Week 1 Betting Lines
Each week for college football I’m going to give my picks on 10 spreads and pick a few underdogs to win outright. I generally use Bodog lines but if they don’t have a line for a certain game I will get the line from Covers.com.
Week 1 Preview: Betting the first week of college football is not easy because you’re basing so much of your selections on prior results and on your predictions of what teams will be like this season. Then again, it’s not like I get better at winning bets as the year goes on. So, here are my Week 1 betting predictions.
Thursday
Game 1: WF (-12.5) @ Baylor
Pick: Wake covers
Comment: My only reasoning here is that Baylor sucks.
Game 2: NC St. (+13.0) @ South Carolina
Pick: SC covers
Comment: SC has won 8 straight season openers by an average of 16 points.
Game 3: Oregon St. (-3) @ Stanford
Pick: Oregon St. covers
Comment: Every week there are a few spreads that just seem to be out of whack to me. There aren’t that many of these in Week 1 because no one has played a single game yet, but usually when I see a spread that doesn’t make sense it means Vegas knows something I don’t know. Still, I can’t help but think Oregon State should be more than a 3 point favorite over the Cardinal.
Saturday
Game 4: Akron (+26.5) @ Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin covers
Comment: There are a lot of things about this game that make me want to pick Akron. They only lost by 18 at Ohio State last year and Wisconsin only beat the Citadel by 14 points at home last year. But I think Akron will be among the 5 or 10 worst teams in the country this season, and with that in mind, 26.5 points is not a big spread.
Game 5: Hawaii (+35) @ Florida
Pick: Florida covers
Comment: At first I looked at this line and thought it seemed too big. But Florida has crushed its non-conference opponents lately, especially those from non-BCS conferences. Also, you have to look at Hawaii’s history before last season—when they had easily their best team ever—and before the last 2 years. This is a team returning just 4 starters on offense and 4 on defense, and also has a new head coach. Prior to 2006, despite being a very successful home team, the Warriors routinely got blown out on the road. I think this one could get ugly very quickly and could easily turn into a 63-21 type of game.
Game 6: USC (-20.0) @ UVA
Pick: USC covers
Comment: This is another one of those lines that just seems way too small to me.
Game 7: Arkansas St. (+20) @ Texas A&M
Pick: Arkansas St. beats spread
Comment: Arkansas State lost just 21-13 at Texas in last year’s opener.
Game 8: FIU (+36.0) @ Kansas
Pick: Kansas covers
Comment: I don’t expect Kansas to have as much success as they did last season but they should still be able to put 70 points on the likes of Florida International. The Jayhawks won last year’s contest, 55-3.
Game 9: ULM (+26.5) @ Auburn
Pick: ULM beats the spread
Comment: I no this might not jive with my prediction that Auburn will be one of the top teams in the country this season, but ULM beat Bama by 7 on the road last year, and Auburn is still learning a new offense with a new QB.
Game 10: Tenn (-7.5) @ UCLA
Pick: Tenn covers
Comment: UCLA is starting an inexperienced QB with only 9 returning starters and a new head coach.
Moneyline Specials
There aren’t many in Week 1 with so many lopsided matchups but here are a couple I’m predicting.
Vandy over Miami (Ohio): Vandy is actually a 4 point underdog in this game. I don’t expect Vandy to win a lot of games this year but I don’t think they’ll lose this one.
Kentucky over Louisville: The Cats are 3.5 point dogs. For this one I have no logical basis, just a hunch.
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