The College Football Blog: 2009 Week 14 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (9-15-1); Moneyline Upsets (2-2)
Season: Vs. Spread (53-88-4); Moneyline Upsets (11-28)

Week 13 Review: It’s not as bad as it could have been…but definitely not as good as I’d hoped. I still can’t believe I didn’t even go .500 last week.

Week 14 Preview: It’s too late for me to salvage much of anything out of this CFB regular season. But I am not scared of that round number I could potentially hit if I have a disastrous week. And it’s not out of my reach by any stretch.

Thursday

Game 1: Arkansas State (-6) @ Western Kentucky
Pick: Arkansas State covers
Comment: Unless you’re a serious gambler, a college football junkie, or a fan of one of the Sun Belt teams, you probably don’t pay much attention to the SBC. But trust me on this: every season there are at least 2 SBC teams picked to be near the top of the conference who end up being massive disappointments. This season Arkansas State is definitely one of those teams. Ark St. was thought to be a solid bet for 2nd place in the conference and perhaps even a surprise champion, certainly they would finish no worse than 3rd in the Sun Belt this year. The Red Wolves had been highly competitive against teams from stronger conferences over the previous 2 years, they had gone 4-3 inside the SBC last year ( with a 1-point loss, a 5-point loss, and a loss to league power Troy, all on the road), and they had 51 returning lettermen and 15 returning starters (including all their offensive leaders and their Groza Award finalist kicker). The Wolves opened the season with a 61-0 win over Mississippi Valley State but there have been few bright spots since. Ark State lost the next 4 games and was just 1-8 against FBS competition before last week’s less than impressive 4 point win over North Texas at home. It didn’t start out as that bad of a stretch. They lost by 29 at Nebraska but that’s not humiliating. Then they played a good game against Troy, losing by 3 after losing to the Trojans by 27 point and 26 point spreads in the previous 2 seasons. The following week the Red Wolves gave Iowa all it could handle in Iowa City, losing by just 3 points. A 6 point loss at ULM followed but they responded with a convincing victory over FIU for their first win over an FBS opponent on the season. Then they went on the road to Louisville and came very close to yet another win over a team from one of the bigger conferences but they fell short again, 21-13. They lost by 3 to ULL a week later and all of that heartache seemed to take some fight out of the Wolves as they lost by 17 to FAU and by 24 to MTS in the next two weeks before finally beating NT last weekend.

So now you know more about Arkansas State’s season than you did before. Anyhow, they will probably not have their #1 QB in this game but he’s been out for awhile now and it hasn’t made them much worse. Western Kentucky, as you may or may not know, has had a tougher than perhaps expected time making the transition to the FBS. The Hilltoppers went 0-10 against FBS teams last year and they are 0-10 against the FBS again this season. In fact, they’re also 0-1 against the FCS this season, having lost 28-7 at home to Central Arkansas back in September. They’ve lost 24 straight against FBS teams.

Certainly you would expect Ark State to be able to win this game, regardless of the location, regardless of anything really. But the spread may be a different story. Arkansas State has lost 5 straight ATS and is just 2-8 on the season ATS. Conversely, Western Kentucky has covered in 3 straight games. And the Wolves have gone 0-6 on the road so far this season, just 1-5 ATS in road games. Actually Ark St.’s road problems may explain why this season went so poorly, as the schedule did not help them with 7 true road games. The Wolves are now 2-17 on the road over the last 3 years. However, I just can’t bet on WK if the spread is only 6. I know it’s not smart to always go with a great team or against a terrible team regardless of the spread, but Western Kentucky is probably the worst team in the FBS and they aren’t even a touchdown underdog this week.

Game 2: Oregon State (+10) @ Oregon
Pick: Oregon State beats the spread
Comment: I’m pretty excited for this one. Of course, I was excited for last year’s game and while it ended up being full of big plays it was not all that competitive in the end. And that was in Corvallis; this time it’s in Eugene. This is actually an enormous spread for the “Civil War”, at least compared to recent years. The spread was 3 or less in 4 of the previous 5 years. Consider this: the only year out of the last 5 when the spread was greater than 3 was in 2005 when a 9-1 Oregon team—ranked 10th in the country at the time, having won 6 straight, with their only loss on the season to #1 USC—hosted a 5-5 Beavers squad that had lost 3 of its last 4. The Ducks were favored by 13 that year. It seems like there should be more than a 3 point difference between the spread in that matchup and the one coming up on Thursday, with the winner heading to the Rose Bowl, and the teams combining for a 12-2 record since the start of October. The Ducks’ 65-38 romp on the road in last year’s game must be having an effect on the minds of bettors and predictors. Hopefully this season’s game will be closer in the end than last year’s.

The good news is that after a week of rest for both teams, everybody is healthy enough to play, meaning both LaMichael James of Oregon and Jacquizz Rodgers of Oregon State will be on the field. It should be much tougher for Oregon to run the ball against the Beavers this year but the Ducks are certainly one of the more explosive teams in the country. Oregon is very tough at home. The Ducks are 6-0 at home this year and 5-1 ATS, but the Beavers have gone 4-1 on the road this year (4-1 ATS on the road). Before the visiting teams won the last two “Civil War” games, the home team had won 10 in a row. I think Oregon will get it done at home this year but it’s a pretty big spread for a rivalry game. Overall, Oregon State has beaten the spread in 6 of 7, while Oregon is 7-2 in its last 9 ATS. Hopefully it will be a classic. I think it’ll be decided by 5 points or less.

Friday

Game 3: Ohio (+12.5) vs. Central Michigan
Pick: Central Michigan covers
Comment: Did you realize that the MAC Championship Game has been in existence since 1997? The game will once again be played in Detroit at Ford Field this season, and aside from high school football playoff games, the MAC title game will be the center of the football universe on Friday night. This is a good thing because there are two pretty good football teams going at it in this one. Last year’s game was a total downer, as Buffalo’s astounding luck carried over into the MAC Title Game. In one of the all-time flukiest games, Ball State—easily the best team in the MAC last year—was bowled over by the Buffalo tsunami of good fortune. The luck-out made the Bulls 8-5 on the year and champions of the league, while the #12 Cardinals found themselves 12-1 without a crown. Hopefully this year’s game will be better and whoever wins will be more deserving than last year’s Buffalo team.

Some MAC Championship Game History

The MAC Championship Game has an interesting history, mostly because the team that has dominated the league in the Championship Game era has not been a part of the MAC since 2004. Moving a program into a higher level of competition can be a very tough process, whether it’s moving up a conference or even a whole division. Western Kentucky is finding out how hard this process can be, as going from the highest level of FCS to the lowest level of the FBS is proving to be a tough step. It wasn’t quite so hard for Marshall when it jumped from I-AA into the MAC in 1997, the first year of the 2-division/MAC Title Game era. Marshall would dominate the league, playing in the first 6 MAC Title Games as East Division champs, winning the first 4 and 5 of the first 6. The only other MAC team to win a conference title during the first 6 years of the championship game era was Toledo in 2001. In their final season in the MAC, Marshall’s streak of 6 straight East Division Titles was snapped by Miami of Ohio, who went on to win the conference.

In 2004 Marshall left the MAC for Conference USA and has never been heard from since (again, moving up a level can be more challenging than expected). Toledo won its 2nd MAC Championship Game that year and then Akron won in 2005. Since then a new power has risen in the MAC: Central Michigan. Brian Kelly rebuilt the program and Butch Jones has kept things going. Led by QB phenom Dan LeFevour, the Chippewas won back to back MAC Championships in 2006 and 2007, becoming the first team to repeat as champs since Marshall won 4 straight from 97-01. Last season CM was expected to win a 3rd straight title and they almost certainly would have were it not for Ball State, who put together a dominate regular season to take the East Division, though they wouldn’t win the conference. As mentioned earlier, the conference title fell into Buffalo’s lap last year.

In the 12 year history of the MAC Title Game, Marshall holds the record for most division titles (and therefore Title Game appearances) with 6 and most conference titles with 5. Toledo has 5 division titles. Central Michigan is now tied with Miami of Ohio for 3rd with 3 division titles. CM and Toledo each have 2 MAC Championships during the title game era, and a 3rd win for the Chippewas would give them more than any current league member. Ohio will be playing in its 2nd MAC Title Game, as Ohio won the West Division this year for the 2nd time in Frank Solich’s 5 years in Athens. In fact, this year’s Championship Game will be a rematch of the 2006 Title Game, when CM won its first conference title with a 31-10 win over the Bobcats. That game started a recent trend of wider margins in the MAC Championship. 7 of the first 9 MAC Title Games were decided by 8 points or less; all of the last 3 Title Games have been decided by 18 points or more.

MAC Championship Game Preview

There’s no question that Central Michigan was the top team in the MAC during the regular season. The Chips played 3 road games against teams from BCS conferences and never got embarrassed. They lost by 13 at Arizona in their opener but they came back the next week to shock Michigan State in East Lansing. In late October CM played BC on the road and stayed in the game for a while before falling out of it and losing 31-10. Within the conference CM has been about as dominant as BSU was last season, going 8-0, winning each game by at least 7 points, and winning 7 of 8 by 11 points or more. On the other side, Ohio is a worthy opponent, though they have not been as good as CM, and the Bobcats would probably not have beaten Temple last week to get into the Title Game if not for the injury to Temple RB Bernard Pierce. Ohio will be the more banged up team in this matchup. The Bobcats have been battling injuries all season and QB Theo Scott hurt his ankle against the Owls last week. Central Michigan of course has the do-it-all senior QB LeFevour, as well as 16 other seniors who have gone to 2 MAC Title Games before, winning each time by at least 21 points. Ohio has beaten the spread in 8 of its last 10 games, while CM is 6-1 ATS in its last 7. It would be tough for me to see how CM won’t win in their home state, on a field they are very familiar with, over an opponent they are clearly better than. But hey, look what happened last year. You never know. Still, I like the Chips to win by at least 2 TD’s.

Saturday

Game 4: Houston (-1) @ East Carolina
Pick: Houston covers
Comment: This line will probably be closer to a field goal favorite for Houston by this weekend.

Some Conference USA Championship Game History

The Conference USA Championship Game has only been played since 2004, and the one thing that makes it unique among the current FBS conference championship games is also one of its least appealing qualities: the game is not played at a neutral site. It’s not totally the fault of the conference. The game doesn’t draw all that much interest nationally and the schools are fairly spread apart. If it were up to me I would play the game at the Superdome in New Orleans every year but that’s just me. Yes, it is Tulane’s home stadium but that’s really not a factor. When Tulane starts threatening to make a C-USA Title Game you can worry about moving it then. While you can understand why this game is not played at a neutral site, it’s still a problem. Home field advantage is just too important in college football. On the other hand, it does reward one team for having a better regular season conference record. It should also decrease the chances that a lesser team from one division will upset a team that was the best in the conference all season, although you could make a case that just that sort of thing happened last year. One other issue is the size of the stadium. The game has been played in Orlando twice; first in the 50,000 plus seat Citrus Bowl and then in the 45,000 seat Bright House Networks Stadium. Nearly 52,000 showed up in 2005 and nearly 45,000 were in attendance in 2007. However, in 2006 the game was played at Robertson Stadium in Houston, which seats 32,000 or so. The game again drew a near capacity crowd, but this time it was just under 32,000. Last season the game was played at Tulsa’s 30,000 seat stadium, but only 22,000 made it out. It would be nice to have the ability to seat 45,000 every year, but perhaps the game would never draw that many if it wasn’t played at the home field of one of the competing teams.

Anyway, during the first 5 years of the Title Game era, each division has been controlled by a pair of teams. The West has been dominated by Tulsa and Houston; the East has mostly been controlled by Central Florida and ECU. Tulsa won the West in 05, 06, and 08; Houston won the West in 2007 and won it again this year. Central Florida took the East Division in 2005 and 2007. East Carolina has won the East the past 2 seasons. Southern Miss won the East Division title in 2006, beating the Pirates in OT that year to finish ahead of ECU atop the standings. This will be the 5th C-USA Title Game, and only 5 different teams have appeared. Southern Miss lost in its only appearance. Central Florida went 1-1 in 2 appearances. Tulsa has the most appearances in the Title Game with 3 but they went just 1-2 in Conference Championship games. This will be the 2nd title game for both East Carolina and Houston and they both won the Championship in their previous appearance. ECU of course is the defending C-USA champ. Whoever wins this game will be the only team to have won 2 C-USA Titles in the Conference Championship Game era.

Somewhat surprisingly, the team with the home field advantage in the Title Game has won just twice in 4 years. Tulsa was favored to beat Central Florida on the road in Orlando in 2005 and they did, winning by 17. Houston was favored to beat Southern Miss at home in 2006 and they did, winning by 14. Central Florida was favored to beat Tulsa at home in 2007 and they did, winning by 19. Then last year Houston was favored by 11 over ECU at home and they dominated the game but the Pirates were 2nd only to Buffalo in luck last year and they used 6 turnovers to pull off a 27-24 upset. So the most competitive C-USA Title Game to date was also its least satisfying.

Conference USA Championship Game Preview

While Houston seems clearly the better team, their best work this season has actually come outside of C-USA. ECU was a bit like that last year, beating VT and WV, but losing as a favorite at home to Houston, going to OT to beat underdogs Central Florida and Marshall, and losing big to Southern Miss. This season Houston won at Oklahoma State, squeezed past Texas Tech, and beat Mississippi State in Starkville; but they lost by 17 to a UTEP team that had a horrific season, they got dominated by a mediocre CF team (the 37-32 final score was not indicative of what took place that day), and they needed a slew of miraculous events in order to steal a game from a very disappointing Tulsa team by 1 point.

Once again it would seem that there is a huge advantage for the team that gets to play at home, in this case it’s ECU. The Cougars are just 6-6 on the road under Kevin Sumlin, as opposed to 11-0 at home. ECU is 20-8 at home under Skip Holtz, as opposed to 15-16 on the road. But Houston won at ECU just last year, whipping the Pirates when ECU was ranked 23rd in the country. This year Houston is 8-3 ATS, while ECU is just 5-6 ATS, perhaps a result of being a bit overrated due to their surprising wins over WV and VT early in 2008. The bottom line for me is that I don’t think the home field advantage is enough in this case to give ECU the edge. Houston outscored opponents by nearly 17 points a game this year; the Pirates were only about 6 points better per game. And finally, both of these teams ride the play of their quarterbacks. And who do you feel better about: Patrick Pinkney or Case Keenum? Houston definitely should win this thing.

Game 5: Cincinnati (-2) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Cincinnati covers
Comment: When this line first came out Pitt was a slight favorite. It’s amazing that Cincinnati could go all this way undefeated and if they lose this weekend they wouldn’t be Big East Champs and they wouldn’t go to a BCS bowl. This will almost certainly be Cinci’s toughest test of the season, though an early season trip to Corvallis was no day at the beach. After giving up 20 points or less in each of their first 8 games, the Bearcats have allowed 45, 21, and 36 points in their last 3 games respectively. And all 3 of those games came at home. However, as the defense has yielded points, the offense has put more on the board. The Bearcats have put up 28 points or more in 10 of 11 games this season. Pitt has been pretty strong defensively, allowing more than 22 points in just 2 of 11 games. But Pitt’s schedule has not been as tough as Cinci’s. Against a tougher schedule, the Bearcats have outscored their opponents by 21 points per game, while Pitt has outscored opponents by 14.5 points per game. Cinci has lost 3 straight ATS but they were pretty much in control throughout against Illinois, giving up some meaningless points late. Pitt is 6-0 at home but Cinci hasn’t been bothered by playing on the road, going 5-0, 4-1 ATS.

The bottom line for me: I trust Cinci more, I think they’re better, and I think they’ve got more heart. They have the better QB (QB’s) and the better coach. Cincinnati beat Pitt for the first time in 8 tries last year and this year I think they’ll win in Pittsburgh for the first time. It’ll be close but they should win to finish undefeated.

Game 6: San Jose State (+18.5) @ Louisiana Tech
Pick: Louisiana Tech covers
Comment: This line is flying towards a 20 point spread. While the records are similar, these teams are actually far apart. LT is actually competitive; SJS is wretched. The Bulldogs have lost 5 straight and they’re just 3-8 on the year, but they’ve actually outscored their opponents. SJS may have won last week and they may only be 1 game worse in the W-L record at 2-9 but they’ve been outscored by an average of 19.5 points per game. LT is 7-4 ATS; SJS is 2-9 ATS. San Jose State is 0-5 on the road (0-5 ATS); LT is 3-1 at home (4-0 ATS). The Spartans have been outscored by over 30 points a game on the road; the Bulldogs have outscored opponents by 21 points a game at home. Louisiana Tech has been outscored by double digits 4 times and by 20 points or more twice; SJS has been outscored by double digits in 7 games and by 20 points or more 5 times. LT lost by 2 at Utah State; by 1 at Idaho; by 10 to Boise State; by 8 at LSU; and by 2 at Fresno State. It could have been a different season for them. They should win by 24 points or more.

Game 7: New Mexico State (+47.5) @ Boise State
Pick: New Mexico State beats the spread
Comment: It would be almost impossible for the Broncos to lose this game, but going forward, the news that WR Austin Pettis and LB Derrell Acrey have injuries that could keep them out of their bowl game is pretty rough. As for this game, Boise State would probably be fine without their best 10 players. New Mexico State has already lost 4 times by at least 31 points this year. They lost by 43 at home to Nevada and by 31 at home to Fresno State. They lost by 38 at LT. How much will they lose by on the blue turf, with Boise State trying to impress one last time? Not sure, but the facts are that NMS has not yet lost by more than 47.5 points, and Boise State has only beaten an opponent by over 47.5 points once this year, beating Miami of Ohio 48-0 in week 2 at home. They beat Hawaii by 45. They haven’t beaten anyone else by more than 38. If the spread was 41 I’d probably take the Broncos but if a 52-7 score isn’t enough for the favorite to cover, I think it’s smart to go with the underdog.

Game 8: Arizona (+7) @ USC
Pick: USC covers
Comment: This line is gaining half points by the hour. Maybe the gut reaction has finally shifted to people betting against USC. USC hasn’t been great anywhere this year but they’ve been better at home, where they’re 4-1. Arizona is just 2-3 on the road, 1-4 ATS. USC is only 3-8 ATS overall this year but they did cover at home against UCLA last week. Arizona is 5-6 ATS overall this year. USC has won 7 in a row over Zona but the Cats have beaten the spread in the last 4 meetings. USC has been banged up all year but they aren’t falling apart. Arizona is down a running back this week. After beating their rivals last week and with no shot at the Pac-10 title you might wonder how jacked these teams will be to play. You can count on Arizona being jacked because every team in the country gets jacked to play USC, especially when they think they might have a chance (and teams do think that now), and this is especially true with Pac-10 teams who have taken abuse from the dominant Trojans over the last decade. For Arizona, if the Cats lose this game to finish the season 7-5 for the second year in a row, it would have to be considered a disappointment. If they can beat USC to finish with their best record of the millennium, a 6-3 record in the conference, and back to back wins over ASU, the season will feel like a success. The Trojans may have a harder time finding motivation but they need to keep working towards getting their swagger back. They took a big step in the right direction last week against UCLA, making Rick Neuheisel look like a buffoon and putting the Bruins in their place. In addition, they can still finish 2nd in the Pac-10 and if they win this game it will give them a shot at an 8th straight 10 win season if they can win their bowl game. I like USC by 11.

Game 9: Florida (-6) vs. Alabama
Pick: Alabama beats the spread
Comment: Well, the Carols Dunlap situation can not be ignored. What an absolute bum! How could you be that selfish/stupid/irresponsible to get that out-of-control hammered in public the week before the SEC Championship Game? Will Florida end up losing this game because their best pass rusher is suspended? I don’t know, but if they do lose, Dunlap may as well just apply for the draft because he will be blamed by the fans and the students.

Some SEC Championship Game History

Once again the Georgia Dome will be the center of the football universe on Championship Saturday, just as it should be. The SEC has long been considered by most who know the game to be the toughest and the hardest conference, week in and week out, top to bottom. But it’s amazing how long it took for the nation to make the connection between the SEC being the best conference and the best teams in the SEC perhaps being the best teams in the country. The SEC Championship has meant more on a national level than it ever has before over the last 4 years, and in particular over the last 2 years. It took a while but the SEC is finally getting the respect and it is definitely not unfounded. The SEC Championship is the original conference title game, made possible when Arkansas and South Carolina joined the 10-team SEC in 1991. The following year, at the end of the 1992 regular season, the inaugural SEC Championship Game was played between (fittingly) Alabama and Florida at Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama. The Crimson Tide took the first title game and went on to win the National Championship. No other league instituted a conference title game until the Big XII in 1995. The first two SEC Championship Games were played in Birmingham but the site was moved to the Georgia Dome in 1994 and it has been played there each year since.

Early on in the SEC Championship Game era, the two powerhouses of the conference dominated, with Florida and Alabama squaring off in each of the first 3 title games, Bama winning the first game, and Florida taking the next 2. In 1995, Arkansas became the first team other than Alabama to win the SEC West. Florida beat the Hogs that year and then in 1996 Alabama and Florida squared up for the 4th time in 5 years, with Florida winning again for their 4th SEC Championship in a row, on their way to the National Championship. Finally in 1997, Tennessee won the SEC East to snap Florida’s streak of 5 straight East Titles and Championship Game appearances, as well as their streak of 4 straight Conference Titles. Auburn won the West for the first time that year and they lost to Tennessee in the Title game, the first one played without either Florida or Alabama. Tennessee won a 2nd straight SEC Championship the next year, this time defeating Mississippi State on their way to a National Title. In 1999 Florida and Alabama matched up for the 5th time and this time it was the Tide who were victorious. The Gators got back to the Conference Championship Game again in 2000 and won their 5th title under Steve Spurrier by knocking off Auburn. In 2001 Tennessee made it back to the title game and LSU won the West for the first time. The Tigers knocked off the Vols, becoming the first SEC West team other than Bama to win the Title Game. In 2002 Georgia won the East for the first time and beat Arkansas for their first conference title in the Championship Game era. The Dawgs won the East again the following year but LSU beat them in the title game for their 2nd conference championship in 3 years, on their way to the National Title. The following season Auburn beat Tennessee in the title game for their first conference championship of the title game era, finishing off an undefeated campaign that somehow did not even allow them a chance at the NC. It’s amazing to think that it really wasn’t that long ago that an undefeated SEC champ was kept out of the BCS National Championship Game. Georgia and LSU met up in 2005 for a rematch of the 03 title game and this time the Dawgs came out on top for the their 2nd SEC Title in 4 years. In 2006, Urban Meyer led the Gators back to the title game for the first time since 2000 and Florida defeated Arkansas for their first conference championship since 2000. The Gators went on to win the NC. The following season LSU beat Tennessee in the title game for their 3rd SEC Title of the championship game era and the Tigers would go on to win the NC for the 2nd time in 5 years. Last season Florida and Alabama squared off for the 6th time in the SEC Championship Game, with the Gators winning their 7th SEC Title Game on their way to a 2nd NC in 3 years, and a 3rd straight for the SEC. This year the Tide and the Gators will meet for the 7th time in the 18 year history of the SEC Championship Game.

After Alabama won the inaugural SEC Championship Game, Florida won 4 straight, and Tennessee followed that up with back to back SEC Titles. Amazingly, since then, no team has repeated as SEC Champion. The Gators and Vols gave the SEC East 6 straight titles from 1993-1998, then the divisions took turns winning the title for 4 years until the SEC West won in 03 and 04 and the SEC East won in 05 and 06. Florida won the first 5 SEC East Titles, then Tennessee won 2 straight, then Florida won 2 more in a row in 1999 and 2000. The Dawgs repeated as East champs in 02 and 03 and the Gators have won the East the last 2 seasons. Alabama won the first 3 SEC West Titles and then amazingly no SEC West team went to back to back Championship Games again until the Tide did it last year and this year. Florida and Alabama will face off for the 7th time in the title game this season (Florida has won 4 of the previous 6); no other matchup has been played more than twice, although 4 matchups have repeated: Florida and Arkansas have played twice (Gators won both); Tennessee and Auburn have played twice (split); Tennessee and LSU have played twice (LSU won both); and Georgia and LSU have played twice (split). The Gators have the most appearances with 10, going 7-2 so far. Alabama has faced Florida in all 7 of their SEC Championship Game appearances (2-4 so far). Tennessee has played in 5 title games, going 2-3. LSU is 2nd to Florida in SEC Title Game wins, going 3-1 in 4 title games. 3 teams have played in 3 SEC Title Games. Georgia is 2-1 in 3 title games; Auburn is 1-2 in 3 title games; Arkansas is 0-3 in 3 title games. Mississippi State is the only team in the conference to have made the title game once and only once (they are 0-1). Ole Miss is the only West team never to appear in the Championship Game. Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vandy have yet to win the SEC East and play in the title game. Overall, the East has won 11 of the 17 Championship Games, outscoring the West 449-369.

7 SEC Title Game winners have gone on to win the NC. 2 SEC Title Game winners went on to lose to the eventual NC in a bowl game. 5 title games have been rematches from the regular season, with the regular season winner going 4-1. Outside of the Gators, the East is 4-4 vs. the West. In their 10 appearances, the Gators have been ranked as high as #1 in the AP (this year) and as low as 12th. In 7 appearances, Bama has been ranked as high as #1 (last year) and as low as 16th. Tennessee has been ranked as high as #1 and as low as #15 in 5 appearances. LSU’s highest ranking was #3; lowest ranking was #21. Arkansas has never been ranked higher than #8 and was ranked #22 and #23 in their other appearances. Auburn’s highest ranking was #3 and their lowest was #18. Georgia’s highest ranking was #4 and their lowest was #13. Mississippi State was ranked #23 in their appearance, tied with Arkansas for the worst ranking of any team in the SEC Championship Game. The worst SEC East ranking belongs to Tennessee in 2004 at #15. The lowest ranking winner was LSU in the crazy 2001 season at #21. There has been at least 1 team ranked #9 or better in all 18 games and both teams have been ranked #23 or better in all 18 games. Both teams have been ranked in the top 8 in 6 games; both in the top 11 in 8 games; both in the top 15 in 12 games. The lowest ranked team that was also the highest ranked team in the game was Florida at #9 in 1993. There has been at least 1 team in the top 5 in 16 of the title games; at least 1 team in the top 3 in 11 games; at least 1 team in the top 2 in 6 games; and the #1 ranked team in the country has appeared in the SEC Championship Game 3 times. Combining the rankings of the two teams in each title game, the worst was 26 in 2002 (#4 UGA vs. #22 Ark); the best was 3 (last season and this year, #1 Bama vs. #2 Fla; #1 Fla vs. #2 Bama). 3 of the first 6 title games were decided by 7 points or less, including a pair of 1 point games. Only once in the last 11 years has the title game been decided by less than 10 points and never by less than 7. 13 of 17 SEC Title Games have been decided by double digits; 15 of 17 by at least 7 points. The closest margin was 1 point, twice (94 and 97). The biggest margin of victory was Florida over Arkansas by 31 in 1995. The East team has had the better ranking in 12 of 18 matchups. That’s probably enough. Sorry, there’s a lot of history in the SEC.

SEC Championship Game Preview

The line was originally Florida -4 and I was going to take the Gators but 6 points is different. That means if the Gators don’t win by a TD or more they won’t cover. I think this game will be tight down to the final minute. In my opinion the Gators are looking better going into this game. Florida has the better offense and the better QB. The defenses are both very, very good. Both teams are well coached. There will be no crowd advantage for either team in the Dome. Both teams are banged up a bit, particularly at running back. Florida will be inspired, trying to make history, trying to establish themselves as the greatest Gator team of all time and one of the great dynasties in modern sports history. Still, the Dunlop situation has to be a distraction and could be a sign that they aren’t as hungry or as focused as they were at this point last year. Alabama may be the more desperate team, knowing that they’ve come all this way again, undefeated again, and they don’t want to wind up playing what amounts to a meaningless bowl game against perhaps another team from outside the BCS. History says that this game will be decided by at least 7 points and probably by double digits. Neither team has been particularly strong ATS this year. But I’m betting on a classic. I think Florida wins 24-20.

Game 10: Cal (-6.5) @ Washington
Pick: Cal covers
Comment: Strange game. Strange time for this game I guess. It seems like Cal’s last game should be against Stanford; Washington’s last game should be against Washington State. You wonder what the energy and focus will be like in this game. Washington can’t go to a bowl. Cal would seem to be fairly locked in. Is there that much difference right now between a 9-3 Pac-10 team and an 8-4 Pac-10 team. I don’t know, maybe there is. I mean if you’re a fan there is but these guys have been working non-stop for a long season. Maybe I’m way off but it could be a sloppy game. Both teams are definitely feeling the effects of injuries. Cal’s been without Jahvid Best for a while now but they’ve been hanging in there. The Huskies are 4-2 at home but Cal is 4-1 on the road this season. The Bears have won 5 of 6, while the Huskies have lost 6 of 8. The Bears are the better team, outscoring opponents by 8 points a game, while the Huskies have been outscored by 3.6 points a game. I’ll take Cal by a TD on the road. Washington let me down too many times early this year. I’ve got no faith in them.

Game 11: South Florida (+7) @ Connecticut
Pick: Connecticut covers
Comment: These teams have been hurt by injuries this year. USF opened the year 5-0 but has lost 4 of 6 since, and 5 of their last 6 ATS. UConn is just 6-5 on the year but the Huskies have lost twice by 2 points, once by 3 points, and twice by 4 points. In their 5 defeats, the Huskies have been outscored by a total of 15 points! They are 10-1 ATS, including 4-1 ATS at home. Home teams have won 5 straight in this series. I like UConn to win this game and they’ve been great ATS so far this year so I’ve got to ride with them.

Game 12: Texas (-14) vs. Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska beats the spread
Comment: This line had inched under 2 TD’s but now it’s back at 14 and that could be a huge deal.

Some Big XII Championship Game History

The Big XII Championship Game is clearly the best conference championship game after the SEC Championship; but it is clearly after the SEC Championship. The Big XII was formed in 1996 when the Big VIII combined with 4 teams from the disbanded Southwest Conference (Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor). With the league divided into 2 divisions of 6 teams each, the conference championship would be decided by a Conference Title Game just like the SEC had been doing since 1992. There are several key differences in the histories of the two major conference championship games. Perhaps the most obvious is that while the SEC Title Game has been played in only 2 locations and at the same location 15 out of 17 times, the Big XII Title Game has been hosted by 6 different cities, no spot more than 5 times, and no spot more than 2 years consecutively. The game has most often been played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, the spot of 5 Title Games. San Antonio has hosted the next most games with 3. The first ever Big XII Conference Championship Game was played in St. Louis; this year’s game as well as next year’s game will be played at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.

Another major difference between this title game and the SEC Championship is the lack of blockbuster matchups. Only once has the Big XII Title Game featured a matchup of two teams ranked in the top 8; only 4 teams has the game featured a matchup of teams ranked in the top 10. 3 unranked teams have made the Big XII Championship Game (Texas in 1996; Colorado in 2004 and 2005). Twice the highest ranking team in the Big XII Championship Game has been 8th. The Big XII Title Game has featured the #1 team 3 times; the #2 team 5 times; and the #3 team 3 times.

Yet another difference is the extent to which things have gotten one sided at certain points. In the first 6 years of the Big XII Title Game, 3 games were decided by 3 points or less (a pair of 2 point games and a 3 point game that was decided in double overtime). Things haven’t been as close over the last 7 years, as each of the last 7 seven Big XII Championship Games has been decided by 14 points or more; 6 of them by 21 points or more; 4 of them by 28 points or more; and 3 of them by 39 points or more. The Big XII Title Game has been decided by at least 10 points in 10 of 14 years; by at least 14 points in 9 years; by at least 21 points in 7 years; by at least 28 points in 5 years; by at least 39 points in 4 years; and once by 67 points (2005: Texas over Colorado, 70-3).

Finally, the Big XII Title Game has featured far more shockers and shakers than the SEC Championship. It began in the very first title game when an unranked Texas squad beat #3 Nebraska by 10 points. In 1998 KSU was the #2 team in the country heading into the title game but 10th ranked A&M shocked the Wildcats in a double OT thriller. In 2001, #9 Colorado pulled out a 2 point win over the #3 Texas Longhorns. But by far the biggest shocker came in 2003 when the hands down, consensus, no-brainer #1 Oklahoma Sooners went up against the #15 KSU Wildcats (whose star QB was embroiled in a sex scandal/investigation) and somehow ended up on the wrong end of a 38-7 score. In 2007 the 9th ranked Sooners played a Missouri team that somehow came into the game ranked #1 in the country, and Oklahoma won by 21 points. However, this really can not be counted among the surprises, as Oklahoma had already beaten the Tigers by 10 earlier that season and was a 3 point favorite in the title game. Oklahoma is sort of the Big XII Title Game’s equivalent to Florida. The Sooners have appeared in 7 Big XII Championship Games and have gone 6-1, winning 3 straight from 2006-2008. The Sooners won the South Division in 7 of 9 years from 2000 through last year, winning 6 titles over that time. Both Nebraska and Texas will be making title game appearance number 5 this year and both are 2-2 in their previous 4 trips to the Big XII Title Game. It will be the 3rd time that Nebraska and Texas have gone up against each other in the Big XII Championship, with the teams splitting the first two meetings. The Big XII South is 9-4 in the title game and South teams have won the last 5 Big XII Championships after the two divisions took turns winning the title during the first 8 years. What can we take from the history? Let me try and sum it up: an unthinkable upset just might occur…but if not there’s a really good chance that it will be a blowout.

Big XII Championship Game Preview

Moving on to this year’s matchup, Texas has rarely been tested this season. In fact, I wouldn’t say they have ever been in serious jeopardy of losing. I suppose it got pretty nerve racking against Oklahoma but I never really thought Texas would lose once Bradford was out of the game. That 3 point victory is the only game the Horns have won by less than 10 points this season. Nebraska has had an up and down year. Their defense is top notch and they merely need the offense to stay out of the way, make the occasional first down, hold on to the ball, and convert some field goals. The problem is that the offense has at times been too much for the defense to overcome. If Nebraska’s offense doesn’t give the game away there is a chance the Cornhuskers defense will keep them in it. Maybe Texas will make a mistake if they are finally put in a tough spot very late in the game. The problem is that as good as Nebraska’s defense is, Texas has a defense that is probably just as good if not better. And while Nebraska’s offense is their major weakness, the Longhorns are just as strong offensively as they are on defense. These two teams don’t play all that often but Texas has won 3 straight and 7 of the last 8 meetings. The Cornhuskers have won 5 in a row but they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7. They were actually out-gained by Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Baylor despite winning each of those games. Nebraska lost at home to Iowa State and got crushed at home by Texas Tech. They trailed 12-0 late in the 2nd half against Missouri. However, the Cornhuskers lost by just 2 to Iowa State despite 8 turnovers, and they lost by 1 at Virginia Tech, with the Hokies pulling off several miraculous plays on the final drive to win. My biggest concern is that Nebraska’s QB sucks and if they fall behind early they will be in trouble. But for some reason I just think Texas is going to win this one by 11 or so and not by 3 scores.

Game 13: Wisconsin (-12.5) @ Hawaii
Pick: Hawaii beats the spread
Comment: This one jumped out at me because of the timing and location. This has the feel of being an “extra” game, without much meaning. Wisconsin had last week off following a tough loss at Northwestern and now they’ll be out in Hawaii soaking up the sun, with nothing to gain from beating the Warriors. This will of course be a big game for Hawaii, who has won 4 straight to get to 6-6 and is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games. Hawaii always has a sizeable home field advantage and they are 4-2 at home this year. Last year they had Cincinnati beat in this exact situation but they let their emotions get them in trouble and some breaks went against them and they gave the game away in jaw dropping fashion. But they’re capable of catching a team napping. Wisconsin is just 2-2 on the road this year and 6-8 on the road over the last 3 seasons. The Badgers are 5-6 ATS this year, 1-3 ATS on the road. Over the last 3 seasons the Badgers are just 14-21 ATS, 4-10 ATS on the road. They began the season 5-0 but they are just 3-3 since, 2-4 ATS. I wondered if Wisconsin had made this late season trip to Hawaii before because it seemed to ring a bell and it turns out the Badgers have made this exact trip 3 times since 1996, winning all 3 games by at least 17 points, the last time in 2005. So maybe I’m making too much out of all of that stuff. But I’m going to stick with my initial reaction and take Hawaii to stay within 10 or 11.

Moneyline Special

Fresno State over Illinois: Fresno State is a 3 point underdog at Illinois this week. Illinois sure is playing a different schedule than most Big Ten teams. And you gotta love Pat Hill and the Bulldogs of Fresno State. They play teams from the bigger conferences early, middle, late, whenever. The good news for Fresno State is that star running back Ryan Mathews is expected to play in this game after missing some time following a head injury. That is huge. Fresno State was off last week while Illinois lost to Cincinnati. There’s not much at stake for Illinois except for pride. They are 3-8 on the season. The Illini are just 2-3 at home this year after going 9-3 at home the previous 2 years. Illinois is 4-7 ATS this year, just 1-4 ATS at home. However, Illinois has beaten the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after starting the year 0-6 ATS. Fresno is 3-3 on the road this year and 8-5 on the road the last 2 years. They are 6-4 ATS this season, and just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games, but they are 5-1 ATS on the road this year. Fresno State has won 6 of their last 7 heading into this one. They have better numbers than the Zookers in almost every area and I’m going to take Fresno State to beat Illinois in Champaign this weekend.

Clemson over Georgia Tech: The Tigers are 1-point underdogs against Tech in the ACC Championship Game held at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa this Saturday.

Some ACC Championship Game History

The ACC Championship Game is in only its 5th year of existence but so far it is running a very, very distant 3rd behind the SEC and Big XII Championship Games. Virginia Tech won the Costal Division 3 of the first 4 years, with Georgia Tech winning it in 2006 and again this season. Florida State won the first Atlantic Division Title, followed by Wake Forrest the next season. The Atlantic Division champ ended up being the ACC Champ in each of the first two years, as FSU beat VT in 2005, and then WF beating Tech in 2006. In 2007 and 2008 VT won the Costal Division and then knocked off Atlantic Division Champ Boston College in the ACC Title Game for back to back conference titles. Clemson won the Atlantic Division for the first time this year. There isn’t as much interest in this game normally because it rarely has a big effect on the national landscape. Including this year’s matchup, no team playing in the ACC Title Game has been ranked higher than 5th. In 3 of 5 years one of the teams has been ranked 20th or worse. In the first ACC Championship Game, VT came in at 10-1 and ranked 5th in the country but they lost by 5 points to a 7-4 FSU team ranked 22nd. The next year it was #16 Wake Forrest (not exactly a traditional powerhouse) coming in at 10-2 and beating #22 Georgia Tech (9-3 going in) 9-6 in an ugly and boring game. The 2007 ACC Title Game had the best matchup so far (at least in terms of rankings) with #5 VT (10-2 going in) taking on #12 BC (10-2 going in), and winning by 14 points. The next season it was a BC/VT rematch, but this time VT was 8-4 and unranked and BC was 9-3 and ranked #20. Virginia Tech won by 18 points this time. In this year’s game it will be #15 Clemson (8-4 coming in) against #7 Georgia Tech (10-2 coming in).

ACC Championship Game Preview

Both of these teams are coming off of surprising and crushing losses to their in-state rivals from the SEC. Tech is also banged up a bit coming into the game. I really don’t know how much of a carry over there will be for Clemson, as their season has been up and down throughout and they’ve controlled the rivalry with South Carolina during this decade. For GT, it’s a little different, as they were 10-1 heading into last week’s game against the 6-5 Dawgs at home, and they expected to get their 2nd consecutive win over UGA, after Georgia had taken 7 straight and 14 of 17 from them. They got run over and I don’t know if they’ll be able to get back up for this game, even if it is for a conference title. The first game between these two teams this season was excellent. Tech came out fired up at home on Thursday night and hit Clemson with a flurry of blows early to take a big lead, but Clemson made a furious rally, turning the game upside down after it appeared they would be blown out. The Jackets recovered and got some major help on some key and highly questionable penalty calls. Tech went on to win on a field goal. This rematch should be just as close. I definitely think Tech is the better team but I think they took a shot to the balls last week and I’m not sure they’re going to be over it in time for this game. I’ll take the Tigers to win a very close ball game.

West Virginia over Rutgers: West Virginia is a 1.5 point underdog on the road against Rutgers this week. Yawn. Rutgers has now won at least 7 games in 5 straight seasons, at least 8 games in 4 straight years, and a win on Saturday and in a bowl game would give Rutgers its 2nd 10 win season in 4 years. That’s remarkable progress for a program that was a joke for many years. But this year could have been better. True they lost Ray Rice last year and Mike Teel this year but they really only had 5 losable games this season and 4 of them were at home. They drew Cincinnati, Pitt, USF, and West Virginia at home. If they lose to the Mountaineers on Saturday they’ll be 1-3 in those games which isn’t very good. They did beat UConn on the road in the other game they could possible have lost. Oh, but then they found a way to lose one of their unlosable games, falling by EIGHTEEN points at Syracuse. Bad. So take away home wins over Howard, FIU, and Texas Southern and road wins over Maryland, Army, and Louisville--which are all games that you really shouldn’t receive any credit for winning, only grief for losing—and Rutgers is so far 2-3 with an 18 point loss to the Cuse. West Virginia’s season became much more note worthy with their win over rival Pitt last week. I still think they’re on the wrong path under Bill Stewart but if they win this weekend they’ll have won 9 games in his first two seasons as coach.

Neither of these teams has done well ATS this year. Rutgers has already lost twice at home this year (and on the road to Syracuse by 18) but West Virginia’s only road win this year was at Syracuse (who beat Rutgers at home by 18 in case you didn’t know). I think the Mountaineers are the better team and they’ve won 14 straight over the Knights and are 30-4-2 all time vs. Rutgers. So I’m going with WV by 4 to 6 points.

Florida Atlantic over Florida International: FAU is a 1.5 point underdog on the road against FIU this weekend. Florida Atlantic has had the upper hand in this not-so-ancient rivalry. Many football fans probably don’t know that these teams exist or that they play in the FBS. Most college football fans that are aware of these schools probably get them confused, as they are mostly nameless and faceless teams, separated by just one initial and around 50 miles of the Florida coast. Florida Atlantic (FAU) is located in Boca Raton. The Owls began playing football in 2001, made the jump to the FBS in 2004, and joined the Sun Belt in 2005. Howard Schnellenberger has been FAU’s head coach for the program’s entire existence. Going into this season the Owls had compiled a 31-30 record in their 5 seasons of FBS play. Last year they averaged just over 16,000 fans a game. Florida International (FIU) is located in Miami. The Panthers began playing football in 2002 and joined the SBC in 2005. In their 4 seasons playing a full FBS schedule, the Panthers have compiled an 11-36 record. FIU suffered through a 23 game losing streak that lasted from the opening game of the 2006 season through the second to last game of the 2007 season. Unfortunately, the Panthers are probably most famous for the brawl they got into with Miami back in 2006, resulting in the suspension of 18 FIU players. While FAU has played in and won bowl games in each of the last two seasons, FIU has yet to sniff a bowl game. These two teams are natural rivals, and the Owls have owned the Panthers, winning 6 of their 7 meetings, including the last 3 in a row. FIU’s lone win in the series is a random 52-6 win in 2005.

FAU joined Arkansas State as the disappointing teams in the SBC this season and really it’s been back to back disappointing seasons for Schnellenberger’s boys. The Owls won their final 2 games in 2006 and then went 8-5 in 2007, stunning everybody by going 6-1 in the conference (their only Sun Belt loss was a triple OT defeat to ULM) to win the SBC. They beat Memphis handedly in the New Orleans Bowl. Last year FAU expected to build on their success but they started the year 1-5. They turned things around with a 5-1 finish and then stunned Central Michigan in the Motor City Bowl. Once again FAU was expected to compete for the SBC title this year but they lost their first 4 games. They have gone 4-3 since but they’re just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. The Owls are just 3-7 ATS this season. In FAU’s defense, they do have a pair of 2 point losses and a 7 point loss. After going 0-12 and 1-11 in 2006 and 2007 respectively, the FIU Golden Panthers made big strides last year to finish 5-7 and a few close losses away from a winning season. This year, however, FIU started 0-4. The Panthers are 3-4 since then but they are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games.

FAU is the better team in all areas and FIU comes into this game very banged up. The Owls have owned this rivalry game (oddly known as the “Shula Bowl”) and they should win it again this year. And it actually might be worth watching, folks. Last year’s game was tied up at 22-22 after 3 quarters, before the two teams combined for a 56 point 4th quarter, sending the game into OT tied at 50-50. FAU eventually won it in the first OT, 57-50