The changes to the “Big Dance” this season have made it even more confusing and difficult for me to get my picks in for the “Little Dances” which no one cares about. Without further ado…
2011 CollegeInsider.com Tournament (CIT) Predictions
Note: If you’re surprised that this thing is back for a 3rd edition, you may not be alone, but you should probably get used to it. Not only is the CIT back in 2011, it’s BIGGER than ever. Yes, the CIT actually EXPANDED by 8 teams this season. The field in now 24 teams (too?) large. This is the mid-major tournament. I mean the NIT and CBI have plenty of mid-majorish types as well, but the CIT is just about exclusively mid and low majors. The CIT and CBI compete against each other for the non-NCAA Tournament teams that aren’t invited to the NIT either. This year, the winner of the Great West Conference Tournament—it happened to be North Dakota—received an automatic bid to the CIT (sweet!!!). Remember that this tournament doesn’t have a bracket—teams are reseeded after the first round—making it difficult to predict. It’s fairly hard to know how teams will be ranked because location and/or arena availability are taken into account.
This season it gets both more and less complicated. There are now 24 teams in the field and 12 first round games. After the first round is completed, the remaining 12 teams will be seeded, with the top 4 seeds receiving byes into the quarterfinals. Obviously this makes correctly predicting the top 4 seeds important. However, I actually prefer this setup to the previous one which called for total reseeding after each and every round. At least this way we have a bracket to work with after round one. Each and every game in the tournament is played at the home site of one of the teams. Not surprisingly, home teams dominated the action in the first two years, going 12-3 in 2009 and 10-5 in 2010. This is the mid-major tournament, and so far it has been dominated by teams from what many would consider the best “true” mid/low-major conferences: the CAA and the MVC. In 2009, Old Dominion beat fellow CAA team James Madison at home in the semifinals, and then went on the road to beat Bradley of the MVC for the title. Last year Missouri State beat fellow MVC team Creighton at home in the semifinals, and then won at home against Pacific for the title. Pacific (not in this year’s field) lost in the semifinals in 2009 and in the finals in 2010. One final note: this tournament actually began Monday evening (yeah, not many of the teams on this list were sweating out Selection Sunday) with Buffalo playing at Quinnipiac and pulling the upset. I actually probably would have picked Quinnipiac, but since I know what happened, and it would just add to the confusion to pretend otherwise, I’m going to pick Buffalo.
First Round
Buffalo over Quinnipiac
Marshall over Ohio
East Tennessee State over Furman
East Carolina over Jacksonville
Northern Iowa over Rider
Air Force over North Dakota
Santa Clara over Northern Arizona
Hawaii over Portland
Western Michigan over Tennessee Tech
Valparaiso over Iona
SMU over Oral Roberts
San Francisco over Idaho
Second Round
#5 Air Force over #12 SMU
#6 Northern Iowa over #11 Western Michigan
#7 San Francisco over #10 Hawaii
#9 Santa Clara over #8 Buffalo
Quarterfinals
#1 Marshall over #9 Santa Clara
#2 Valparaiso over #7 San Francisco
#3 East Tennessee State over #6 Northern Iowa
#4 East Carolina over #5 Air Force
Semifinals
#1 Marshall over #4 East Carolina
#2 Valparaiso over #3 East Tennessee State
Championship
#1 Marshall over #2 Valparaiso
2011 College Basketball Invitational (CBI) Predictions
Note: This was the original “nuther” postseason college basketball tournament. The CBI is now in its 4th year. It is a 16-team field, made up of teams that received neither an NCAA Tournament nor NIT invitation. All games are played at the home site of one of the teams, so again, location and availability often trumps records and rankings when determining the seeds and matchups. The good thing about the CBI is that there actually is something like a bracket from the very start, although the teams are reseeded before the semifinals. The CBI’s “trademark” if you will, is the “best 2-out-of-3” format of the championship, with the higher seeded team getting the benefit of home court advantage in a potential winner-take-all game 3.
The CBI has also differed from the CIT in a couple of other notable ways. For whatever reason, Home teams have not done nearly as well in this tournament. Home teams were 9-8 in 2008, 10-7 in 2009, and just 7-9 last year. In addition, unlike the CIT, the CBI is not totally devoid of high-major or even BCS conference teams. Teams from the high major conferences have done well, as you would expect, but the high quality mid/low-major conferences have also done well. In 2008, Tulsa beat fellow C-USA team Houston at home in the semifinals, and then won 2 of 3 over Bradley of the MVC to take the title, winning at home in games 1 and 3. In 2009, Oregon State was invited and made one of the four #1 seeds despite a 13-17 record (presumably due to location/availability reasons). The Beavers beat fellow Pac-10 team Stanford at home in the semifinals, and then won 2 of 3 over UTEP of the C-USA to win the title, taking games 1 and 3 at home. Last year, VCU of the CAA changed the script, winning 3 road games to reach the finals, where they swept St. Louis of the A-10, winning game 1 on the road and game 2 at home to take the title. One final note: I’m guessing as to the names of each section of the bracket.
Opening Round
South
#4 James Madison over #1 Davidson
#2 Creighton over #3 San Jose State
West
#1 Montana over #4 Duquesne
#2 Oregon over #3 Weber State
Midwest
#1 Boise State over #4 Austin Peay
#2 Evansville over #3 Hofstra
East
#1 Rhode Island over #4 Miami (Ohio)
#2 Central Florida over #3 St. Bonaventure
Regional Finals
South
#2 Creighton over #4 James Madison
West
#1 Montana over #2 Oregon
Midwest
#1 Boise State over #2 Evansville
East
#1 Rhode Island over #2 Central Florida
Semifinals
#1 Rhode Island over #4 Creighton
#2 Montana over #3 Boise State
Championship
#1 Rhode Island over #2 Montana, 2-1
2011 National Invitation Tournament (NIT) Predictions
Note: Wow! Coming after the CIT and the CBI, the NIT looks a lot more like the “sexy brunette” (as opposed to the “hot blonde”) than the ugly stepsister that it is usually portrayed as these days. The complete NIT history is too long to retell here. Suffice to say that its current format is a 32-team bracket that plays just like the NCAA Tournament, except that all games are played at home sites until the semifinals and finals, when the scene shifts to Madison Square Garden. The NIT gets first dibs on teams left out of the Big Dance, so the field is chalked full of BCS conference and high major teams, as well as the best mid and low major teams that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. Any regular season conference winner that loses in its conference tournament receives an automatic bid to the NIT (unless that team gets an at-large bid to the Big Dance). Of the “Little Dances,” the NIT is the tournament least likely to be turned down by disgruntled or disinterested high majors. One final note: due to scheduling issues, #1 Boston College and #3 Dayton will play on the road in round 1. One finaller note: I’m making up the names of the different sections of the bracket.
First Round
South
#1 Alabama over #8 Coastal Carolina
#2 Miami over #7 Florida Atlantic
#3 Missouri State over #6 Murray State
#4 New Mexico over #5 UTEP
West
#1 Colorado over #8 Texas Southern
#2 St. Mary’s over #7 Kent State
#3 Colorado State over #6 Fairfield
#5 Mississippi over #4 California
East
#1 Boston College over #8 McNeese State
#2 Washington State over #7 Long Beach State
#3 Oklahoma State over #6 Harvard
#4 Northwestern over #5 UW-Milwaukee
Midwest
#1 Virginia Tech over #8 Bethune-Cookman
#2 Cleveland State over #7 Vermont
#6 College of Charleston over #3 Dayton
#4 Wichita State over #5 Nebraska
Second Round
South
#1 Alabama over #4 New Mexico
#3 Missouri State over #2 Miami
West
#1 Colorado over #5 Mississippi
#2 St. Mary’s over #3 Colorado State
East
#1 Boston College over #4 Northwestern
#2 Washington State over #3 Oklahoma State
Midwest
#4 Wichita State over #1 Virginia Tech
#2 Cleveland State over #6 College of Charleston
Regional Finals
South
#1 Alabama over #3 Missouri State
West
#1 Colorado over #2 St. Mary’s
East
#1 Boston College over 2 Washington State
Midwest
#2 Cleveland State over #4 Wichita State
Semifinals
#1 Colorado over #1 Alabama
#1 Boston College over #2 Cleveland State
Championship
#1 Colorado over #1 Boston College
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