The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 16 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (4-9-3); Straight Up (9-7).
Season: Vs. Spread (104-115-4); Straight Up (145-78).

Week 15 Review: What a weird week in the NFL. There were a number of upsets, great finishes, and hardly any big favorites covering. It was a strange week for me as well. Going into last week I had pushed exactly once all year. Last week I pushed in 3 games. It could have been worse. But I wasn’t really able to comprehend what was going on anyway because I was dealing with trying to get home from New York City and then out to Montana during a blizzard. Honestly, with how crazy last week was, I really wasn’t all that disappointed with my record ATS or straight up.

Week 16 Preview: It’s been a crazy week for me and these picks are a bit rushed to say the least. I’m not feeling much pressure because I’ve kind of given up on the idea of going .500 ATS after last week’s problems. I’d have to go 22-10 over the final 2 weeks and that seems unlikely. Anyway, the last couple weeks are always hard because of all the extra factors you have to add in like motivation and playing time and everything else. So here are my slightly hurried week 16 picks.

Friday’s Game

San Diego (+3) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Chargers beat the spread
Comment: Maybe I’m forgetting something obvious but I can’t remember the last time there was an NFL game on a Friday night. I’m hedging a bit here because I’m really torn on this one. However, it’s not really a hedge because this could easily end up being a 1 or 2 point game. Both of these teams are red hot but the Chargers have been a bit hotter. San Diego has won 9 straight; the Titans have won 7 of 8. The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7; Tennessee is just 1-3 ATS in the last 4 games. San Diego is 6-1 on the road (4-3 ATS on the road); the Titans are 5-2 at home (3-4 ATS at home). If you figure that both teams are very good and both are playing very well at the moment, you might give a slight edge to the Titans due to home field advantage. But the Titans suffered a couple of injuries that I don’t think are being looked at enough. Tennessee lost linebackers David Thornton and Keith Bulluck last week, both for the season. That could be huge. Then again, San Diego has the #2 seed pretty well sewn up and has no shot at the #1 seed, while the Titans are playing for their playoff lives, so the motivation factor would seem to point towards Tennessee. Also, back in 2007 when Vince Young playing QB for the Titans, San Diego beat the Titans in OT in December and then knocked them out of the playoffs a few weeks later. San Diego should be motivated as well, however, as there is bad blood in this series and a win would allow the Chargers to have a virtual bye week in week 17. Thus, my hedging. It should be a close one.

Sunday’s Early Games

Buffalo (+9) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons cover
Comment: I think the Falcons should definitely beat the Bills at home by double digits but the Bills have only lost 4 games by double digits this year and the Falcons have only won 3 games by double digits this season. Also, Buffalo is actually 3-4 on the road this season and 5-2 ATS on the road. The Falcons are 5-2 at home (5-2 ATS) but they’ve lost their last 2 at the Georgia Dome and could easily be on a 3 game home losing skid. The Falcons figure to be the more motivated team, as a winning record seems to be important to the team. It’s certainly important to us Falcons fans. The Falcons have their QB back now and that makes them a much more formidable opponent, especially against a team like Buffalo with little offense to speak of. Terrell Owens always seems to hurt the Falcons but hopefully this time he’ll be held in check. Ryan Fitzgerald has been playing QB for the Bills but his status for this game is up in the air. If Fitzgerald can’t play the Bills will be in some trouble because Trent Edwards is out for the year. Fitzgerald is hardly a solid starting QB but I have to think the Bills will be better off with him than Brian Brohm. The Falcons should win fairly easily.

Kansas City (+13.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Bengals win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: KC seems to have quit on the season a bit, having lost 4 straight (0-4 ATS). Clearly the Bengals have all the motivation on their side, needing only a win to clinch a rare playoff birth, and with the recent death of teammate Chris Henry still on the mind. It would seem logical to think the Bengals would blow this one out but Cinci is 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season! Kansas City is 2-4 on the road (3-3 ATS) while the Bengals are 5-2 at home but just 3-4 ATS at home. Cinci is 1-4 ATS over the last 5 games. I think the Bengals will win easily but I’m guessing the final spread will be more like 10 points.

Oakland (+3) @ Cleveland
Pick: Browns win but Raiders beat the spread
Comment: This is another tough one and once again I’m hedging a bit. The QB situation is a bit fuzzy for both teams. Cleveland will be going with Derek Anderson now that Brady Quinn is out for the season. Oakland could go with any of three QB’s. The Browns have now won back-to-back games and have beaten the spread in 5 straight weeks. The Raiders are 3-3 in their last 6 games. Oakland is traveling but the Raiders are actually 3-4 on the road this year and 4-3 ATS on the road. The Browns are just 1-5 at home (3-3 ATS). I’ll take the Browns to win a nail biter.

Seattle (+14) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: The Packers need to keep winning to sew things up and they are coming off of a heartbreaking one-point loss at Pittsburgh. They should be fired up. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are banged up (as always) and seem to have found rock bottom. They were blown out at home by the Bucs last week and they are now just 5-9 ATS this season. They are 1-6 on the road (1-6 ATS). Green Bay has won 5 of 6 (5-0-1 ATS) and is one play away from a 6 game win streak. The Packers are 9-4-1 ATS this season and 5-2 at home (4-2-1 ATS). Green Bay should roll.

Houston (+3) @ Miami
Pick: Dolphins cover
Comment: I don’t know how the Fins keep hanging in there but they do. The Texans are just lucky they still have a shot. Houston is 1-4 ATS over the last 5; Miami is 4-1 ATS over the last 5. I can’t believe I’m giving Miami this much credit but I think they’ll win by 8 or 9.

Carolina (+7) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants win but Panthers beat the spread.
Comment: Both teams are coming off of blowout wins. The G-Men are fighting for the playoffs; the Panthers are not. New York is just 4-3 at home this season and only 2-4-1 ATS at home. Carolina is just 2-5 on the road but 4-3 ATS on the road. The Panthers seem to be better off without Jake Delhomme. They won’t have DeAngelo Williams this week but as we know they have another great running back to lean on. I like the Giants to win by less than a TD.

Jacksonville (+9) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Jags beat the spread
Comment: The Jags are fighting for their playoff lives but the Patriots have to keep winning as well. The weather could be a factor but I’m not even sure who that favors. Jacksonville is 2-4 on the road this season, while the Pats are 7-0 at home, but New England has not been blowing teams out lately. The Patriots are 2-4-1 in their last 7 ATS. The Jags are even worse. For the season, the Jags are 5-9 ATS. They have lost 3 of 4 straight up and 8 of 10 ATS. Still, I just don’t think they’ll lose by 10 to the Patriots.

Tampa Bay (+14) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: The Bucs are coming off of their best game of the season and their first road victory. The Saints are coming off of their first loss of the season and it came at home. But New Orleans still has work to do to clinch the #1 seed. The Saints are only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 but I think they’ll win this one big.

Baltimore (+3) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers win but Ravens beat the spread
Comment: Another hedge. Baltimore is 2-4 on the road this year while the Steelers are 5-2 at home. Pittsburgh is just 4-10 ATS this season. The Steelers have had the upper hand in this rivalry in recent years. They nearly won in Baltimore with a backup QB earlier this year. Big Ben kept the Steelers breathing with a last second TD pass last week and both of these teams are desperate. It should be a hard hitting, violent classic, and both teams could run out of players by game’s end.

Sunday’s Late Games

St. Louis (+14) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals cover
Comment: We don’t know how motivated the Cards will be but St. Louis is horrible and decimated by injury.

Detroit (+13) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners cover
Comment: The Lions are starting Drew Stanton at QB and the Niners are at home. San Fran should win big.

Denver (+7) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: Denver choked hardcore at home last week against the Raiders and for a decent team the Broncos have been beaten badly a lot this season.

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts cover
Comment: The Colts injury report is a joke this week but I’ve got to think they will be going after the perfect season. I mean if Tony Dungy were coaching I’d expect the starters to sit the entire game but with Dungy gone I expect them to show some heart and some balls.

Sunday Night’s Game

Dallas (-7) @ Washington
Pick: Cowboys win but Skins beat the spread
Comment: Last week’s performance was a disgrace but I don’t think Washington will play that badly on national TV, at home, against a division rival two weeks in a row. And this is the Cowboys, Wade Phillips, Tony Romo and December we’re talking about.

Monday Night’s Game

Minnesota (-7) @ Chicago
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: The Vikes are starting to crack and this one is going to be played in ugly weather. I’m concerned about that but the Vikings should beat Chicago by at least two TD’s without Favre ever having to throw a pass. The Bears are pathetic.