The College Football Blog: 2009 Week 15 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-8); Moneyline Upsets (3-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (58-96-4); Moneyline Upsets (14-29)

Week 14 Review: Again, not as bad as it could have been but not nearly as good as I’d hoped. Guess I shouldn’t have bet on Hawaii, huh.

Week 15 Preview: It’s pretty simple: not much to gain or lose.

Saturday

Game 1: Army (+14) vs. Navy
Pick: Army beats the spread
Comment: Let’s start this off with a question: how annoying is it that Army and Navy decided to hold their annual rivalry game the week after every other regular season or conference championship game was played? The answer: quite. Not only does the stand alone Army-Navy game create an inconvenience for me--as I have to do another week of betting lines just for them—but the game is holding up the entire bowl season. Amazingly, the NCAA and the bowl series idiots allowed for a situation where the bowl matchups will not be completely set until after this Saturday’s Army-Navy game. If Army wins, they will be bowl eligible and will automatically be headed for the Eaglebank Bowl in Washington, D.C., where they will play Temple on December 29th. If Navy wins this Saturday then Army will not go to any bowl. Instead, UCLA will play Temple in the Eaglebank Bowl. Of course, if Army does win then UCLA will be staying home. Feel that, Coach Neuheisel. The Army-Navy game hasn’t been relevant nationally in decades and that has been just fine because for those involved the rivalry is bigger than all of that. But somebody decided that the game needed to be viewed by more people and have more meaning for the average TV viewer and so here we are. And people will still find just about anything else to do besides watch this game. I’m actually interested in the game but I’m interested in every college football game. Folks who aren’t interested in every college football game will remain uninterested in this one.

There’s no question that Navy is the better team; they have been throughout the decade. The Midshipmen have won 7 straight over their rivals, going 6-1 against the spread in those games. During the 7 game win streak, Navy has won each game by at least 12 points and by an average of 29 points. So why might this year be different? Well, first of all, I still think Navy will win fairly easily. Secondly, the difference this year is that Army is more competitive than it has been in years. The Black Knights are 5-6 on the season (4-7 ATS) and they had never won more than 4 games in any season during this decade. True, most of their wins have come against weak opponents but they actually beat Vandy this year. Navy has now won at least 8 games in each of the last 7 seasons.
The Midshipmen are 8-4 on the season and 7-5 ATS. While Army has been out-scored by an average of almost 8 points a game this year, the Midshipmen have out-scored opponents by an average of 7 points a game. But the difference is not as great as it has been recently. Actually, Army is almost Navy’s equal defensively, allowing just 1.1 points per game more, and averaging less yards allowed per game. I expect Navy to extend its win streak in the rivalry to 8 games and keep Army from its first bowl appearance since 1996. But I think the Knights will stay within 12 points.