The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 13 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (10-6); Straight Up (14-2)
Season: Vs. Spread (85-89-1); Straight Up (116-59)

Week 12 Review: Well obviously that was my best overall week of this year. I was only 5-5 ATS and 8-2 straight up through Sunday’s early games but then I went 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS the rest of the way.

Week 13 Preview: I really don’t like this week’s schedule. There are a lot of big spreads which are harder to read in my opinion. I’m only 4 games under .500 ATS so I hope I don’t have a major setback this week.

Thursday’s Games

New York Jets (-3) vs. Buffalo (Toronto)
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: I feel sorry for Bills fans that have to deal with a hopeless team giving away one home game a year to another country. The Bills won earlier this season at the Meadowlands but that was a total fluke, as the Jets out-gained Buffalo by 118 yards and lost in OT. The Bills have beaten the spread in 4 of their last 6 games, while the Jets are just 2-6 straight up in their last 8 (and 2-6 ATS). However, the Bills are banged up and this game will be played under strange circumstances, on Thursday night and in Toronto. Rex Ryan is looking a lot like the fat, loud mouthed, idiot that a lot of us thought he would be while everyone else was so excited about the supposed genius who was going to interject all this life into the franchise. He has by far the best team in this matchup (in all areas) and the other team doesn’t even have a head coach, so he really needs to win this game or else his talking to the media privileges should be taken away.

Sunday’s Early Games

Philadelphia (-5.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: I’d like to hold out some hope that the Falcons will win this huge game for them but I don’t think it’s going to happen. Both teams have numerous stars out with injuries but the Eagles are simply a deeper team than Atlanta. They are better equipped to deal with the injuries than the Falcons. The Mike Vick situation is really irrelevant except that if he does play he will likely receive cheers, which will only be further proof that the number of real Falcons fans strongly behind the team is quite small. The place should be packed with Falcons fans trying to make as much noise as possible to help their team that needs this win desperately. Instead, the place will be packed because a freakishly athletic former player who let down the franchise and all the real fans will be on the visiting team’s sideline, unlikely to make any impact at all on the field. That’s pathetic. I think if the Falcons are ever going to have a dedicated, passionate, and loyal fan base they will have to move away from downtown Atlanta. The Falcons are 5-0 at home (4-1 ATS) but they have lost 4 of their last 6 and they are 1-6 against the Eagles this decade. If the Falcons do somehow win this game it could end up being one of the biggest in franchise history.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers win but Bucs beat the spread
Comment: I can’t decide whether it helps or hurts the Panthers that Jake Delhomme will not play this Sunday. Tampa nearly won in Atlanta last Sunday and they probably would have if not for some “over managing” by their young and seemingly over-his-head coach. When was the last time that the young former coordinator who yells and screams on the sideline and does chest bumps with the defense ended up being a successful head coach? I’m not sure it’s happened even once. Tampa is 0-5 on the road but the Panthers are just 2-3 at home (1-4 ATS). Carolina should be able to run all over the Bucs but Tampa is 3-1 ATS in its last 4 and 3-2 ATS on the road this year. Carolina will win by 3.

St. Louis (+9.5) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears win but Rams beat the spread
Comment: The Rams are awful but so are the Bears. The Lams are 3-2 ATS on the road and 3-1 ATS in their last 4. The Bears have lost 4 straight and 6 of 7 (1-6 ATS). The Rams average just 8.8 points a game on the road but I still don’t think the Bears will win by double digits.

Detroit (+13) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Bengals cover
Comment: The Lions are 0-5 on the road this year (0-4-1 ATS) and have been outscored by an average of 19.4 points per game on the road. Strangely, the Bengals are just 2-3 as a favorite this season and 0-5 ATS as a favorite. And yet I have to think that they can win by 2 TD’s at home against these Lions.

Tennessee (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Titans beat the spread
Comment: The Titans are red hot with 5 straight wins (5-0 ATS) but they will have to upset the 11-0 Colts on the road to keep it going. Indy is 7-3-1 ATS this year and 5-0 at home but just 1-3-1 ATS at home this season. I think the Colts win by 3.

Houston (+1) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Texans pull off the upset
Comment: Battle of pretenders. The Texans have dropped 3 straight but they are a surprising 3-2 on the road this year (4-1 ATS). Jax is 4-7 ATS this year and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. The Jags are 4-1 at home but just 1-4 ATS at home. Jacksonville has actually been outscored by 4.8 points a game this year. Texans get a win to snap their skid.

Denver (-4.5) @ Kansas City
Pick: Broncos cover
Comment: KC is just 1-4 at home this season but the Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games. Denver is getting healthier, however, and the Broncos are significantly better than the Chiefs in all areas. I see Denver winning by a TD.

Oakland (+14) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: The Steelers are just 4-7 ATS this year but they should have Big Ben back this week. The Raiders have been outscored by 16.4 points a game on the road this season, while the Steelers are +6.0 Pts/G at home this year. Steelers will win by 3 scores.

New Orleans (-9.5) @ Washington
Pick: Saints win but Redskins beat the spread
Comment: The Skins are 1-4 ATS at home this year while the Saints are 4-1 ATS on the road. Washington is banged up and has lost 6 of 7 but the Skins have beaten the spread in 3 straight. I think the Saints will stay undefeated but the Skins will stay within 8 points by playing decent defense.

New England (-3) @ Miami
Pick: Patriots cover
Comment: The Pats are just 1-4 on the road this year but they are pissed off. I think the Patriots win by 25 and end any speculation about the Dolphins making the postseason.

Sunday’s Late Games

San Diego (-13) @ Cleveland
Pick: Chargers cover
Comment: The Chargers are +10.8 P/G on the road; the Browns are -15.2 P/G at home. San Diego has won 6 straight and covered in 4 straight. The Browns are 0-4 at home this season while the Chargers are 4-1 on the road. I see the Chargers winning by 3 scores.

Dallas (-1) @ New York Giants
Pick: Cowboys cover
Comment: The Boys have won 6 of 7, while the G-Men have lost 5 of 6 and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. The Giants are 1-3-1 ATS at home this year. I like the Cowboys to put New York out of the NFC Title race with a win at Giants Stadium this Sunday.

San Francisco (+1) @ Seattle
Pick: Niners pull off the upset
Comment: The Niners are 1-4 on the road this season and the Seahawks are +10.2 P/G at home this year. However, the Niners are 7-2-2 ATS this season and Seattle is 4-7 ATS. San Fran gets a big road win to stay alive in the NFC West race.

Sunday Night’s Game

Minnesota (-4) @ Arizona
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: I don’t know if Warner is going to play but I don’t think it will matter. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS on the road this year. Arizona is 2-3 at home this season and -4.0 P/G at home. I bet the Vikes blow the Cardinals out.

Monday Night’s Game

Baltimore (+3) @ Green Bay
Pick: Ravens pull off the upset
Comment: As a Falcons fan, I’m really hoping the Packers lose this one, but they’ve won 3 in a row now. Baltimore is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games. However, despite similar records, I think the Ravens are a decidedly better team than the Pack, and I think Baltimore pulls off a road upset on MNF.