Last Week: Vs. Spread: (8-5); Straight Up: (9-4)
Season: Vs. Spread: (57-54-5); Straight Up: (77-39)
Week 8 Review: A solid week for me despite the ridiculous Rams-Saints game and the silly ending to the San Diego-Kansas City game.
Week 9 Preview: This looks like one of the best weeks we’ve had all season. There are solid matchups during both sessions on Sunday. The two primetime games this week should be good ones as well. I’m trying for a 3rd straight winning record ATS. I’m a little nervous. I’m picking road teams to go 9-5 ATS and favorites to go just 8-6 ATS.
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Sunday’s Early Games
Miami (+4) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chiefs cover
Comment: Both of these teams got off to really rocky starts. Both of these teams had bad luck with injuries. Both of these teams have refused to quit and have played hard each week to try and turn things around. The difference is that the Chiefs have turned back into the good team that they were last season and have righted the ship, while the Dolphins still suck and haven’t won a game.
The Chiefs have won 4 straight to get to 4-3 overall (5-2 ATS) after opening the season 0-3 with Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry out for the season. This will be a short week for the Chiefs, who got bailed out by the Chargers late Monday night to improve to 2-1 at home (2-1 ATS). They’ve won 5 straight ATS. The Dolphins are 0-7 overall (1-5-1 ATS) and 0-4 on the road (1-2-1 ATS). They’ve lost 10 straight going back to last season (1-8-1 ATS). Amazingly, despite their 0-7 record the Dolphins have only been outscored by 8.4 points per game this season. The Chiefs are a game over .500 and have been outscored by 6.0 points a game this season.
The Dolphins have won the last 2 meetings since 2006, including the last time here in 2008.
The Chiefs come into this game tied for 1st in the AFC West with the Raiders and Chargers. The Dolphins have Matt Moore and they are battling the Indianapolis Colts for the #1 pick in next year’s draft. Unfortunately for Dolphins fans (are they all dead or something?), Miami’s players seem to have much more fight in them than Indy does.
Tampa Bay (+9) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints win but Bucs beat the spread
Comment: The Saints should be ready to play this week after getting caught slipping last week. Their inexcusable 10-point loss to the Rams came one week after their 62-7 spanking of the Colts. Apparently the 55-point beat down on primetime TV went to their head.
The Bucs are coming off of a bye and hope to be getting healthy. RB Earnest Graham is out for the season with an Achilles tear, which makes it all the more crucial that LeGarrette Blount comes back as soon as possible. He’s missed the last 2 with a knee injury but is probable for this Sunday. DT Gerald McCoy has also missed the last 2 but is probable for this week. RB Mark Ingram is questionable for the Saints with a heel problem.
These two met back in week 6 with New Orleans earning a 26-20 win at Tampa Bay. However, the Saints have lost 2 straight and 3 of 4 at home against the Bucs. These two teams have split the season series each of the last 4 years.
Tampa Bay has won 4 straight after their bye. They are tied with the Falcons in 2nd in the NFC South behind the 1st place Saints. New Orleans is 5-3 overall (4-4 ATS) and 3-0 at home (3-0 ATS), while the Bucs are 4-3 overall (3-4 ATS) and 1-1 on the road (1-1 ATS).
Both teams have lost 2 of their last 3 games and both teams have lost 3 of 4 ATS. The Saints have outscored opponents by 8.9 points per game this season. Despite their winning record, the Bucs have a -5.4 average scoring margin.
Atlanta (-7) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Falcons cover
Comment: As a Falcons fan this is the sort of game that can only be satisfying or devastating. There’s little chance for elation. I’m worried because the Colts have to win a game at some point (right?) and the Falcons do not have a good history against this franchise. In fact, the Dirty Birds are 1-13 all-time against the Colts (1-5 vs. Indianapolis) and 0-6 on the road against the Colts (0-3 at Indianapolis). The Falcons’ only win in the series came at home during their magical 1998 season, which was also Peyton Manning’s 1st season in the NFL. Since then the Colts have beaten Atlanta 3 times, including last meeting in 2007.
The Birds are coming off of a bye but they’ll still be a bit banged up. FB Ovie Mughelli blew out his knee in the team’s last game and his absence will certainly be felt. Left tackle Sam Baker is expected to be out a month or so with a back injury. Hopefully WR Julio Jones will be back for this one after missing the last 2 games with a hamstring injury. The Colts of course don’t want to hear anything about injuries, as they will once again be rolling with Lance Painter at QB.
The Falcons have won 2 in a row (2-0 ATS) to get over .500 overall at 4-3 (3-4 ATS) despite the fact that they still have a -0.7 average scoring margin. They are 2-2 on the road (1-3 ATS) and they are tied with the Bucs for 2nd place in the NFC South behind New Orleans.
The poor Colts are 0-8 overall (2-6 ATS), 0-3 at home (1-2 ATS), and they are showing signs of giving up. They have been outscored by 16.4 points a game this season. They’ve lost 9 straight going back to last year and they are 2-8 ATS over their last 10. They have lost 4 in a row ATS.
Cleveland (+10.5) @ Houston
Pick: Texans cover
Comment: The Browns are one of the more mediocre squads around. They are 3-4 overall (1-4-2 ATS) and 1-2 on the road (1-2 ATS). They’ve been outscored by 4.7 points a game this season and they have lost 3 of their last 4. They are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5.
Browns fans have experienced mostly despair since the franchise was reborn in 1998, and they might actually look at mediocrity as a step in the right direction. However, the Peyton Hillis garbage has got to be driving them crazy. He should be fine to play this week but who knows. If he does play, he might only play sparingly and not very effectively. This situation is made worse by the fact that RB Montario Hardesty is out with a calf injury. Mohammad Massaquoi is also a question mark due to a concussion.
The Texans’ season looked to be in some trouble a few weeks ago but Houston has gotten it together and won 2 in a row to get to 5-3 overall (4-3-1 ATS). They are 3-1 at home (2-1-1 ATS). The Texans have a +7.7 average scoring margin but they are 1-2-1 ATS over their last 4.
WR Andre Johnson’s status is again highly questionable, as he has missed the last 4 games with a hamstring problem.
The Texans are in 1st in the AFC South while the Browns are in last in the AFC North. The Texans have won 3 of 4 against the Browns since 2005, including the last meeting in 2008 on the road, and the last time here in 2006.
New York Jets (+1) @ Buffalo
Pick: Bills cover
Comment: This should be a good one. The Bills are tied for 1st in the AFC East with the Patriots at 5-2 overall (4-2-1 ATS). They are 4-0 at home (3-1 ATS). The Jets have won 2 in a row (2-0 ATS) and are in 3rd in the AFC East at 4-3 overall (3-4 ATS). They are 0-3 on the road (0-3 ATS). New York has a +2.9 average scoring differential, while the Bills have outscored opponents by 9.1 points per game.
The Bills will again be without NT Kyle Williams (foot).
The Jets are off of a bye but they’ve lost coming off of their bye week the last 2 years. The Jets have won 3 in a row and 5 of 6 against the Bills. They’ve won 3 straight and 4 of 5 against the Bills on the road (1 of those wins in Toronto).
San Francisco (-3.5) @ Washington
Pick: Niners cover
Comment: Two teams going in opposite directions. Led by the youthful and emotional Jim Harbaugh, the Niners are surging towards the top of the NFL. Harbaugh has seemingly worked magic in transforming a San Francisco offense that had been dead for a decade. The Redskins are an old, dying, battered club that would appear to be headed for the cellar. Mike Shanahan seems to have lost every bit of his touch as an offensive genius and as a leader of men.
The Niners have won 5 in a row (5-0 ATS) to get to 6-1 on the season (6-0-1 ATS). They have a 4-game lead in the NFC West. The Niners are 3-0 on the road this season (3-0 ATS). They have a +11.4 average scoring differential. Washington has lost 3 straight (0-3 ATS) to fall to 3-4 overall (3-4 ATS). They are 2-1 at home (1-2 ATS). The Skins have a -3.3 average scoring margin and they are tied for 2nd in the NFC East with the Eagles and the Cowboys.
San Fran lost WR Josh Morgan for the year earlier this season but so far it has not derailed them. On the other hand, as far as injuries go, the Redskins have been depth charged, forced to the surface, strafed, bombed, and left burning in oil in the middle of the ocean. RB Tim Hightower and TE Chris Cooley are done for the year, WR Santana Moss is out til December, OT Trent Williams, FB Mike Sellers, and CB Phillip Buchanan have also missed time. Backup RB Tashard Choice is out for this week and TE Fred Davis is questionable with an ankle sprain. At QB the Skins have gone with the two-headed monster of Rex Grossman and John Beck.
San Fran won the last meeting between these two in 2008. The Skins won the last meeting in Washington in 2003.
Seattle (+11.5) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys cover
Comment: The Cowboys are usually able to take care of business against garbage teams (or at least it seems that way, I actually have no statistical data to back that up). The Seahawks are just not very good. They are 2-5 overall (3-3-1 ATS), just 1-3 on the road (1-2-1 ATS), and have been outscored by 7.5 points per game this season. They’ve lost their last 2 games. Dallas has lost 3 of 4 to fall to 3-4 overall (3-3-1 ATS). They are 2-1 at home (1-2 ATS) and have a -0.8 average scoring differential.
The Boys will be without CB Mike Jenkins but RB Felix Jones is a possibility after missing the last 2. Tarvaris Johnson should start for the Seahawks, which I suppose is preferable to Charlie Whitehurst.
Dallas has won the last two meetings in this series (both at home). The Cowboys are tied 2nd (or last) in the NFC East with the Eagles and Skins.
Sunday’s Late Games
Cincinnati (+3) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Bengals beat the spread
Comment: This is kind of a big game, as both of these teams are trying to be under-the-radar contenders. Cinci is 5-2 overall (6-1 ATS) and 3-1 on the road (4-0 ATS), while the Titans are 4-3 overall (3-4 ATS) and 3-1 at home (2-2 ATS). The Bengals have a +6.8 average scoring margin; the Titans actually have a -0.8 average scoring differential.
The Bengals will take a 4-game win streak into this one (4-0 ATS). They are tied for 2nd in the AFC North with the Ravens behind the Steelers. The Titans are in 2nd in the AFC South behind Houston.
Cedric Benson should play in this one, having served his suspension.
The Titans won the last meeting (at Cincinnati) in 2008. The Bengals won the last meeting here in 2005.
Denver (+9) @ Oakland
Pick: Raiders win but Broncos beat the spread
Comment: Denver looked absolutely pathetic last week in their loss to the Lions at home. Tim Tebow continues to flounder and will be making his first trip into Oakland as starter. RB Willis McGahee will miss the game with a broken hand.
However, the last time we saw the Raiders they were a total mess. They are still trying to get adjusted with Carson Palmer and RB Darren McFadden is dealing with a foot injury. Even Sebastian Janikowski has been hampered by a hamstring injury. Yes, the Raiders are coming off of a bye. Yes, they’ve lost their last 8 games out of the bye week!
The Broncos are 2-5 overall (2-5 ATS), 1-2 on the road (2-1 ATS), and they have a -9.6 average scoring margin. They have lost 4 of their last 5. They are 1-3 in their last 4 ATS. Oakland is 4-3 overall (5-2 ATS), 2-2 at home (2-2 ATS), and they have a -2.5 average scoring differential. They are tied for 1st in the AFC West with San Diego and Kansas City.
The Raiders defeated the Broncos in Denver, 23-20, in week 1 for their 4th straight win over their longtime rivals. The last meeting here was in December of last season with the Raiders winning 39-23, but the Broncos have won 6 of their last 8 games at Oakland.
New York Giants (+9) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Giants beat the spread
Comment: Some bad memories here for the Pats and their fans. Hell, some bad memories for anyone who has spent much of their life longing for a team to shut the surviving members of the ’72 Dolphins up for eternity. This is the first meeting between these two since Super Bowl XLII. The Pats have won the last 4 during the regular season against the G-Men, including the last time here in 2003.
The Giants, as usual, are a banged up football team. RB Ahmad Bradshaw, DE Osi Umenyiora, tackle Stacy Andrews, WR Hakeem Nicks, and CB Prince Amukamara are all questionable with various injuries. For the Patriots, return man Julian Edelman is a bit of a question mark after he was booked on charges of being overly aggressive with a broad at a bar or something. DE Shaun Ellis is dealing with a rib injury.
The Giants, as usual, have also been fluky good on the field. They are 5-2 overall (3-3-1 ATS) and in 1st in the NFC East but they aren’t getting much respect. This is mostly because they don’t deserve any respect. They’ve beaten crappy teams and needed ever break to do it. They’re 2-1 on the road (2-1 ATS). The G-Men have just a +1.5 average scoring margin despite being 3 games over .500. They’ve won 2 straight and 5 of 6 but they are 0-2-1 in their last 3 ATS.
The Pats are 5-2 overall (4-3 ATS), 3-0 at home (2-1 ATS), and tied for 1st with the Bills in the AFC East. They have outscored opponents by 6.0 points per game this season. The Pats have lost 2 straight ATS.
St. Louis (+3.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals win but Rams beat the spread
Comment: This is easily the least useful matchup of the week. The Rams are 1-6 overall (1-6 ATS) and 0-3 on the road (0-3 ATS), while the Cards are 1-6 overall (3-4 ATS) and 1-2 at home (1-2 ATS). The Rams have a -15.0 average scoring differential; the Cards have a -5.7 average scoring margin.
The Rams snapped a 7-game losing skid with their inexplicable upset of the Saints last week. Arizona has lost 6 in a row. They covered in their loss to the Ravens last week to snap their 4-game losing streak ATS.
RB Beanie Wells is probable for Arizona. TE Todd Heap has missed the last 3 with a hamstring injury and is questionable this week. LB Joey Porter missed last week with a knee injury and has probably already quit on the season. QB Kevin Kolb is dealing with turf toe. QB Sam Bradford missed the last 2 games for St. Louis with an ankle injury and is questionable for this Sunday. If Bradford can’t go it will be Jay Feeley again.
St. Louis won here last December (19-6) to snap an inconceivable 8-game losing streak against the Arizona Cardinals.
Green Bay (-5.5) @ San Diego
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: Obviously Green Bay is the best team in football but I would ordinarily look at this as a pretty tough contest, on the road, against a talented team. However, the Packers are coming off of a bye and are healthy, while the Chargers are on a short week and are banged up. LB Frank Zombo, WR Greg Jennings, and CB Sam Shields are all probable for the Packers. RB Curtis Brinkley (concussion), RB Ryan Mathews (groin), RB Michael Tolbert (hamstring), and LB Shaun Phillips (foot) are all banged up and questionable for the Chargers. The Packers won their last 2 games out of their bye week by a combined score of 57-3.
Green Bay is 7-0 overall (5-2 ATS) and 4-0 on the road (2-2 ATS). The Chargers are 4-3 overall (2-5 ATS) and 3-0 at home (1-2 ATS). The Packers have outscored opponents by 12.8 points a game this season. They have won 13 straight going back to last season and have won 7 straight on the road. They are 11-3 in their last 14 ATS and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 on the road.
San Diego has lost 2 straight (0-2 ATS) and they are coming home after 3 straight on the road. They have a +0.3 average scoring margin and they are now tied for 1st in the AFC West with the Chiefs and Raiders.
The Packers are obviously alone in 1st in the NFC North. They are 8-1 all-time against the Chargers (5-0 on the road) and they have won the last 5 meetings (last loss in 1984). Green Bay won the last meeting in 2007 and the last meeting in SD in 2003.
Sunday Night’s Game
Baltimore (+3) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: We all know what this one’s about. Not much setup necessary. Baltimore has lost 2 straight ATS but they are 5-2 overall (4-3 ATS), 1-2 on the road (1-2 ATS), and they have a +10.7 average scoring margin. The Steelers are 6-2 overall (4-4 ATS), 4-0 at home (3-1 ATS), and have outscored opponents by 4.6 points per game.
Baltimore smoked Pittsburgh at home, 35-7, in week 1. Since then the Steelers have won 6 of 7, including their last 4. Baltimore has looked terrible in their last two games, losing badly at Jacksonville and barely winning at home against Arizona.
Judging by recent performances, the Steelers definitely have the initiative. However, Pittsburgh is fairly banged up at the moment. WR Emmanuel Sanders is dealing with a knee injury and the recent passing of his mother and is questionable for this Sunday night. WR Hines Ward did not play against the Patriots due to an ankle injury and he is questionable this week. On the defensive side the Steelers have 3 ailing linebackers. James Farrior missed last week and is questionable with a calf injury. James Harrison has been sidelined the last 4 games with a broken eye socket and is doubtful for this game. LaMarr Woodley is also doubtful with a hamstring issue. Pittsburgh’s defense is built around their great linebackers. Their depth will surely be tested.
Pittsburgh won at home in the playoffs against the Ravens last year but lost at home to the Ravens in the regular season. The Steelers have won 6 of their last 9 against Baltimore overall and 8 of 10 against Baltimore at home. The Steelers are a half game up on the Ravens and Bengals in the AFC North.
Monday Night’s Game
Chicago (+9) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles win but Bears beat the spread
Comment: This would be a big win for the Bears and a really big loss for the Eagles. The Bears are coming off of their bye and have won 2 in a row (2-0 ATS). The Eagles have also won 2 in a row (2-0 ATS) since their 4 game losing skid. Chicago is 4-3 overall (3-4 ATS), 1-2 on the road (1-2 ATS), and they have a +1.2 average scoring margin. The Eagles are 3-4 overall (3-4 ATS) and 1-2 at home (1-2 ATS). Despite the losing record they have a +3.9 average scoring differential.
Last year the Bears defeated Philly 31-26 but that was at home. They did win the last time here in 2007 and they have won 3 of the last 4 in this series.
The Bears are in 3rd place in the NFC North. Philly is tied for 2nd (or last) in the NFC East with the Skins and Cowboys.
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