The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 15 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (10-6); Straight Up (11-5)
Season: Vs. Spread (100-106-1); Straight Up (136-71)

Week 14 Review: A solid week for me. I’m in position to get back to .500 if I can finish the season strong.

Week 15 Preview: The end of the season is always tricky but for some reason this week seems very tough. Usually there are at least a couple or three games that I feel very strongly about right off the bat each week. That’s not the case this week. There’s not one game that jumps out at me as a slam dunk this week. I’m going with quite a few heavy favorites and quite a few road teams. That could potentially spell disaster. On the positive side, Saturday games are upon us. That means things are about to get really serious.

Thursday’s Game

Indianapolis (-3) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Colts cover
Comment: Is it just me or do we see this exact matchup every single year? Indy is 9-3-1 ATS this year, while the Jags are just 5-8. The Colts are 6-0 on the road (6-0 ATS) and they’ve won 4 straight ATS. Jacksonville is 5-2 at home but just 2-5 ATS in those games. The Jags are also just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. This will actually be the first home game shown locally in Jacksonville this season. Back in week 1, the Colts were 6.5 point favorites at home against the Jags, but they had to eke out a 14-12 win. Indy has won its last 2 trips to Jacksonville. Last season in week 16 the two teams met on a Thursday night in Jacksonville. The Colts were 6 point favorites but the Jags led for most of the game. Eventually, however, the Colts came back and won it 31-24. I’ve thought the Jags have been much weaker than their record suggested all season. I think the Colts will keep rolling towards perfection this Thursday and it’s not a big spread. I like Indy to win by 6 or 7.

Saturday’s Game

Dallas (+7) New Orleans
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: Like the Colts, the Saints are looking to go 14-0 against a team fighting to make the playoffs. But the Saints will be playing at home. The Cowboys are now just 6-7 ATS on the season, while the Saints are 8-5. Dallas is 3-3 on the road (2-4 ATS); the Saints are of course 6-0 at the Superdome this year (4-2 ATS). Neither one of these teams has been lighting it up lately. The Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, while the Saints are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7. If the Cowboys are without DeMarcus Ware for this game they are going to be in trouble. The crowd should be electric and the Cowboys have so far been unable to clear the mental hurdles that wreck them each winter. I think the Saints will pull away and win by double digits.

Sunday’s Early Games

Chicago (+11) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: Man, I hoped with all my heart that Jay Cutler’s first season in Chicago would go poorly, but I never dared to dream that it would go this badly. The Bears are 4-9 ATS and they’ve lost 6 straight ATS. Chicago is 1-5 on the road this year (1-5 ATS) and has been outscored by 12 points a game on the road. The Ravens are 5-2 at home (4-3 ATS) and have a +15.8 average scoring margin at home. Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS in its last 4 but the Bears are awful. I think the Ravens will continue the push for the playoffs and win by at least 2 TD’s.

New England (-7) @ Buffalo
Pick: Patriots cover
Comment: The Patriots are now just 5-7-1 ATS and they are 1-5 on the road this season (1-4-1 ATS), with that 1 road win coming against the Bucs in London. Remember the first meeting between these two teams this year back in week 1? Think how much hotter the water would be for the Patriots if the Bills hadn’t given that game away. The miraculous 25-24 win was the 12th straight won by New England in this series. The Bills are 2-3 at home this year (2-3 ATS) but they are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall, while the Patriots have lost 3 in a row ATS. This is not that big of a spread. The Patriots have to win this game and I think they’ll do so by 8 or 9.

Arizona (-12.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Cardinals cover
Comment: Arizona’s performance against the Niners on Monday night was pathetic but the turnovers can be eliminated or at the very least cut down to 2 or 3 instead of a million. Detroit is just about cashed. The Lions don’t have much talent to begin with and they have been crushed by injuries. Daunte Culpepper is likely starting at QB for the Lions in this one. Culpepper was 16 for 34 for 135 yards, 0 TD, and 2 INT in last week’s blowout loss to the Ravens. Kevin Smith, the Lions leading rusher and 2nd leading receiver, is out for the season. The Lions are 3-9-1 ATS this year, 2-4 at home (2-4 ATS), and just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games. The Cards are still 8-5 ATS and they are 5-2 on the road this year (5-2 ATS). Arizona is also still 7-3 in its last 10 games ATS. I think they will rebound with a blowout of Detroit.

Cleveland (+1) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chiefs cover
Comment: I’m really torn over this hideous game. The trends say that I should go with the Browns, but the Chiefs are at home and they will have Dwayne Bowe back. The Browns are actually 7-6 ATS this year, while the Chiefs are 5-8. Cleveland is 1-6 on the road but 4-3 ATS on the road. KC is an embarrassing 1-6 at Arrowhead this year, 2-5 ATS. The Chiefs have lost 3 straight ATS, while the Browns have beaten the spread in 4 straight games. Everything is pointing towards the Browns but I’m going to take the Chiefs to win by a field goal.

Atlanta (+6) @ New York Jets
Pick: Falcons pull off the upset
Comment: I don’t have much here other than a strong belief that the Falcons will get the job done this Sunday. The Falcons are 8-5 ATS this season. The Falcons have gone just 1-5 on the road this year but they are 3-3 ATS in those games. The Jets are just 3-3 at home this season (3-3 ATS) but they have won 3 straight ATS. Obviously injuries are a big story in this matchup. It looks like Marc Sanchez will be able to play for the home team. The Falcons injuries are less clear. Matt Ryan may or may not play. Michael Turner may or may not play. I don’t have any inside information; I just have a feeling that both players will be in action on Sunday. The Falcons have lost 6 of 8 but they still have a chance to finish the season with a winning record for a 2nd consecutive season and finally rid the franchise of that awful little fact about never putting together back to back winning seasons. I like the Falcons to pull off the upset at the Meadowlands.

San Francisco (+9) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles win but Niners beat the spread
Comment: While I was impressed with the Niners performance on Monday night, they did benefit from about 35 turnovers. Still, I think they can hang around with the Eagles. The Niners are 8-3-2 ATS this season; the Eagles are 8-5 ATS. San Fran is just 1-5 on the road but 3-1-2 ATS in those games. The Eagles are 4-2 at home (3-3 ATS). Philly is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games. The Eagles are getting healthier but they still will likely be without Jeremy Maclin and Brian Westbrook. I like the Eagles to win by 7 or 8.

Houston (-11.5) @ St. Louis
Pick: Texans cover
Comment: The Rams are either going to have Kyle Boller or Keith Null at quarterback. Houston is actually 3-3 on the road this year (4-2 ATS), although they are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. The Rams are winless in 6 home games so far this season (2-4 ATS at home). The Texans are without Steve Slaton but they can’t afford to lose any more games and they will be going up against a terrible St. Louis team. They should be able to win by at least 2 TD’s.

Miami (+3) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Dolphins beat the spread
Comment: This may be the toughest game of the week to pick, with both teams coming into the game hot and with no margin for error. The Dolphins are 3-4 on the road so far this season (4-3 ATS), having been outscored by an average of 4.7 points per game in away contests. The Titans are 4-2 at home (3-3 ATS) and have an average scoring margin of +9.9 at home. Vince Young’s hamstring is obviously a major issue but I believe he’ll play through it. I like the Titans to win by a point or two in an extremely close game.

Sunday’s Late Games

Oakland (+14) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos win but Raiders beat the spread
Comment: This could be a tricky little game for the Broncos. Oakland is 2-4 on the road this season (3-3 ATS), while the Broncos are 4-2 at home (4-2 ATS). In week 3, the Broncos went to Oakland favored by just a point and came away with a 23-3 victory. This time they will most likely not have Cory Buckhalter but Oakland will be led by Charlie Frye. I think the Broncos will win this one by 10.

Cincinnati (+6.5) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers cover
Comment: The Cowboys and Bengals sure have been playing some teams lately. Cincinnati could be playing this game with a heavy heart, depending on what happens with Chris Henry over the next few days. The Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, having won 8 straight (6-2 ATS in those games), while the Bengals have now lost 4 straight ATS. Cincinnati is 4-2 on the road this season (3-3 ATS), while the Chargers are 4-2 at home (3-3 ATS). This doesn’t seem like too big of a spread. I like the Chargers to win by at least a TD.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) @ Seattle
Pick: Seahawks cover
Comment: Neither team is very good but the Seahawks are still decent at home. The Bucs are 4-9 ATS this season and winless in 6 road games (3-3 ATS on the road). Tampa is just 1-3 in its last 4 ATS. Seattle is just 5-8 ATS this season, but the Seahawks are 4-2 at home (4-2 ATS) and they have outscored opponents by an average of 9 points a game at home. Nate Burleson is unlikely to play for Seattle but they should have enough to win this one by double digits.

Green Bay (+1) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Packers pull off the upset
Comment: I have doubted Green Bay most of this season but they continue to get the job done. The Steelers are a total mystery. You keep thinking that they can’t possibly lose another game in a row and yet at some point you have to start thinking that it’s not an accident. GB is 8-4-1 ATS in 2009, 4-2 on the road (4-2 ATS), and has won 5 in a row (4-0-1 ATS over those last 5 games). The Steelers are just 4-9 ATS this year, and while they are 4-2 at home, they’re just 2-4 ATS at home. Pittsburgh has lost 5 straight, going 1-4 ATS during that stretch. I think this will be another close game but I think the Packers will come out victorious and put Pittsburgh’s slim postseason hopes to rest.

Sunday Night’s Game

Minnesota (-9) @ Carolina
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: This could be a tricky game but the spread isn’t too large. Carolina will have Matt Moore under center again. Carolina is just 3-3 at home this season (2-4 ATS) after going undefeated at home last year. The Vikings are 4-2 on the road (4-2 ATS). Minnesota is 3-1 in its last 4 ATS. Carolina has nothing to play for, while the Vikings still have a chance to improve their playoff position. I’ll take the Vikes to win by double digits.

Monday Night’s Game

New York Giants (-3) @ Washington
Pick: Skins pull off the upset
Comment: I’ve thought all along that the Redskins would have some effect on the way things end up in the NFC East. The Giants are no longer an elite defensive team, while the Skins are quietly improving on offense. New York is now just 1-7 ATS over its last 8 games; Washington has beaten the spread in 5 straight. I like the Skins to give their fans a thrill and deal the G-Men a major blow with an upset win at home.