Tuesday, March 29, 2011

The Baseball Blog: 2011 Season Predictions

Baseball’s Back


And this year I’m ready for it. My bracket’s been dead for like a month. I’ve already done 14 rotisserie drafts, with one more on the 30th. I’m ready for the standings to go up. This is going to be a big year for baseball. There seems to be a shortage of interesting story lines at the moment. I mean, the biggest story to come out of baseball in the last month was Buck Showalter running off at the mouth in a “Men’s Health” article.

Great, so everybody’s mad at Showalter now. I guess it would be noteworthy if there was a single person alive who actually liked the guy, but that’s obviously not the case. We’re just desperate for stories right now. We need baseball to get here and distract some of the media guys from that silly little court case out by the Bay. They’re never going to let it go are they?

But as I mentioned earlier, this is going to be a big year for baseball. It will take a while for the sporting public to turn their attention to the diamond. There’s the Final Four this weekend; then the Masters; various other golf and tennis majors; the draft; the NBA and Stanley Cup playoffs, etc. But at some point late in the summer baseball’s going to be pretty much all we have. College football will come soon enough, but what about the NFL? What about the dominant sport in this country?

I’m not counting on it this year. I don’t know that we can expect the NBA to start up next November either. Strangely, baseball is the only professional sport that doesn’t seem headed for a long and ugly work stoppage.

This is why the 2011 MLB season needs to be great. There need to be compelling pennant races down to the final week. The postseason has to be competitive and intriguing. College football and Major League Baseball are probably going to be the only games around next fall. We’ll need a good postseason to help distract us from the NFL lockout.

But it’s also important for the sport and for MLB. At this point in time, many sports fans in this country would rather watch a preseason NFL game than a baseball game during the first week of September. Even October (or in some cases, November), has lost much of its appeal for many fans. This year, those same fans will be more likely to focus in on the pennant races and the postseason. It will be a chance for baseball to regain the ground it has lost on the sporting landscape. This wouldn’t be a good year for the D-Backs to play the A’s. This year’s postseason needs to have history and drama and meaning.

Don’t get me wrong; I don’t lose sleep over people not carrying about baseball anymore. I love baseball, but I love football and basketball just as much. My main point is that we’re going to depend on baseball more than ever this year. And maybe if sports fans show the NFL that they aren’t the only show in town, the owners won’t be so quick to put an entire season at risk. Anyway, here are my predictions for this season.


2011 MLB Predictions


Note: predicted number of wins and losses are exact.

(#) = predicted finish within league (based on W-L record).

[#} = predicted finish in MLB (based on W-L record).


American League


East

1. Red Sox: 95-67 (1) [3]

2. Yankees: 90-72 (T-4) [T-8]

T3. Blue Jays: 87-75 (T-6) [T-10]

T3. Rays: 87-75 (T-6) [T-10]

5. Orioles: 70-92 (12) [T-24]


Central

1. White Sox: 92-70 (3) [5]

2. Twins: 90-72 (T-4) [T-8]

3. Tigers: 84-78 (8) [T-14]

4. Royals: 61-101 (13) [29]

5. Indians: 57-105 (14) [30]


West

1. Rangers: 93-69 (2) [4]

2. Athletics: 83-79 (9) [16]

3. Angels: 82-80 (10) [T-17]

4. Mariners: 73-89 (11) [22]


National League


East

1. Phillies: 100-62 (1) [1]

2. Braves: 91-71 (T-3) [T-6]

3. Marlins: 80-82 (10) [20]

4. Nationals: 72-90 (12) [23]

5. Mets: 63-99 (15) [27]


Central

1. Brewers: 87-75 (5) [T-10]

2. Cubs: 85-77 (6) [13]

3. Reds: 84-78 (7) [T-14]

4. Cardinals: 82-80 (8) [T-17]

5. Astros: 70-92 (13) [T-24]

6. Pirates: 62-100 (16) [28]


West

1. Giants: 96-66 (2) [2]

2. Dodgers: 91-71 (T-3) [T-6]

3. Rockies: 81-81 (9) [19]

4. Padres: 74-88 (11) [21]

5. Diamond Backs: 68-94 (14) [26]


American League Playoffs

Wildcard Tiebreaker

Yankees over Twins, 1-0

ALDS

Red Sox over White Sox, 3-1

Yankees over Rangers, 3-2

ALCS

Red Sox over Yankees, 4-3


National League Playoffs

Wildcard Tiebreaker

Braves over Dodgers, 1-0

NLDS

Phillies over Brewers, 3-0

Giants over Braves, 3-2

NLCS

Phillies over Giants, 4-2


World Series

Red Sox over Phillies, 4-3


Awards and Leaders

AL MVP: Evan Longoria

NL MVP: Prince Fielder

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

NL Cy Young: Josh Johnson

AL ROY: Jeremy Hellickson

NL ROY: Freddie Freeman

AL Manager of the Year: Joe Girardi

NL Manager of the Year: Don Mattingly

AL Rolaids Reliever of the Year: Neftali Feliz

NL Rolaids Reliever of the Year: Heath Bell

ALCS MVP: Kevin Youkilis

NLCS MVP: Roy Halladay

World Series MVP: Jon Lester

AL Batting Champ: Robinson Cano

NL Batting Champ: Joey Votto

AL Homerun King: Adam Dunn

NL Homerun King: Albert Pujols

AL Win Leader: CC Sabathia

NL Win Leader: Roy Halladay

AL Save Leader: Jose Valverde

NL Save Leader: Carlos Marmol

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