Last Week’s Record
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 7-3; Vs. Spread: 5-5)
Overall (Straight Up: 40-13; Vs. Spread: 22-31; Moneyline Upsets: 1-0)
Season Record
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 55-35; Vs. Spread: 38-51-1)
Overall (Straight Up: 321-117; Vs. Spread: 207-219-5; Moneyline Upsets: 13-16)
Week 9 Review: This isn’t going well.
Week 10 Preview: Not too many great games this weekend but of course there is THE game on Saturday night. Also, there’s football every day again this week. I’m hoping for a once-in-a-year 85% ATS week. As always, much help from Phil Steele and Covers.com on the comments.
Saturday
Game 1: Kansas State (+20.5) @ Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State covers
Comments: Kansas State (7-1 overall, 6-2 ATS) was exposed last week, losing 58-17 to Oklahoma at home, and being outgained by 450 yards. Oklahoma State (8-0 overall, 7-1 ATS) just rolled on last week against Baylor. The Cowboys have now won 9 straight going back to their bowl game. They’ve won 7 straight ATS. The Wildcats are 3-0 on the road (3-0 ATS), while the Cowboys are 4-0 at home (3-1 ATS).
Oklahoma State won in Manhattan last year (24-14) without Justin Blackmon, and won the last meeting here in 2007 (41-34). Okie State has won 3 of the last 4 against KSU. Their win in 2003 snapped a 9-game losing skid against the Wildcats. The last time Ok State won 3 straight against KSU was during a 6-game win streak from 1984-1989. Oklahoma State has won the last 2 at home against Kansas State (KSU’s last win in Stillwater was in 1999).
This series pits a couple of “little brothers” against each other, as both teams have traditionally been weaker than their more prestigious in-state rivals (Kansas and Oklahoma). The series goes back to 1908 and Oklahoma State holds a 35-22 edge all-time. KSU won the first 4 meetings and 6 of the first 7 through 1936. Oklahoma State then won 11 in a row from 1947-1962. The two teams split 8 meetings from 1964-1971. The Cowboys then went on another run of domination, winning 16 of 18 from 1972-1989. At that point Oklahoma State held a 32-12 edge in the all-time series. But Kansas State won 9 straight from 1990 through 2002. Oklahoma State has won 3 of 4 since.
The Cowboys are alone in 1st in the Big XII at 5-0. With one of the SEC teams guaranteed to lose this weekend, Oklahoma State is in good position to make the BCS title game if they can win out. KSU is now tied for 2nd in the Big XII with Oklahoma at 4-1 (obviously Oklahoma would have the tie-breaker at this point) but everything is still alive for Kansas State. The Wildcats need to win this game (and the rest of their games) and then hope that OK State beats Oklahoma in the season finale to have a chance to win.
Game 2: Texas A&M (+13.5) @ Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma covers
Comments: This game isn’t nearly as big as I expected it to be. When I made my picks back in August, I thought there would be two matchups of 8-0 teams this week: LSU-Alabama and A&M-Oklahoma. I certainly never expected these two teams to have 4 losses between them (3 at home, the other at a neutral site!!!).
A&M looked to be putting the collapses of earlier in the season behind them before they did it again at home last week, eventually losing 31-38 in OT to Mizzu. Oklahoma rebounded from their inexplicable home loss to Texas Tech by demolishing KSU 58-17 on the road. Oklahoma is 7-1 overall (5-3 ATS) and 3-1 at home (2-2 ATS), while Texas A&M is now just 5-3 overall (2-6 ATS) and 2-1 on the road (0-3 ATS).
The only bad news from last week for the Sooners was that RB Dominique Whaley broke his ankle and is out for the year. The Sooners certainly have other options at RB. However, Whaley’s absence against Texas Tech (due to a different injury) was in my opinion one of the more underrated factors in that stunning defeat.
Last season A&M stunned Oklahoma at home (33-19) to snap a 7-game losing skid against the Sooners. Oklahoma was shutout in the 1st half and blew a slew of opportunities in the 2nd half. A&M has lost 6 straight in Norman by an average of 39 points per game. The Aggies last win in Norman was in 1997 and they haven’t won back to back games against the Sooners since 1997-98.
This series goes back to 1903 but it hasn’t been played that often. Not surprisingly, Oklahoma holds an 18-11 edge all-time. The Sooners won the first ever meeting, but the Aggies won 3 straight from 1907-1912. The two teams didn’t face each other again until 1944. They would then play each other 8 consecutive seasons, with Oklahoma going 6-2. At that point Oklahoma held a 7-5 edge in the all-time series. The series then went on an even more extended hiatus, not to be broken until 1993. The Sooners won in 1993 but then A&M won 4 straight. Through 1998, the Aggies actually held a 9-8 edge in the all-time series. However, the Sooners have won 10 of 12 since 1999.
Oklahoma is tied 2nd in the Big XII with KSU at 4-1, while the Aggies are now in 4th in the Big XII at 3-2. If Texas A&M won out it would still be a very impressive 9-3 season, but clearly they are having to readjust their goals at this point. The Sooners are probably out of the hunt for the BCS title game, but things might feel different if Stanford loses to Oregon in a couple of weeks. That might open a door if the Oklahoma could win out and defeat Oklahoma State in the season finale. Strangely, the Sooners then might be hurt by the fact that the other 1-loss teams would be playing conference title games, while they would be done (something that hasn’t been the case in the past). And then there’s Boise State to consider. But obviously this is all well in the future. At any rate, if Oklahoma wins out they will be the Big XII champs once again, so they haven’t had to readjust their sights too much.
Game 3: Texas Tech (+11.5) @ Texas
Pick: Texas covers
Comments: While most of us concluded that Texas Tech’s win at Oklahoma was something of a fluke, there really wasn’t much that seemed fluky about it outside of the long weather delay. It really wasn’t a game of turnovers and bad bounces and special teams mistakes and bad calls. If anything, Tommy Tuberville’s questionable moves almost allowed Oklahoma to steal the game back.
However, by the end of play last Saturday Texas Tech’s win at Oklahoma was looking like one of the all-time flukes. While Oklahoma went on the road and beat previously undefeated Kansas State 58-17, Texas Tech somehow lost 41-7 at home to an Iowa State team that had its last 4 games (each by at least 16 points and by an average of 24.3 points). They were outgained by a stunning 222 yards.
The Red Raiders are now 5-3 overall (5-3 ATS) and 3-0 on the road (3-0 ATS). They have perhaps the most impressive win in all of college football this season, and yet they are still just 1-3 over their last 4 games.
The Longhorns have been taking it easy since getting destroyed by the Oklahoma teams in back to back weeks. They shutout Kansas 43-0 at home last week to get to 5-2 overall (4-3 ATS) and 3-2 at home (2-3 ATS). They outgained the Jayhawks by 544 yards last week but they are still just 1-2 over their last 3 games.
Last year Texas won 24-14 at Texas Tech and they won 34-24 at home in 2009. The Horns have won 2 straight and 7 of 8 against Tech. They’ve won 10 of the last 12 against the Red Raiders, with the 10 wins coming by an average of 21 points per game, and the losses coming by 4 points and 6 points. Last year they gave up just 144yards against Texas Tech. Texas has won 6 straight at home against Texas Tech (last home loss in 1997).
This series goes back to 1928 and as you would imagine Texas has dominated, holding a 45-15 edge in the all-time series. The Horns won the first 7 meetings and 15 of the first 16 from 1928-1966. From 1967 through 1980 Texas went 9-5 against Texas Tech. The Horns then won 5 straight from 1981-1985 and at that point they held a 29-6 edge in the series all-time. But then from 1986-2002 Texas went just 9-8 against the Red Raiders. Since 2003, however, the Horns are 7-1 against Texas Tech.
At 2-2, Texas is 5th in the Big XII, while Texas Tech is tied for 6th at 2-3. Beyond the rivalry, this is a big game for both teams. They both need 1 more win to get bowl eligible and neither team has a gimmie left on the schedule.
Game 4: Michigan (-4.5) @ Iowa
Pick: Michigan covers
Comments: Certainly this would have been a bigger game if Iowa hadn’t somehow come-from-ahead to lose 21-22 at Minnesota last week. Still, this is an important game, as Michigan is 7-1 overall (6-2 ATS) and in the thick of things in the Big Ten. Iowa was very much in the thick of things in the Big Ten before last week’s queef. They are now 5-3 overall (3-5 ATS) but they are 5-0 at home (3-2 ATS). The Wolverines beat Purdue 36-14 last week but they are just 1-1 on the road (1-1 ATS). Iowa has lost 2 straight and 3 of 4 ATS.
In each of the last 2 meetings (both Iowa wins) Michigan has been -4 in the turnover battle. Last year Iowa won 38-28 at Michigan. In 2009 Iowa won 30-28 at home over the Wolverines. This is an interesting series in that it goes back to 1900 and has been played regularly throughout, yet it has never been played on an annual basis. As you would expect, Michigan holds a significant edge in the all-time series, but you might not realize how one-sided it has been: 40-12-4 in favor of the Wolverines.
Iowa won the first meeting but Michigan went 4-2-1 against the Hawkeyes through 1929. The Wolverines then reeled off 11 straight over Iowa to take a 15-2-1 lead in the series. From 1957 through 1963 Michigan went just 1-2-2 against Iowa but then won 9 straight from 1964-1978. At that point Michigan held a 25-4-3 edge in the all-time series. Things tightened up, as Michigan went just 5-4-1 against Iowa from 1981-1990, with Iowa winning back to back games against the Wolverines for the first time ever in 1984 and 1985.
Michigan went on another 7-game win streak in the series from 1991-2001 but they are just 3-4 against Iowa since 2002. The Hawkeyes have won the last 2 against Michigan and they have never won 3 straight over the Wolverines.
Michigan is tied for 1st in the Big Ten Legs at 3-1, while Iowa is 4th at 2-2. Iowa needs 1 more win to get bowl eligible but their schedule is tough the rest of the way: vs. Michigan, vs. Michigan State, at Purdue, at Nebraska.
Game 5: Army (+15) @ Air Force
Pick: Air Force covers
Comments: Both teams come into this one off of shutout victories. Army won 55-0 over Fordham last week, while Air Force won 42-0 at New Mexico to snap a 3-game losing skid. Army is 3-5 overall (4-4 ATS) but 0-4 on the road (0-4 ATS). Air Force is 4-4 overall (3-5 ATS) and 2-2 at home (but 0-4 ATS).
The health of the two starting QB’s should have a big impact on this one. AF QB Tim Jefferson suffered a nose injury last week but he is probable for this game. Army QB Trent Steelman—and yes, I believe there have been at least 2 Trent Steelman’s in the porno industry—is dealing with an ankle injury and is unlikely to play this Saturday.
Air Force won at Army last year (42-22) for their 5th straight win against the Black Knights. In 2009 AF won 35-7 at home against Army. They’ve won 2 in a row at home against Army (last home loss in 2005).
Of the 3 armed forces matchups (Army vs. Navy, Army vs. Air Force, Navy vs. Air Force) this one probably has the least history. This game was first played in 1959 (a 13-13 tie) and has been played every year since 1971. Air Force holds a commanding 31-13-1 edge in the all-time series. The series was 11-11-1 through 1988 but AF has won 20 of 22 since. The Falcons have won 5 straight and 13 of 14 in this series. They’ve won 15 of 16 at home against Army since 1979.
Last season Air Force won the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, snapping Navy’s 7-year run. The Falcons will be trying to make it 2 years in a row with a win on Saturday, as they won at Navy 35-34 in OT earlier this season. The Black Knights could still win the CIC Trophy for the first time since 1996 if they upset AF this weekend and then beat Navy in the final week of the season.
Army needs to go 3-1 over their last 4 games to make it to a bowl game for a second straight year, and their remaining schedule isn’t easy: at Air Force, vs. Rutgers, at Temple, vs. Navy. Air Force needs to go 2-2 the rest of the way (vs. Army, vs. Wyoming, vs. UNLV, at Colorado State) to keep their bowl streak alive.
Game 6: Cincinnati (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Cincinnati covers
Comments: Okay, so this isn’t much of a big game, but just remember that the winner of the Big East conference is going to get an automatic bid to one of the BCS games. So it does matter whether we like it or not.
Cinci is 6-1 overall (5-2 ATS) and 2-1 on the road (2-1 ATS). The Bearcats have won 5 straight (4-1 ATS) and they are coming off of a bye. Pittsburgh is 4-4 overall (3-5 ATS) and 4-2 at home (3-3 ATS). The Panthers won 35-20 over UConn last Wednesday.
Despite average talent and a new head coach, many pegged Pitt as Big East favorite by default this season, but they’ve been crushed by injuries. 8 players have gone down to season ending injuries, including 4 starters, the most notable of which is RB Ray Graham. Another starter--OL Lucas Nix—has missed the last 3 games with a knee injury. Cincinnati has lost just 1 starter for the season: CB Dominique Battle.
Pittsburgh won at Cinci last year, 28-10, while the Bearcats won the last time here in 2009, 45-44. This series goes back to 1921 but the two teams have only met 10 times, with the Panthers holding an 8-2 edge all-time. Pitt won the first 7 meetings (1921-22, 1979, 1981, 2005-07). The rivalry has really been born in the last few years, with the Bearcats getting back to back huge victories over Pitt in 2008 and 2009. Both of those games ended up deciding the Big East championship.
Cincinnati is in 1st in the Big East at 2-0, while Pitt is tied for 2nd at 2-1. Pittsburgh needs to go 2-2 over their final 4 games to get bowl eligible and that isn’t a slam-dunk. Pitt’s remaining schedule isn’t easy but it isn’t exactly a gauntlet: vs. Cincinnati, at Louisville, at West Virginia, vs. Syracuse.
Game 7: North Carolina (-3.5) @ NC State
Pick: North Carolina covers
Comments: Yeah, not very important but at least it’s a rivalry game. Originally I had Mizzu-Baylor in this spot. UNC beat Wake Forest 49-24 last week to get to 6-3 overall (4-5 ATS). They are just 1-3 in their last 4 ATS. NC State got blanked 34-0 at FSU last week to fall to 4-4 overall (2-5-1 ATS). The Heels are 1-2 on the road (1-2 ATS) while the Wolfpack are 3-1 at home (1-2-1 ATS).
North Carolina State has won straight over their in-state rivals, including 2 in a row at home (last UNC win at Raleigh was in 2005), but it hasn’t been easy. NC State won at UNC 29-25 last year, and won the last time here (2009), 28-27.
These two teams first met in 1894 and they actually played two weeks in a row that year (44-point and 16-point shutout wins for the Heels). This game has been played annually since 1953 and has been characterized by a number of streaks (most of them by North Carolina). North Carolina holds a 63-31-6 edge in the all-time series.
The Tar Heels won the first 6 meetings and went 9-0-4 against the Wolfpack through 1919. NC State won 2 in a row in 1920 and 1921, but the Heels went 5-3-1 against NC State from 1920-1928. UNC then went 11-0-1 against NC State from 1929 through 1940. NC State won back to back games again in 1941 and 1942, before UNC won 9 in a row from 1943-1955. At that point the Tar Heels held a 34-5-6 edge in the all-time series. NC State went 13-10 against UNC from 1956-1978, but then UNC won 7 straight from 1979 through 1985. The Pack went 6-1 against UNC from 1986-1992, including a 5-game win streak (88-92), but the Heels then won 7 straight from 1993-1999. Since 2000 NC State is 7-4 against UNC.
The Wolfpack have won 3 of the last 4 against UNC at home. At 2-3, UNC is tied for 4th in the ACC Coastal. NC State is 1-3 and in 4th in the ACC Atlantic. North Carolina State is one of the few FBS teams that have played 2 games against FCS teams this season, meaning they will actually have to win 7 games to be bowl eligible. To get to 7-5 they’ll need to go 3-1 in their final 4 games (vs. UNC, at BC, vs. Clemson, vs. Maryland).
Game 8: South Carolina (+4.5) @ Arkansas
Pick: Arkansas covers
Comments: These two teams have kind of been forgotten; Arkansas because they aren’t LSU or Alabama; South Carolina because without RB Marcus Lattimore they don’t have a Chinaman’s chance of beating Alabama or LSU in the SEC championship game (if they make it that far). Arkansas hasn’t lost a talent the likes of Lattimore but they have seen 3 running backs go down (Knile Davis, Broderick Green, Kody Walker).
Both teams have been struggling the last few weeks but have managed to survive. South Carolina has won at Mississippi State (14-12) and at Tennessee (14-3) in their last 2 games, while Arkansas has won at Mississippi (29-24) and at Vandy (31-28) in their last 2 games. Both teams are 7-1 overall and 4-4 ATS. The Gamecocks are 3-0 on the road (2-1 ATS) while the Hogs are 5-0 at home (4-1 ATS). South Carolina has won 3 in a row (2-1 ATS) while Arkansas has won 4 straight (but lost 2 straight ATS).
Last year the Hogs won at South Carolina, 41-20. Last time here (2009) Arkansas won 33-16. The Hogs have won 2 straight and 4 of 5 against the Gamecocks. Arkansas has won the last 2 at home against South Carolina (last SC win at Arkansas was in 2005).
These two latecomers to the SEC first met in 1992 and have played each other every season since. The Hogs hold a 12-7 edge in the all-time series. Arkansas won the first 2 meetings and 3 of the first 4 but the two teams were 3-3 against each other through 1997. Arkansas has won 9 of 13 against SC since then. The Hogs are 7-2 against the Gamecocks at home.
South Carolina is tied for 1st in the SEC East at 5-1, while Arkansas is 3rd in the SEC West at 3-1. South Carolina can clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win this weekend and a win next week against Florida.
Game 9: LSU (+5) @ Alabama
Pick: LSU pulls off the upset
Comments: This is obviously the biggest game of the year to date and will probably be the biggest game of the 2011 season other than the BCS title game. These two teams have dominated the competition all year and are clearly the best two teams in the nation in my opinion.
Unfortunately the loser will almost certainly be out of the national title hunt. If that ends up being Bama, then maybe it isn’t unfortunate, because it would be a little unfair to LSU for them to have to beat Bama on the road, win the SEC championship game, and then beat Bama again in the BCS title game. If it’s LSU, that’s unfortunate, because they probably won’t get a rematch on a neutral field. Of course, the winner could somehow lose one of their last 3 regular season games or the SEC championship game, and then things would get really complicated. But let’s just focus on the game for now.
Both teams are 8-0 overall and tied for 1st in the SEC West at 5-0 in conference. LSU is 6-2 ATS; Bama is 7-1 ATS. The Tigers are 3-0 on the road (3-0 ATS) while the Tide are 5-0 at home (4-1 ATS). LSU has won 9 in a row going back to their bowl game (7-2 ATS). Bama has won 9 in a row going back to their bowl game (8-1 ATS). LSU has won 3 straight and 5 of 6 ATS. Bama has won 5 straight ATS. Both teams are coming off of byes.
LSU won last year at home, 24-21. Bama won the last time here (2009), 24-15. LSU’s last win at Bama was in 2007 (41-34). Les Miles is now 2-2 against Nick Saban.
Alabama is perhaps the greatest college football program of all-time, yet their sizeable edge in this series is still perhaps a bit surprising. These two first met in 1895 and Bama holds a 45-24-5 edge in the all-time series. LSU won the first 2 meetings, but Bama had a 12-3-3 edge through 1945. LSU went 5-3-1 against the Tide from 1946-1958 but Bama won 5 in a row from 1964-1968. LSU then won 2 in a row before Alabama reeled off 11 straight victories from 1971-1981. The Tigers went 4-2-1 against the Tide from 1982-1988, but Bama won 9 of 11 from 1989-1999. At that point they held a 42-16-5 edge in the all-time series.
LSU has won 8 of 11 since 2000 and 6 of the last 8. The Tigers are 7-4 in their last 11 at Tuscaloosa and had won 4 straight at Bama prior to 2009.
Game 10: Oregon (-14.5) @ Washington
Pick: Washington beats the spread
Comments: This is kind of an under the radar game. Oregon has been dealing with injuries but they’ve looked a little bit vulnerable lately. Washington couldn’t hang with Nebraska or Stanford but this game is in Seattle. QB Darron Thomas has been shaky for the Ducks lately and Bryan Bennett actually came off the bench to lead Oregon last week at Wazu (43-28). We’ll see what happens with that situation. While the Oregon running backs should all be available this week, they won’t have star CB/PR Cliff Harris.
The Ducks are 7-1 overall (4-3-1 ATS) and 2-0 on the road (2-0 ATS). They’ve won 7 straight since the season opening loss to LSU (4-2-1 ATS). Washington is 6-2 overall (6-2 ATS) and 5-0 at home (4-1 ATS). The Huskies won 42-31 over Arizona last week and they are 10-2 in their last 12 games going back to last season (10-2 ATS).
Last year Oregon smashed Washington 53-16 at home. In 2009 they won at Seattle, 43-19. The Ducks have won 7 straight against Washington and all 7 win have been by at least 20 points (outgaining by an average of 208 yards per game). They’ve won 2 straight on the road against the Huskies. The last Washington win over Oregon was at home in 2003.
This series dates back to 1900. Washington holds a 58-40-5 edge in the all-time series. Oregon won the first meeting and held a 4-1-1 edge through 1907. Washington won the next 6 but then Oregon went 4-1-2 over the next 7, making the all-time series 8-8-3 through 1924. The Huskies then won 3 in a row before Oregon went 5-0-1 against Washington in the next 6. Through 1933, Oregon held a 13-11-4 edge in the all-time series.
Then Washington took over. From 1934 through 1960 the Huskies went 20-6 against the Ducks. The two teams went 6-6-1 against each other in 13 games from 1961-1973, but Washington won 17 of 20 from 1974-1993. At that point the Huskies held a 54-28-5 edge in the all-time series. They went just 4-5 against the Ducks from 1994-2003, and the Ducks have won the last 7 since then.
Other Games
Tuesday
Northern Illinois (+7.5) @ Toledo (NIU beats the spread)
Wednesday
Temple (-4) @ Ohio (Ohio beats the spread)
Thursday
Akron (+14) @ Miami (Ohio) (Akron beats the spread)
Florida State (-14.5) @ Boston College (FSU covers)
Tulsa (+1.5) @ Central Florida (Tulsa pulls off the upset)
Friday
Central Michigan (Pick) @ Kent State (Kent State wins)
USC (-21.5) @ Colorado (USC covers)
Saturday
Minnesota (+28) @ Michigan State (Michigan State covers)
Indiana (+27.5) @ Ohio State (Ohio State covers)
Louisville (+14) @ West Virginia (Louisville beats the spread)
Syracuse (+2) @ Connecticut (Cuse pulls off the upset)
Vanderbilt (+13) @ Florida (Vandy beats the spread)
Ball State (+2) @ Eastern Michigan (BSU pulls off the upset)
New Mexico State (+34.5) @ Georgia (NMS beats the spread)
Kansas (+14.5) @ Iowa State (Iowa State covers)
Virginia (-1.5) @ Maryland (UVA covers)
Missouri (+2) @ Baylor (Baylor covers)
TCU (-19) @ Wyoming (Wyoming beats the spread)
Tulane (+24.5) @ SMU (SMU covers)
Duke (+15) @ Miami (Duke beats the spread)
Purdue (+25.5) @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin covers)
Troy (+6.5) @ Navy (Troy beats the spread)
Stanford (-21) @ Oregon State (Stanford covers)
Louisiana-Monroe (+5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL covers)
UTEP (-1) @ Rice (UTEP covers)
Northwestern (+17) @ Nebraska (Nebraska covers)
Mississippi (-1.5) @ Kentucky (Mississippi covers)
Southern Mississippi (-8.5) @ East Carolina (Southern Miss covers)
Idaho (+8.5) @ San Jose State (Idaho beats the spread)
Florida International (-3) @ Western Kentucky (WK pulls off the upset)
Arkansas State (-17) @ Florida Atlantic (Ark State covers)
Washington State (+10) @ California (Washington State beats the spread)
Utah (+3.5) @ Arizona (Utah beats the spread)
Notre Dame (-14) @ Wake Forest (WF beats the spread)
South Florida (+2.5) @ Rutgers (Rutgers covers)
Middle Tennessee State (+20.5) @ Tennessee (Tennessee covers)
Houston (-27.5) @ UAB (Houston covers)
Arizona State (-9.5) @ UCLA (ASU covers)
New Mexico (+35.5) @ San Diego State (SD State covers)
Louisiana Tech (+3) @ Fresno State (LT beats the spread)
Boise State (-41) @ UNLV (Boise State covers)
Utah State (+3.5) @ Hawaii (Utah State beats the spread)
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