Power
Rankings After Week 6
1. Alabama 5-0 (1st)
2. Oregon 6-0 (2nd)
3. South Carolina 6-0 (6th)
4. Florida 5-0 (9th)
5. West Virginia 5-0 (14th)
6. Notre Dame 5-0 (12th)
7. Kansas State 5-0 (10th)
8. Texas 4-1 (7th)
9. LSU 5-1 (4th)
10. Ohio State 6-0 (NR)
11. USC 4-1 (8th)
12. Florida State 5-1 (3rd)
13. Oklahoma 3-1 (11th)
14. Georgia 5-1 (5th)
15. Clemson 5-1 (15th)
Out:
Oregon State (8th).
Comments:
I said last week that I felt like my rankings were starting to stabilize. I’m
not sure why I even bothered to make that comment heading into last week, which
figured to be one of the real judgment days of the season. Although to be
honest, while I knew the results of last week would have an effect on my
rankings, I didn’t know it would be this dramatic.
It might seem like I’ve
overreacted to last week’s results, but I don’t feel this is the case. There
are several reasons for this. While it may appear that I’ve made a huge change
based solely on last week, a lot of this stuff has been building or trending in
a certain direction, and last week was just an exclamation point. Similarly, a
lot of the changes look drastic but in reality last week only confirmed or
reconfirmed beliefs I’d had going into the year or earlier in the year.
Also, while I try and
make these rankings about more than just wins and losses, sometimes we’re just
trapped by what we do or don’t know about teams. In other words, we probably
haven’t seen the best and worst of all of these teams yet. When teams play
spectacularly well or spectacularly badly, it makes sense that there would be a
noticeable difference in the rankings because you’re forced to give up certain
views that were holding back change before.
I think this week
requires something close to a team-by-team breakdown, but before we get to that
let’s go over the changes as usual. I wasn’t totally off last week when I said
that the rankings were beginning to stabilize. While there continues to be
change within the rankings, the names in the top 15 have definitely stabilized.
It usually takes a while to figure out which teams you were way off on, which
teams you never saw coming, and which early surprise contenders were actually not
contenders after all.
I think we’ve basically
reached that point this year and we may have reached that point earlier than
usual this season. Two weeks ago there were only 2 new teams in my rankings;
last week I only had 1 new team; and this week I again switched out only 1 team
from top 15. There’s still a long way to go of course, but for now I feel pretty
comfortable with the 15 teams in my power rankings.
Obviously there’s still
plenty of change going on within the top 15. 12 of 15 spots experienced change
this week, with only the top 2 teams and the last team remaining in place. 5
teams moved up in the rankings this week, while 6 teams dropped. All 5 of the
teams going up in the rankings moved up at least 3 spots. 5 of the 6 teams
falling in the rankings dropped at least 2 spots.
Alabama is still the #1
team in my rankings, as they hold the top spot for a sixth consecutive week.
Oregon held steady at #2 for a third straight week. Meanwhile, Clemson has now
been the final team in my top 15 for 3 straight weeks.
West Virginia made the
biggest climb in the rankings this week, moving 9 spots from #14 to #5.
Two different teams
made major moves in the wrong direction this week. Florida State fell off 9
spots, dropping from #3 to #12. Georgia also fell 9 spots, falling from #5 to
#14.
Oregon State was the
only team to fall out of my rankings this week, dropping out of the top 15 from
#13. They were replaced by Ohio State, as the Buckeyes jumped back into the
power rankings at #10.
Some
Team-Specific Explanations
Outside of Alabama,
Oregon, and Clemson every other team in my rankings moved up or down this week,
and I felt compelled to explain my thinking for some of the changes.
South
Carolina: SC moved up 3 spots this week from #6 all the way
to #3. I’m 99.9% sure this is the highest they’ve ever been in my rankings. It
may seem a little bit much to have the Gamecocks ranked this high but I don’t
think it’s out of line.
Going into the year I
thought South Carolina would be really strong again. I figured they’d have a
tough defense and a really strong running game. SC has had good teams under
Steve Spurrier but they had never quite gotten over the hump and moved to that
next level with the big boys.
In addition, you could
always count on South Carolina to “pull a Cocky” and lose to one of the teams
on the level just below them (Vandy, Kentucky, one of the Mississippi teams).
And they didn’t really seem to be able to run over opponents on a weekly basis
they way that Spurrier’s Florida teams had.
They still aren’t on an
early-to-mid-nineties Florida Gator level, but this does seem to be a different
SC team, and almost certainly the best Spurrier has had in Columbia (or at
least, the best relative to the rest of college football in that particular
year). There have been a number of keys to taking this next step.
It’s clear that the
recruiting is finally starting to come to fruition. South Carolina has been
able to handle losing key players to the NFL in a way they couldn’t in the
past. They had key players drafted at receiver, offensive line, and all 3
levels of the defense—including a number of 1st and 2nd
round picks—and they haven’t been phased. That’s new.
I knew they’d still be
good defensively this season. I didn’t know they’d be better. I actually had no
idea how tough they were until last Saturday. Admittedly, they were performing
against my own team which can lead to overreacting. It’s not like Georgia’s
offensive line is top notch. But just trust me; any offensive line is going to
have a hard time against that South Carolina front. Clowney is the major cog to
be sure, but the rest of the line—and the entire defense—is no joke either.
Going into the year we
knew South Carolina would be able to run the ball, but there were still QB
questions. However, one of the other major differences between this SC team and
earlier Spurrier teams has been improved play at the quarterback position. I
don’t know if people ever really thought about how much Stephen Garcia held SC
back. They weren’t the same when he wasn’t playing, but at the same time, he
often didn’t perform at his best. Plus, all of his problems just kept the
offense from gelling.
We all know Spurrier’s
offense needs a capable QB and he’s had a hard time convincing top talent to
come to Columbia and be chewed out for 4 years. He’s still having a hard time
doing that but he doesn’t need top talent. Shane Matthews, Danny Wuerffel, Doug
Johnson, Jessie Palmer, Rex Grossman. Every single one of those players had far
more success at Florida than they ever did in the pros. Spurrier just needs a
capable QB. And he has one in Connor Shaw. Shaw is accurate, he can move, and
he doesn’t make too many dumb turnovers. That’s all Spurrier’s offense needs,
particularly when they have a top notch work horse RB like Marcus Lattimore.
The final change I’ll
mention has to do with the Ol’ Ball Coach himself. There was a period of time
where Spurrier just didn’t seem like Spurrier anymore. Whether he was burned
out or had just become satisfied with being pretty good, he didn’t seem to be
the feisty OBC of old. I kind of got the feeling that the NFL experience and
then not being able to recreate his previous SEC success at South Carolina had
taken something out of him. You would seem him interviewed at golf tournaments
and I just started to think he wasn’t far from playing more golf on a
year-round basis. Honestly, not long ago I expected him to retire in the near
future.
I don’t know if
Spurrier’s rejuvenation has been a product of South Carolina finally starting
to get over these humps or if it’s been his renewed dedication that has spurred
the program’s success or if it’s a combination of both. But he does appear to
have found new life.
I mentioned a couple of
other things that had always kept me from thinking of SC as a top 5 sort of
team. One of those was “pulling a Cocky” and losing to one of the lesser teams
of the SEC. They started off the year coming close to pulling one of those, as
they struggled to beat Vandy on the first day of the 2012 season. They didn’t
lose, but it looked like the sort of lackluster performance that other SC teams
have put forth in the past. Part of that had to be first game quirkiness, along
with some guys not being ready to go.
After that they rolled
over 3 straight weaker opponents. Finally a week before the big game with
Georgia I thought we might be getting a “Cocky,” as SC struggled in the first
half against one of the worst Kentucky teams of the last 20 years. But
eventually South Carolina won 38-17. They haven’t “Pulled a Cocky” yet and they
may avoid it all together this season.
The other question was
whether or not they could play with “the big boys.” Certainly they’ve knocked
off high ranked SEC teams in the past, including #1 Alabama in 2010, but for
every good performance there’s been a blowout loss. As sad as this is to say,
I’m not sure we really know how this team will play against the big boys this
year, and I say that as loyal and committed Georgia Bulldawg fan. Loyal and
committed, but also realistic. The fact is that the only thing novel about
South Carolina’s win over UGA last week was how lopsided it was. Spurrier’s big
talk about Georgia being no big deal has been brushed off as smack talk in the
past, but it’s time to face facts. South Carolina has now beaten Georgia 3
years straight and in 4 of the last 6 years. At the moment, I think we have to
say that South Carolina has passed Georgia in the SEC. It may not be that way
at the end of the season; or next season; or after Spurrier leaves. But at this
moment, it’s almost in arguable.
Having said that, I
still feel that Georgia is a really good team, and South Carolina dominated
them on Saturday, outplaying them in every facet of the game. That, along with
all of the other things, convinced me that they are one of the toughest teams
in the country. It will be interesting to see how they handle these next couple
of weeks on the road against LSU and Florida. It seems almost impossible that
they could beat Georgia, LSU (on the road), Florida (on the road), and
Tennessee in consecutive weeks. They might even lose more than once. We shall
see.
I will say that if you
look at their season so far, their two least dominant performances came on the
road. You didn’t used to think of South Carolina as having a big homefield
advantage but it was certainly a factor last Saturday. They will obviously be
dealing with something different in the next couple of games.
Florida:
I moved Florida up 5 spots in my rankings this week from #9 to #4. I thought
Florida would be back this season, but then again, I thought they’d be good in
2010 and 2011 as well. In college sports it can be really hard to avoid being influenced
by history and I wasn’t sure if I was again over-ranking the Gators based on
history. The Gators have been a force basically throughout my time following
college football, thus I’m always expecting them to regain that level quickly
whenever they slip.
I also thought Muschamp
would have to be at least a little bit better in his second year on the job.
But the thing that I just could not stop thinking about was this: how can they
not be good? Despite back-to-back down years and the departure of coach Urban
Meyer, Florida has continued to sign not just good recruiting classes but top
of the rankings recruiting classes. We all know that recruiting ranks are
anything but scientific and we all know that reputation can skew expectations.
In other words, certain programs may tend to have overrated recruiting classes
simply because of who they are. It’s kind of like “well if Notre Dame wants
them then they must be really good.” But Florida isn’t that sort of place.
I just didn’t see how
that talent wouldn’t eventually start to make a difference on the field. Some
people said “well, it’s the same as when Ron Zook was there. If you can’t coach
‘em up it doesn’t matter how many 5-star players you have.” I could see that
point, which is why I was a bit unsure of my high ranking for Florida coming
into the year. Then they sputtered out of the gates and didn’t look all that
different than last year. But they pulled away from Tennessee on the road in
the second half, put a 38-0 beatdown on UK, and then last week prevailed over
LSU, a team that had won 18 straight against teams not named Alabama.
I still think there are
valid coaching concerns and the offense is nothing like it was under Spurrier
or Meyer, but the talent is starting to have an effect. That being said, the #4
ranking may be a bit too high. The thing is that we just haven’t seen the
Gators play a really bad game yet and it’s easier for me to believe in Florida
than some of the other top contenders.
There are a couple of
things to consider. They started 4-0 against similar competition in 2010 and
went 4-5 the rest of the way. They started 4-0 against similar competition last
year and went 3-6 the rest of the way. On the other hand, I still believe last
year’s Florida team would have had a different season if they hadn’t suffered
QB injuries at the worst possible time.
The other thing to
ponder over is this. They have broken the trend of falling on their faces after
the 4th game, but at this moment I’m less sure about LSU than I have
been in years. It’s possible that we’ll look back on that victory over LSU and
say, “Well, that really didn’t turn out to be that big of win.” I don’t think
that will happen but we see that sort of thing happen all the time. We’ll learn
more about Florida over the next few weeks as they’ll play South Carolina and
Georgia.
West
Virginia: WV made the biggest move up my rankings this week,
jumping 9 spots from #14 all the way to #5. The reason for this is pretty
simple. Prior to last week I was still kind of holding onto the idea that West
Virginia was a freakishly high powered offensive team that would (a) not be
quite as prolific against tougher competition and (b) eventually be burned by
their own lackluster defense. I still think the second part of that statement
may come true and I’m sure they wouldn’t just carve up the very best defenses
in the country, but winning at Texas went a long way towards convincing me that
they are simply good enough as a team to put some of those other issues to the
side.
Honestly, I hadn’t been
that impressed by their body of work prior to last week. They had scored a
bunch of points but also allowed a ton. They hadn’t played anyone of
consequence and they weren’t exactly dominating teams. Beating Baylor 70-63 was
entertaining and historic for all of the offensive stats, but as a victory it
wasn’t too impressive. Last week was a different story, however, as they beat a
previously unbeaten Texas team on the road. Texas is not back to being the
Texas of the middle part of the 2000’s, but they’re still one of the better
teams in the country.
I will say that West
Virginia could easily fall from this spot. Right now I think they’d be hard for
almost any team in the country to stop, but again, we haven’t seen them play a
really bad game yet, and they’ve got plenty of tests still to pass.
Notre
Dame: ND climbed 6 spots in my rankings this week from
#12 to #6. For me, Notre Dame’s history comes into play as much as almost any
other team in the country when I try to judge how good they are. But I’m not
talking about the history that’s usually associated with ND. Well, not exactly
any way. For many years people have tended to overhype and overrate Notre Dame
for the same reasons that I’m quick to over-rank teams like Florida and Florida
State: they were so good, for so long, people just expect that they will be
again. For the most part, however, I’ve really only been around for the
overrating part of that history. Thus, while I thought ND would be good this
year, I expected them to have some limitations.
It wasn’t just the
tough schedule; I’ve come to expect Notre Dame to be the Notre Dame of the last
20 years. In other words, to struggle against middling opponents; win a game or
two against good teams; and to be overpowered by the best teams. This ND team
has been different for most of the year. Their second game of the season was at
home against Purdue and they had to eke out a 3-point win. I thought it would
be just another okay ND season.
But since then they’ve
beaten both Michigan State and Michigan in games that weren’t anywhere near as
close as the final scores indicated. They’ve also destroyed a couple of
middling teams this year that would have given them trouble in the past. We
still have to see how they hold up against the best teams, but for now I’ve had
to give in and at least consider that Notre Dame might finally be “for real.”
Kansas
State: KSU moved up 3 spots in my rankings this week from
#10 to #7. Do I really think Kansas State is the 7th best team in
the country? I don’t know. Why not? Their head coach is a fucking genius. It’s
that simple. They can score with anyone and they aren’t soft. They were 10-3
last year and they’ve started off this season 5-0. In addition, the only team
to really pound them last year was Oklahoma, and they’ve already beaten them on
the road.
I don’t really know why
or how they’ve gotten this good, but I don’t have any more reasons to hold them
back. KSU is back. That statement may sound funny to the youngest fans, and
maybe even some of the oldest, but Bill Snyder built them into a serious threat
in the 90’s and early 2000’s and he has them at that level once again.
Texas:
Texas dropped 1 spot in the rankings this week from #7 to #8. This may seem
strange, as I pronounced myself unimpressed by their close win at Oklahoma
State in week 4, and last week they lost at home. As I mentioned before, Texas
isn’t back to being powerhouse Texas, but they’re significantly better than
they have been the last few years. In their last 3 games they’ve blown out an
SEC team on the road, won at Ok State, and narrowly lost to West Virginia at
home. That’s not too bad.
They high scoring
offense is back. While the defense hasn’t looked stout the last couple of
games, which defenses do look stout against Ok State and WV? Texas may not be
quite as good as the #8 team in the land, but we’ll soon find out, as the
battle with Oklahoma looms this weekend.
LSU:
LSU fell 5 spots in my rankings this week from #4 to #9. Earlier in this entry
I wrote about how some of these changes may look like drastic reactions based
on 1 week of results, but that in reality they were just the culmination of several
weeks. LSU was one of the teams I had in mind when I made that statement.
Going into the year I
thought LSU was one of the few teams in the country that I absolutely knew would
be great. There didn’t seem any way that they wouldn’t at least be really,
really tough. The defense was a sure thing. They had a new QB, but their
quarterback play actually figured to be much better, and they always have a
stable full of backs. Losing the Honey Badger (and I use his nickname here
simply because his last name is annoying to spell out) was certainly seen from
the start as a major loss, but the secondary is a spot where LSU is always
deep.
Early on it was exactly
as everyone expected. The Tigers scored at least 41 points and allowed no more
than 14 points in each of their first 3 games, including a 41-3 thrashing of
Washington. The last 3 games, however, have been a much different story. The
key factor, in my opinion, has been a plague of injuries. The Tigers have taken
heavy losses all over the field. Another major factor is that while the defense
has remained stout, the offense has been a train wreck over the last few weeks.
Mettenberger may be a junior eligibility wise, but he’s played like a true
freshman.
But here’s the other
thing. When Mathieu was dismissed from the team, people mostly focused on how
it affected him and on how it affected the LSU defense. To begin with his
Heisman hopes were obviously dashed. Plus, there was the question of just what
he would do now. Would he transfer to a lower division? Would he sit out a
whole year? Would this kill his chances of an NFL career? As for the Tigers,
people wondered how LSU would cope with the loss of Mathieu in the secondary,
as they were already having to replace 3 defensive backs chosen in the NFL
draft.
But I really think that
Honey Badger’s absence has had the biggest effect on LSU’s offense. Just think
about it: the special teams and defensive returns for scores; the returns for
good field position; the turnovers giving possessions and scoring opportunities
to the offense; how he changed the way opposing teams punted. All of that is
gone. And don’t forget that Morris Claiborne took his kick returning prowess
with him to the NFL. So not only did Honey Badger’s dismissal make Claiborne
harder to replace in the secondary, it also meant that their entire return game
from the year before would have to be replaced.
The combination of the
injuries, the talent lost in the draft, Mathieu’s dismissal, and the
inexperience of Mettenberger has led to LSU becoming a very beatable team in
recent weeks. First they struggled to beat what would appear to be one of the
worst Auburn teams of the last 25 years, winning 12-10 on the road. They
followed that up with a pitiful performance on both sides of the ball against
Towson, winning just 38-22 at home, in a game during which they actually
trailed late in the 1st half. Finally last Saturday they went to the
Swamp and were simply shutdown by the Gators defense.
LSU’s D has remained
solid and they kept the Tigers in it, but Mettenberger and the offense just
couldn’t get anything going. The Bayou Bengals turned it over 3 times, amassed
just 200 yards of offense and 8 first downs, and went 1 for 13 on 3rd
down conversions as they lost 14-6.
At this point I don’t
know if LSU is a great team, something I was totally certain about in
September. Due to the injuries, they may not even be capable of doing what they
did to Washington in week 2, even if Mettenberger figures it out. What’s
keeping me from moving LSU any lower than they are now is that defense. There’s
a little voice in my head that just says, “Yeah, but no way LSU’s defense lets
this season get away.” And that’s why I’m in a wait-and-see mode for now. We’ll
find out more about the Tigers in the next couple of weeks, as they host South
Carolina and play at Texas A&M.
Ohio
State: Ohio State was the only new team in my top 15 this
week, jumping back into my rankings at #10 after falling out a few weeks ago.
The Buckeyes were the other team I was thinking of when I mentioned that a lot
of this week’s changes were not just reactions to the most recent results but
were based on trends emerging over the last few weeks.
Going into the season I
expected Ohio State to be one of the best teams in the country. I lost patience
with them after a few weeks, however, as they weren’t playing anything like
what I expected. They were thoroughly unimpressive in each of their first 4
games, all of which came at home against poor-to-middling competition. But in
week 5 they went on the road and eked out a win over Michigan State. Then last
Saturday night they hosted Nebraska and I finally saw the Ohio State team I
expected to see coming into the year. They won it 63-38 and it looks like the
offense is finally getting into the swing of things.
Just a few weeks ago I
was amazed at how mediocre Urban Meyer’s team was looking on offense. It still
doesn’t exactly look like Meyer’s usual spread attack, but he has always proven
capable of changing his scheme to fit his personnel, and perhaps he has figured
out how best to use Braxton Miller.
One other thing to
mention is that their somewhat lackadaisical 7-point win over Cal in week 3 no
longer looks quite as bad as it did then, as the Golden Bears pounded UCLA this
past weekend. At this point, I will be
mildly surprised if they don’t finish 12-0. They would most certainly have had
an impact on this year’s chase for the BCS if they weren’t on probation. Even
though their strength of schedule wouldn’t have helped them, if they finished
undefeated there’s no way a 1-loss team would have gotten in ahead of them,
even if that team came out of the SEC or Big XII.
USC:
USC fell 3 spots in my rankings this week from #8 to #11. If it seems strange
for me to move USC down 3 places following a 10-point win on the road in the
Pac-12, I must again say that the change was based on more than just the latest
result. Since losing to Stanford in week 3, USC has won 27-9 at home against a
middling-at-best Cal team, and then won 38-28 on the road against what appears
to be the weakest Utah squad in a decade. That’s not terrible. It’s a pair of
double digit victories against conference foes, one on the road, the other
against an instate rival. But it’s nowhere near what I expected out of this USC
team.
Actually, in my
opinion, they haven’t played a great game all season long. Even when it seems
so obvious; even when it seems almost impossible for a team not to be really,
really good it still happens every now and then. At this point, I’m beginning
to wonder if USC will ever crank it up and start playing the way just about
everyone in the world thought they would this season.
Florida
State: Oh, FSU. Just when you thought they were back (for
the 12th time at least). Florida State plummeted 9 spots in my
rankings this week, dropping from #3 all the way to #12. We talked earlier
about the mystique of once-great programs and the tendency for people to expect
them to eventually regain their former level of greatness. I also talked about
how it isn’t just fans of a particular team but simply fans of the sport who
seem naturally inclined to see signs of those programs returning to form when
they often aren’t there or wouldn’t be noticed in other teams. We’ve seen this
with a number of teams in recent years: Nebraska, Michigan, and Notre Dame are
just a few examples.
For me, it’s always
been those former powerhouses of the Sunshine State, University of Miami and
Florida State. The losing seasons and NCAA sanctions have cured me of the habit
of overrating the Hurricanes. It hasn’t been as easy with Florida State. I’ve
probably overrated the Seminoles every single year since 2001 (the season
following their loss to Oklahoma in the National Championship Game). It happens
over and over again.
Occasionally I’ve been
able to see it coming a few weeks ahead (like in 2003 when they nearly lost the
season opener to Jacksonville State), but I usually stick to my belief that
this is the year they are back until that first loss. Sometimes I’m totally
blindsided. That was the case this season and this Saturday night, when the
Noles lost the sort of game that has become their calling card over the last
decade, just as top 5 finishes was in the previous 2 decades.
The Noles had played
one of the weakest schedules in the country through 5 games, but they had at
least rolled through it in impressive fashion. They played 2 FCS schools and
Wake Forest in their first 3 games, all at home, but they did about as much as
possible against such cupcakes, outscoring them by a combined total of 176-3. Incredibly,
it was the first time they made it through the first 3 games undefeated since
2005! In their first test of the year, the Noles ran away from high powered
Clemson to win 49-37. Then in week 5 they went on the road and beat USF 30-17,
avenging their loss to the Bulls at home in 2009, Bobby Bowden’s last season as
head coach.
They were heavy
favorites on the road last Saturday night against a decidedly average NC State
squad. And they jumped ahead of them 16-0. But they let the Wolfpack hang
around, and hang around, and some weird things happened, and when it was over
they had lost 17-16.
So how could I think
the Noles were the #3 team in the country one week and then think they were
just the #12 team a week later? It’s all about that mystique. It doesn’t matter
that it was a 1-point loss on the road in a conference game. It doesn’t matter
that it was a somewhat fluky deal. I’ve had to learn this lesson annually for a
decade but by now I am at least able to recognize reality quickly. The truth is
that FSU isn’t back and they may never really be all the way back. What they
are at this point, is the best ACC team. That’s it.
Oklahoma:
Oklahoma moved down 2 spots in my rankings this week from #11 to #13. I have
the same sort of overrating problem with Oklahoma that I do with FSU, only it’s
a little bit different. The Sooners still consistently rack up points and win
10 games a year. My problem is that I always think they’ll run over everybody and
go undefeated through the regular season the way they used to.
Recently, Oklahoma
stubbing its toe against a seemingly weaker Big XII school at least once a year
has become as much of a guarantee as the Sooners losing in a BCS bowl. We’ve
already seen it this season, as they lost at home to Kansas State back in
September.
I’m normally patient
with the Sooners, unwilling to accept that even though they very clearly have a
better roster than any team this side of the SEC, they just aren’t an elite
team. But I’m starting to learn that lesson quicker as well. So far this season
they’ve struggled to take care of business against UTEP; blown out an FCS team;
lost at home to KSU while scoring just 19 points; and won by 21 on the road
against Texas Tech. There’s just nothing there to justify ranking them any
higher than where I have them now.
Georgia:
I dropped the Georgia 9spots this week from #5 to #14. This was obviously no
fun for me. You may say that there’s emotion involved in this drastic move, but
I honestly don’t think that’s a factor here. For me, Saturday night was just a
very clear, very powerful learning experience. What I mean by that is that
there was simply no way to sugarcoat what happened.
There’s no way that
sort of thing happens to a truly elite team. The Dawgs may end up having a
great season and in the end we can say they were a great team, but there’s no
way that sort of total annihilation happens to a true national title contender.
I don’t even mean to say that the Dawgs were all that overrated to begin with.
They are one of the best teams in the country. But what we know now is that
there is a very clear line separating the Dawgs from the very best, and to be
honest, the Dawgs aren’t all that close to being a national championship
caliber team.
There are lots of
flaws. We knew this team was flawed all along. Many of the same problems that
have kept the Dawgs from taking the next step—or really even maintaining the
place that they had back in the early 2000’s—are still present. In my opinion,
it all starts at the line of scrimmage. That hasn’t been the weakness fans have
yelled the loudest about, or the one critics have been harshest about, or the
one that we’ve all spent them most time worrying about, but I do think it’s the
starting point.
Not that it’s a secret.
Georgia’s bewildering and on-going struggles to build and maintain quality and
depth at offensive line has been covered extensively over the years, locally in
particular. Promising recruits have suffered career halting injuries or
transferred elsewhere or failed to really pan out. Injuries have been constant.
Guys who would eventually be drafted into the NFL based on size and body type
alone have been, at least while at Georgia, just not very good football
players. Then there have been things like promising lineman having a banned
substance show up and costing them a year and then having that substance
continue to come up on subsequent tests despite over a year’s worth of time passing
since the prior usage. Or it’s a highly touted recruit who is barred from
attending the school due to birth record or citizenship questions.
It hasn’t just been a
failure to attract the best talent or a failure to focus on the line or a
failure to coach up those players who do end up playing for the team, all
though surely all of those things must play at least a small part in the
problem. Whatever the history and the circumstances, the reality is that it’s
been a continuous weak spot.
When the O-line has
looked like a potential question mark or weakness going into the season it has
consistently been as bad as or worse than expected. When the O-line has looked
like a strength or an area that the team could rely on going into the season it
has consistently turned out to be anything but. Rarely in the years since 2005
have the Dawgs lacked for talent at the skill positions offensively, but in
order to beat the best teams you have to be able to protect and you have to be
able to match the physicality of the defense, and the Dawgs have struggled to
do this.
But the problem in the
trenches hasn’t been confined to the offensive side of the ball alone. There’s
no question that the Dawgs have had talented players on the defensive line.
They’ve had highly touted recruits and even big name draft pick type guys on
the D-line. But as a unit, the Georgia defensive line has often been less of a
factor than might be expected and occasionally has been soft.
People ranted and raved
about the defense under Willie Martinez. They continue to fume over the
offensive play calling of Mike Bobo. People say Richt isn’t strict enough on
the players and everyone criticizes Georgia for the arrests and suspensions.
We’ve all raged about the penalties, turnovers, and dumb plays. We’ve lamented
the transfers, the lost recruiting battles, and the talent leaving early for
the pros. We know all of these issues so well. And you know what? They are all
valid issues and parts of the grand problem. But for me, it goes back to the
line of scrimmage. That’s where you have to be strong if you want to be able to
compete with any team in the country, and the Dawgs are again lacking in that
crucial area.
To get more specific
about this current team and why at the moment they don’t look like a top 5 team
there are obviously other issues. There’s no doubt that Georgia has a ton of
talent in the secondary, unless you think the NFL draft gurus are all morons.
But for as talented and experienced as that secondary unit is, they are just
not as sound with decision making and execution as they ought to be. There are
far too many breakdowns, too many poor decisions, too many moments when they let
up.
The Dawgs have one
player on defensive who is very, very special. Jarvis Jones can cover up a lot
of weaknesses and at times he can take over the game. But in the last two
games—vs. Tennessee and at South Carolina—Jarvis has not had an obvious impact
on the game. I must admit that I don’t know for sure why this has been the
case. Perhaps teams are gearing their entire offensive game plan towards not
allowing Jarvis to beat them. It may be that he hasn’t quite figured out how to
adjust to these strategies. Or perhaps the problem is that no other member or
area of the defense has stepped up to counter all of the attention opposing
offenses are placing on Jarvis.
The other possibility
is that the groin injury Jarvis suffered earlier in the year is severely
limiting his ability to do the things he’s capable of doing on the field. It
could be a combination of all of these things. But whatever the case, for the
last couple of games Jarvis has not been able to have the kind of impact he’s
proven capable of having on the game,
and that’s made Georgia’s defense look rather ordinary at times.
On the other side of
the ball the Dawgs had managed to put up some gaudy numbers prior to the South
Carolina game despite some turnover problems. Aaron Murray has put up some very
impressive numbers, but he still has not learned how to avoid turnovers. Murray
also has an annoying habit of overthrowing receivers, particularly early in
games, and it would appear these long balls come as a result of him being too
jacked up or jumpy or something of that nature.
Georgia’s constant use
of “East and West” passes or near laterals is one aspect of the offense that
drives fans crazy, but on Saturday night it was clear that the Dawgs simply
couldn’t give Murray enough time for 5 or 7 step drops or play action passes.
Georgia’s running backs are some of the toughest nosed runners in the SEC, so
if there is any kind of run blocking at all they are going to be successful as
we saw in the UT game. But on Saturday, SC’s line just dominated the Georgia
O-line and totally stopped the running game cold.
On pass protection, it
wasn’t a case of South Carolina picking on one member of the UGA offensive line
the way that we have seen teams go after John Theus at times this season. Each
and every member of the UGA offensive line was schooled on various plays during
the game. The Dawgs were never able to make any sort of adjustment that allowed
the offense to get on track.
Going into the year I
wasn’t too worried about the loss of TE Orson Charles. He was a freakish talent
who could make wonderful plays, but he was also inconsistent. He would have a
big game and then be a non-factor the next week and he didn’t have the surest
hands. In any event, I thought the guys replacing Charles and Aron White would
be able to fill the shoes but for whatever reason they haven’t. It may be that
the TE’s are being used differently this season with the emergence of the
strong rushing attack and the need to help out in pass protection, but for the
first time during Mark Richt’s time in Athens the TE’s are virtually a
non-factor in the passing game.
Then there was the
sickening loss of receiver Michael Bennett to a knee injury suffered during
practice in between SEC games. While the Dawgs probably have more depth at
receiver than any position on the field, Bennett’s loss was and is a crucial
one. Not only is he an excellent receiver overall, he is a hardnosed guy who
can be counted on to make big time catches on 3rd downs or near the
goal line and he is an excellent blocker. On Saturday the Dawgs were so badly
destroyed it was hard to claim that Bennett’s presence would have made any
difference, but you never know, particularly when you consider how crucial that
failed scoring drive right before the half was.
And then there is
Georgia’s special teams unit which overall has been a major disappointment this
season. Perhaps it isn’t the reason the Dawgs lost on Saturday but special
teams have been Georgia’s biggest weakness so far this season. Several extra points
have been missed and several more have either doinked in or been close enough to
cause a small heart attack. The weirdest thing is that Marshall Morgan has been
tremendous kicking field goals, but the PAT’s, which need to be automatic, have
been erratic.
Kickoffs and punts
haven’t been anything special this season, and the Dawgs have lucked out on a
few protection failures. Georgia has had some big plays returning kicks but
they’ve also made some crucial mistakes in that area. Most importantly,
however, the Dawgs have not solved their kick and punt coverage issues, the
same ones that doomed them in last year’s SEC Championship Game.
There were a handful of
plays on Saturday night that might (and I want to stress might) have made a
difference in the outcome if they had gone differently. There was Rambo
intercepting a pass on SC’s first possession and then allowing the receiver to
take it away from him and turn it into a big gain. There was King catching the
pass at the 1 and getting stopped a foot shy of the goal line late in the first
half. There was Murray’s tipped pass intercepted on UGA’s first offensive
possession. And there was also a crucial overthrow on a 3rd down
that could have extended a UGA drive.
But for me, by far the
biggest play of the game was the punt returned for a touchdown. That was really
a backbreaker, even that early in the game. That turned it from “we’re in some
trouble” to “okay, we probably aren’t going to win this and it could get really
ugly.” I definitely thought there was a clip on the play but you still can’t
afford to have that kind of thing happen at that crucial point in the game.
So anyway, this turned
out to be much longer than I anticipated; both this section on Georgia and this
entire entry. So I’m going to stop now. Go Dawgs. There’s still plenty left to play
for this year.
No comments:
Post a Comment