I normally begin this entry by talking about how we’ve arrived at the greatest time of the year. I talk about how we are about to receive our yearly reward for being sports freaks. I write about how one of the last remaining sporting events not overly molested by the powers that be is about to get underway. Unfortunately, my introduction will strike a less positive tone this year.
But First, an Apology for my Conference Tournament Predictions
Yeah, so I need to apologize to me, myself, and anyone else who reads this blog for my hideous performance predicting the conference tournaments this season. That was just bad. I mean, I never do all that well, and I usually just casually compare my picks with the actual results (“okay got that one…hmmm, missed there…oh I got that early upset right…oh that one was way off…”). But this year I was off the mark in obvious fashion from start to finish. I was basically exactly wrong or the opposite of right in a third of the tournaments. It was painful.
Foggy Cobwebs of Haze and…um…uh…Okay, Wait, What Actually Happened?
Every year is the same. College basketball begins to take on a bigger role in my sports life (that’s probably redundant) during the second half of conference play. I’m basically locked in during the final two weeks of conference play. During “Championship Week” I’m focusing almost completely on CBB and soaking up as much of the excitement as possible. All of this energy builds until finally “Selection Sunday” arrives. Once the brackets are announced and the snub/seed controversies are dealt with, it’s time to start reveling in the process of creating the future (and this time it could be 100% correct!). The first noontime game on Thursday begins the best 4-day stretch in the sporting calendar. This year was progressing like every other year. But for me it all changed on Friday afternoon.
A number of different things went into my Friday afternoon meltdown, but the main foundation was this: if the Dawgs beat Alabama in the 2nd round of the SEC Tournament they were almost certainly (not certainly but almost) going to the NCAA Tournament; if they lost to Alabama they were almost certainly (not certainly but almost) not going to the NCAA Tournament. If they went out and lost in a fashion similar to the final regular season game I would have been extremely disappointed, but I still would have been focused in on the rest of the CBB action the during the weekend. I would have been paying attention to the rest of the tournaments, rooting against potential bid stealers, and focusing on the small chance that the Dawgs could still get in. Of course, if the Dawgs won, it would put a nice big check mark on the season, it would continue our run in the conference tournament another day, and it would give me a sense of security that the Dawgs were going to be part of the field of 64 (er, 68).
What happened was that for 2-hours the game played out in close to “best case scenario” fashion. And then the Dawgs collapsed, just as they have done consistently throughout Mark Fox’s 2 years in Athens. They stopped scoring. The kept turning the ball over. They started missing foul shots. They let the other team come back and tie it and then they couldn’t make any plays or breaks to save themselves. Worst of all, a miracle game-winner was negated by a strange timeout called by the head coach. Once again the collapse had occurred in front of UGA faithful.
Making things much harder to take was the fact that I had to follow all the action on the radio from work. Listening to a meltdown or collapse is often worse than actually seeing it. The feeling of helplessness is somehow stronger. And you’re much more unprepared. During the collapse, during the final moments when the meltdown was complete, and during the aftermath, I was stuck at work. I wasn’t able to scream or hit anything or drink or go try and find some other way to release. And the day wasn’t almost over. I had basically 2 more hours to go. And now my weekend was ruined.
I must admit that I cried a little bit during the first 30 minutes after the game. Then on my way home from work I made the mistake of listening to music on my headphones. I listened to instrumental music that always makes me emotional and when I got inside my apartment and closed the door I just wept. I cried for a few moments and tried to get on with the weekend. I was basically stable the rest of the weekend, but the lack of energy I always have on weekends, the isolation, the beer, and the food combined into a wall of depression and sleep. It didn’t help that our collapse became a part of the national coverage due to the unfortunate timeout that was called. I watched some of the games on Friday night, Saturday during the day, and early on Sunday, but mostly I just slept and ignored the phone. I knew that the Dawgs hadn’t been “officially” knocked off the bubble, but I decided that if they got a surprise bid I would just let someone else tell me.
Over the last few years, the analysts had gotten so good at predicting who would get in and who would be left out, I’d really started shunning the selection shows and waiting for the whole thing to be released. There was no reason to sit through the commercials, the teases, and the analysis we didn’t want or need from the CBS crew when the answers to the questions were always exactly what we all knew they’d be. The only controversies over the last few years had been about seeding. This not only made it easier for me to skip the selection shows this time, it also made me much less hopeful that the Dawgs would be in. Everyone said the Dawgs were one of the last teams out and “surprise” teams—especially from the power conferences—had become a thing of the past. Plus, we had it all but secured our bid and then had fallen off the bubble, so there was no motivational pull to give me an irrational sense of hope.
I rolled around in bed through the selection shows. I stayed rolling around in bed through phone calls and instant messages. I got the 15th instant message of the day and noticed that it was from my Mom (who always freaks out when I hibernate and ignore the outside world for a few days). I absent mindedly gave it a look: “Are you happy about UGA?” I figured we must have somehow made it after all, but I had to make sure before I jumped to conclusions. I found the bracket online and scanned for our name. I looked at the play-in games and I looked at the double-digit seeds. I could not find us. Finally I hit AJC.com and saw that we had indeed gotten in. I went back to try and find our name on the bracket again. #10 seed??? What the hell? How did that happen?
While there was a sense of relief and excitement, the overwhelming feeling at that moment and really for the next 24 hours was of a lack of understanding of what the hell had happened—not just with the Dawgs getting in, but with the other surprise teams, the teams that got left out, the seeding arrangements, and the scheduling. And then there was the issue of going over all of the conference tournament results and figuring out how they had affected things.
My biggest frustration was that by the time I really started focusing in again, everyone else was trying to force themselves to move away from the seedings, the surprises, and the snubs, and onto the matchups, the sleepers, the potential giant killers, the final four predictions, etc. I was never able to see the original reactions of the ESPN experts. I only got bits and pieces of key analysts’ reactions. How was Colorado out? How was VCU in? Where the hell did Penn State come from? And I didn’t realize St. Mary’s was even a question.
What Have They Done to the Earth? What Have They Done to Our Fair Sister?
Searching for answers amidst all the confusion only led me to more troubling questions. I’d never really thought that much about the “Tournament Selection Committee” before. I knew they were suits to some extent. I questioned at times whether they had agendas and whether or not they really told us the truth. At times, I like everyone else, wondered if they got the teams and the seedings correct. But I never really questioned (seriously at least) whether or not they strove to construct a fair, legit field with the main objective being to determine the National Champion.
For me personally, things have changed. College basketball has taken several big steps towards college football. What I mean by that is that college football strives to create a profitable postseason that culminates in a “good” National Championship matchup. Look at what has happened in recent years in college basketball. We’ve added 3 more slots to the bracket, two of which—the 11 and 12 seeds—figure to change the tournament at least somewhat. The most common upsets come from the #6 vs. #11 and #5 vs. #12 games. Now, one of the #11 seeds and one of the #12 seeds will be going into their games against higher seeds after playing an elimination game 48 hours earlier. So much emphasis has been put on placing teams in favorable locations. The reasons? Better attendance, less money spent on travel, higher chances of top seeded teams having the crowd advantage, etc. With the addition of the four play-in games, there are even more hoops to jump through based on travel and time. Then you add in all of the rules regarding conferences (not to mention BYU’s ridiculous stance against playing on Sunday).
I have to wonder if the committee totally screwed the pooch this year and included a few teams from way off the board, while excluding a few teams who seemed to be safely within the field…or did things like travel, logistics, locations, ratings, politics, and general fat cat in a top hat slap your crony on the back shenanigans influence the committee into making these seemingly inexplicable decisions?
We Finally Really Did it. You Maniacs! You Blew it Up! Ah, Damn You! God Damn You All to Hell!
I believe we’re getting closer and closer to the thing that we all emotionally never believed could happen, but intellectually knew was inevitable. They have fucked this thing up. What made the NCAA Tournament? What made March Madness? Was it Larry and Magic; Michael; Hoya Paranoia; Jimmy V looking for somebody to hug; Villanova pulling an April Fool’s; Duke over UNLV; Duke over Kentucky; Valpo; and George Mason? Sure, it was all of those things. But what really made the Big Dance a household name was the brackets. The fucking brackets, idiots. You don’t fuck around with the brackets. But what have they done? They have fucked this thing up.
The tournament field is now not even set until around 12 hours prior to the start of play on Thursday. When there was just one “play-in game” between the two worst #16 seeds, nobody cared that we didn’t know on Tuesday morning who Duke was going to play on Friday. But now we aren’t going to know whether Georgetown is going to play USC or VCU until around midnight on Wednesday. Nobody wants to turn their bracket in without knowing who the #12 and #11 seeds are. So we’ll wait until Thursday morning I suppose.
But the brackets are about including everybody (in your office or family or cult) into the pool. The girl from tech support is not waiting ‘til Thursday morning. And worst of all, nobody’s including the play-in games in their bracket competitions because it would slash the number of entries by a million percent if they had to be turned in by Tuesday at 6:00. And let me state to all that can hear me…and especially to you, Mr. Tournament Selection Committee Guy…if you aren’t in the brackets, you aren’t in the mother fucKING TOURNAMENT!!!
And guess what, friends and neighbors? I now have to cut this rant short and get on with my predictions, because the first play-in game is about to start, and I’m not going to do this thing half-assed. If 68 teams are announced on Selection Sunday, then by Thunder I’m going to predict the fate of all 68 teams.
And where are the fruits we were promised?
2011 NCAA Tournament Predictions
Play-in Games
#11 USC over #11 VCU
#12 Clemson over #12 UAB
#16 UT-San Antonio over #16 Alabama State
#16 UNC-Ashville over #16 Arkansas-Little Rock
East
First Round
#1 Ohio State over #16 UT-San Antonio
#2 North Carolina over #15 Long Island
#3 Syracuse over #14 Indiana State
#4 Kentucky over #13 Princeton
#5 West Virginia over #12 Clemson
#6 Xavier over #11 Marquette
#10 Georgia over #7 Washington
#8 George Mason over #9 Villanova
Second Round
#1 Ohio State over #8 George Mason
#2 North Carolina over #10 Georgia
#6 Xavier over #3 Syracuse
#4 Kentucky over #5 West Virginia
Regional Semifinals
#1 Ohio State over #4 Kentucky
#2 North Carolina over #6 Xavier
Regional Final
#1 Ohio State over #2 North Carolina
West
First Round
#1 Duke over #16 Hampton
#2 San Diego State over #15 Northern Colorado
#3 Connecticut over #14 Bucknell
#4 Texas over #13 Oakland
#12 Memphis over #5 Arizona
#11 Missouri over #6 Cincinnati
#7 Temple over #10 Penn State
#8 Michigan over #9 Tennessee
Second Round
#1 Duke over #8 Michigan
#2 San Diego State over #7 Temple
#3 Connecticut over #11 Missouri
#4 Texas over #12 Memphis
Regional Semifinals
#4 Texas over #1 Duke
#2 San Diego State over #3 Connecticut
Regional Final
#2 San Diego State over #4 Texas
Southwest
First Round
#1 Kansas over #16 Boston University
#2 Notre Dame over #15 Akron
#3 Purdue over #14 St. Peter’s
#4 Louisville over #13 Morehead State
#12 Richmond over #5 Vanderbilt
#11 USC over #6 Georgetown
#10 Florida State over #7 Texas A&M
#8 UNLV over #9 Illinois
Second Round
#1 Kansas over #8 UNLV
#2 Notre Dame over #10 Florida State
#3 Purdue over #11 USC
#4 Louisville over #12 Richmond
Regional Semifinals
#1 Kansas over #4 Louisville
#2 Notre Dame over #3 Purdue
Regional Final
#1 Kansas over #2 Notre Dame
Southeast
First Round
#1 Pittsburgh over #16 UNC-Ashville
#2 Florida over #15 UC-Santa Barbara
#3 BYU over #14 Wofford
#13 Belmont over #4 Wisconsin
#5 Kansas State over #12 Utah State
#11 Gonzaga over #6 St. John’s
#7 UCLA over #10 Michigan State
#9 Old Dominion over #8 Butler
Second Round
#1 Pittsburgh over #9 Old Dominion
#2 Florida over #7 UCLA
#3 BYU over #11 Gonzaga
#5 Kansas State over #13 Belmont
Regional Semifinals
#1 Pittsburgh over #5 Kansas State
#2 Florida over #3 BYU
Regional Final
#1 Pittsburgh over #2 Florida
National Semifinals
#1 Ohio State over #2 San Diego State
#1 Kansas over #1 Pittsburgh
National Championship
#1 Ohio State over #1 Kansas
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