Last
Week: Vs. Spread: (5-9); Straight Up: (5-9)
Season:
Vs.
Spread: (50-39-2); Straight Up: (50-41)
Week
6 Review: Last week was definitely one of my worst weeks of
the year. On the other hand, it could have been worse considering some of the
surprises. At halftime of the Monday night game, it really looked like I was
going to finish 6-8, 6-8 (which sounds way better than 5-9, 5-9), but then the
Chargers imploded. But in the end, while my record was ugly last week, I feel
lucky that it wasn’t worse.
This is the sort of
thing that can happen at various points during the year, especially when
favorites go 6-8 straight up. I was lucky to go 5-9 ATS considering that I had
10 favorites covering the spread.
I also have the natural
pessimism of a lifelong Falcons fan, and this caused me to predict that their
game with the Raiders at home would be much closer than most people thought.
Week
7 Preview: I’m going to go ahead and say it: this
is easily going to be the worst week of the year for me. I’m not talking about
my predictions, although it could end up to be my worst week in that regard as
well. But I’m talking about my worst week in terms of my level of enjoyment.
It’s not that there
aren’t any good matchups this week; the entire slate is actually full of
interesting games, including good matchups on Thursday night, Sunday night, and
Monday night.
There are just 13 games
this week, with 6 teams taking their bye weeks. But to be honest, the real
problem with this week isn’t the number of games either.
The idle teams include
my team, but while it doesn’t help the situation, the fact that the Falcons
aren’t playing isn’t reason enough alone for this to be my least favorite week
of the year.
The reason week 7 will
be torturous for me is that Sunday’s scheduling is brutal. It’s downright
abusive.
There are 10 games
taking place on Sunday not including NBC’s game. For some reason, the NFL has
decided to start 8 of them at 1:00 and leave just 2 for the 4:00 PM time slot.
The two late games are both on CBS and only one is worth watching (New York
Jets at New England). The Pats/Jets game is usually an interesting one.
Unfortunately, Jacksonville at Oakland doesn’t figure to be much fun.
Those are the two
choices, making the NFL package virtually worthless during the late portion of
games this Sunday. Plus, even if you have my setup (two TV’s, 1 going from
game-to-game, the other on Red Zone) it’s tough to keep an eye on 8 games at
once.
Look, it isn’t hard to
figure out why the NFL is in this situation. Fox has the baseball playoffs on
Sunday, so they needed to have all of their games start at 1:00. CBS is under
no obligation (as far as I know) to alter their schedule in order to help
spread things out. It really isn’t a big deal I suppose, it’s just really,
really annoying.
I pay out the ass for
the NFL package for several reasons but there is one that outweighs everything
else combined: I hate commercials, especially during NFL games. The late game
portion of this week is going to be nearly as bad as not having the NFL
package.
And I pity the poor souls
who happen to fall within the sphere of coverage for Jacksonville-Oakland. In
fact, some of my neighbors may be left with that game and nothing else.
As for my picks, I’m
obviously hoping for a bounce back week. To be honest, I’m a little nervous.
When I looked at the games this week for some reason I just saw all favorites.
There are plenty of good matchups. In fact, only 1 spread is more than 7.5 this
week, and yet I’m not picking a single underdog to win straight up and I’m
taking 9 of 13 favorites ATS.
That wouldn’t have
worked out well last week. Then again, maybe we’ll get a correction this week
and things will fall heavily on the side of the favorites.
Thursday
Night’s Game
Seattle (+7.5) @ San
Francisco
Pick: Niners cover
Sunday’s
Early Games
Washington (+6) @ New
York Giants
Pick: Giants cover
Arizona (+6) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Dallas (-1) @ Carolina
Pick: Cowboys cover
New Orleans (-2.5) @
Tampa Bay
Pick: Saints cover
Green Bay (-5) @ St.
Louis
Pick: Packers cover
Baltimore (+6.5) @
Houston
Pick: Texans win but
Ravens beat the spread
Cleveland (+3) @
Indianapolis
Pick: Colts cover
Tennessee (+3) @
Buffalo
Pick: Bills cover
Sunday’s
Late Games
New York Jets (+10.5) @
New England
Pick: Patriots win but
Jets beat the spread
Jacksonville (+4) @
Oakland
Pick: Raiders win but
Jags beat the spread
Sunday
Night’s Game
Pittsburgh (-1) @
Cincinnati
Pick: Steelers cover
Monday
Night’s Game
Detroit (+5.5) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears win but
Lions beat the spread
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