Friday, December 18, 2009

The College Football Blog: 2009 Bowl Season Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (0-0-1); Moneyline Upsets (0-0)
Season: Vs. Spread (58-96-5); Moneyline Upsets (14-29)

Week 15 Review: How fitting is it that I pushed last week?

Bowl Season Preview: The bowl matchups are unsatisfying, lacking in meaning, and generally boring, but it’s still hard to predict the outcome, especially against the spread. I think I said something quite similar last year. There’s not much pressure on me because regardless of what happens in the bowl season there’s no way I can do enough to make my season respectable. Like last year I’m going to pick against the spread and pick the winners in the bowl games.

December 19th

New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming (+10.5) vs. Fresno State
Pick: Fresno State covers
Comment: Wow. The bowl season really starts off with a bang. Both of these teams have been good ATS this season. On paper it seems like the Bulldogs should win big but the turnover numbers suggest that Wyoming will stay in the game. The Cowboys are +7 in turnover margin this year, while the Bulldogs are -9. Still, Wyoming has a -10.3 averaging scoring margin this season. Wyoming’s offense is absolutely pitiful. Ryan Matthews should be ready to go for Fresno State and Wyoming’s defense isn’t good enough to contain him. Fresno State should run all over Wyoming and win going away.

St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (+3) vs. Rutgers
Pick: Rutgers wins but Central Florida beats the spread
Comment: I’m hedging a bit here but honestly it could come down to a missed extra point or something like that. CF should have a decent advantage playing in Florida but there are plenty of New Yorkers who have moved to Florida and there will surely be many more willing to make this trip in the middle of December. While Rutgers is just 6-6 ATS this year, CF is 9-2. I’m thinking this will be a defensive battle and I give Rutgers a slight edge because they are the more talented team.

December 20th

New Orleans Bowl: Middle Tennessee State (+3.5) vs. Southern Mississippi
Pick: Southern Mississippi wins but Middle Tennessee State beats the spread
Comment: The surprising Blue Raiders are 9-3 ATS this year and they have beaten the spread in their last 6 games. The Eagles are just 6-5 ATS this year but they have beaten the spread in 5 of their last 6 games. Southern Miss will be playing in the New Orleans Bowl for the 4th time in 6 years and they are 3-0 to this point. MTS should be fired up to be playing in any bowl, however, and I think they’ll make it really close.

December 22nd

Las Vegas Bowl: BYU (+2.5) vs. Oregon State
Pick: Oregon State covers
Comment: Okay, at what point does the Las Vegas Bowl need to think about going in another direction? For the 5th consecutive season, BYU will be playing a Pac-10 team in the Las Vegas Bowl. Oregon State is the better team and I think they’ll win convincingly.

December 23rd

Poinsettia Bowl: Utah (+3.5) vs. California
Pick: Cal wins but Utah beats the spread
Comment: This is a tough one to call. Neither team is above .500 ATS this season. Cal will not have RB Jahvid Best but the game is in California. I think this one will go down to the wire but I’ll give Cal a slight edge because they are the more talented team.

December 24th

Hawaii Bowl: SMU (+15) vs. Nevada
Pick: Nevada wins but SMU beats the spread
Comment: June Jones is headed back to the island. His Mustangs should put up a hell of a fight against Nevada but I think the Wolfpack will win in the end.

December 26th

Little Caesars Bowl: Ohio (-2.5) vs. Marshall
Pick: Ohio covers
Comment: Which is worse: the name of the bowl or the matchup? Marshall is simply not a very good team and they will not have a head coach for this game. The Herd has a -3.1 average scoring margin this year and has lost 3 straight ATS. Ohio has won 4 straight ATS and is 9-4 ATS this season. I think the Bobcats will win fairly easily.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina (+2.5) vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: North Carolina pulls off the upset
Comment: The Heels are playing close to home again, this time against a Pittsburgh team that appeared to be headed for a BCS game before collapsing and choking against Cincinnati in the season finale. With the location and the motivation in UNC’s favor, I think the Heels win this one.

Emerald Bowl: Boston College (+9.5) vs. USC
Pick: USC wins but Boston College beats the spread
Comment: USC has an advantage playing relatively close to home, especially compared to the Eagles. However, you have to wonder how psyched the Trojans will be to play this game. USC is just 3-9 ATS this season. I think the Trojans will win but not by double digits.

December 27th

Music City Bowl: Kentucky (+7.5) vs. Clemson
Pick: Kentucky pulls off the upset
Comment: The Wildcats will be playing in this game for the 3rd time in 4 years. Back in 2006, Kentucky was an 11.5 point underdog against Clemson in this game and won it 28-20. Clemson can’t be all that excited about winding up in Nashville. I think Kentucky will sneak up and beat Clemson.

December 28th

Independence Bowl: Texas A&M (+7) vs. Georgia
Pick: Georgia wins but A&M beats the spread
Comment: Both teams should feel pretty good about playing in this game. A&M will most likely have success throwing the ball against the UGA defense but it will be interesting to see how things go after 3 defensive coaches were let go by the Dawgs a few weeks ago. The Dawgs are just 4-8 ATS this season but they should be able to win this one.

December 29th

EagleBank Bowl: UCLA (-4.5) vs. Temple
Pick: Temple pulls off the upset
Comment: Are we even sure who’s playing in this game yet? UCLA has a +0.1 average scoring margin this year. The Owls are 8-3 ATS and will have Bernard Pierce carrying the ball. I like Temple to win its first bowl game since 1979.

Champs Sports Bowl: Wisconsin (+3) vs. Miami
Pick: Miami covers
Comment: This is a tough one. It should be a very close game but I’ll give Miami the edge based on location.

December 30th

Humanitarian Bowl: Bowling Green (-2) vs. Idaho
Pick: Idaho pulls off the upset.
Comment: A pair of very surprising teams. One difference between these two teams is that while BG has continued to play better than expected throughout the season, Idaho has really struggled down the stretch. The Vandals have lost 5 straight ATS and their average scoring margin is -3.7. Bowling Green has covered in 4 straight and I would probably be picking BG if this game wasn’t in the state of Idaho. But it is in Idaho and so I’m going to call for the Vandals to win a very close ball game.

Holiday Bowl: Nebraska (+2) vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona covers
Comment: This is actually an interesting matchup. Arizona’s DC is leaving but they won’t have to be all that prepared to stop Nebraska’s offense. The Wildcats are only 6-6 ATS this season but I think they are the better all around team. I like Arizona to win a close ball game.

December 31st

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force (+4) vs. Houston
Pick: Houston covers
Comment: This another game that seems to have no problem picking the same teams every year. Air Force will be playing in this game for the 3rd straight year, having lost the previous 2 games. This is an exact rematch of last year’s Armed Forces Bowl (Houston won 34-28) and the two teams played in Dallas in September of last season as well (AF won 31-28). Clearly this is a battle between Houston’s offense and AF’s defense. I think the Cougars will win pretty easily.

Sun Bowl: Stanford (+8) vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma wins but Stanford beats the spread
Comment: On paper this is a matchup of Oklahoma’s defense vs. Stanford’s rushing attack. But this one is really more about things like motivation and attitude. Stanford will be without starting QB Andrew Luck and Toby Gerhart isn’t even considering returning for his senior season. I have to wonder how Gerhart is going to play, having already moved on at least in his own mind, and with nothing really to gain and a whole lot to lose. Oklahoma was supposed to be playing in a BCS bowl and the Sooners have had trouble showing up for any bowl game lately. I’m going to pick Oklahoma to stop their bowl game losing streak at 3 but I think Stanford will stay within a TD.

Texas Bowl: Navy (+6.5) vs. Missouri
Pick: Missouri covers
Comment: Navy is just 6-7 ATS this season and has lost 3 in a row ATS. Missouri is only 5-7 ATS but the Tigers are the more talented squad and they should be fired up to be playing in any bowl this year. It will come down to Navy’s rushing attack against Mizzu’s rush defense. My guess is that Missouri will be able to slow the ground game down and Navy will not be able to adjust.

Insight Bowl: Iowa State (+2.5) vs. Minnesota
Pick: Iowa State pulls off the upset
Comment: Okay, there is nothing remotely interesting about this matchup. Iowa State has a -1.5 average scoring margin; Minnesota’s average scoring margin is -3. The Gophers have won 3 of their last 4 ATS but they are without their play making receiver Decker in this one. Minnesota lost this game last year to Kansas by 21 points. The Gophers suffered a historic collapse in a loss to Texas Tech in this game in 2006. I think the Cyclones will be fired up for this game and will come up with the win.

Chick-fil-a Bowl: Tennessee (+4.5) vs. Virginia Tech
Pick: Virginia Tech wins but Tennessee beats the spread
Comment: Neither team has had all that much luck in the Georgia Dome. The Vols will be missing a number of players due to injuries and suspensions. Tennessee could really use a win to take the attention away from the off the field issues but I don’t think it’s going to happen.

January 1st

Outback Bowl: Northwestern (+7) vs. Auburn
Pick: Auburn wins but Northwestern beats the spread
Comment: The Wildcats should be able to keep it close but Auburn is the more talented team and will end up winning.

Gator Bowl: Florida State (+2.5) vs. West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia covers
Comment: This is a joke. I hope West Virginia blows FSU out and sends Bobby Bowden and all of the Seminoles fans home devastated.


Capital One Bowl: LSU (+2.5) vs. Penn State
Pick: Penn State covers
Comment: The Tigers are just 5-7 ATS this season and 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. LSU has some coaching issues and they are really banged up at the RB position. Penn State has been much better on both sides of the ball this season and I can’t bet against them in this game.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State (+3.5) vs. Oregon
Pick: Oregon covers
Comment: Oregon was the hottest team in the country before the loss to Stanford. The Ducks are just 1-3 in their last 4 ATS. Ohio State is 9-3 ATS this season and 4-1 in their last 5 ATS but the Buckeyes will be missing several players for this one. Plus, they will be coming off of a long layoff and there is a mental thing the Buckeyes have to overcome as well. The Ducks are the better team anyway and they should win.

Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati (+11) vs. Florida
Pick: Florida wins but Cincinnati beats the spread.
Comment: No team will be affected by coaching change as much as Cincinnati. However, the team might just be inspired enough to make this a great game. Remember, the Gators ace DC has been hired away and Florida is coming off the huge letdown in the SEC Championship Game. I don’t think the Gators will repeat Bama’s mistakes of last year. It should be a game but I like the Gators to win in the end.

January 2nd

International Bowl: Northern Illinois (+6.5) vs. South Florida
Pick: South Florida wins but Northern Illinois beats the spread.
Comment: Nice bowl game. It doesn’t get much better than a middling MAC team going up against a disappointing Big East team in Canada. NIU has lost 3 straight ATS; USF is 2-5 in its last 7 ATS. The Bulls are dealing with some distractions but they should still be able to pull out the win.

Papa Johns Bowl: Connecticut (+4.5) vs. South Carolina
Pick: Connecticut pulls off the upset
Comment: The Huskies are 10-2 ATS this season and they should be the more inspired team in this ball game.

Cotton Bowl: Mississippi (-3) vs. Oklahoma State
Pick: Mississippi covers
Comment: A couple of teams who had bigger dreams than playing in the Cotton Bowl. It should be a decent game. Okie State is just 5-5-1 ATS this season; Mississippi is 6-6 ATS and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. I’ll take Mississippi to win it by 4.

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (-7.5) vs. East Carolina
Pick: Arkansas wins but East Carolina beats the spread
Comment: Arkansas has won 4 straight ATS. ECU is 6-6 ATS on the season but the Pirates have won 5 of 7 ATS. ECU is banged up and I think the Razorbacks will have a big day throwing the ball.

Alamo Bowl: Michigan State (+8) vs. Texas Tech
Pick: Texas Tech covers
Comment: Michigan State is 4-6-1 ATS this season, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games, and they only have like 6 or 7 players who aren’t out with injuries, suspended, or in jail. Texas Tech is better on both sides of the ball anyway.

January 4th

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State (+7) vs. TCU
Pick: TCU wins but Boise State beats the spread.
Comment: This matchup is a subversive fuck you to the non-BCS conferences and everyone who hates the bowl system. Two great teams who will not get a chance to prove themselves against the big boys. Last year TCU beat the Broncos by a point in the Poinsettia Bowl. I think it will be close again this year in Arizona but I like the Frogs to win once again.

January 5th

Orange Bowl: Iowa (+4) vs. Georgia Tech
Pick: Iowa pulls off the upset
Comment: While rust may have a negative effect on the Hawkeyes, I don’t think any team is hurt more by a long layoff than Georgia Tech.

January 6th

GMAC Bowl: Troy (+3.5) vs. Central Michigan
Pick: Central Michigan wins but Troy beats the spread.
Comment: Central Michigan is losing its coach to Cincinnati again and the location should favor Troy. However, CM is the better team and they should win a competitive ball game. By the way, why is this game being played a day after the Orange Bowl and a day before the National Championship Game?

January 7th

BCS Championship: Texas (+5) vs. Alabama
Pick: Alabama covers.
Comment: This should be a great game. Both teams are excellent but in my opinion Alabama has already blown out a team that was better than Texas. I think the Tide will win it convincingly.

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