Last Week: Vs. Spread: (8-6); Straight Up: (7-7)
Season: Vs. Spread: (65-60-5); Straight Up: (84-46)
Week 9 Review: It was a weird week. I normally would be happy with any week that I was over .500 ATS. But last week I only went .500 straight up. I was worried about picking so many road teams and underdogs to beat the spread but that actually worked out okay. Actually, the problem was that I didn’t pick enough road teams and underdogs to win straight up.
Week 10 Preview: There are several notable things about week 10. We get our first Thursday night game since opening week. We also get a break from the byes and have our first full slate since week 4. There are only 3 games in the late Sunday schedule. 8 of the 16 week 10 matchups are intradivisional games. Of the other 8 games, 2 are rematches of past Super Bowls (actually, the teams in both games have squared off in the Super Bowl twice), and 2 other games are rematches of famous/recent NFC Championship Games. The other 4 games are matchups of teams that were either born after 1975 or have moved locations since then. Finally, only 2 teams are favored by more than a touchdown in week 10.
Thursday Night’s Game
Oakland (+7) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Raiders beat the spread
Comment: This Thursday night game doesn’t really come at an opportune time for either team. It’ll be a very short week for a pair of teams coming off of long, tiring games. RB Darren McFadden (foot) is out for the Raiders. WR Malcolm Floyd (foot) is out for the Chargers. LB Shaun Phillips is doubtful for San Diego (another foot). However, RB Ryan Mathews is probable with a groin injury. Guard Kris Dielman is still out after suffering a concussion and a post-game seizure due to flying.
Both teams are 4-4 and tied with KC for 1st place in the AFC West (just 1 game in front of Denver!). The Raiders are 5-3 ATS; the Chargers are just 2-6 ATS. Oakland is a solid 2-1 on the road (3-0 ATS), while San Diego is 3-1 at home (just 1-3 ATS). The Raiders have been outscored by 4.0 points per game this season, while the Chargers have a -0.6 average scoring margin.
It was easy to see why the Raiders jumped at the opportunity to grab Carson Palmer, even though it did cost them money and draft picks. They were much improved last season and they had started off this season looking even better. Then Al Davis dies and Jason Campbell suffers a broken collarbone. Not wanting to lose the initiative, the Raiders made a deal for Palmer. So far it hasn’t worked out well. They’ve lost 2 in a row (0-2 ATS) and Palmer has fired 6 picks in a game and a half.
The Chargers got off to a better start than normal this year but they’ve lost 3 straight (0-3 ATS) and Philip Rivers has been terrible. He has thrown 14 picks, taken 19 sacks, and fumbled 7 times in 8 games.
This rivalry goes back to the AFL. The Raiders hold a 57-44-2 edge in the all-time series. These two teams met in the AFC Championship back in 1980, with the Oakland Raiders winning at San Diego, 34-27. San Diego has dominated the rivalry recently. They had won 13 straight going into last season but the Raiders swept the season series from the Chargers for the first time since 2001. The Raiders won 28-13 at San Diego, snapping a 7-game skid against the Chargers on the road.
Sunday’s Early Games
Jacksonville (-3) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Jags cover
Comment: It seems like the Colts have quit on the season. It’s almost understandable. They are 0-9 overall (2-7 ATS) and 0-4 at home (1-3 ATS). They have been outscored by a shocking 17.2 points per game. Going back to last season they have now lost 10 straight (2-8 ATS). They have lost 5 in a row ATS. The Jags are 2-6 overall (3-4-1 ATS) but 0-4 on the road (1-2-1 ATS). They have a -8.2 average scoring differential and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games. However, they will be coming off of a bye and they are 2-0-1 ATS in their last 3 games. They’re also playing the Colts.
During the bye Jax put WR Mike Sims Walker on IR with a knee injury. TE Dallas Clark is doubtful for Indy with a leg problem. This isn’t a matchup that will have much impact on the playoff picture. The Jags are in 3rd place in the AFC South and the Colts are obviously in last.
It’s no surprise that the Colts have a 15-5 edge all-time in this series and they are 9-3 against Jacksonville since 2005. These teams split the season series last year, with the Colts winning the 2nd game, at home, 34-24. It was their 5th win in their last 6 home games against the Jags. Jacksonville is just 2-4 out of their bye over the last 6 years.
By the way: in June, a QB battle between Blaine Gabbert and Curtis Painter would have seemed only slightly more likely than an Iron Chef cook-off between Blair Thomas and Lance Painter. Yet that is indeed what we will have in this game.
There actually is something important about this game. No one wants to go 0-16, regardless of who is available in the draft next year. This could be one of Indy’s best opportunities to get a win.
Denver (+3.5) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chiefs cover
Comment: Befuddling performances by these teams last week. The Broncos steamrolled the Raiders in Oakland, while the Chiefs got blowed out 31-3 at home by the previously winless Dolphins. That disappointing setback snapped a 4-game win streak (and a 5-game win streak ATS).
Denver is 3-5 overall (3-5 ATS) and 2-2 on the road (3-1 ATS). The Chiefs are now 4-4 overall (5-3 ATS) and 2-2 at home (2-2 ATS). KC is tied with San Diego and Oakland for 1st in the AFC West (again, just 1 game ahead of Denver!). At .500, the Chiefs actually have a worse average scoring differential (-8.7) than the Broncos (-6.6) who are 2 games below .500. Under Tim Tebow the Broncos have won 2 of their last 3 games (2-1 ATS).
This is another AFC West rivalry that goes back to the AFL. Kansas City holds a 55-47 edge in the all-time series. The teams split the season series last year. Kansas City snapped a 2-game losing streak to the Broncos at home with a 10-6 victory and they have now won 6 of the last 8 against Denver in KC. The Chiefs have won 2 of the last 3 in this series.
Pittsburgh (-3) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: I didn’t see the Steelers-Bengals matchups being big games this year but this will most certainly be an important battle. For the Bungles is will be about proving themselves (or starting to); for the Steelers it will be about avoiding a 2nd consecutive big loss within the division.
The Steelers lost in the final seconds to the Ravens at home last Sunday night (20-23), snapping a 4-game win streak. They are now a half game back of the Bengals and Ravens in the AFC North. Pittsburgh is 6-3 overall (4-5 ATS) and 2-2 on the road (1-3 ATS). Cincy is 6-2 overall (7-1 ATS) and 2-1 at home (2-1 ATS). The Bengals have won 5 straight. They’ve won 5 straight and 7 of 8 ATS. The Steelers have a +3.8 average scoring margin; the Bengals have a +6.9 average scoring margin.
WR Hines Ward left last week’s game with a concussion but is probable for this game. The Steelers missed linebackers James Farrior (calf) and LaMarr Woodley (hamstring) last week against Baltimore. Farrior has missed the last 2 games. Both are questionable for this week. WR Emmanuel Sanders had knee surgery and is out.
The Steelers of course have a commanding lead in the all-time series but it’s actually not as one-sided as I would have expected: 50-32. The Steelers are 17-6 against Cincinnati since 2000. The Bengals swept the series in 2009 and the Steelers swept the series last year. Pittsburgh won the last meeting 23-7 at home. They won the last time here, 27-21, and they’ve won 8 of their last 9 at Cincy.
Buffalo (+5.5) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Bills beat the spread
Comment: This is a biggie for both squads. The Bills are tied for 1st in the AFC East with the Patriots and Jets at 5-3 (4-3-1 ATS). The Cowboys are in 2nd in the NFC East at 4-4 (3-4-1 ATS). Buffalo is 1-2 on the road (1-1-1 ATS), while the Boys are 3-1 at home (just 1-3 ATS). The Bills have outscored opponents by 6.0 points per game this year but they have lost 2 of their last 3. The Boys have won 2 of their last 3 straight up but they have lost back to back games ATS. Their average scoring margin is +0.5.
Both teams are hurting. For Buffalo, NT Kyle Williams (foot) is on IR and K Ryan Lindell is out with a shoulder injury (shoulder?). RB Fred Jackson is probable for the Bills (neck); RB Felix Jones is questionable for Dallas (ankle, missed the last 3 games). Dallas punter Mat McBriar missed the last game with a foot injury and is questionable for this Sunday. WR Miles Austin and CB Mike Jenkins are out for Dallas with hamstring problems.
The Cowboys hold a 7-3 edge in the all-time series. They have won the last 2 meetings. They won the last time here in 2003 (10-6), and won the last meeting overall back in 2007, a miracle 25-24 victory in Buffalo on Monday Night Football. Trailing by 8, the Cowboys scored a TD with just seconds remaining, but they failed on the 2-point try that would have tied the game. It looked like Buffalo had hung on after all, but then the Cowboys recovered an onsides kick and booted a 53-yard FG to win it (Nick Folk’s first try was good but was waved off due to a late timeout; he then made the kick again).
It was the sort of loss the Bills have suffered seemingly dozens of times since the Music City Miracle (coincidently, Wade Phillips—coach of the Bills in the Music City Miracle game—got the win against Buffalo as coach of the Cowboys in that last meeting in 2007).
But of course this series is most notable for back to back Super Bowl matchups in the 90’s. Dallas destroyed the Bills in Super Bowl XXVII (1992), winning 52-17 in Pasadena. The next year the two teams met up again in Super Bowl XXVIII, this time in the Georgia Dome, and Dallas won a much more competitive game, 30-13.
New Orleans (+1) @ Atlanta
Pick: Saints pull off the upset
Comment: I’m sorry. I’m a lifelong Falcons fan and that means I’m conditioned to be pessimistic. And the Saints just scare me. That offense is hard to stop unless you get some turnovers or get some breaks on 3rd downs. That might sound like a recipe for stopping any offense but what I mean is that you usually need luck or a mistake by the Saints in order to stop them. New Orleans is a bad matchup for the Falcons in the same way that the Packers are a bad matchup: they have a bunch of good pass catchers and can spread out our defense and attack the weak spots.
The Saints are 6-3 overall (5-4 ATS) and in 1st place in the NFC South. The Falcons are just a half game back in 2nd place at 5-3 (4-4 ATS). New Orleans is 2-3 on the road (1-4 ATS) while the Falcons are 2-1 at home (2-1 ATS). The Falcons have a +2.4 average scoring margin and have won 3 games in a row (3-0 ATS). The Saints have a very impressive +9.1 average scoring differential but are just 2-2 in their last 4 games.
RB Mark Ingram has missed the last 2 games for the Saints and is questionable with a heel injury. LB Jonathan Vilma missed last week’s game with a knee problem and is questionable for this one. CB Tracy Porter is doubtful with a neck injury. I’m not looking forward to facing the Saints with Darren Sproles. In fact, I’ve been dreading it since the day they signed him last offseason.
The series between the Saints and Falcons isn’t as rich in history or bad blood as some other rivalries, but it’s the only traditional rivalry that either team has. The Falcons hold a 46-38 edge in the all-time series. The two teams split the season series last year, with the Saints winning at Atlanta, 17-14, on Monday Night Football in week 16. The Saints have had the upper hand in this series recently, winning 8 of the last 10 since 2006.
St. Louis (+2.5) @ Cleveland
Pick: Browns win but Rams beat the spread
Comment: Not one of the better matchups of week 10. St. Louis is 1-7 overall (1-7 ATS), 0-4 on the road (0-4 ATS), and they have a -13.9 average scoring margin. The Browns are 3-5 overall (just 1-5-2 ATS), 2-2 at home (0-2-2 ATS), and they have a -6.3 average scoring margin. Both teams are in last.
After shocking the Saints in week 9, the Rams lost at Arizona, 13-19, in overtime on a 99-yard punt return for a TD by Patrick Paterson. The Browns have lost 2 straight and 4 of their last 5. They are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
Cleveland’s already limited offense is even weaker with some of their biggest weapons hurt. RB’s Montario Hardesty (calf) and Peyton Hillis (vagina) are out this week. WR Mohammad Massaquoi is doubtful with a head injury.
Recapping the history of this series is a little bit complicated due to the always hard to deal with issue of whether or not to connect the expansion Browns to the old Browns. Technically, the Browns hold an 11-10 edge over the Rams in the all-time series. However, 18 of those games involved the Browns team that eventually moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens. Those 2 franchises (the old Browns and the Rams) played for the NFL championship 3 times in the 1950’s. In 1950—the year Cleveland joined the NFL from the All-American Football League—the Browns beat the Los Angeles Rams 30-28 to win the title. The next year (1951) the Rams beat the Browns, 24-17, in the championship game. In 1955 the Browns beat the Rams in the championship game again, this time by the score of 38-14.
Since being reborn as an expansion team in 1999, the Browns have gone 1-2 against the St. Louis Rams. Cleveland won the last meeting overall (2007), 27-20 at St. Louis. The Rams won the last time here (2003), 26-20.
Washington (+4) @ Miami
Pick: Dolphins cover
Comment: In recent years it seems like the Skins have often started the year off in decent shape record wise before taking a nose dive. They are in mid-nosedive at the moment. They’re 3-5 overall (3-5 ATS), 1-3 on the road (2-2 ATS), and they’ve lost their last 4 games (0-4 ATS). The Skins have a -3.9 average scoring differential.
Miami also has a -3.9 average scoring differential but they are just 1-7 overall (2-5-1 ATS). The Fins are also 0-3 at home (0-3 ATS). However, they have played hard every week and they’ve been playing better lately. They’ve won their last 2 ATS, and last week they got their first win of the season, beating KC 31-3 on the road. That victory snapped a 10-game losing skid going back to last season. Still, the Dolphins have lost 7 in a row at home (0-7 ATS!). They are just 1-12 in their last 13 home games (2-11 ATS)!
CB Vontae Davis—kept home last week for both hamstring and behavior problems—is probable for the Dolphins this week (missed last 2 games). You can go ahead and get good and fired up for the John Beck-Matt Moore QB battle in this one.
Washington is tied for last in the NFC East with the Eagles. The Dolphins are obviously in last in the AFC East.
The Redskins hold a 7-5 edge in the all-time series. The first meeting between these two was in the Super Bowl. Like the Bills and Cowboys, the Skins and Dolphins have squared off in the Super Bowl twice. In Super Bowl VII (1972) the Dolphins capped off a 17-0 season with a 14-7 victory over Washington. The Skins were favored in that game by the way. In Super Bowl XVII (1982), John Riggins and the Hogs ran over the Killer Bees, leading the Skins to a 27-17 victory. The last meeting between these two was in 2007, with the Skins winning 16-13 at home. The last meeting here was in 2003, with the Dolphins winning 24-23.
Houston (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Texans cover
Comment: The Texans have now won 3 straight (2-0-1 ATS) and are 6-3 overall (5-3-1 ATS) with a +8.8 average scoring differential. They are 2-2 on the road (2-2 ATS). Tampa has lost 2 straight and 3 of their last 4. They have lost 2 straight and 4 of 5 ATS. The Bucs are 4-4 overall (3-5 ATS), 3-2 at home (2-3 ATS), and they now have a -6.1 average scoring margin.
WR Andre Johnson has missed the last 5 games with a hamstring injury and he is listed as questionable for this week. For the Bucs, DT Gerald McCoy is out for the year with a bicep injury.
This is probably a bigger game for Tampa Bay than it is for Houston. Obviously with their history the Texans can’t afford to be cocky, but they are in 1st place and appear to be the only non-pretender in the AFC South. Tampa Bay is in 3rd place in the NFC East and they are towards the back of the pack in the playoff chase.
These teams have played twice before with each team winning once. The last meeting was in 2007, with the Texans winning 28-14 at home. The last time here was in 2003, with the Bucs winning 16-3.
Tennessee (+3.5) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers win Titans beat the spread
Comment: There is good news and bad news for Tennessee. The good news is that RB Chris Johnson appears to be coming out of his funk. The bad news is that the Titans have lost 3 of their last 4 (1-3 ATS). Their 17-24 loss at home to the Bengals last week was particularly costly, as they are now 2 games back of Houston in 2nd place in the AFC South at 4-4 (3-5 ATS). They are 1-2 on the road (1-2 ATS) and have a -1.6 average scoring differential.
Carolina is 2-6 overall (5-3 ATS), 2-3 at home (4-1 ATS), and they have a -2.5 average scoring margin. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5, including their last game, at home to the Vikings, 21-24. They were off last week and they have won their last 3 games after their bye. The Panthers are in last in the NFC South.
These franchises have met 3 times before. The Titans hold a 2-1 edge (2-0 since moving to Tennessee). The last meeting was in 2007, with the Titans winning 20-7 at home. The last meeting here was in 2003, with the Titans winning 37-17.
Arizona (+14) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: The gambling establishments seem particularly wary of this game. There was no line for most of the week; not even a brief opening line. QB Kevin Kolb’s status is the reason for the holdup but I don’t know why it’s such a big deal. How much does he really move the line? If John Skelton has to play will the line be 16.5? I don’t know but apparently Kolb is not going to play (foot; missed last week).
On the other hand, RB Beanie Wells is probable for Arizona (knee). TE Todd Heap has missed the last 4 games with a hamstring problem and is questionable this week. LB Joey Porter has missed the last 2 games with a knee injury and he is questionable.
It’s a short week for the Eagles, who lost at home to the Bears on Monday Night Football, 24-30. However, Arizona had to go into overtime to beat the Rams at home last week (19-13) so they may be a bit fatigued this week as well. That win for Arizona snapped a 6-game losing streak.
The Cards have won their last 2 ATS. They are somehow tied for 2nd in the NFC West with Seattle despite a 2-6 record overall (4-4 ATS). They are 0-4 on the road (2-2 ATS) and they have a -4.3 average scoring margin.
Amazingly, the Eagles are just 3-5 overall (3-5 ATS) and are just 1-3 at home (1-3 ATS). Despite being 2 games under .500 they have a +2.6 average scoring differential. Philly is tied with the Skins for last in the NFC East. The Eagles are in deep trouble in the race for the playoffs.
These two franchises have squared off many, many times. Probably a lot more often than most people realize. 115 times to be exact. Another possibly surprising fact: they have split the games 55-55-5. Even in relatively recent times the Eagles haven’t been as good against the Cards as I would have expected. They are 19-13 against the Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals.
These franchises faced off in back to back NFL championship games back in the first half of the 20th century. In 1947 the Eagles lost the NFL Championship Game, 21-28, to the Chicago Cardinals. The next year (1948) the Eagles beat the Chicago Cardinals in the NFL Championship Game, 7-0.
60 years later the teams would again meet in a rather large postseason game. That was 2008, the last year that these two teams faced each other. On Thanksgiving night, the Eagles won the last meeting here, 48-20. The Eagles had been stumbling and couldn’t afford a loss. They righted the ship that night and got on a roll that led into the playoffs. Arizona once again appeared to be not ready for primetime and they would back into the playoffs in the midst of a serious swoon.
The script would take a very surprising turn, however, and the two teams would find themselves squaring off 2 months later in the NFC Championship Game. This time the game was in Arizona and the Cardinals won 32-25. That was the last meeting between the two teams. The Eagles have won the last 3 at home against Arizona.
Sunday’s Late Games
Baltimore (-6.5) @ Seattle
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: I’ll be interested to see how Baltimore plays the week after their huge win at Pittsburgh on Sunday night. They’re playing a bad team but they’ve been known to drop their level of play at times when facing weaker competition. And Seattle isn’t an easy place for visitors to play.
Baltimore is now 6-2 overall (5-3 ATS) and tied for 1st place in the AFC North with the Bengals, a half game in front of Pittsburgh. They are 2-2 on the road (2-2 ATS) and have outscored opponents by 9.8 points per game this season. They’ve won 2 straight and 5 of their last 6.
Seattle is somehow tied for 2nd in the NFC West with the Cardinals, despite being just 2-6 overall (4-3-1 ATS). They are 1-2 at home (2-1 ATS) and have been outscored by 7.9 points per game this season. The Seahawks have now lost 3 in a row (1-1-1 ATS).
In reality these franchises have played many times over the years. Technically, however, they’ve only played 3 times, as the Ravens’ record book begins in 1996, the year the old Cleveland Browns became the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are 2-1 against Seattle. The last meeting was a 27-6 win by the Ravens in Seattle.
New York Giants (+3.5) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners cover
Comment: This could be a playoff preview. The Giants’ dramatic win at New England last Sunday was their 3rd straight victory and their 6th in the last 7 games. They are now 6-2 overall (4-3-1 ATS) and in 1st place in the NFC East. They are 3-1 on the road (3-1 ATS). Despite the hot streak, New York is just 1-2-1 ATS in their last 4. Also, despite being 4 games over .500, the G-Men have only outscored opponents by 1.8 points per game this season.
The amazing 49ers have won 6 straight (6-0 ATS) and are now 7-1 overall (7-0-1 ATS) and in 1st place by a mile in the NFC West. They are 3-1 at home (3-0-1 ATS) and have outscored opponents by 11 points a game this season.
RB Ahmad Bradshaw missed last game with a foot injury. He is listed as questionable but it doesn’t seem like he’s going to play. WR Hakeem Nicks missed last week with a hamstring injury and is questionable for this one.
These teams have split 34 previous meetings 17-17. There have been several memorable playoff battles between these two franchises. The last one was the wild, back and forth shootout in the 2002 NFC Wildcard round. The Niners came back from what seemed an insurmountable deficit and then dodged several bullets to hang on for a 39-38 win at home. That was SF’s 6th straight win in the series but the Giants have won all 3 meetings since.
This is a rematch of the 1990 NFC Championship Game, for many reasons one of the most important games of the Super Bowl era. The underdog Giants won that game, 15-13, at Candlestick Park, ending San Fran’s hopes of a 3-peat. Late in the game, the Giants knocked Joe Montana out with an injury, and essentially ended Montana’s career with the 49ers. Even though Montana was out, the 49ers were still in position to win if they could hang onto the ball and run out the clock. It’s fascinating to wonder how NFL history would be different if the Niners had won and gone on to play in Super Bowl XXV with Steve Young at QB. We will never know, as Lawrence Taylor took the ball away from Roger Craig and Matt Bahr booted the game winning field goal, setting up what turned out to be one of the most memorable Super Bowls of all-time.
The last meeting between these two overall was in 2008, with the Giants winning 29-17 at home. The last meeting here was in 2005, with the Giants winning 24-6.
Detroit (+2.5) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears cover
Comment: This is a big game for both teams. The Lions are 6-2 overall (5-2-1 ATS), an impressive 4-0 on the road (3-0-1 ATS), and they are in 2nd place in the NFC North, 1 game ahead of the 3rd place Bears. The Bears are now 5-3 overall (4-4 ATS), 3-1 at home (2-2 ATS), and they have a +3.2 average scoring margin. The Lions have outscored opponents by 11.5 points per game.
Detroit won at Denver in their last game (45-10) to snap a 2-game losing skid and a 2-game losing streak ATS. The Bears knocked off the Eagles in Philly last Monday, 30-24, for their 3rd straight victory (3-0 ATS). Obviously it will be an advantage for the Bears to be at home, but they are on a short week after a huge win, while the Lions are coming off of a bye.
The Lions’ coming out party was really their week 5 win over the Bears at home on Monday Night Football (24-13). They won convincingly that night, beating up Jay Cutler in the process. But since then the Lions have come down to earth and the Bears appear to have gotten much better.
This is obviously one of the older rivalries in the NFL. As you would expect, the Bears have a big edge in the series all-time: 93-65-5. The Bears swept the season series last year and Detroit’s win earlier this season against Chicago snapped a 6-game losing streak in the series.
The last time here was opening week of last season, with the Bears getting a controversial 19-14 win thanks to a potential game winning TD catch by Calvin Johnson being waved off. The Bears have won their last 3 games against Detroit at home.
RB Jahvid Best (concussion) has missed the last 2 for the Lions and is doubtful for this one.
Sunday Night’s Game
New England (+1) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: We know all about this one. It’s an important game for tangible and psychological reasons. Both teams are 5-3 overall (4-4 ATS) and tied for 1st in the AFC East with Buffalo. The Patriots have lost 2 straight overall and 3 straight ATS and they need a good performance in this game just to regain some of their confidence. The Jets are rolling, having won 3 in a row (3-0 ATS), but if they can’t win at home and at least split the season series with the slumping Patriots it will likely kill much of their momentum.
The Patriots defeated the Jets 30-21 in week 5. New England is 2-2 on the road (2-2 ATS) and they have a +4.8 average scoring margin. The Jets are an impressive 4-0 at home (3-1 ATS) and they have a +4.5 average scoring margin.
For the Patriots, RB Kevin Faulk made his 2011 debut in week 8 but then missed last week (knee). He is questionable for this one.
This rivalry has really grown in recent times. These two teams have met 105 times and have split the all-time series 52-52-1. Last year these teams met 3 times, with the Jets going 2-1. After losing 8 in a row at home against the Pats, the Jets have now won 2 straight. They won the last time here (2010) by a 28-14 score.
Monday Night’s Game
Minnesota (+13) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: This looks like a mismatch and it probably won’t be competitive. The Vikings are 2-6 overall (4-3-1 ATS), 1-3 on the road (2-2 ATS), and they have a -3.4 average scoring differential. The Packers, on the other hand, are 8-0 overall (6-2 ATS), 3-0 at home (3-0 ATS), and they have outscored opponents by 12.0 points per game this season.
Minnesota won their last game, 24-21, at Carolina. They’ve been playing better lately, as they’ve won 2 straight and 3 of their last 4 ATS. They are coming off of a bye this week and they have won 7 of their last 9 games out of their bye. The Packers have won 14 straight going back to last season and they are 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games. They’ve won 8 straight at home (7-1 ATS).
This is another of the NFL’s older rivalries. The Packers hold a 52-48-1 edge in the all-time series. The Packers swept the season series last year, winning the last time here (2010) 28-24. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 against the Vikes at home.
In week 6, the Packers won 33-27 over the Vikings on the road. Minnesota never stopped playing hard in that game but the final score is a bit misleading. After losing 3 straight to Minnesota, the Packers have now won 3 straight against them. They are in 1st place in the NFC North, while the Vikings are in last, 3 games back of 3rd place.
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