The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 14 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-11); Straight Up (9-7)
Season: Vs. Spread (90-100-1); Straight Up (125-66)

Week 13 Review: I did not like last week at all. Things didn’t go the way I thought they would, especially in the latter part of the schedule. I was 0-5 ATS from the late Sunday games on and just 1-4 straight up in those games.

Week 14 Preview: Another tough week. Four teams that lost last week are double digit favorites this week. The inconsistent teams are matched up against each other and the good-to-great teams are matched up against each other. This week could be rough.

Thursday’s Game

Pittsburgh (-10) @ Cleveland
Pick: Steelers win but Browns beat the spread
Comment: Clearly things are trending towards the Browns beating the spread in this game. Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight (1-3 ATS) and is just 2-4 on the road this season. During the 4 game losing streak the Steelers have dropped games to the Chiefs and Raiders and they have lost back to back home games. Now the Steelers must go on the road and play after a short week with Big Ben still recovering from the head injury and the questions involving his toughness; with Hines Ward likely out with a hamstring injury; and with Troy Polamalu possibly out for the remainder of the season. The Steelers have only won games by more than 10 points twice this season, though one of those times was in week 6 against the Browns, as they won 27-14 at home, still failing to cover the 14 point spread. So the Steelers are desperate but they were desperate 2 weeks ago.

Then there is Cleveland. The Browns are 1-11 this year (6-6 ATS) and 0-5 at home. They’ve been outscored by 13.7 points a game this season and they’ve lost 7 straight. However, they’ve also covered in their last 3 ball games. In the past two weeks the Browns stayed within 9 points of the Bengals on the road and within 7 points of a red-hot Chargers team. So they ought to be able to stay within 10 against an ice-cold and crumbling Steelers team.

Then again, this is the Steelers-Browns rivalry we’re talking about here. I don’t know that any interdivision rival dominates another more than the Steelers dominate the Browns, particularly this second installment of the Cleveland Browns born in 1999. Including the playoffs, the Browns have now lost 18 of their last 19 games against the Steelers. Cleveland has lost the last 12 straight to the Steelers, including 8 in a row in Cleveland. This year should be as big of a mismatch as ever. The Browns are awful. They just might be the worst team in the NFL. They are poorly coached, they have no weapons, they have a poor and inexperienced QB, and they are banged up across the board. Cleveland is dead last in offensive yards per game and dead last in defensive yards per game. That’s a rarity. They are 30th in points scored and 27th in points allowed. Folks, the Browns average less than 250 yards gained a game and more than 400 yards allowed per game. They average 12.1 points scored and 25.8 points allowed. That’s hideous. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is the defending champion and appeared to have a decent shot at repeating until about a month ago. Pittsburgh’s defense has slipped but they still give up less than 20 points and less than 300 yards a game. They are 9th in scoring defense and 5th in total defense. Offensively they can’t run it like they used to back in the day but they are still 7th in total offense and 14th in scoring. And yet the Steelers’ season appears to be on the brink. The desperately need this one but they’ve had a hard time putting teams away and the Browns have somehow managed to hang around most of the time. Despite being downright terrible, the Browns have only lost by more than 2 scores in 4 of their 12 games this season. I think Pittsburgh will snap the 4 game skid and make it 13 straight over the Browns and 9 straight in Cleveland but I don’t think they’ll win by double digits.

Sunday’s Early Games

New Orleans (-10.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: Things are trending towards the Saints not covering this spread and perhaps even losing a game one of these days. They’ve been fortunate to stay unbeaten this long and perhaps they will fall over the next month or so but it won’t be this week. New Orleans is 8-4 ATS this year and 4-2 ATS on the road but they’re just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. Still, the Saints’ averaging scoring margin is +15.8; a bigger number than the average points scored per game by the Rams, Raiders, and Browns.

The Falcons actually gave the Saints a run for their money in New Orleans back in week 8, falling 35-27 as an 11 point underdog. Atlanta actually out-gained the Saints in that game and it was really the Falcons own mistakes that kept them from winning. This game is in Atlanta, where the Falcons are 5-2 this year, but things are much different now. The Falcons have lost 5 of 7 and it would take a miracle for them to reach the playoffs. They have now allowed as many points as they have scored on the year. The Falcons will likely be without Matt Ryan again on Sunday; there is a very good chance they will also be without Michael Turner again; they have 3 starting offensive linemen hurt; a tight end out; and they may be without Michael Jenkins again. If the offense can’t move the ball, hold onto the ball, and put up points, the Falcons will have no chance of keeping up with the Saints offense. Plus, if the offense isn’t doing anything, the Atlanta defense will be exposed earlier and more often.

These two teams have been rivals since they came into existence. The Saints have had the upper hand recently, winning 6 of the last 7 meetings. The Falcons are just 2-2 in their last 4 against the Saints at the Georgia Dome. This season the Falcons are 5-1 at home but just 2-4 ATS the spread at home. They are 7-5 ATS on the year but just 3-4 ATS in their last 7. I hate to say it but I think the Falcons are going to get hammered pretty hard again this weekend. Hopefully it won’t be as bad as last Sunday but I’ll be surprised if we stay within 2 TD’s.

Detroit (+13) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: I really like Baltimore in this one. Detroit is just 2-10 (3-8-1 ATS) and 0-6 on the road (1-4-1 ATS on the road), being outscored 29.8-17.2 on average (-12.6), and the Lions are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7. This Sunday the Lions will be starting Daunte Culpepper, who is 0-3 as a starter this year (big surprise), and is prone to taking sacks and turning the ball over. The Ravens are 6-6 (6-6 ATS) and 4-2 at home (3-3 ATS) but they are just 3-6 in their last 9 games (3-6 ATS). However, Baltimore is still outscoring opponents by an average of 4.7 points a game and at home they have outscored opponents by an average of 11.0 points per game. The Lions, on the other hand, have been outscored by an average of 17.8 points per game on the road. Baltimore has no room for error and the Lions have nothing to play for. I’ll take the Ravens to win by 21+.

Green Bay (-3) @ Chicago
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: The trend here would have to point towards the Packers covering on the road in this rivalry game. I really felt that Green Bay was a fraud but the Pack is starting to make me question that thinking more and more. The Packers are now 8-4 (7-4-1 ATS) and in great shape to make the playoffs if they keep winning. They have won 4 straight (3-0-1 ATS) and they are 3-2 on the road this year so far, outscoring the opposition by 10.4 points a game on the road. Green Bay handled the Bears at home in the opener, winning 21-15 as a 4.5 point underdog.

That’s actually where part of the problem for my lies. These two teams play each other every year and Green Bay hasn’t won 2 straight against Chicago since 2003. Not only have they failed to sweep a season series from the Bears since then, they haven’t even won the 2nd game one year and then the 1st game the next year. The Pack hasn’t won back to back games against Chicago since 2003, period. The Bears have been a massive disappointment this year, going 5-7 (4-8 ATS), and they are just 2-6 in their last 8 games (1-7 ATS!). However, the Bears are 4-2 at home this year (3-3 ATS), outscoring teams by 5.8 a game at home.

Despite the recent history of the Packers struggling to win both games against Chi-Town, I can’t ignore more recent history of these two teams, which suggests that Green Bay is very solid and Chicago is just above the bottom of the NFL. The Packers know they need to keep winning to stay in front in the NFC playoff chase and the Bears know that they are done for. Green Bay’s offense is explosive, the defense does not break easily, and they are getting healthier as the year goes on while everyone else goes in the opposite direction. The Bears, for instance, could be playing without Devon Hester and with a very limited Jay Cutler. I like Green Bay to win by at least a touchdown.

Seattle (+6) @ Houston
Pick: Texans cover
Comment: Both teams are 5-7, but while the Seahawks are a predictable 1-5 on the road (1-5 ATS), the Texans are an inexplicable 2-4 at home (1-4-1 ATS). Seattle is coming off back to back wins, while the Texans have lost 4 straight (1-3 ATS) to fall way back in the hunt for the playoffs. It now appears highly unlikely that Houston will achieve the winning record that the franchise and its fans had hoped for, and so many people around the game expected. In fact, Houston is going to have to play better over the last month to avoid finishing below .500 for the first time since 2006. Gary Kubiak’s fate has probably already been sealed.

The Texans are banged up and they will not have Steve Slaton for the remainder of the season. Matt Schaub, however, seems to be the real key to whether or not Houston is successful. When Schuab doesn’t play well the Texans are in trouble but they are really better than Seattle in all phases of the game and the Seahawks struggle on the road. Seattle has been outscored by an average of 13 points a game on the road this season. And while Seattle’s record of 5-7 doesn’t look so bad, they haven’t done much other than take care of business against lousy teams or against decent teams at home, where the Seahawks have perhaps the best home field advantage in the NFL today. Seattle has 2 wins over St. Louis; a home win over the Lions; a home win over the Niners; and a home win over the Jags. The only road game they haven’t lost by at least 11 points was a win over the Rams. I think the Texans will snap their skid this week and beat Seattle at home by 8.

Denver (+7) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Broncos beat the spread
Comment: This is a tough one because we still don’t know just how good Denver is. The Broncos won 6 straight, then they lost 4 in a row, now they’ve won back to back games. They are 8-4 (8-4 ATS) and 4-2 on the road (4-2 ATS). Indy just keeps winning like always. The Colts are 12-0 and 8-3-1 ATS. They are 6-0 at home this year, although just 2-3-1 ATS in those games. Indy has outscored opponents by 10.8 points per game this year and they’ve covered in their last 3 ball games. Their last 5 games have come against playoff contending teams and they’ve answered each challenge so far. Denver seems to be back on track now, having whipped the Giants and pulverized the Chiefs over the last 2 weeks.

I think the Broncos are legit but I don’t see them being the team to end the Colts’ run at perfection, especially not at home. I think the Colts could actually be more capable of having an undefeated championship season than ever this year. For some reason I’m convinced that they are better off now and in the future without Tony Dungy. The Broncos really need this game more but they probably don’t want it any more than the Colts players. The safe bet here is probably the Colts to win by less than a TD and that’s what I’m going to go with.

Miami (+3) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jags win but Dolphins beat the spread
Comment: I really don’t know what to make of either of these teams. I’m consistently befuddled by the Dolphins on a weekly basis. I have no clue how they’re doing this. While I still think the Jags are largely a product of their schedule, you still have to win the games even if they may look easy, and they did sweep the Texans.

Miami has been outscored by an average of 6.2 points per game on the road this year, going just 2-4 (3-3 ATS) away from home, but they are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Despite the loss of Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins have won 3 of their last 4. Miami has no margin for error. It must keep winning in order to stay in the hunt for the playoffs.

At 7-5 (5-7 ATS), the Jags are in better position than the Dolphins but they can’t let up. Jacksonville is 5-1 at home this year (just 2-4 ATS), and though the Jags have been outscored by an average of 4.0 points per game this year overall, they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 3.4 points a game at home. They have won 4 of their last 5, though just 6 of their last 8 ATS.

The QB’s are not special in this game and neither are the defenses. Jacksonville has essentially no home field advantage in this matchup. I see this game coming down to the wire and being decided by a fluky play and I’ll take the Jags because they’ve had good fortune so far this season. I like Jacksonville to win by 2.

Buffalo (+1) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chiefs cover
Comment: Oh, gosh what an awful game. The Bills have now lost 4 of their last 5 games, while the Chiefs have lost by 31 and by 29 in their last two games respectively. The Bills are an understandable 2-4 on the road this year (4-2 ATS) but the Chiefs are a surprising 1-5 at home (3-1-2 ATS), having been outscored by an average of 13 points a game at home this year. Arrowhead was once one of the biggest home field advantages in the NFL but it’s really not a factor anymore. It’s hard to feel good about either team in this matchup but I’m going to take the Chiefs because they are at home.

Cincinnati (+6.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings win but Bengals beat the spread
Comment: This probably the toughest game of the week to pick. The Bengals are 9-3 this season but just 6-6 ATS. They are 4-1 on the road (3-2 ATS) but they have failed to cover in each of their last 3 games. Minnesota is 10-2 on the year but just 7-4-1 ATS. The Vikings are 6-0 at home but just 3-3 ATS at home. The Vikings have outscored opponents by an average of 10.5 points per game this year but at home that number is 13.5 points per game. And despite the loss last Sunday night, the Vikes are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5.

The problem for Minnesota is that they are starting to encounter injury problems. Especially worrisome are some issues with the offensive line. Any O-line injuries would obviously make it harder for Adrian Peterson to rack up yardage, and more importantly, it would increase the chances of Brett Favre suffering the injury he is due for. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is actually looking better health wise than it did a few weeks ago.

I don’t think either team will be able to run the ball much at all. It should be a fairly low scoring and close football game. I’ll take Minnesota by a field goal because the Vikes are at home.

Carolina (+13.5) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Panthers beat the spread
Comment: Although most of New England’s problems have come on the road, it’s hard to bet on the Pats right now. Things seem to be less unified or at least less secure within the organization right now than any team in recent memory. Whether it’s questionable coaching decisions, player attitudes, off the field distractions, all of the changes to the roster, or all of these in some way or another, there’s no doubt that the Patriots have lost a step. The Pats are just 5-6-1 ATS this year and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Luckily the Pats are at home this week where they are 6-0 this year (4-2 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 18.2 points per game. New England has lost 3 of its last 4 overall and the Jets and Dolphins are both now just 1 game back in the AFC East standings. The Patriots need to win this week to keep the Jets and Dolphins from getting any ideas about the division title.

The Carolina Panthers could turn out to be just the team for New England to face right now. For one thing, it will be hard for the Panthers to follow the blueprint used by New Orleans and Miami the last 2 weeks and throw the ball 50 times. They are a running team and they’ll just have to try and beat the Patriots with Matt Moore serving as a game manager. Moore isn’t any good but he did beat Tampa last week in his first start of the season and he probably gives the Panthers a better chance of winning than Delhomme at this point. The Panthers are just 5-7 ATS this year and just 2-4 in road games (3-3 ATS on the road). They come into this game banged up but I think they’ll be able to control the ball enough to keep the Pats from putting too big of a beating on them. I like New England to win by 11.

New York Jets (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: I can’t figure out if the Jets are saying that Kellen Clemens is starting at QB this Sunday and if the Jets need help to beat the Bucs Mark Sanchez might come into the game later; or if they’re saying that Sanchez is out and Clemens is the QB. I kind of get the feeling that they think they can win without the rookie QB and they want to save him for the final 3 games. It would be hard to blame the Jets for thinking that way, as Tampa has been horrific in every way this year.

This is a matchup of head coaches who should probably just be assistant coaches. The Jets are in the playoff hunt in the AFC at 6-6 and they need to avoid disaster this Sunday. They are just 2-3 on the road this year but the Bucs are only 1-5 at home. Tampa is 1-11 on the season (4-8 ATS). The Bucs have been outscored by an average of 11.9 points per game this season, yet surprisingly that number increases to -15.5 points per game at home. Injuries have piled up on the Buccaneers.

The Jets may need Sanchez to suck it up because Clemens isn’t any good and the Bucs will give New York a fight. Clemens went 3-5 as a starter in 2007 but he was terrible and he really hasn’t played since then. Either way, I think the Jets will take care of business and win by 4 or so on the road.

Sunday’s Late Games

St. Louis (+13) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Rams beat the spread
Comment: The Titans were cooled off last week by the Colts but they still have a lot to play for. The Rams, on the other hand, do not. At some point the Rams may hold out Stephen Jackson, who has been playing through various ailments over most of the year. But until then he will be just about the only bright spot on the team in St. Louis. Marc Bulger has been out (again) for much of the year and Kyle Boller has struggled in his place, going 0-5 in what amounts to 5 starts. He’s been under constant pressure and has turned it over frequently. The Lams are 1-11 on the year (6-6 ATS), 1-5 on the road (4-2 ATS on the road), and they’ve been outscored by an average of 14.6 points per game. The Rams have scored just 8.8 points a game on the road this season. Still, St. Louis has beaten the spread in its last 3 road games. In fact, the Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

The Titans are now 5-7 (5-7 ATS) and their long winning streak is over. Reality may set in soon but for now the Titans are not out of anything. They must keep winning of course. They’re 3-2 at home this year (2-3 ATS) and they’ve still won 5 of 6 overall, although they’ve failed to cover in their last 2 games. There’s no way the Titans can come all the way they did just to lose to a team like the Rams at home after a stumble in Indy. I like Tennessee to win by 10-12 points.

Washington (-1) @ Oakland
Pick: Redskins cover
Comment: This game is a tough one to call. Oakland has shocked everybody with its wins over the Eagles and Steelers this season. Washington has been competitive over the last month or so but it can’t figure out how to win. The Skins are 3-9 this season (5-6-1 ATS) and 0-6 on the road (but 3-2-1 ATS on the road) but they are a little bit healthier this week and they are playing better lately. Washington has beaten the spread in each of its last 4 games.

The Raiders are now 4-8 on the year (6-6 ATS) and just 2-4 at home (3-3 ATS) but they are clearly capable of playing well and they are much better off without JaMarcus Russell in the game. Oakland has been outscored by 11.7 points a game this year. Over the previous 7 weeks, the Raiders have alternated wins and losses ATS. They are due for a loss. I’ll take the Skins to win by a field goal or so on the road.

San Diego (+3) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Chargers beat the spread
Comment: This should be another great game. The Chargers have been rolling for almost 2 months now, having won 7 straight (5-2 ATS) to get to 9-3 on the year (6-6 ATS). They are a sparkling 5-1 on the road (3-3 ATS) and have outscored the opposition by 10.2 points a game on the road. The Cowboys took a big step back last week with the loss to the Giants and they are facing a rough schedule the rest of the way. Dallas is 5-1 at home this year (4-2 ATS) and has outscored opponents by 11.1 points a game at the new stadium.

The Cowboys are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 and I would be leaning heavily towards the Chargers if not for some injury concerns. Shawn Merriman could be held out again this week and the Chargers are fairly banged up along both the offensive and defensive lines. I’m going to play this one safe and call for Dallas to win by a point at home.

Sunday Night’s Game

Philadelphia (+1) @ New York Giants
Pick: Eagles pull off the upset
Comment: You gotta love Eagles-Giants. Philly has now won 3 straight and the Eagles may be peaking at just the right time. They’re 4-2 on the road this year and they’ve won their last 2 games at Giants Stadium. In week 8 the Eagles crushed the G-Men at home, 40-17, for their 3rd straight win in the series. The Giants got a much needed win over the Cowboys last week but they are still just 2-5 in their last 7 games (1-6 ATS). New York is 5-6-1 ATS and 2-3-1 ATS at home this year. The Eagles are much healthier this week and they may even be getting Brian Westbrook back. I like the Eagles by a TD.

Monday Night’s Game

Arizona (-3.5) @ San Francisco
Pick: Arizona covers
Comment: A tricky one to end the week. The Cards have won 7 of 9 (7-2 ATS), while the Niners have dropped 6 of 8 (3-3-2 ATS). Arizona has been very strong on the road this year, going 5-1 (5-1 ATS) and outscoring opponents by an average of 11.6 points per game on the road. San Fran is just 5-7 on the season (7-3-2) but 4-2 at home. In the season opener the Niners pulled off the upset in Arizona, winning 20-16, but they’ve struggled after getting off to a good start. The Niners need to at least go 8-8 for this season to be a true success and this is a game they can certainly win. However, I think the Cards may want to just put the whole division thing to rest as soon as possible. I like the Cardinals to win on the road by 6.