The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 17 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (7-8-1); Straight Up (10-6).
Season: Vs. Spread (111-123-5); Straight Up (155-84).

Week 16 Review: It’s just hard to beat the spread consistently. I thought I was headed for a great week, as I was 2-0 going into Sunday. I still had a winning record at the end of the early games but I was just 2-4 the rest of the way ATS.

Week 17 Preview: Week 17 just might be the most difficult week of the season to predict. You don’t know what to expect from the teams that have already clinched playoff births and may rest their starters. Some teams will be playing to get into the playoffs, while other teams will be focused solely on not getting anyone hurt. Teams may clinch playoff births or be eliminated minutes before kickoff. And for the teams with no shot at the playoffs you never know which teams will show up and which ones are already on vacation. It’s really one of the weaker parts of the NFL season if you ask me. I need to go 14-2 ATS to end the regular season at .500.

Sunday’s Early Games

Indianapolis (+7) @ Buffalo
Pick: Bills win but Colts beat the spread
Comment: I think it’s safe to assume that the Colts’ starters will play even less this week than they did last week. If they play a full quarter they may still be able to go up 7 to 10 points on Buffalo. But as we saw last week, Indy’s backups aren’t very good. They may still be able to hang with the injury riddled Bills however. You have to think that the Colts are going to have a hard time getting motivated and focused for this game. The Bills should have Ryan Fitzpatrick back playing QB this week and that will make their offense much more capable. I think the Colts will lose their final 2 game but it will be close.

New Orleans (+2.5) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers cover
Comment: The Saints have wrapped up the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs and will most likely give their starters significant rest in the finale. New Orleans is just 2-7 in their last 9 ATS. Carolina lost Steve Smith to a broken arm in the last game but the Panthers are coming off a couple of big wins and looking to end the season on a high note. They have won 3 of 4 and 4 straight ATS. In week 9, the Panthers were 12 point dogs on the road, and they ended up losing 30-20 to the Saints at the Superdome. Carolina will most likely not have DeAngelo Williams again this week but they are running well without him and the Saints can’t stop the run at all. So with Delhomme unable to derail things with turnovers, the Panthers should win their 3 straight to end the year.

Jacksonville (+1) @ Cleveland
Pick: Browns cover
Comment: The Jags need a ton of help to get into the playoffs so they may not be all that inspired. Jax is 2-9 ATS over the last 11. The Browns have suddenly won 3 straight and they have won 6 straight ATS. I like the Browns to end the year on a 4 game win streak and the Jags to end the year on a 4 game losing streak.

Chicago (-3) @ Detroit
Pick: Bears cover
Comment: The Bears had one of their best showings of the season last Monday night at home but there’s no guarantee they’ll show the same fire at Detroit in the season finale. The Bears are just 5-10 ATS and 1-6 on the road (1-6 ATS on the road). In week 4, the Bears hosted the Lions as 9.5 point favorites and won 48-24. The Lions are not saying whether they will go again with Drew Stanton or start Daunte Cullpepper. It doesn’t matter all that much, as both are horrible. The Lions have lost 11 of 12 and they are just 4-9-2 ATS this season. The Lions have been destroyed by injuries this year. The Bears really need to win this game in order to end the season on an upbeat note and avoid a 10 loss season.

New England (+9) @ Houston
Pick: Texans cover
Comment: Part of me thinks the Patriots will keep this game close and give a good effort as they have won 3 straight and Belichick may want to keep things rolling. But they will most likely give a lot of rest to the starters. Houston has won 3 straight but I don’t trust them. The Texans are 3-4 at home (2-4-1 ATS at home) this year after going 6-2 at home in each of the last 2 seasons. The Texans have a lot to play for this weekend; the Patriots can only be the #3 or #4 seed. The Texans don’t control their own destiny but they have a decent chance if they can win this game. The Patriots are just 2-5 on the road this season (2-4-1 ATS on the road). Reluctantly, I’ll take the Texans by double digits.

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Miami
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: The Steelers need a lot of help but they have no pressure because a lot of people buried them weeks ago. The Steelers are just 4-10-1 ATS this season, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7, and 2-5 straight up on the road (4-3 ATS on the road). Willie Parker is unlikely to play and it doesn’t appear that Troy Polamalu will be able to return for the final game. The Dolphins need a lot more help than Pittsburgh. The Fins may struggle to get up for this game but they seem to be competitive no matter what. Miami is 3-1 ATS in the last 4. Ricky Williams should be able to go in the season finale. This should be a tight game but I’ll take the Steelers to win on a late Big Ben TD pass.

New York Giants (+9) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings win but Giants beat the spread
Comment: A couple of years ago the Giants peaked late in the year, going on a historic run to the championship with road victories and upsets. Last year the G-Men spent most of the season looking like the dominant force in the NFC but they flamed out early in the playoffs. This year the Giants again spent the early part of the year looking like a powerhouse but things deteriorated quickly and have continued to do so. Last week was rock bottom. New York is 3-7 in their last 10 (2-8 ATS over the last 10). It’s hard to imagine the Giants being all that into this match up. They were still alive for the playoffs heading into last week’s final home game at Giants Stadium, and they were coming off of a dominating win over the Redskins. It ended in disaster. The G-Men will not have Brandon Jacobs this week. Minnesota has their own problems. The Vikes can still finish as the #2 seed but they’ll need help. Fortunately for the Vikings, they are at the Metrodome this week and they are 7-0 at home this year. Still, the Vikes are just 1-3 in their last 4 games (1-3 ATS in last 4) after starting out 10-1. I don’t think the Vikings will be able to blow this one out but I do think they’ll win.

San Francisco (-7) @ St. Louis
Pick: Niners cover
Comment: The problem with this game is that the Niners are 1-6 on the road this year (losing their last 6) and they haven’t won back to back games since starting the year 2-0. San Fran is 8-4-3 ATS this year (3-2-2 ATS on the road) but just 4-4-3 ATS in their last 11. Isaac Bruce is playing this week but the Niners won’t have kicker Joe Nedney. The Rams’ injury problems are in another galaxy. The Lams desperately need Steven Jackson to play in this game and it’s possible that he will. Donnie Avery will be back for this game. If those 2 play the Rams will it least have a couple of recognizable players on the offense. Unfortunately, Keith Null is still going to be their QB. They are 0-7 at home this year (3-4 ATS at home) and 1-14 overall. In week 4, the Rams were 9.5 point dogs at home and the Niners dominated them 35-0. They’ve lost their last 7 games but they are 6-4 ATS over their last 10. The Niners haven’t been able to win this sort of game yet but if they want to take the next step they need to get it done and win easily.

Atlanta (-1) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Falcons cover
Comment: I’m pretty anxious to get this game on and finally end the streak of not having consecutive winning seasons. Honestly, I don’t think I’d be much more excited for this game if the Falcons were still alive for the playoffs. I would be if the Falcons were healthy but they’re not and they wouldn’t have much of a chance to do any damage in the postseason. This is bigger than being lucky enough to have the right tiebreakers in order to get into the playoffs as a wild card team. This streak has to end before the Falcons can ever be taken seriously. I’m excited but I’m also terrified. It’s never easy to win in Tampa and obviously the Bucs have been playing much better of late. In Atlanta back in week 12, the Falcons were 12 point favorites but they lost Matt Ryan and Michael Turner during the game and could easily have lost. The Bucs played their hearts out but the Birds found a way to win it, 20-17. The Falcons are 10-5 ATS this year and they’ve won their last 3 ATS but they’re just 2-5 on the road straight up this season (4-3 ATS on the road).

Amazingly, if the Falcons win this game they will end the year on a season best 3 game win streak. The Bucs will also be trying to win a 3rd straight game, as they have posted back to back road upsets. The Bucs are 6-9 ATS on the year and just 1-6 at home (1-6 ATS at home). The Falcons have had horrible luck with injuries this year and it will last even into the final game of the season. Michael Turner still has not been ruled out of this game but it would be a bit of a surprise if he played, in my opinion, because he has already attempted to come back in 2 previous games, and in both instances he was re-injured early on. Turner’s status isn’t even the most crucial of week 17. Even without the Burner, the Falcons should be able to run against Tampa’s horrid rush defense using Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling. The guy whose absence could literally mean the difference between snapping the streak or choking again is Tony Gonzalez. The Falcons’ tight end came out of last week’s game with a calf injury and did not return. It would be a huge blow to not have Gonzalez for this one. Matt Bryant’s status could also be huge. As of right now it doesn’t look like the Falcons will have Bryant for this game. Instead of Bryant (who has been solid in place of Jason Elam) it may be Steve Hauschka attempting a big kick for the Falcons and that’s pretty scary. This one could easily go down to the wire but I just have to believe that this team will find a way to get it done and bury that awful thing hanging over the franchise’s head.

Sunday’s Late Games

Green Bay (+3.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals win but Packers beat the spread
Comment: While the Packers don’t have much to gain this week, the Cards could potentially earn the #2 seed in the NFC. If the Vikings win their game earlier in the day the Cards wont have a shot at the #2 seed and that could obviously have a major impact on how Arizona plays this game. Green Bay is 10-4-1 ATS this season and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games. The Packers have won 6 of 7 and they are 5-2 ATS on the road this year. But it seems likely that the Packers will play it safe in this game. Arizona may end up benching their starters as well, unless they still have a chance at the bye week. The Cards are 9-6 ATS on the year and they’ve won 3 of their last 4 straight up. The Cards are 4-3 ATS at home this year. One Card who is unlikely to play regardless of the playoff situation is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Neil Rackers will likely be able to kick for Arizona if they need him. I think Arizona will probably end up playing the starters for only part of the game but I think they will pull out a close win.

Kansas City (+13) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: Back in week 13, the Broncos were favored by 6 in KC and ended up winning 44-13. The Chiefs have lost 8 straight in Denver. The Broncos playoff chances won’t be any worse by game time than they are right now so they should be ready to play. Brandon Marshall gave everybody a scare when he injured his ankle in practice earlier this week but he will be ready to go on Sunday. Denver is 9-6 ATS this year but they have lost their last 3 games and are just 2-7 in their last 9 games. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10. KC is 6-9 ATS this year and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. The Chiefs are 2-5 this year on the road. They have lost 5 in a row. I think they’ll hang around in this one but I think the Broncos will pull out the win in the end.

Baltimore (-10.5) @ Oakland
Pick: Ravens win but Raiders beat the spread
Comment: All the Ravens have to do is worry about winning their game in order to get into the playoffs. The Ravens are just 2-5 on the road this year but the Raiders are only 2-5 at home. Ed Reed will try to play in the finale. I think Oakland will put up a fight and stay within single digits.

Washington (+4) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers cover
Comment: The Chargers will obviously play with backups most of the game but I still think they will beat the Skins at home. The Redskins are 2-9 in their last 11 games and only 1-6 on the road this year (though 4-2-1 ATS on the road). The Chargers are 5-2 at home (3-4 ATS at home) and have won 10 games in a row, going 6-2 ATS in their last 8. I think San Diego can still beat the Skins by a TD without most of their first teamers.

Tennessee (-4) @ Seattle
Pick: Titans cover
Comment: This is easily the most surprising line of the week for me. Yes, I realize the Titans got blown out last Friday and are eliminated from the playoffs but they still have a chance to finish .500 and you know they want to get Chris Johnson as many yards as they can. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are currently the worst team in the NFL. Their home field advantage is gone. The Titans are only 2-5 on the road (3-4 ATS on the road) and they have lost 4 of 5 ATS. But the Seahawks are coming off of losses by 27, 17, and 38 points respectively. The Seahawks are 4-3 at home (4-3 ATS). The Titans should hand them a 4th straight blowout loss.

Philadelphia (+3) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Eagles beat the spread
Comment: This game will determine the winner of the NFC East. It should be a classic. The Eagles have won 6 in a row, 3 of 4 ATS, and they are 5-2 on the road this season (5-2 ATS on the road) but Dallas is 5-2 at home (4-3 ATS at home) and the Cowboys won at Philly in week 9 as 3 point dogs, 20-16. I don’t know who is going to win this one but I’ll take the Cowboys in a tight one because they have the home field advantage.

Sunday Night’s Game

Cincinnati (+10) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets win but Bengals beat the spread
Comment: The Jets need only to win this game to get into the playoffs, while the Bengals stand to gain little by winning this game and may opt to rest players rather than attempt to get some momentum going into the playoffs. The Bengals are just 1-5 in their last 6 ATS and they are 4-3 on the road this year (4-3 ATS on the road). The Jets are only 3-4 at home (3-4 ATS at home) but they’ve won 4 of their last 5 straight up (4-1 ATS in their last 5). Unfortunately, I don’t think there’s much of a chance of the Jets losing this thing, but I do think the Bengals will stay within single digits.