Work Still to Be Done
The regular season is over and it’s come down to this for the Georgia Bulldogs: sweep the Alabama schools in the SEC Tournament, or fail. If the Dawgs fall short of the NCAA Tournament this season there will be no denying that they have utterly underachieved. It would be a bitter disappointment if Trey Tompkins and Travis Leslie enter the NBA Draft next year without taking the Dawgs to the Dance.
This season has been full of missed opportunities, and yet the Dawgs have done a lot right. They finished with a winning record in the SEC. They won 20 games. They beat Kentucky, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech. Their NCAA Tournament hopes have been tenuous really ever since the end of January when they couldn’t take care of business against the Vols and Florida at home, losing a pair of heartbreakers over a 7-day period.
When the smoke momentarily cleared Sunday night following a loss at Bama in the season finale, the Dawgs were suddenly on the wrong side of that annoying fat-faced guy’s “last 4 in/out” list. Even worse, they were blocked by another team from the conference. In fact, they were blocked by the team that they lost to in their final regular season game, and whom they will have to face again in the second round of the SEC Tournament (if they can first get by Auburn). Annoyingly, the Dawgs can seemingly gain nothing from winning their first round game against the Tigers, other than the opportunity to then face Alabama.
If the Dawgs do get by Auburn—which won’t be easy—an even more annoying situation awaits them on Friday. If the Dawgs beat the Tide and then lose to Kentucky in the semifinals, all they will really have done is eliminate Alabama and put themselves in position to perhaps get an NCAA bid, as long as there are few surprises in the various conference tournaments. However, if the Dawgs lose to Alabama, it would appear that they would essentially be off the table in terms of even being considered for an at-large bid.
This is most annoying, because when you take into account all of the things that the “committee” claims to look for when choosing which teams to pick for the tournament, Georgia and Alabama are not all that close. They want teams to play a difficult schedule. The Dawgs did that (strength of schedule: 33rd); Bama didn’t (strength of schedule (147th). They want to know who you’ve beaten. Both teams won against Kentucky and at Tennessee, but the Dawgs have the lone solid out of conference win between the two (vs. UAB, RPI: 28). They want to know who you’ve lost to. The Dawgs’ worst loss is actually on the road to Alabama (RPI: 81). Meanwhile, the Tide has lost to several teams in the upper reaches of the RPI: Seton Hall (RPI: 90), Iowa (RPI: 165), Providence (RPI: 146), and St. Peter’s (RPI: 104). And yet, if the Dawgs are 0-2 against the Tide, and the “selection committee” decides to take one or the other as the final SEC team, you would have to assume that it will be Bama getting the nod.
Matchup with Auburn
In order to setup the possible “play-in” game with Alabama, the Dawgs will have to get past Auburn on Thursday. This will be a trickier matchup than people who don’t follow the SEC might expect. To begin with, it’s the first game of the tournament this year, 1:00 PM on Thursday. I realize that when your season is on the line you shouldn’t be worrying about time and place, but the reality is that it’s just a weird setting. The setup at the Dome takes some getting used to and the atmosphere is going to be sleepy. Look, the attendance and atmosphere at Stegeman has been better this season than it has been at any point since the last Harrick season, but it’s 1:00 PM on a Thursday. No matter how fired up the fan base is, there just aren’t going to be that many Dawg people there. The Dawgs will have to be careful not to get lulled to sleep by the atmosphere and keep their intensity.
Looking at the records you might expect a mismatch. The Dawgs are 9-7 in the SEC and 20-10 overall, while the Tigers are 4-12 in the conference and just 11-19 overall. But the gap isn’t nearly as big as the records indicate. It has rarely been easy for Georgia this season. 9 of UGA’s 20 wins this season have come by 4 points or less (or in overtime). And the Tigers finished the regular season strong; or at least, they finished the regular season playing much better than they were early on. They went just 7-7 in non-conference play and then lost their first 6 SEC games. However, they are 4-6 in their last 10, with an overtime loss at Georgia, a 2-point loss at Bama, and a 2-point loss to Arkansas among their 6 losses. They could have easily won 7 of their last 10 SEC games.
And then there is that aforementioned game in Athens back on February 5th. The Dawgs were never able to pull away from Auburn that day. The Tigers stole an inbounds pass in the closing seconds and tied it up, sending the game to OT. The Dawgs put Auburn away in the overtime session, eventually winning 81-72. However, Auburn had no trouble at all scoring on the Dawgs in that first meeting, and this time the game will be played in a neutral setting.
In the first meeting the Dawgs had a major edge inside, out-rebounding the Tigers 40-28, getting numerous shots from close to the basket, and forcing the Tigers to give up a lot of fouls. With the help of dunks and layups, the Dawgs shot 49%. They shot 37 free throws, but they missed 12, and they will have to do a better job in that area. Fortunately, Auburn went just 5 for 14 on free throws, but the Tigers stayed in the game by going 9 of 18 from behind the 3-point line. The Tigers also forced 17 turnovers while only committing 9.
The guy that killed the Dawgs in the first meeting was sophomore guard Earnest Ross, who went off for 30 points, hitting 5 of 7 from beyond the arc, also recording 7 boards, an assist, and 3 steals. Ross is Auburn’s leading scorer and rebounder this season. The Dawgs were carried by senior forward Jeremy Price—easily the most improved player on the UGA squad this season—who scored 22 points, grabbed 14 rebounds, and blocked 4 shots, converting 10 of 13 from the free-throw line.
The Potential Rematch with Bama
If the Dawgs beat Auburn it will set up a rematch with Bama on Friday, with Georgia again playing the first game of the day. Bama has a 20-10 overall record to match UGA and they have an impressive looking 12-4 record in conference play. However, the Tide went 8-2 against the weak SEC West. The Tide beat the Dawgs last Saturday, but that game was at Coleman Coliseum where Bama was 16-0 this season. The Dawgs jumped out to a 7-0 lead, and led 13-5 after about 4 and a half minutes of play, but Bama then went on a 22-8 run to take a 27-21 lead into halftime. The Dawgs were much better offensively in the second half, but the Tide was basically in control the rest of the way. It was 60-49 with just less than 3 minutes remaining. The Dawgs made a late charge to cut the deficit to 5 with a half minute to go, but Bama hung on to win 65-57.
What is worrisome about the loss to Bama is that the Dawgs outshot the Tide, hit 4 of 8 3-pointers, and went 15 for 17 at the line, yet still lost fairly handedly. Bama’s zone shutoff the taps for the Dawgs offensively for long stretches and forced the Dawgs into 16 turnovers. The Tide also grabbed 14 offensive rebounds and the Dawgs will have to do a better job in that area.
If Georgia meets Bama again in the SEC Tournament it will be imperative that Gerald Robinson stays out of foul trouble. They’ll also need to get much more out of Jeremy Price. Despite the fact that Chris Hines was essentially nullified due to foul trouble, Bama was fairly dominant inside, with forwards JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell combining for 32 points, 20 rebounds, an assist, 3 steals, and 3 blocks. The Dawgs also need to stay up on Charvez Davis, who burned them for 5 trays on 10 attempts.
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