The College Basketball Blog: 2011 NCAA Tournament Predictions

I normally begin this entry by talking about how we’ve arrived at the greatest time of the year. I talk about how we are about to receive our yearly reward for being sports freaks. I write about how one of the last remaining sporting events not overly molested by the powers that be is about to get underway. Unfortunately, my introduction will strike a less positive tone this year.

But First, an Apology for my Conference Tournament Predictions

Yeah, so I need to apologize to me, myself, and anyone else who reads this blog for my hideous performance predicting the conference tournaments this season. That was just bad. I mean, I never do all that well, and I usually just casually compare my picks with the actual results (“okay got that one…hmmm, missed there…oh I got that early upset right…oh that one was way off…”). But this year I was off the mark in obvious fashion from start to finish. I was basically exactly wrong or the opposite of right in a third of the tournaments. It was painful.

Foggy Cobwebs of Haze and…um…uh…Okay, Wait, What Actually Happened?

Every year is the same. College basketball begins to take on a bigger role in my sports life (that’s probably redundant) during the second half of conference play. I’m basically locked in during the final two weeks of conference play. During “Championship Week” I’m focusing almost completely on CBB and soaking up as much of the excitement as possible. All of this energy builds until finally “Selection Sunday” arrives. Once the brackets are announced and the snub/seed controversies are dealt with, it’s time to start reveling in the process of creating the future (and this time it could be 100% correct!). The first noontime game on Thursday begins the best 4-day stretch in the sporting calendar. This year was progressing like every other year. But for me it all changed on Friday afternoon.

A number of different things went into my Friday afternoon meltdown, but the main foundation was this: if the Dawgs beat Alabama in the 2^nd round of the SEC Tournament they were almost certainly (not certainly but almost) going to the NCAA Tournament; if they lost to Alabama they were almost certainly (not certainly but almost) not going to the NCAA Tournament. If they went out and lost in a fashion similar to the final regular season game I would have been extremely disappointed, but I still would have been focused in on the rest of the CBB action the during the weekend. I would have been paying attention to the rest of the tournaments, rooting against potential bid stealers, and focusing on the small chance that the Dawgs could still get in. Of course, if the Dawgs won, it would put a nice big check mark on the season, it would continue our run in the conference tournament another day, and it would give me a sense of security that the Dawgs were going to be part of the field of 64 (er, 68).

What happened was that for 2-hours the game played out in close to “best case scenario” fashion. And then the Dawgs collapsed, just as they have done consistently throughout Mark Fox’s 2 years in Athens. They stopped scoring. The kept turning the ball over. They started missing foul shots. They let the other team come back and tie it and then they couldn’t make any plays or breaks to save themselves. Worst of all, a miracle game-winner was negated by a strange timeout called by the head coach. Once again the collapse had occurred in front of UGA faithful.

Making things much harder to take was the fact that I had to follow all the action on the radio from work. Listening to a meltdown or collapse is often worse than actually seeing it. The feeling of helplessness is somehow stronger. And you’re much more unprepared. During the collapse, during the final moments when the meltdown was complete, and during the aftermath, I was stuck at work. I wasn’t able to scream or hit anything or drink or go try and find some other way to release. And the day wasn’t almost over. I had basically 2 more hours to go. And now my weekend was ruined.

I must admit that I cried a little bit during the first 30 minutes after the game. Then on my way home from work I made the mistake of listening to music on my headphones. I listened to instrumental music that always makes me emotional and when I got inside my apartment and closed the door I just wept. I cried for a few moments and tried to get on with the weekend. I was basically stable the rest of the weekend, but the lack of energy I always have on weekends, the isolation, the beer, and the food combined into a wall of depression and sleep. It didn’t help that our collapse became a part of the national coverage due to the unfortunate timeout that was called. I watched some of the games on Friday night, Saturday during the day, and early on Sunday, but mostly I just slept and ignored the phone. I knew that the Dawgs hadn’t been “officially” knocked off the bubble, but I decided that if they got a surprise bid I would just let someone else tell me.

Over the last few years, the analysts had gotten so good at predicting who would get in and who would be left out, I’d really started shunning the selection shows and waiting for the whole thing to be released. There was no reason to sit through the commercials, the teases, and the analysis we didn’t want or need from the CBS crew when the answers to the questions were always exactly what we all knew they’d be. The only controversies over the last few years had been about seeding. This not only made it easier for me to skip the selection shows this time, it also made me much less hopeful that the Dawgs would be in. Everyone said the Dawgs were one of the last teams out and “surprise” teams—especially from the power conferences—had become a thing of the past. Plus, we had it all but secured our bid and then had fallen off the bubble, so there was no motivational pull to give me an irrational sense of hope.

I rolled around in bed through the selection shows. I stayed rolling around in bed through phone calls and instant messages. I got the 15^th instant message of the day and noticed that it was from my Mom (who always freaks out when I hibernate and ignore the outside world for a few days). I absent mindedly gave it a look: “Are you happy about UGA?” I figured we must have somehow made it after all, but I had to make sure before I jumped to conclusions. I found the bracket online and scanned for our name. I looked at the play-in games and I looked at the double-digit seeds. I could not find us. Finally I hit AJC.com and saw that we had indeed gotten in. I went back to try and find our name on the bracket again. #10 seed??? What the hell? How did that happen?

While there was a sense of relief and excitement, the overwhelming feeling at that moment and really for the next 24 hours was of a lack of understanding of what the hell had happened—not just with the Dawgs getting in, but with the other surprise teams, the teams that got left out, the seeding arrangements, and the scheduling. And then there was the issue of going over all of the conference tournament results and figuring out how they had affected things.

My biggest frustration was that by the time I really started focusing in again, everyone else was trying to force themselves to move away from the seedings, the surprises, and the snubs, and onto the matchups, the sleepers, the potential giant killers, the final four predictions, etc. I was never able to see the original reactions of the ESPN experts. I only got bits and pieces of key analysts’ reactions. How was Colorado out? How was VCU in? Where the hell did Penn State come from? And I didn’t realize St. Mary’s was even a question.

What Have They Done to the Earth? What Have They Done to Our Fair Sister?

Searching for answers amidst all the confusion only led me to more troubling questions. I’d never really thought that much about the “Tournament Selection Committee” before. I knew they were suits to some extent. I questioned at times whether they had agendas and whether or not they really told us the truth. At times, I like everyone else, wondered if they got the teams and the seedings correct. But I never really questioned (seriously at least) whether or not they strove to construct a fair, legit field with the main objective being to determine the National Champion.

For me personally, things have changed. College basketball has taken several big steps towards college football. What I mean by that is that college football strives to create a profitable postseason that culminates in a “good” National Championship matchup. Look at what has happened in recent years in college basketball. We’ve added 3 more slots to the bracket, two of which—the 11 and 12 seeds—figure to change the tournament at least somewhat. The most common upsets come from the #6 vs. #11 and #5 vs. #12 games. Now, one of the #11 seeds and one of the #12 seeds will be going into their games against higher seeds after playing an elimination game 48 hours earlier. So much emphasis has been put on placing teams in favorable locations. The reasons? Better attendance, less money spent on travel, higher chances of top seeded teams having the crowd advantage, etc. With the addition of the four play-in games, there are even more hoops to jump through based on travel and time. Then you add in all of the rules regarding conferences (not to mention BYU’s ridiculous stance against playing on Sunday).

I have to wonder if the committee totally screwed the pooch this year and included a few teams from way off the board, while excluding a few teams who seemed to be safely within the field…or did things like travel, logistics, locations, ratings, politics, and general fat cat in a top hat slap your crony on the back shenanigans influence the committee into making these seemingly inexplicable decisions?

We Finally Really Did it. You Maniacs! You Blew it Up! Ah, Damn You! God Damn You All to Hell!

I believe we’re getting closer and closer to the thing that we all emotionally never believed could happen, but intellectually knew was inevitable. They have fucked this thing up. What made the NCAA Tournament? What made March Madness? Was it Larry and Magic; Michael; Hoya Paranoia; Jimmy V looking for somebody to hug; Villanova pulling an April Fool’s; Duke over UNLV; Duke over Kentucky; Valpo; and George Mason? Sure, it was all of those things. But what really made the Big Dance a household name was the brackets. The fucking brackets, idiots. You don’t fuck around with the brackets. But what have they done? They have fucked this thing up.

The tournament field is now not even set until around 12 hours prior to the start of play on Thursday. When there was just one “play-in game” between the two worst #16 seeds, nobody cared that we didn’t know on Tuesday morning who Duke was going to play on Friday. But now we aren’t going to know whether Georgetown is going to play USC or VCU until around midnight on Wednesday. Nobody wants to turn their bracket in without knowing who the #12 and #11 seeds are. So we’ll wait until Thursday morning I suppose.

But the brackets are about including everybody (in your office or family or cult) into the pool. The girl from tech support is not waiting ‘til Thursday morning. And worst of all, nobody’s including the play-in games in their bracket competitions because it would slash the number of entries by a million percent if they had to be turned in by Tuesday at 6:00. And let me state to all that can hear me…and especially to you, Mr. Tournament Selection Committee Guy…if you aren’t in the brackets, you aren’t in the mother fucKING TOURNAMENT!!!

And guess what, friends and neighbors? I now have to cut this rant short and get on with my predictions, because the first play-in game is about to start, and I’m not going to do this thing half-assed. If 68 teams are announced on Selection Sunday, then by Thunder I’m going to predict the fate of all 68 teams.

And where are the fruits we were promised?

2011 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Play-in Games

#11 USC over #11 VCU

#12 Clemson over #12 UAB

#16 UT-San Antonio over #16 Alabama State

#16 UNC-Ashville over #16 Arkansas-Little Rock

East

First Round

#1 Ohio State over #16 UT-San Antonio

#2 North Carolina over #15 Long Island

#3 Syracuse over #14 Indiana State

#4 Kentucky over #13 Princeton

#5 West Virginia over #12 Clemson

#6 Xavier over #11 Marquette

#10 Georgia over #7 Washington

#8 George Mason over #9 Villanova

Second Round

#1 Ohio State over #8 George Mason

#2 North Carolina over #10 Georgia

#6 Xavier over #3 Syracuse

#4 Kentucky over #5 West Virginia

Regional Semifinals

#1 Ohio State over #4 Kentucky

#2 North Carolina over #6 Xavier

Regional Final

#1 Ohio State over #2 North Carolina

West

First Round

#1 Duke over #16 Hampton

#2 San Diego State over #15 Northern Colorado

#3 Connecticut over #14 Bucknell

#4 Texas over #13 Oakland

#12 Memphis over #5 Arizona

#11 Missouri over #6 Cincinnati

#7 Temple over #10 Penn State

#8 Michigan over #9 Tennessee

Second Round

#1 Duke over #8 Michigan

#2 San Diego State over #7 Temple

#3 Connecticut over #11 Missouri

#4 Texas over #12 Memphis

Regional Semifinals

#4 Texas over #1 Duke

#2 San Diego State over #3 Connecticut

Regional Final

#2 San Diego State over #4 Texas

Southwest

First Round

#1 Kansas over #16 Boston University

#2 Notre Dame over #15 Akron

#3 Purdue over #14 St. Peter’s

#4 Louisville over #13 Morehead State

#12 Richmond over #5 Vanderbilt

#11 USC over #6 Georgetown

#10 Florida State over #7 Texas A&M

#8 UNLV over #9 Illinois

Second Round

#1 Kansas over #8 UNLV

#2 Notre Dame over #10 Florida State

#3 Purdue over #11 USC

#4 Louisville over #12 Richmond

Regional Semifinals

#1 Kansas over #4 Louisville

#2 Notre Dame over #3 Purdue

Regional Final

#1 Kansas over #2 Notre Dame

Southeast

First Round

#1 Pittsburgh over #16 UNC-Ashville

#2 Florida over #15 UC-Santa Barbara

#3 BYU over #14 Wofford

#13 Belmont over #4 Wisconsin

#5 Kansas State over #12 Utah State

#11 Gonzaga over #6 St. John’s

#7 UCLA over #10 Michigan State

#9 Old Dominion over #8 Butler

Second Round

#1 Pittsburgh over #9 Old Dominion

#2 Florida over #7 UCLA

#3 BYU over #11 Gonzaga

#5 Kansas State over #13 Belmont

Regional Semifinals

#1 Pittsburgh over #5 Kansas State

#2 Florida over #3 BYU

Regional Final

#1 Pittsburgh over #2 Florida

National Semifinals

#1 Ohio State over #2 San Diego State

#1 Kansas over #1 Pittsburgh

National Championship

#1 Ohio State over #1 Kansas

The College Basketball Blog: 2011 Superfluous Postseason Tournament Predictions

The changes to the “Big Dance” this season have made it even more confusing and difficult for me to get my picks in for the “Little Dances” which no one cares about. Without further ado…

2011 CollegeInsider.com Tournament (CIT) Predictions

Note: If you’re surprised that this thing is back for a 3^rd edition, you may not be alone, but you should probably get used to it. Not only is the CIT back in 2011, it’s BIGGER than ever. Yes, the CIT actually EXPANDED by 8 teams this season. The field in now 24 teams (too?) large. This is the mid-major tournament. I mean the NIT and CBI have plenty of mid-majorish types as well, but the CIT is just about exclusively mid and low majors. The CIT and CBI compete against each other for the non-NCAA Tournament teams that aren’t invited to the NIT either. This year, the winner of the Great West Conference Tournament—it happened to be North Dakota—received an automatic bid to the CIT (sweet!!!). Remember that this tournament doesn’t have a bracket—teams are reseeded after the first round—making it difficult to predict. It’s fairly hard to know how teams will be ranked because location and/or arena availability are taken into account.

This season it gets both more and less complicated. There are now 24 teams in the field and 12 first round games. After the first round is completed, the remaining 12 teams will be seeded, with the top 4 seeds receiving byes into the quarterfinals. Obviously this makes correctly predicting the top 4 seeds important. However, I actually prefer this setup to the previous one which called for total reseeding after each and every round. At least this way we have a bracket to work with after round one. Each and every game in the tournament is played at the home site of one of the teams. Not surprisingly, home teams dominated the action in the first two years, going 12-3 in 2009 and 10-5 in 2010. This is the mid-major tournament, and so far it has been dominated by teams from what many would consider the best “true” mid/low-major conferences: the CAA and the MVC. In 2009, Old Dominion beat fellow CAA team James Madison at home in the semifinals, and then went on the road to beat Bradley of the MVC for the title. Last year Missouri State beat fellow MVC team Creighton at home in the semifinals, and then won at home against Pacific for the title. Pacific (not in this year’s field) lost in the semifinals in 2009 and in the finals in 2010. One final note: this tournament actually began Monday evening (yeah, not many of the teams on this list were sweating out Selection Sunday) with Buffalo playing at Quinnipiac and pulling the upset. I actually probably would have picked Quinnipiac, but since I know what happened, and it would just add to the confusion to pretend otherwise, I’m going to pick Buffalo.

First Round

Buffalo over Quinnipiac

Marshall over Ohio

East Tennessee State over Furman

East Carolina over Jacksonville

Northern Iowa over Rider

Air Force over North Dakota

Santa Clara over Northern Arizona

Hawaii over Portland

Western Michigan over Tennessee Tech

Valparaiso over Iona

SMU over Oral Roberts

San Francisco over Idaho

Second Round

#5 Air Force over #12 SMU

#6 Northern Iowa over #11 Western Michigan

#7 San Francisco over #10 Hawaii

#9 Santa Clara over #8 Buffalo

Quarterfinals

#1 Marshall over #9 Santa Clara

#2 Valparaiso over #7 San Francisco

#3 East Tennessee State over #6 Northern Iowa

#4 East Carolina over #5 Air Force

Semifinals

#1 Marshall over #4 East Carolina

#2 Valparaiso over #3 East Tennessee State

Championship

#1 Marshall over #2 Valparaiso

2011 College Basketball Invitational (CBI) Predictions

Note: This was the original “nuther” postseason college basketball tournament. The CBI is now in its 4^th year. It is a 16-team field, made up of teams that received neither an NCAA Tournament nor NIT invitation. All games are played at the home site of one of the teams, so again, location and availability often trumps records and rankings when determining the seeds and matchups. The good thing about the CBI is that there actually is something like a bracket from the very start, although the teams are reseeded before the semifinals. The CBI’s “trademark” if you will, is the “best 2-out-of-3” format of the championship, with the higher seeded team getting the benefit of home court advantage in a potential winner-take-all game 3.

The CBI has also differed from the CIT in a couple of other notable ways. For whatever reason, Home teams have not done nearly as well in this tournament. Home teams were 9-8 in 2008, 10-7 in 2009, and just 7-9 last year. In addition, unlike the CIT, the CBI is not totally devoid of high-major or even BCS conference teams. Teams from the high major conferences have done well, as you would expect, but the high quality mid/low-major conferences have also done well. In 2008, Tulsa beat fellow C-USA team Houston at home in the semifinals, and then won 2 of 3 over Bradley of the MVC to take the title, winning at home in games 1 and 3. In 2009, Oregon State was invited and made one of the four #1 seeds despite a 13-17 record (presumably due to location/availability reasons). The Beavers beat fellow Pac-10 team Stanford at home in the semifinals, and then won 2 of 3 over UTEP of the C-USA to win the title, taking games 1 and 3 at home. Last year, VCU of the CAA changed the script, winning 3 road games to reach the finals, where they swept St. Louis of the A-10, winning game 1 on the road and game 2 at home to take the title. One final note: I’m guessing as to the names of each section of the bracket.

Opening Round

South

#4 James Madison over #1 Davidson

#2 Creighton over #3 San Jose State

West

#1 Montana over #4 Duquesne

#2 Oregon over #3 Weber State

Midwest

#1 Boise State over #4 Austin Peay

#2 Evansville over #3 Hofstra

East

#1 Rhode Island over #4 Miami (Ohio)

#2 Central Florida over #3 St. Bonaventure

Regional Finals

South

#2 Creighton over #4 James Madison

West

#1 Montana over #2 Oregon

Midwest

#1 Boise State over #2 Evansville

East

#1 Rhode Island over #2 Central Florida

Semifinals

#1 Rhode Island over #4 Creighton

#2 Montana over #3 Boise State

Championship

#1 Rhode Island over #2 Montana, 2-1

2011 National Invitation Tournament (NIT) Predictions

Note: Wow! Coming after the CIT and the CBI, the NIT looks a lot more like the “sexy brunette” (as opposed to the “hot blonde”) than the ugly stepsister that it is usually portrayed as these days. The complete NIT history is too long to retell here. Suffice to say that its current format is a 32-team bracket that plays just like the NCAA Tournament, except that all games are played at home sites until the semifinals and finals, when the scene shifts to Madison Square Garden. The NIT gets first dibs on teams left out of the Big Dance, so the field is chalked full of BCS conference and high major teams, as well as the best mid and low major teams that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. Any regular season conference winner that loses in its conference tournament receives an automatic bid to the NIT (unless that team gets an at-large bid to the Big Dance). Of the “Little Dances,” the NIT is the tournament least likely to be turned down by disgruntled or disinterested high majors. One final note: due to scheduling issues, #1 Boston College and #3 Dayton will play on the road in round 1. One finaller note: I’m making up the names of the different sections of the bracket.

First Round

South

#1 Alabama over #8 Coastal Carolina

#2 Miami over #7 Florida Atlantic

#3 Missouri State over #6 Murray State

#4 New Mexico over #5 UTEP

West

#1 Colorado over #8 Texas Southern

#2 St. Mary’s over #7 Kent State

#3 Colorado State over #6 Fairfield

#5 Mississippi over #4 California

East

#1 Boston College over #8 McNeese State

#2 Washington State over #7 Long Beach State

#3 Oklahoma State over #6 Harvard

#4 Northwestern over #5 UW-Milwaukee

Midwest

#1 Virginia Tech over #8 Bethune-Cookman

#2 Cleveland State over #7 Vermont

#6 College of Charleston over #3 Dayton

#4 Wichita State over #5 Nebraska

Second Round

South

#1 Alabama over #4 New Mexico

#3 Missouri State over #2 Miami

West

#1 Colorado over #5 Mississippi

#2 St. Mary’s over #3 Colorado State

East

#1 Boston College over #4 Northwestern

#2 Washington State over #3 Oklahoma State

Midwest

#4 Wichita State over #1 Virginia Tech

#2 Cleveland State over #6 College of Charleston

Regional Finals

South

#1 Alabama over #3 Missouri State

West

#1 Colorado over #2 St. Mary’s

East

#1 Boston College over 2 Washington State

Midwest

#2 Cleveland State over #4 Wichita State

Semifinals

#1 Colorado over #1 Alabama

#1 Boston College over #2 Cleveland State

Championship

#1 Colorado over #1 Boston College

The Bulldawg Blog: Heading into the SEC Tournament

Work Still to Be Done

The regular season is over and it’s come down to this for the Georgia Bulldogs: sweep the Alabama schools in the SEC Tournament, or fail. If the Dawgs fall short of the NCAA Tournament this season there will be no denying that they have utterly underachieved. It would be a bitter disappointment if Trey Tompkins and Travis Leslie enter the NBA Draft next year without taking the Dawgs to the Dance.

This season has been full of missed opportunities, and yet the Dawgs have done a lot right. They finished with a winning record in the SEC. They won 20 games. They beat Kentucky, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech. Their NCAA Tournament hopes have been tenuous really ever since the end of January when they couldn’t take care of business against the Vols and Florida at home, losing a pair of heartbreakers over a 7-day period.

When the smoke momentarily cleared Sunday night following a loss at Bama in the season finale, the Dawgs were suddenly on the wrong side of that annoying fat-faced guy’s “last 4 in/out” list. Even worse, they were blocked by another team from the conference. In fact, they were blocked by the team that they lost to in their final regular season game, and whom they will have to face again in the second round of the SEC Tournament (if they can first get by Auburn). Annoyingly, the Dawgs can seemingly gain nothing from winning their first round game against the Tigers, other than the opportunity to then face Alabama.

If the Dawgs do get by Auburn—which won’t be easy—an even more annoying situation awaits them on Friday. If the Dawgs beat the Tide and then lose to Kentucky in the semifinals, all they will really have done is eliminate Alabama and put themselves in position to perhaps get an NCAA bid, as long as there are few surprises in the various conference tournaments. However, if the Dawgs lose to Alabama, it would appear that they would essentially be off the table in terms of even being considered for an at-large bid.

This is most annoying, because when you take into account all of the things that the “committee” claims to look for when choosing which teams to pick for the tournament, Georgia and Alabama are not all that close. They want teams to play a difficult schedule. The Dawgs did that (strength of schedule: 33^rd); Bama didn’t (strength of schedule (147^th). They want to know who you’ve beaten. Both teams won against Kentucky and at Tennessee, but the Dawgs have the lone solid out of conference win between the two (vs. UAB, RPI: 28). They want to know who you’ve lost to. The Dawgs’ worst loss is actually on the road to Alabama (RPI: 81). Meanwhile, the Tide has lost to several teams in the upper reaches of the RPI: Seton Hall (RPI: 90), Iowa (RPI: 165), Providence (RPI: 146), and St. Peter’s (RPI: 104). And yet, if the Dawgs are 0-2 against the Tide, and the “selection committee” decides to take one or the other as the final SEC team, you would have to assume that it will be Bama getting the nod.

Matchup with Auburn

In order to setup the possible “play-in” game with Alabama, the Dawgs will have to get past Auburn on Thursday. This will be a trickier matchup than people who don’t follow the SEC might expect. To begin with, it’s the first game of the tournament this year, 1:00 PM on Thursday. I realize that when your season is on the line you shouldn’t be worrying about time and place, but the reality is that it’s just a weird setting. The setup at the Dome takes some getting used to and the atmosphere is going to be sleepy. Look, the attendance and atmosphere at Stegeman has been better this season than it has been at any point since the last Harrick season, but it’s 1:00 PM on a Thursday. No matter how fired up the fan base is, there just aren’t going to be that many Dawg people there. The Dawgs will have to be careful not to get lulled to sleep by the atmosphere and keep their intensity.

Looking at the records you might expect a mismatch. The Dawgs are 9-7 in the SEC and 20-10 overall, while the Tigers are 4-12 in the conference and just 11-19 overall. But the gap isn’t nearly as big as the records indicate. It has rarely been easy for Georgia this season. 9 of UGA’s 20 wins this season have come by 4 points or less (or in overtime). And the Tigers finished the regular season strong; or at least, they finished the regular season playing much better than they were early on. They went just 7-7 in non-conference play and then lost their first 6 SEC games. However, they are 4-6 in their last 10, with an overtime loss at Georgia, a 2-point loss at Bama, and a 2-point loss to Arkansas among their 6 losses. They could have easily won 7 of their last 10 SEC games.

And then there is that aforementioned game in Athens back on February 5^th. The Dawgs were never able to pull away from Auburn that day. The Tigers stole an inbounds pass in the closing seconds and tied it up, sending the game to OT. The Dawgs put Auburn away in the overtime session, eventually winning 81-72. However, Auburn had no trouble at all scoring on the Dawgs in that first meeting, and this time the game will be played in a neutral setting.

In the first meeting the Dawgs had a major edge inside, out-rebounding the Tigers 40-28, getting numerous shots from close to the basket, and forcing the Tigers to give up a lot of fouls. With the help of dunks and layups, the Dawgs shot 49%. They shot 37 free throws, but they missed 12, and they will have to do a better job in that area. Fortunately, Auburn went just 5 for 14 on free throws, but the Tigers stayed in the game by going 9 of 18 from behind the 3-point line. The Tigers also forced 17 turnovers while only committing 9.

The guy that killed the Dawgs in the first meeting was sophomore guard Earnest Ross, who went off for 30 points, hitting 5 of 7 from beyond the arc, also recording 7 boards, an assist, and 3 steals. Ross is Auburn’s leading scorer and rebounder this season. The Dawgs were carried by senior forward Jeremy Price—easily the most improved player on the UGA squad this season—who scored 22 points, grabbed 14 rebounds, and blocked 4 shots, converting 10 of 13 from the free-throw line.

The Potential Rematch with Bama

If the Dawgs beat Auburn it will set up a rematch with Bama on Friday, with Georgia again playing the first game of the day. Bama has a 20-10 overall record to match UGA and they have an impressive looking 12-4 record in conference play. However, the Tide went 8-2 against the weak SEC West. The Tide beat the Dawgs last Saturday, but that game was at Coleman Coliseum where Bama was 16-0 this season. The Dawgs jumped out to a 7-0 lead, and led 13-5 after about 4 and a half minutes of play, but Bama then went on a 22-8 run to take a 27-21 lead into halftime. The Dawgs were much better offensively in the second half, but the Tide was basically in control the rest of the way. It was 60-49 with just less than 3 minutes remaining. The Dawgs made a late charge to cut the deficit to 5 with a half minute to go, but Bama hung on to win 65-57.

What is worrisome about the loss to Bama is that the Dawgs outshot the Tide, hit 4 of 8 3-pointers, and went 15 for 17 at the line, yet still lost fairly handedly. Bama’s zone shutoff the taps for the Dawgs offensively for long stretches and forced the Dawgs into 16 turnovers. The Tide also grabbed 14 offensive rebounds and the Dawgs will have to do a better job in that area.

If Georgia meets Bama again in the SEC Tournament it will be imperative that Gerald Robinson stays out of foul trouble. They’ll also need to get much more out of Jeremy Price. Despite the fact that Chris Hines was essentially nullified due to foul trouble, Bama was fairly dominant inside, with forwards JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell combining for 32 points, 20 rebounds, an assist, 3 steals, and 3 blocks. The Dawgs also need to stay up on Charvez Davis, who burned them for 5 trays on 10 attempts.