’t really have much hope for the near future either. Not only that, there’s not really all that much the Braves can do to improve the situation at the moment. There aren’t a lot of pieces that the Braves could trade off for prospects. The Brave have missed the postseason in the last two years, but this is the first year they’ve been out of it before late September. Teams that are out of it in August are supposed to be comforted by thoughts of next year. If you’re a Braves fan I wouldn’t recommend looking towards next year right now. What the Hell, let’s take a peek at the days of misery ahead just to get an idea for what’s coming. Here’s a look at what the Braves have now and what they may have next season.
Starting Pitchers: Jair Jurrjens has been very impressive in his first full season and you just have to hope he continues to get better. Jorge Campillo has not yet been exposed as a fluke. Still, he could quite possibly end up being a 1 year wonder, meaning the League could figure him out in his second year as a starter. Charlie Morton, Jo Jo Reyes, and Chuck James have yet to prove that they have what it takes to be a starter in the MLB. Sure they have had some bright moments, but they’ve been inconsistent and had more bad moments than good ones. James especially doesn’t appear to be of MLB caliber. Tim Hudson is gone at least until the very end of next year. There is some talk that he could be back next August but I think that is really, really optimistic. My guess is that his career with the Braves is basically over, as he will be a free agent after next year. Tom Glavine’s elbow injury didn’t turn out to be as severe as some feared it would be. It seems like that’s the first bit of good news the Braves have gotten injury wise all season. Still, Glavine said it’s 50-50 whether he pitches next year or not. He’s not under contract for next year but if he wants to pitch and the Braves want him, he’ll be in Atlanta. The question then would be whether or not he would continue to break down next year, as he did throughout this season. John Smoltz is a long shot to return and even if he does it wouldn’t seem likely that his arm would hold up for long. Strangely, those 3 veterans (Hudson, Glavine, Smoltz) are all out for the season and Mike Hampton is completely healthy at the moment. Hampton will be a free agent and maybe the Braves will be able to sign him for cheap but you’d have to assume that he’ll get injured at least once or twice between now and opening day next season, and then at least once or twice more after opening day. So you have 5 young starters, only 1 of whom is definitely a guy capable of being a solid starter for years to come, and 4 veteran pitchers who are all serious injury risks, and 1 of them won’t be back until August at the earliest.
Relief Pitchers: The Braves bullpen is a mess. Mike Gonzalez should be a weapon as long as he stays healthy, but there’s not much after him. Rafael Soriano continues to have elbow problems and he appears to be a head case. Peter Moylan has missed virtually the entire season after having Tommy John surgery. He’s going to recover obviously but who knows when he’ll be ready and what kind of set backs he may have. You also don’t know whether he’ll be successful, as he’s played basically one year in the big leagues. Will Ohman is a free agent this winter and will almost certainly sign elsewhere. Blaine Boyer had arm injuries in each of the 2 years prior to this season, and he is on pace to make 82 appearances in 2008. That kind of overuse could lead to problems next year. In fact, I’d be surprised if Boyer isn’t either hurt or ineffective next season. Manny Acosta is currently on the DL with a hamstring injury and has had a disappointing season, but he could bounce back in his second full season. There are worse guys to have than Buddy Carlyle. Jeff Bennett is only worth having around if you don’t have 7 or 8 better options. Julian Tavarez isn’t worth bringing back at this point. No one else in the Braves pen is worth having on a Major League roster.
Catchers and Corner Infielders: Don’t think the Braves will overcome or cancel out their pitching problems by scoring a lot of runs. The Braves don’t have much going for them offensively. They have only two better-than-decent offensive players: Brian McCann and Chipper Jones. Both are great hitters but Chipper just can’t stay healthy. He is guaranteed a trip to the DL and even when he isn’t on the DL he’s often being hampered by an injury or missing a game here or there due to an injury or being limited to pinch hit duties due to some injury. He misses so much time it’s really like having ¾ of a Chipper Jones. When he’s out of the lineup it devastates the team. Brian McCann is the Braves only great young player. But it’s not ideal to depend so heavily on a catcher for offense. He’s bound to get injured, he’s bound to wear down at the end of the season, and his ability is bound to decrease at an earlier age than other position players. I doubt the Braves have given any thought to moving him to first base. That rarely seems to work and pitchers love working with him, but he isn’t a great defensive catcher. I don’t know if Mac could even play first base but it might save his body. At the moment, I’m not sure the Braves have all that much at first base with Casey Kotchman. Ideally, you’d like your first baseman to be a slugger because the corner infield and corner outfield positions are normally where you get your power from. If your first baseman isn’t a 30+ homer guy then you want him to be a doubles and on-base guy that doesn’t strike out and is a good fielder. Kotchman is never going to be a major power hitter and I’m not convinced he’s really the other top of starting first baseman either. He makes contact and he’s a good fielder but he hasn’t been a guy that takes a lot of walks or hits with that much gap power. This is his first full season as an everyday player. Last year he played in 137 of 162 games but only started 116. This year he has already played in 120 games and started 114 of them. So far he has had 443 at bats which is exactly the number of at bats he had all of last season. But while he batted .296/.372/.467 (average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) last year, he has hit .266/.315/411 this season. A .266 average at first base is only acceptable if the first baseman also hits 30 homers; Kotchman has 12. A .315 OBP is never acceptable and it’s horrible if you’re also Slugging .411. His .839 OPS last year was solid; his .726 OPS this year is not. I’ll grant you that his slow start with Atlanta is probably partly due to him being uncomfortable or feeling pressure to perform or things of that nature. But even before his dreadful 11 for 70 in his first 25 games with the Braves, he had gone 25 for 100 with 1 BB in his last 20 games with the Angels. His OBP in 100 games with Anaheim this year was just .327 and his OPS was .775, so he was performing at a below average level even before the trade. He won’t be a free agent for a few more years and he was the main piece they got from the Angels in exchange for Tex, so the Braves probably plan on him being the starting first baseman in Atlanta for some time to come. I’m just not sure he’s better than an average offensive player. He first made it to the Majors in May of 2004 at the age of 21 and he’s played part of every season since in the Majors. He’ll be 26 next season and hopefully he’ll at least be more like the hitter he was in 2007.
Middle Infielders: The middle infield looked like an area of strength for the Braves going into this season but at this point it looks like another weakness. Yunel Escobar may be greatly limited by the shoulder injury he is dealing with. At this point I think we’d better hope that’s the reason for his pedestrian numbers with the bat this season. He appears to be a very limited player offensively right now. He is Slugging just .391. His .358 OBP is solid but not if he’s only going to Slug .391. He has just 2 SB in 7 Attempts, has only 7 homers, and has hit into 17 double plays. Additionally, while his passion and emotion is refreshing at times, there are other times when his personality is a negative, such as trying to make a flashy play for no reason or not taking an intelligent approach to the plate. He’ll also be 26 in November and thus he’s unlikely to get all that much better than he is right now. Second baseman Kelly Johnson has been a disappointment. He has just 2 triples and 9 homers, has only 10 SB and has struckout 90 times, while posting a .331 OBP. He is also 26 and it appears that this is all there is to Kelly Johnson. He’s a free swinger without much power or speed and he goes through drastic streaks of hot and cold hitting, with the cold streaks outdoing the hot streaks. He’s also not very good at second base. Martin Prado has played in just 47 games and had only 108 AB’s but he has played very well when given the chance. Prado doesn’t have homerun power or speed but he’s a decent hitter and a good fielder. He’s definitely worth having as a backup middle infielder. Many would disagree with this, but because of Kelly Johnson’s streakiness, I’d really rather have Prado in there if I had to choose between the two of them. Omar Infante is a middle infielder by trade but has played all over the field this season and that’s really what makes him valuable. He’s not a very good defender but he’s solid at the plate. You don’t want him playing anywhere every day but he’s not a bad guy to have starting in place of an injured starter for a week or two. And he’s definitely valuable off the bench. Ruben Gotay is only valuable as a pinch hitter and I’d really be shocked if the Braves brought him back.
Outfielders: The outfield is also full of question marks. Matt Diaz struggled mightily in 42 games before injuring his knee on May 27th. He has yet to return from the injury. At this point, it’s clear that Diaz is a part time player and that’s it. He’s really only strong against left handed pitching and he’s not a good outfielder. He also doesn’t have much power, especially for a corner outfielder that isn’t a good defender and doesn’t steal bases. Gregor Blanco has been tolerable in his first year in the big leagues. The positives have been a good eye at the plate and an ability to work counts and take walks. He’s also proven to be an excellent bunter. On the down side, he has zero power and he’s hitting .257. Also, while he has very good speed, he isn’t a good base stealer. He has only 11 steals and has been caught 4 times, and even in the minors he was only successful in 68% of SB attempts. Blanco is also only an average defensive outfielder. Greg Norton has also played some left field this year but obviously he’s a bench player. He’s a solid pinch hitter but he’s 36 and I don’t know if the Braves will bring him back. Mark Kotsay has been okay in his first year as the center fielder in Atlanta. He missed time due to his back acting up again and that has to be a concern going forward. Also, while he has hit .293, his OBP is only .340 and he has Slugged just .421 with 6 homers. He has a good arm but his range in center is very limited. In my opinion, Kotsay is a guy you can have in your everyday lineup if the rest of the lineup is strong, but he’s really more of a 4th outfielder type. The Braves seem to want Kotsay back but he has said that he would only want to resign with Atlanta if he knows he will be an everyday player. Bringing Kotsay back as the everyday center fielder wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but it’s not a great plan if you ask me. Then there’s right field where Jeff Francoeur has had a disastrous season. At this point, what can you really do other than hope that this season is an aberration? You wanted Francoeur to take some big steps forward this season; instead he has taken an unimaginable step backward. His numbers are atrocious. He’s currently batting .228 with a .285 OBP and Slugging .351 for a .636 OPS. He has just 10 homers and has hit into 13 double plays. He’s on pace to for 69 runs, 138 hits, 31 doubles, 3 triples, 13 homers, 70 RBI, 40 BB, 111 K, and 0 SB in 606 AB! Yikes. It’s not just that he’s having a bad year: he’s having the worst year of any right fielder in the NL. Among qualified NL right fielders, Francoeur is last in average, OBP, Slugging, and OPS. He’s last among qualified NL right fielders in Pitches per PA, 9th in BB per PA, and 8th in BB per K. Among all NL right fielders, Francoeur has the 7th most strikeouts and tied for the most GDP. He’s tied 10th among NL right fielders in Extra Base Hits, tied 10th in Total Bases, tied 10th in Hits, 8th in Doubles, 10th in Runs, tied 10th in Triples, tied 11th in HR, tied 7th in RBI, 12th in BB, and tied for 26th in SB. That’s all despite having the 3rd most at bats of any NL right fielder. He won’t be a free agent for a few more years, and hopefully he will at least become a solid player, even if he never does turn into the type of player many thought he would become. Right now, if he could just be an average player it would be a big help.
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