I haven’t done the Braves Blog in a while, for obvious reasons. It’s been tough to watch and there’s little good to write about, plus I figured people would be feeling similarly about reading anything concerning the Braves. However, I realized that I’ve been neglecting the subject and in case there are people checking in to read about and discuss the Braves, I decided I’d better address the issue.
There have been a number of steps along the way to where the Braves are currently, but they got to rock bottom quicker than I ever thought they could. Due to a combination of budget restrictions, some poor decisions, poor performance, and probably the worst rash of injuries incurred by any Braves team in the last 20 years, the present state of the Atlanta Braves is downright abysmal. They are easily the worst they have been since before the Miracle Season of 1991. The worst thing about the season right now is that there is so much of it left. The Braves are quickly running out of things to play for, and as bad as things are right now, they could get a lot uglier before the 2008 regular season is over.
As I write this, the Braves have 72 losses on August 21st and they have 34 games left. From 1991-2005, the Braves lost more than 68 games in a season twice, lost more than 72 games once, and never lost more than 74 games in a season. The Braves have played 128 games so far in 2008 and they are 16 games under .500 at 56-72 (.438). The Braves have finished the season with a winning record in 16 of the last 17 seasons. In order to finish with a winning record this year, at 82-80, the Braves would have to go 26-8 the rest of the way. So that one seems out of the realm of possibility. They’d have to go 25-9 just to get to .500 at 81-81. In 2006, the Braves finished 4 games under .500 at 79-83 for their only losing season in the last 17 years. In order to finish this year 79-83, the Braves would have to go 23-11 the rest of the way. That looks to be out of the question as well. What about 75 wins? A 75-87 season isn’t horrible. The Braves would have to go 19-15 the rest of the way just to get to that modest mark. Right now that seems impossible too. It would be nice to avoid a 90 loss season. From 1975 to 1990, the Braves lost at least 90 games in 10 of 16 seasons. To finish the year 73-89, the Braves would have to go 17-17 the rest of the way. At this point I don’t think that’s at all likely. I can’t believe it’s gotten to this point but playing .500 over the final 34 games would be a very impressive feat for this team. The worst fear would be a 100 loss season. Those seasons have been rare, even in the lean years of Atlanta baseball. In their 42 seasons in Atlanta, the Braves have lost 100 games just twice; losing 101 in 1977, and losing 106 games in 1988 (and they actually only played 160 games that year so it could have been worse!). For the Braves to finish 63-99 and avoid a 100 loss season, they must go at least 7-27 the rest of the way.
It would seem that winning 7 of their last 34 games would be a guarantee but it’s not an airtight lock. I don’t think there are a lot of wins left out there for the Braves to get in the last 6 weeks of the season. They’ve currently lost 5 straight and 10 of 11. Lately, the Braves haven’t even been competitive in 1 of every 3 games. In their last 24 games, the Braves have lost by 5 or more runs 8 times, or 1 in every 3 games. That’s after only losing by 5 or more runs 14 times in their first 104 games, or 1 of every 7.4 games. And the Braves are still having trouble in close games as well. In their last 26 games, the Braves are 1-7 in games decided by 2 runs or less. Also, the Braves have a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way. They play 18 of their last 34 games on the road where they are 22-41 (.349) this season. Their road record ranks 27th out of 30 MLB teams this year. And the Braves are facing mostly good teams the rest of the way. 24 of the Braves final 34 games are against teams with winning records. The 10 games against teams with losing records are against the Nationals and Rockies. The Braves have 3 home games against Colorado, who is bad on the road, but is 19-13 since the All-Star Break. The Braves have 3 games on the road and 4 games at home with Washington. You might think 7 games against the worst team in baseball is a good thing, but the Braves are only 4-7against the Nats this season, and 2-4 in Washington.
The Braves are currently in 4th place, 15 games out of 1st, and it appears they will stay in 4th the rest of the way. They are 12.5 games out of 2nd, and 9 games out of 3rd, so it appears their streak of 17 straight seasons finishing in the top 3 in the division is over. But they are still 11 games ahead of the Nationals so they should avoid the cellar for the 18th year in a row. Still, the Braves are tied for 9th place in the Wild Card Standings, 17 games out. They are tied for the 12th best record in the NL out of 16 teams, and tied for the 24th best record in the ML out of 30 teams. From 1991 to 2005, the Braves finished with the best record in the NL 9 times, finished with the 2nd best record 4 times, tied for the 2nd best record once and finished tied for the 5th best record once. In the past 17 years, the Braves have always had at least the 8th best record in the NL and at least the 17th best record in the Majors. It looks like those records of consistency will not be extended.
The Braves performance in 1 run games—particularly on the road—continues to be a source of embarrassment. The Braves are now 6-25 (.194) in games decided by 1 run. That is by far the worst record in 1 run games in the Majors. San Diego and Seattle are tied for the next worst winning percentage in 1 run games and they are both 13-24 (.351). Basically, if the Braves won their next 7 games by 1 run they would still have the worst record in 1 run games in all of baseball! Their 6 one run wins is the lowest in the Majors; Cleveland is the next worst with only 9 wins by 1 run; the other 28 MLB teams all have at least 12 wins by 1 run, double what the Braves have! Their 25 losses by 1 run is the 2nd most in the MLB; Washington has the most 1 run losses in baseball with 26, but of course Washington also has 16 wins by 1 run, 10 more than the Braves! The Braves have been particularly bad in 1 run games on the road. They are a stunning 0-20 in 1 run games on the road this season and have lost a Major League record 27 straight 1 run road games going back to August 10th of last year! Oh, by the way, the Braves are 2-7 in extra inning games; the least amount of extra inning wins in the MLB and the worst winning percentage in extra inning games in the MLB.
Because of all of the injuries, some weak performances by a number of players, and the trade of Mark Teixeira, the Braves team leaders in a number of key stats could end up with some paltry looking stats. The Braves have had at least 1 player hit at least 30 homers in 13 of the last 17 seasons. Brian McCann is currently the Braves leading home run hitter with 21, and Mac’s on pace to finish with 27. I don’t think he’ll hit more than 25, however, as catching virtually ever day is starting to take a toll on him. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if September ended up being by far his worst month at the plate. The Braves have had at least 1 player drive in at least 100 runs in 15 of the last 17 seasons. Mark Teixeira is still the Braves RBI leader with 78 but I think it’s a safe bet that he won’t get any more RBI for the Braves this year. Mac is next with 72 RBI and is on pace to lead the team with 94 RBI. The lowest RBI total to lead the Braves in the last 17 years came in 1994, when Fred McGriff drove in 94 runs for the Braves, and that was in just 114 games, as the season was canceled in August due to the strike! The Braves have had at least 1 player score at least 100 runs in 14 of the last 17 seasons. Their highest run total in 1992 was 98, in the 114 game season of 1994 the highest total was 81, and in the 144 game season of 1995 the highest total was 87. Chipper has 67 runs and is on pace to lead the team with 90 runs scored. The Braves team leader in Stolen Bases has had at least 17 SB in each of the last 17 seasons. Gregor Blanco has 11 SB and is on pace to lead the team with 15 steals. The Braves have had at least 1 pitcher win 15 games in 16 of the last 17 seasons. Jair Jurrjens has 11 and is on pace to lead the team with 14 wins. John Smoltz and Tim Hudson led the team in 2005 with just 14 wins. The Braves have had at least 1 pitcher with at least 15 Saves in each of the last 17 seasons. Mike Gonzalez currently leads the team with 5 Saves.
Here are a few more awful stats to ponder. In the last 17 years, the Braves were never shutout more than 10 times in any season; this year they have already been shutout 13 times and they have 34 games left.Jeff Francoeur is currently tied for 136th in the Majors in Home Runs with 10 in 121 games played. Kelly Johnson has played in 117 games, and is tied for 155th in the Majors in Homers with 9. Willie Harris has 10 homers for the Nationals.
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