Wednesday, November 2, 2011

The College Football Blog: 2011 Power Rankings (After Week 9)

Power Rankings after Week 9

1. LSU 8-0 (1st)

2. Alabama 8-0 (2nd)

3. Oklahoma State 8-0 (5th)

4. Oregon 7-1 (3rd)

5. Stanford 8-0 (4th)

6. Boise State 7-0 (6th)

7. Oklahoma 7-1 (8th)

8. Nebraska 7-1 (NR)

9. Clemson 8-1 (7th)

10. Arizona State 6-2 (14th)

11. Michigan State 6-2 (12th)

12. USC 6-2 (NR)

13. Wisconsin 6-2 (9th)

14. South Carolina 7-1 (NR)

15. Arkansas 7-1 (10th)

Out: Texas A&M (11th); Kansas State (13th); Virginia Tech (15th).

Explanation: Okay, let’s get one thing straight right off the bat: after the top 5 or 6 or 7 teams, I have no clue what’s going on. I think about teams 10-15 for an hour and come up with an order that somewhat makes sense to me. Then I think about it for 30 more minutes and I come up with a completely different order. I’m guessing and basically throwing darts after about the 7th or 8th team. And even within the top 10 I’m basically having to throw out a week of results and saying, “well, that was just a fluke,” or “yeah, they just got their asses handed to them but they’re still the team I feel most confident in.” This season has definitely made me think that the top 15 should be shrunk back down to the top 10.

LSU and Bama were both off last week and they obviously hold on to the top two spots heading into their huge showdown this Saturday night. They are a level above everybody else in my opinion.

The one team that is nearly keeping pace is Oklahoma State. They were one of only 4 teams to move up in my rankings this week, climbing 2 spots to #3. The Cowboys made Baylor look like a joke last Saturday on their way to 8-0. Of course we are going to question their defense, but it’s hard to know whether they are tough defensively or not when they are always playing with a 30-point lead. They get out to huge leads and then the opposition puts up garbage points against the 2nd and 3rd string, so scoring defense and total defense stats won’t tell the whole story.

Oregon and Stanford each dropped a spot this week to #4 and #5 respectively. The Ducks struggled with Wazu and had to have a backup QB come on for Darron Thomas to get things going in the 2nd half. On one hand it’s impressive that they have the depth and talent to do things like that. On the other hand it was a shaky performance and you don’t want QB questions in week 9. Stanford’s performance against USC was also a mixed bag. On the one hand it was good to see them fight through some adversity and win on the road against a tough opponent. On the other hand they could have easily lost and did not look as impressive as they have every other week of the season.

Boise State was off and stays at #6. Oklahoma climbs a spot this week to #7, as the Sooners rebounded with a dominant performance on the road against undefeated KSU. The loss to Texas Tech looks like one of the bigger flukes in recent memory. Losing Dominique Whaley for the rest of the season is a blow but Oklahoma is not short on talent at any position.

Nebraska jumps back into the rankings this week at #8. I had put Nebraska out of mind when they were as lackadaisical as usual during the first few weeks of the season and then got bulldozed by Wisconsin. However, they have since won 3 straight, including a win over a legit Ohio State team and last Saturday’s shutdown of Michigan State, one of the hottest teams in the country.

Clemson lost for the first time on Saturday, falling on the road at Georgia Tech, but the Tigers only fall 2 spots in my rankings to #9 this week. There just aren’t that many good teams this year and Clemson had been unstoppable until this past weekend. The defense is questionable but they are one of the most explosive teams in the nation. They feel safe at #9, regardless of how they played their last time out.

The rest of the power 15 is sort of mishmash for me. Arizona State makes the biggest jump in my rankings this week, climbing 4 spots to #10. Do I really think they are the #10 strongest team in the country? I guess. Maybe. They just haven’t done anything to make me think less of them in a while. I know that sounds like the way the traditional polls work, but considering that I actually moved Michigan State up a spot to #11 this week, I don’t think we have to worry about my rankings becoming too much like the top 25 polls. MSU has gone through a gauntlet over the last month and they were bound to run out of steam at some point. They still feel safe at #11.

USC jumps into the rankings at #12. Maybe the Trojans just played well on Saturday night because that was like their bowl game and they will be a different team this Friday. I don’t know. They looked pretty damn dangerous last week and they are as good a choice here as any other team.

Wisconsin takes a big fall this week, dropping 4 spots to #13. Most people would have the Badgers out of the top 15 at this point, but they’ve lost a couple of nail biters on the road, in very hostile environments, against good teams. They still feel safe at #13.

South Carolina is the 3rd new team in my rankings this week, checking in at #14. I had dismissed the Gamecocks when Marcus Lattimore went down for the year but that SC defense has been much better since then. And again, they are as legit as any other team at #14.

Another SEC team rounds out the power rankings at #15: Arkansas. Arkansas was sloppy and sluggish and lucky to avoid disaster for the 2nd week in a row last Saturday, this time narrowly escaping against Vandy. The Razorbacks took the biggest fall of any team still in my power rankings this week. I dropped them 5 spots in my rankings to #15. They aren’t anywhere near as good as the top 5 teams in the country, but they are still pretty safe at #15.

Texas A&M, KSU, and Virginia Tech all dropped out of my top 15 this week. A&M blew another lead and it’s time for me to give up on them. They are very talented and they could easily be 8-0 at this point, but they are just missing some very key ingredient. They fell out of my rankings from #11 this week. KSU fell out from #13. I haven’t totally given up on the Wildcats but they were certainly exposed by Oklahoma on Saturday. Finally, VT falls out of the rankings from #15 after they narrowly defeated Duke on Saturday. In all honesty, this year’s VT team is probably just average, and we knew this coming in.

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