Wednesday, October 24, 2012

The College Football Blog: 2012 Week 9 Betting Lines



Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 8-2; Vs. Spread: 7-3)
Overall (Straight Up: 47-9; Vs. Spread: 29-26-1; Moneyline Upsets: 3-1)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 52-28; Vs. Spread: 36-44)
Overall (Straight Up: 307-90; Vs. Spread: 211-185; Moneyline Upsets: 15-15)

Week 8 Review: Overall this was best week of the year. It wasn’t my best week in what I consider to be the primary category—overall record ATS—but I had at least a good week in all 5 areas. 

Finally I had a good week picking the biggest 10 games—both straight up and ATS—and I got back to .500 picking upsets. Obviously I’ll need more than 1 good week ATS in the biggest 10 games to get back to .500 on the year. 

Overall ATS I suppose it would be silly to complain about being 3 games over .500 for the week. It certainly could have been better. On the other hand, I really struggled later in the day on Saturday so I’m just glad I finished with a decent record. 


Week 9 Preview: This week’s schedule isn’t quite as stacked as week 8 was, but it’s still pretty solid. There are 58 games this week, which I believe is the largest slate of the season so far. Once again there are no FBS vs. FCS games this week. 

It’s always a good sign when I have trouble narrowing the list of “biggest games” down to just 10 and that was again the case this week. As usual I ended up going with a mixture of nationally important games and rivalries. 

My goal this week is to once again avoid disaster. I’d also like to have another good week ATS in the biggest 10 games. I’m definitely going with fewer favorites than I did last week. I may have gone overboard on moneyline upsets, as I’ve predicted more this week than I have all year. What’s really making me nervous about this week is that I’m going with a number of teams that I NEVER pick. Hopefully that doesn’t come back to haunt.  


 


Saturday


Game 1: North Carolina State (+7.5) @ North Carolina  
Pick: NC State beats the spread


Game 2: USC (-6.5) @ Arizona   
Pick: Arizona beats the spread


Game 3: Texas Tech (+7) @ Kansas State 
Pick: Texas Tech beats the spread


Game 4: Florida (-6.5) vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)
Pick: Florida covers


Game 5: Ohio (-6.5) @ Miami (Ohio)
Pick: Ohio covers


Game 6: Ohio State (Pick) @ Penn State
Pick: Ohio State covers


Game 7: Notre Dame (+10) @ Oklahoma  
Pick: Notre Dame beats the spread


Game 8: Michigan (+2.5) @ Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska covers


Game 9: Mississippi State (+23.5) @ Alabama  
Pick: Alabama covers


Game 10: Oregon State (-4) @ Washington 
Pick: Oregon State covers


Other Games


Tuesday 


Arkansas State (+3.5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (Ark State beats the spread)


Thursday


Clemson (-11.5) @ Wake Forest (Clemson covers)


Friday


Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Louisville (Cincinnati beats the spread)
Nevada (-3) @ Air Force (AF pulls off the upset)


Saturday


Iowa (+6) @ Northwestern (NW covers)
Kentucky (+13.5) @ Missouri (Kentucky beats the spread)
Temple (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh covers)
Ball State (-5.5) @ Army (BSU covers)
Indiana (+1) @ Illinois (Indiana pulls off the upset)
Texas (-21) @ Kansas (Texas covers)
Tennessee (+14) @ South Carolina (South Carolina covers)
Northern Illinois (-7) @ Western Michigan (NIU covers)
Mississippi (+5) @ Arkansas (Arkansas covers)
Southern Mississippi (+2.5) @ Rice (Rice covers)
Maryland (+1) @ Boston College (Maryland pulls off the upset)
Utah State (-21.5) @ Texas-San Antonio (Utah State covers)
Colorado (+46) @ Oregon (Oregon covers)
Memphis (+20.5) @ SMU (SMU covers)
BYU (+2.5) @ Georgia Tech (BYU pulls off the upset)
UCLA (+6.5) @ Arizona State (Arizona State covers)
Purdue (-3) @ Minnesota (Purdue covers)
Duke (+28) @ Florida State (Duke beats the spread)
Navy (+3.5) @ East Carolina (ECU covers)
Fresno State (-13.5) @ New Mexico (NM beats the spread)
TCU (+7.5) @ Oklahoma State (Oklahoma State covers)
North Texas (+3) @ Middle Tennessee State (NT beats the spread)
Kent State (+13.5) @ Rutgers (Rutgers covers)
Eastern Michigan (+14.5) @ Bowling Green (BG covers)
Michigan State (+6) @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin covers)
Toledo (-8) @ Buffalo (Toledo covers)
Akron (+6.5) @ Central Michigan (Akron beats the spread)
Boise State (-16.5) @ Wyoming (Boise State covers)
UAB (-3) @ Tulane (Tulane pulls off the upset)
Texas State (+20) @ San Jose State (SJS covers)
UTEP (+13) @ Houston (Houston covers)
Troy (-7) @ Florida Atlantic (Troy covers)
Western Kentucky (-7) @ Florida International (WK covers)
Washington State (+24) @ Stanford (Stanford covers)
Hawaii (+6.5) @ Colorado State (CSU covers)
Syracuse (+3) @ South Florida (SF covers)
Baylor (+2.5) @ Iowa State (ISU covers)
Texas A&M (-14) @ Auburn (A&M covers)
Massachusetts (+32.5) @ Vanderbilt (Vandy covers)
South Alabama (+24) @ Louisiana-Monroe (ULM covers)
Central Florida (-2.5) @ Marshall (Marshall pulls off the upset)
Louisiana Tech (-30.5) @ New Mexico State (LT covers)
UNLV (+18.5) @ San Diego State (SD State covers)
California (+1) @ Utah (California pulls off the upset)









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