The NFL Blog: Week 15 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (9-7); Straight Up (12-4)
Season: Vs. Spread (98-102-8); Straight Up (133-72-1)

Week 14 Review: It was another solid week for me last week, as I had a winning record against the spread and picked 12 of 16 winners correctly. My worst picks were the Giants and Jets covering but I think most people had problems picking those 2 games correctly.

Week 15 Preview: Well, this week is off to a bad start, as I didn’t get my picks in before the Thursday night game so I’m starting off with a loss. Other than that, I feel good about this week. There are some more large lines this week, including the biggest spread of the year. I’m hoping to come through with another solid week here at the end of the season.


Thursday’s Game

New Orleans (+3) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears cover.
Comment: I’m glad this game turned out to be a push because I didn’t get my pick in on time. I still won’t get credit for picking the winner right though.

Sunday’s Early Games

Tampa Bay (+3) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons cover.
Comment: The home team continues to dominate NFC South action. I realize that Matt Ryan and the Falcons will be facing a tough defense this Sunday and one that just got embarrassed on Monday Night Football, but I think they can handle it. The Bucs won the first game, 24-9, but that was in Tampa and that was in week 2. The Bucs have no explosive offensive weapons and, as we saw last Monday, the defense can be run on. I think the Falcons will win and it’s a field goal spread so I’ll just take them to cover.

Washington (-7) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Redskins win but Bengals beat the spread.
Comment: I know the Bengals suck but the Redskins are just not a team I feel comfortable picking to win by more than a TD on the road right now. They’ve lost 4 of 5 and they are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games. Plus, this week Clinton Portis caused turmoil with his negative comments about Jim Zorn. I’m not going to pick the Bengals to win but I don’t think Washington will win by more than a TD.

Tennessee (-3) @ Houston
Pick: Titans cover.
Comment: Both of these teams could suffer a let down this week. Houston has won 3 straight but they are now out of playoff contention. The Titans are 12-1 but they have a 2 game lead on the rest of the AFC. Houston is very tough at home but the Titans have yet to lose on the road this year. You could go either way in this game but I’ll take Tennessee. The Titans won the first matchup between these two teams, 31-12, and I’m going to take them to win this game by a TD or so.

Detroit (+17) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Lions beat the spread.
Comment: This is the biggest spread of the year in the NFL. The Colts have won 6 straight and the Lions are now 0-12 on the season. Still, 17 points is a huge spread, and I just can’t go with the Colts to win by over 17. I think they’ll win by two TD’s or so but not by 18 plus.

Green Bay (-1) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Packers cover.
Comment: It’s tough to put much faith in either of these teams right now. The Packers are virtually out of the playoffs and the Jags have been for weeks. I’m going to go with Green Bay because I think they are the better team and the team with more pride.

San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chargers win but Chiefs beat the spread.
Comment: The Chargers are still barley alive and the Chiefs continue to lose, but this was a 1 point game when it was played in SD earlier this year. I think the Chargers will win it but I think they’ll make it interesting as usual.

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Miami
Pick: Dolphins win but Niners beat the spread.
Comment: This is one of the toughest games on the week 15 slate to predict. San Fran has been playing much better lately but they have to go across country for this one. I’ll take the Dolphins to win but by less than a TD.

Buffalo (+9) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets win but Bills beat the spread.
Comment: The Bills have been awful lately but I think they’ll be competitive against the slumping Jets. I’ll take the Jets to win but not by double digits.

Seattle (-1) @ St. Louis
Pick: Seahawks cover.
Comment: As bad as the Seahawks have been, they’ve still been much more competitive than St. Louis. I think Seattle wins this one easily.

Sunday’s Late Games

Minnesota (+3) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals cover.
Comment: Arizona has clinched the division title but they still have something to play for. They’re tough to beat at home and now the Vikings will have to play with Tarvaris Jackson at QB. I like the Cardinals to win and it’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take them to cover.

New England (-7) @ Oakland
Pick: Patriots cover.
Comment: The injuries continue to pile up for New England. They’re only 1-3 in their last 4 games ATS but Oakland is god awful. I have to go with the Patriots to win this one by at least 8 or 9.

Pittsburgh (+3) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens win but Steelers beat the spread.
Comment: For me, this game is about even, so I have to hedge. I’ll take the Ravens to win by a point or two.

Denver (+9) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers win but Broncos beat the spread.
Comment: The Broncos lost yet another running back last week, while Carolina played its most impressive game of the year, dismantling Tampa Bay on MNF. The Panthers should win this game but I don’t see them winning by double digits.

Sunday Night’s Game

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas
Pick: Giants pull off the upset.
Comment: The Giants will be without Brandon Jacobs again and the Cowboys need this game more than they do but I still don’t think the G-Men will lose 2 in a row. I like New York to pull this one out and send T.O. and the Cowgirls on a downward spiral out of the playoffs.

Monday Night’s Game

Cleveland (+14) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles win but Browns beat the spread.
Comment: This seems like a really big spread, considering the fact that the Eagles tied Cincinnati at home just a few weeks ago. I’ll take Philly to win easily but not by more than 2 TD’s.

The NFL Blog: Power Rankings (After Week 14)

Power Rankings After Week 14

1. New York Giants 11-2 (1st)
2. Pittsburgh 10-3 (2nd)
3. Tennessee 12-1 (3rd)
4. Indianapolis 9-4 (6th)
5. Baltimore 9-4 (7th)
6. Carolina 10-3 (NR)
7. Tampa Bay 9-4 (5th)
8. Philadelphia 7-5-1 (NR)

-Previous week’s ranking in parenthesis;

Out: New York Jets (4th), Dallas (8th);


Explanation: A week after no team fell out of my rankings, things got back to normal this week as a pair of teams dropped out of my top 8. I suppose my rankings would be a bit controversial, as I decided not to move the G-Men out of 1st place, despite the fact that they lost badly at home to the Eagles and they are dealing with injuries and distractions.
My reasoning is that I’m willing to give the Giants one bad game every 2 months. I think perhaps things would be different if they weren’t so far ahead of everyone else in the NFC. Right now, I still think they are the NFL’s top team, so they’re my #1 team for the 3rd straight week. My number 2 and 3 teams stayed the same this week. The Steelers got a dramatic come from behind win over the Cowboys at home to go to 10-3 on the season, and Pittsburgh is 2nd in my rankings for the second week in a row. The #3 team in my top 8 for the third week in a row is the Titans, who beat Cleveland at home to go to 12-1 on the season. The New York Jets had been the #4 team in my rankings, but after they lost to the Niners last week for their second embarrassing defeat in a row, I dropped the Jets all the way out of my top 8 this week. Just 2 weeks after jumping from out of my rankings all the way to 2nd, the Jets are gone from my top 8. Moving up 2 spots from 6th to take the Jets’ place in the number 4 slot this week are the Indianapolis Colts, who crushed the Bengals last Sunday for their 6th win in a row to get to 9-4. The Tampa Bay Bucs had been the #5 team in my top 8 but they got run over by the Panthers on Monday night to fall to 9-4 on the year. Moving up 2 spots from 7th to take Tampa’s place in the number 5 slot this week are the Baltimore Ravens, who won easily over the Redskins on Sunday night to get to 9-4 on the season. There is a new team in the #6 slot this week and that is the Carolina Panthers, who won convincingly over the Bucs at home on Monday night to go to 10-3 on the year and jump back into my rankings after 2 weeks out. I decided to drop the Bucs 2 spots in my rankings from 5th to 7th place. The final spot in my top 8 had been held by the Cowboys in the previous 2 editions of my power rankings but after their collapse in Pittsburgh in week 14 I decided to drop them out. Taking their place in the 8th spot this week are the Philadelphia Eagles, who got a huge road win over the Giants last week to get to 7-5-1 on the year. The Eagles are back in my rankings after a 3 week hiatus.

The College Football Blog: Power Rankings (After Week 15)

Power Rankings After Week 15

1. Florida 12-1 (1st)
2. Texas 11-1 (2nd)
3. Oklahoma 12-1 (3rd)
4. Alabama 12-1 (4th)
5. USC 11-1 (5th)
6. Texas Tech 11-1 (6th)
7. Penn State 11-1 (7th)
8. Ohio State 10-2 (8th)
9. Utah 12-0 (9th)
10. Oklahoma State 9-3 (10th)
11. TCU 10-2 (11th)
12. Boise State 12-0 (12th)

-Previous week’s ranking in parenthesis;

Out: none;
Next Three In: Mississippi, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech.

Explanation: The 15th and final week of the regular season was a little anticlimactic if you ask me. It was pretty uneventful. Thus, it’s no surprise that my 15th and final power rankings are wholly unremarkable. For just the second time all year my rankings did not change in any way. Of the 12 teams in my rankings after week 14, only 4 were in action in week 15. Florida remained my number 1 team for the 6th straight week. Obviously I wasn’t going to move them out of the top spot after they beat previously undefeated Bama (my #4 team) 31-20 on a neutral field to claim the SEC title. Texas had been my #2 team and Oklahoma had been 3rd in my rankings and I kept both teams right where they were despite Oklahoma’s easy dismantling of Missouri in the Big XII Championship Game. That’s what everyone with a clue expected Oklahoma to do. I’m not going to move them to 2nd just because they lucked out and got to play in the conference title game. Texas would have dealt Missouri just as bad of a beating. I kept Alabama in the number 4 slot even though they lost for the first time all year. They lost on a neutral field to the team that I think is the best in the nation and they had the lead in the 4th quarter. That’s no reason to move them down from the 4th position. USC stayed in the 5 spot after they won easily over UCLA as expected. The rest of the teams in my top 12 were idle in week 15, and thus they all stayed the same. As for the next 3 teams in, I decided to keep them the same too, with Ole Miss, Cincinnati, and Georgia Tech maintaining that space. However, I almost moved the Bearcats out after they needed a lot of help from a gagging Hawaii team in order to pull out a miracle win in what was the last regular season game to be completed this year. Even though some of the teams in my rankings will be playing in just a couple of weeks and then some others won’t be playing for another two weeks, I’m just going to wait and do a final edition of the power rankings after all of the bowls have been played.

The NFL Blog: Week 14 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (9-7); Straight Up (11-5)
Season: Vs. Spread (89-95-8); Straight Up (121-68-1)

Week 13 Review: Last week was pretty solid for me, as I had a winning record ATS and went 11-5 straight up. I almost had a really good week but I missed by a half point in the Indy and TB games. My worst picks were Buffalo to cover a 7 point spread (they lost by 7) and the Jets to cover a 9 point spread (they lost by 17), but I have a feeling a lot of people had trouble with those 2 games.

Week 14 Preview: There certainly are a lot of big spreads this week. Maybe it’s just a coincidence or Vegas knows that this is the time of the year where teams that are out of it tend to just lie down the way the Jags did last Monday. I don’t know but for the most part I’m staying away from favorites in games with big spreads.

Thursday’s Game

Oakland (+10) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Raiders beat the spread.
Comment: Man, Atlanta gave San Diego so many chances to get back in the game last week and the Chargers still lost by 6 points at home as a 6.5 point favorite. Did you realize that the Chargers have never been over .500 at any point this season? They’ll have to win out to avoid a losing season and there’s a possibility they could lose 10 games this season. The Raiders are the Raiders but I’m through giving San Diego any credit. Oakland had them down big in the 4th quarter back in week 4 and then they surrendered like 25 unanswered points and lost 28-18. Sometimes the Raiders don’t show up and they get embarrassed but believe it or not they are normally fairly competitive. SD’s won 10 straight over the Raiders and I think they’ll win again on Thursday night but not by double digits.

Sunday’s Early Games

Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears cover.
Comment: The Bears haven’t been great lately. In fact, they’ve lost 3 of 4 and their only win in their last 4 was over the Rams. But the Jags have been bad all season and it looked like they had basically quit last Monday night. They’ve lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 and their only win in the last 6 games was over the Lions. They’ve lost their last 3 by double digits and I think they’ll lose by double digits again this week.

Minnesota (-9.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Vikings win but Lions beat the spread.
Comment: I realize it isn’t too much to expect the Vikings to win by double digits over the Lions but I would have taken Detroit to keep within single digits even before the suspensions were announced. I’m only more inclined to take the Lions now that I know they will be without their two stud interior tackles Kevin and Pat Williams. Minnesota has been hot, winning 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 8. But they are 2-4 on the road this season and 23-47 on the road this decade. I realize that the Lions are 0-12 at any venue this season and that they just got trampled on their homefield on Thanksgiving, but they’ve been competitive in a lot of games this year. And trust me; they don’t want to go 0-16. To be honest, they wouldn’t still be looking for their first win of the year if it weren’t for a horrendous call by an official made in their first game against Minnesota this year. They lost that one 12-10, thanks largely to that horrible call, and that was in Minnesota. Don’t get me wrong, I want the Lions to lose more than anything because I want to see them go 0-16. And I think they will lose but not by double digits.

Houston (+6) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers win but Texans beat the spread.
Comment: The Packers have really been struggling. They’ve now lost 4 of 5 and they’re only 3-3 this season at Lambeau Field. Houston is coming off of a big Monday night win and that normally spells doom for a team the following week, especially a young team traveling to the East coast. The Texans snapped an 8 game road losing streak against the Browns in week 12 but they’ve actually normally been competitive on the road even when they didn’t win. They are 3-0 against the spread in their last 3 games and I think they’ll keep this one close but I think GB will win it.

Cincinnati (+13.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Bengals beat the spread.
Comment: I know the Bengals are really bad and the Colts have won 5 straight but this is a big number. The Colts have only won 1 game by more than 6 points all season. They’re only 3-5-1 ATS as a favorite this year. I think they’ll win fairly easily but by less than 14.

Atlanta (+3) @ New Orleans
Pick: Falcons pull off the upset.
Comment: As a Falcons fan, I’ve been hesitant to expect too much from this year’s team, even as they continued to win when they weren’t supposed to. I’m still a little leery of putting too much faith in them but I think they’ve got a good shot to win this game. The Saints are now without 4 starters on defense and Deuce McAllister. Reggie Bush is back but not fully healthy and Drew Brees hasn’t always been able to do it by himself recently. The Saints are 4-1 at the Superdome this season but it’s not that big of a deal for the Falcons to fly a couple of hours over to New Orleans and play in a dome. In week 10 the Falcons were 3 TD’s better than the Saints (they scored a meaningless TD on a Hail Mary on the last play of the game to make it 34-20) and I don’t think being in New Orleans will make enough of a difference to keep Atlanta from pulling off the sweep.

Philadelphia (+7) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover.
Comment: In their last 30 games including the playoffs the Giants are 24-6 against the spread. That’s pretty impressive. They keep going up against teams with winning records and beating them decisively regardless of location. The Eagles got back on track against the Cardinals on Thanksgiving and they’ll have a few extra days to prepare for this game but they couldn’t beat the G-Men at home and I don’t see it happening on the road. I think it will be somewhat competitive but in the end I think New York will win by 10 or so.

Cleveland (+13.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Browns beat the spread.
Comment: I know the Browns are down to Ken Dorsey at QB and without Kellen Winslow but they are 4-1 ATS on the road this year. They’ve been competitive most of the year and I don’t think they’ll lie down against Tennessee. The Titans will be well rested after their 37 point win over the Lions on Thanksgiving, but in their last 2 home games they have won in OT over the Packers and lost by 21 to the Jets. I think they’ll win easily over Cleveland but by less than 14.

Sunday’s Late Games

Miami (+1) @ Buffalo
Pick: Dolphins pull off the upset.
Comment: The Bills pulled it together for a week and then last week they score only 3 points and lost by 7 to the Niners at home. That makes them 1-5 in their last 6 games and they’ve lost 3 straight at home. It was their 9 point loss at Miami back in week 8 that started them on this skid. The Dolphins have a bit of a misleading record themselves. They’ve won 5 of 6 but 3 of those wins have come over St. Louis, Seattle, and Oakland by a total of 8 points. They’ve lost 4 straight in Buffalo but they’re playing there at a good time. The Bills have hit rock bottom and they probably won’t have Trent Edwards this week. I think the Fins will get it done.

Kansas City (+9.5) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos win but Chiefs beat the spread.
Comment: I’m not ready to pick the Broncos to win by 10 points against anybody, regardless of location, regardless of opponent, regardless of what they did last week. They’ve lost 3 straight at home anyway. I know the Chiefs snapped a 9 game road losing streak last week with their win in Oakland, but until last week their only win all year had been a 14 point victory over these very Broncos in week 4. The Chiefs are actually 6-6 ATS this season. Denver is 1-6-1 ATS as a favorite this year and just 4-4 straight up as a favorite. I think they’ll win because they are playing the Chiefs but I think it’ll be close.

New York Jets (-4) @ San Francisco
Pick: Jets cover.
Comment: I had finally admitted that I was wrong about the Jets and that they were as good as everybody said they were and then they lost by 17 at home to the Broncos. The Niners are 2-2 since the bye week and 3-1 ATS. But if the Jets are really a good team then they’ll win this one by double digits. It shouldn’t be that close.

New England (-4.5) @ Seattle
Pick: Patriots cover.
Comment: It’s pretty amazing that the Seahawks are 1-5 at home this year and their only home win was over the Rams. This game will probably be competitive but I think the Patriots will end up winning by a TD or so.

St. Louis (+13.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals cover.
Comment: This is a big spread but it doesn’t make much sense to go with St. Louis. Yes, they only lost by 4 to the Dolphins last week, but that was at home, and they’ve lost 8 games by 17 points or more this year. The Cardinals are tough at home and tough against their own division. They’re 5-1 ATS at a favorite this year and they won by 21 over the Rams on the road in week 9. I think they’ll win by about that much at home this weekend.

Dallas (+3) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover.
Comment: What a game! This could go either way in my opinion. The Cowboys are getting it back together now that Romo is back and they’ve won 3 straight. The Steelers are finally starting to get healthy and they’re coming off an impressive win in New England. This is just another game against a good opponent for the Steelers, who seem to play a potential playoff team each week. They’ve already lost twice at home this season and I don’t see it happening again. It’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take Pittsburgh to cover.

Sunday Night’s Game

Washington (+5) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover.
Comment: The Ravens have won 6 of 7 and they are 9-3 ATS this year. They’re 4-1 at home this year and 50-19 at home this decade. Since winning 4 straight earlier this year, the Skins have gone 3-4 with wins over Cleveland, Seattle, and Detroit. They are 1-5-1 ATS during that time. I’ll take the Ravens to win by a TD.

Monday Night’s Game

Tampa Bay (+3) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers cover.
Comment: I think the Bucs are maybe a little better than the Panthers but they are not as good on the road as they are at home. The Panthers don’t have a huge homefield advantage but they’re 6-0 at home this year and Tampa is just not as dangerous away from Raymond James Stadium. They’re 3-3 on the road this year with overtime wins over the Bears and Chiefs and a come from behind win over the Lions. I’m also still not convinced they’ll be able to keep winning without Earnest Graham. I know the Bucs beat Carolina 27-3 in week 6 but that was in Tampa. I think the Panthers will win this one and it’s a field goal spread so I’ll just take the Panthers to cover.

The NFL Blog: Power Rankings (After Week 13)

Power Rankings After Week 13

1. New York Giants 11-1 (1st)
2. Pittsburgh 9-3 (4th)
3. Tennessee 11-1 (3rd)
4. New York Jets 8-4 (2nd)
5. Tampa Bay 9-3 (5th)
6. Indianapolis 8-4 (6th)
7. Baltimore 8-4 (7th)
8. Dallas 8-4 (8th)

-Previous week’s ranking in parenthesis;

Out: none;

Explanation: My power rankings are almost exactly the same this week. The only difference is that the 2nd and 4th place teams swapped positions. For the first time since week 3, and just the second time all season, no team fell out of my top 8. Despite the distractions and the fact that Plaxico Burress is now gone for the year, the Giants are the #1 team in my rankings for the second straight week. The Giants got another impressive road win in week 13, choking the Redskins 23-7 to go to 11-1, and they’ve been handling things without Burress for most of this season. If any other Giants are suspended because of this whole mess, then I’d have to reevaluate, but right now they’re my top team with or without their prima donna wideout. There’s a new #2 team in my rankings this week, as the Steelers jump 2 spots from 4th to 2nd after they drubbed the Patriots, 33-10, in the rain in Foxboro last Sunday to go 9-3. They’ve faced the toughest schedule of any of the top teams in the AFC and they are finally getting healthy. This is the first time they’ve been 2nd in my rankings since week 2. I kept the Titans in 3rd place for the 2nd straight week after they walked all over the hapless Lions, 47-10, on Thanksgiving to go to 11-1. I thought about moving them up to 2nd but then I decided that I’d probably pick the Steelers to beat them on a neutral field right now. Just a week after jumping all the way from out of my rankings to the #2 spot, the Jets fell 2 spots to 4th in my rankings this week after they got smoked at home by the Broncos, 34-17, to fall to 8-4 on the year. I know they just hammered the Titans on the road two weeks ago, but I decided to drop them below Tennessee after their awful performance last Sunday. I had always thought people were jumping on the Jets’ bandwagon too eagerly, but after what they did to the Titans I was convinced they were really that good. Then they made me rethink things after shitting all over themselves last week. The final 4 spots in my rankings stayed the same this week. The Bucs are my #5 team for the 3rd straight week after they got a huge 23-20 win over the Saints at home to go to 9-3 on the season. I almost moved them up to 4th ahead of the Jets but I’m still concerned about their running game without Earnest Graham so I kept them 5th. The Colts are again in my number 6 slot after they squeaked by the Browns, 10-6, on the road last week to get to 8-4, despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. The Colts aren’t really playing that well but they are winning. This was their 5th straight win so I decided to leave them at 6th for a 3rd straight week. The number 7 team in my rankings is again Baltimore after they smooshed the Benglas, 34-3, last week to go 8-4. The Ravens are playing well but the Colts beat them 31-3 back in week 6 so I’m leaving them 7th for now. Baltimore has been 7th in my rankings for 4 of the last 5 weeks. The Cowboys are in the final spot in my rankings for a 2nd straight week after they hammered the Seahawks, 34-9, on Thanksgiving to get to 8-4. Dallas hasn’t lived up to expectations recently but they might finally achieve something this year playing as a dark horse.

The College Football Blog: Power Rankings (After Week 14)

Power Rankings After Week 14

1. Florida 11-1 (1st)
2. Texas 11-1 (2nd)
3. Oklahoma 11-1 (3rd)
4. Alabama 12-0 (5th)
5. USC 10-1 (6th)
6. Texas Tech 11-1 (4th)
7. Penn State 11-1 (7th)
8. Ohio State 10-2 (8th)
9. Utah 12-0 (12th)
10. Oklahoma State 9-3 (9th)
11. TCU 10-2 (NR)
12. Boise State 12-0 (NR)

-Previous week’s ranking in parenthesis;

Out: Missouri (10th), Georgia (11th);
Next Three In: Mississippi, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech.

Explanation: First of all let me say that I feel less sure of myself as far as knowing what’s going on in college football right now than I have at any previous point this season. I just have to point that out first before I try and explain myself. The top of my of my rankings are pretty easy to understand. Florida hammered FSU, 45-15, in Tallahassee last week to go to 11-1 on the year. For me they are a clear choice for the number 1 spot and they are my top team for the 5th week in a row. Texas did all they could do on Thanksgiving, crushing their rivals Texas A&M, 49-9, to get to 11-1. They’ve been in my top 2 now for 9 weeks in a row and I’m not about to move them just because the rest of the country thinks Oklahoma is “hotter.” The Horns are 2nd in my rankings for the 5th week in a row. I picked Oklahoma to win the National Championship this year and they were impressive again last week, outlasting Oklahoma State, 61-41, in Stillwater. The Sooners are 3rd in my rankings for a 2nd straight week this week. Alabama had been ranked 5th in my top 12 but I decided to move them up a spot to 4th this week. They finally won impressively last week over their rival Auburn, shutting out the Tigers (or War Eagle or whatever they call themselves) 36-0 to finish the regular season 12-0. In 5th place this week is USC, who dominated Notre Dame last week, 38-3, going to 10-1 on the year. Texas Tech had been 4th in my rankings, but I decided to drop them a couple of spots to 6th after they fell down 28-14 to Baylor at home, before coming back to win 35-28. Penn State and Ohio State were already finished with the regular season and thus they stay in 7th and 8th place respectively in my top 12. Utah had already wrapped up their season as well, but just a week after jumping back into my rankings, the Utes jump 3 spots from 12th to 9th in my rankings this week. I dropped Oklahoma State a spot from 9th to 10th after they lost at home to Oklahoma to fall to 9-3 on the year. While they have lost 3 times and their only win of any significance is over Missouri, their 3 losses are to teams in my top 6 and I think they’d beat most teams in the country on a neutral field. 2 teams make their debut in my rankings this week in the last 2 spots in my top 12. At #11 I have TCU, who had already finished a 10-2 regular season and was off this last week. And in the final spot I have Boise State, who crushed Fresno State at home, 61-10, last Friday to finish the year undefeated at 12-0. To show you how uncertain I am about things, this is the first time since week 1 and just the second time all year that more than 1 team fell completely out of my rankings. Missouri had been 10th in my rankings for the previous 3 weeks but I decided to drop them out of my top 12 after they lost 40-37 to a disappointing Kansas team on a neutral field. They finished the year 9-3 and their other 2 losses are at Texas and against Oklahoma State, but their most impressive win is a blowout road victory over Nebraska in week 6. They allowed 42 to Illinois, 40 to Kansas, and 56 to Texas. I knew they weren’t as good as I thought they would be before last week’s loss but I thought they had gotten on a roll and I did not think they were capable of losing that game. Now you might say this wasn’t really a bad loss but Kansas came into this game 6-5 with no solid wins. I couldn’t keep Missouri in the top 12 after they dropped that game. Moving on, for the first time all year Georgia was not included in my power rankings. They had been 11th in my rankings for the previous 3 weeks but I had to drop them out of my top 12 after they lost to their rivals Georgia Tech at home, 45-42. They finished the year 9-3 and their other 2 losses are to Florida and Alabama, but their most impressive win is a 14-7 victory over South Carolina on the road in week 3. I may be a die hard Dawg fan but I’m not blind and I do try my hardest to be unbiased in things like rankings. And with that in mind, it wasn’t hard for me to drop Georgia out of the top 12. I mean, if I kept them in my rankings it would be the worst case of blind devotion since Ted Bundy’s mother believed her son was innocent until he finally told her the truth on the eve of his execution. Of course he had grown up thinking his mother was his sister but I digress. The point is, Missouri and Georgia are teams from highly respected conferences with 9-3 records but I couldn’t keep them in my rankings any longer.

The thing that looks the most different about my rankings this week is the fact that there are 3 teams from non-BCS conferences in the top 12. The top non-BCS teams had spent most of the year occupying my “next 3 in” spot. Prior to this week, no non-BCS team had been higher than 11th in my top 12, and there had never been more than 1 non-BCS team in my power rankings at any time. This week a non-BCS team is ranked 9th and there are 3 non-BCS teams in the rankings. This is also the first week that a non-BCS team has stayed in my rankings for consecutive weeks. East Carolina (ha!) was 11th in my week 2 power rankings and then fell out the next week and was never heard from again. Utah was 12th in my week 8 rankings and then fell out the next week and didn’t return until week 13 when they were again 12th. So they are the first non-BCS team to be in my top 12 for consecutive weeks and they are ranked higher at #9 than any non-BCS team yet. My reasoning for putting the non-BCS teams higher in my rankings has less to do with my being impressed with them than my not being impressed by BCS teams. I’m still skeptical of all 3 of the non-BCS teams in my rankings. When I consider these “mid majors” the thing I always keep in mind is my firm belief in attrition by schedule. In other words: regardless of who these teams play in their non-conference games and no matter how badly they beat the teams in their conference, they simply do not face the same level of competition from week to week throughout the year that teams from BCS conferences do. I always consider a team’s schedule when deciding where to rank them but I’m going to discount a non-BCS team’s record more than other teams because their weekly competition is significantly weaker than even the worst BCS conference. So I don’t just put teams in my rankings because they haven’t lost yet. Ball State is undefeated but you won’t find them in my top 25, much less my top 12. Anyway, I’m still not sure how good Utah, TCU, and Boise State are. However, I’ve realized that some of the BCS teams that I thought were among the best in football are not as good as I thought they were. So I decided to move the non-BCS teams into my rankings, if only because they have not yet shown me that they aren’t worthy of being ranked that high. Again, that’s the problem with ranking those teams that high all along just because they haven’t lost. I mean, do you think Texas Tech would have a loss if they played in the WAC? Do you think Penn State would have lost if they were in the Mountain West? But just in case someone cares, I’ll explain the reasons I moved the 3 non-BCS teams up this week and why I still have them behind a few teams with worse records. Utah is the highest ranked team from outside the BCS. They went 12-0 which is always impressive, they beat Oregon State, they beat TCU, and they beat BYU in their last game, 48-24. They have a very good defense and they also can score some points. Some of their other wins are okay and they won most of their games decisively. The reason I don’t have Utah any higher is that I could discredit their big wins pretty easily. Their 3 biggest wins all game at home. Their wins over Michigan, Oregon State, TCU, New Mexico, and Air Force were by a combined 18 points. I watched all of those games and I can tell you that Utah was extremely fortunate to beat Oregon State and TCU. In fact, I’m still not sure that Utah would beat TCU on a neutral field. Speaking of TCU, they are my next highest rated non-BCS team, and like I said, I’m not sure they shouldn’t be the highest. They have an awesome defense and they can score as well. They nearly won at Utah before losing by 3 and their other loss is a pretty damn respectable 35-10 defeat at Oklahoma. They beat BYU, 32-7, and they crushed Air Force and New Mexico, teams that Utah struggled with. They also beat Stanford, 31-14. The reason I don’t have them higher is that they lost to Utah and like all non-BCS teams they don’t play as tough of a conference schedule as BCS teams do. Boise State is the other non-BCS team in my rankings and I was more leery of putting the Broncos in my top 12 than the other 2. Boise State dominates the teams in the WAC but to be honest, that’s not saying all that much. Does it mean that they are clearly, without question the best team in the WAC? Yes. But I don’t know how much it means as far as teams from BCS conferences are concerned. The best thing the Broncos have in their favor is their 37-32 win at Oregon in week 4. That is an impressive victory to be sure. The only little issue is that Oregon was severely handicapped at the time by injuries to their quarterbacks. They were playing with a 3rd string QB who turned the ball over again and again. That doesn’t mean the win doesn’t count. I’m just saying that there’s some question as to how big of a win it really was. Anyway, I ended up putting all 3 teams in because I didn’t think I could argue strongly against them anymore.

My next 3 teams in spot also has a different look to it this week. Ole Miss has only been there for the last 2 weeks, and neither Cincinnati nor Georgia Tech had been mentioned in my next 3 teams in spot this year prior to this week. But the significance is really more about the conferences. Going into this season, I thought that the SEC was not as good as the last couple of years but that it was still the best conference. Over the course of the season, I had come to believe that the Big XII was the best conference and that the SEC was significantly down this season. But in the last few weeks my opinion of the SEC has changed again. At this point—and as an SEC fan it pains me to say this—I’m having a hard time calling the SEC anything more than ordinary. This will partly explain why for the first time this year there are only 2 teams from the SEC in my top 12. In my preseason power 15, there were 7 SEC teams and 5 were in my top 12. There were 5 SEC teams in my top 12 for 5 of the first 6 weeks, and there were at least 4 SEC teams in my top 12 for the first 12 weeks. Then last week the number dropped to 3 after LSU lost to Ole Miss at home. And this week the number drops down to 2 after Georgia lost at home to Tech. I have Ole Miss in my “next 3 in” for the second week in a row and I thought about having them in my top 12 but then I just decided that there was no real reason to have them in front of the non-BCS teams. There’s nothing special about being the 3rd best SEC team this year. I do believe Ole Miss is the 3rd best SEC team and they did win at Florida and lose by 4 at Bama, but they also lost a close game at Wake Forrest and they lost at home to Vandy and South Carolina. I think they’re playing better than most teams in the country right now, but I can’t say that I would favor them over those non-BCS teams on a neutral field. The other 2 teams in my next 3 in are from the Big East and the ACC. That’s significant because for most of the year I basically dismissed those 2 conferences as being weak and without a great team. While I still think the Big East and ACC were pretty weak this year, I’ve changed my mind on them not having great or at least really good teams. Cincinnati is 10-2 with losses at Oklahoma and at UConn. They have an excellent defense and they’ve won 5 straight. The downside to Cinci is that they don’t have very impressive wins. Their best wins are at West Virginia in overtime and at home against Pitt by 7. The Big East was not strong this year and outside of Oklahoma their non-conference slate was very tame. So I’m not sure how good they are but the fact that I’ve got them in the discussion is a change. I had 2 Big East teams in my preseason power rankings and in my top 12 for week 1, and there was at least 1 Big East team in my top 12 for the first 3 weeks. But I haven’t even had a Big East team in my next 3 in since week 5. And then there’s Tech. Now you might say I’m being influenced by the fact that I’m a Georgia fan and Tech just beat my team at my team’s stadium. You may think that I’m overrating them because I overrate Georgia. But that’s not the case. I’ve basically ignored the ACC for most of the season because no team seemed to be better than above average but I think the league has improved over the course of the year. And I do think that Tech is the best ACC team even though they won’t even play for the conference championship. I also think BC is very good, but they don’t have their starting QB anymore and Tech beat BC in Boston and they are both 9-3. So anyway, the fact that I have an ACC team and a Big East team in my “next 3 in” and I have 3 non-BCS teams and only 2 SEC teams in my top 12 is pretty amazing.

The College Football Blog: Week 15 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (6-18); Moneyline Upsets (2-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (64-89-1); Moneyline Upsets (17-19)

Week 14 Review: Wow. Okay, so that did not go well. I tried to get my record back close to .500 all in one big week and ended up picking 25% correct against the spread. I had Mississippi State beating a 13 point spread (they lost 45-0); Fresno State beating a 17 point spread (they lost 61-10); South Carolina beating a 1 point spread (they lost 31-14); Missouri covering a 13 point spread (they lost 40-37); and Oregon State covering a 3 point spread (they lost 65-38). Those were just some of the main lowlights but there were others. It couldn’t have gone all that much worse.

Week 15 Preview: Well, it’s the final week of the regular season and I’m currently at rock bottom. I hope. If I went 15 for 15 this week I’d still be 10 games under .500. Here goes nothing.

Wednesday

Game 1: Middle Tennessee State (+5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette
Pick: ULL covers.
Comment: The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost 3 straight by at least 11 points, while the Blue Raiders have won 3 straight. However, MTS’ last 2 games were against Western Kentucky and North Texas, while ULL played UTEP at home and then played at FAU and Troy. MTS is 1-5 on the road this year and their only road win was at WK. I’ll take ULL to win by 6 or 7.

Thursday

Game 2: Louisville (+10) @ Rutgers
Pick: Rutgers covers.
Comment: This is a battle of two teams going in opposite directions. Since starting the year 0-5 against FBS teams, Rutgers has won 5 straight. Louisville started off 5-2 but has since lost 4 in a row. Rutgers has won each of their last 4 games by at least 18 points and I think they’ll whip the Cardinals by at least 2 touchdowns.

Friday

Game 3: Buffalo (+15) vs. Ball State
Pick: Ball State covers.
Comment: This is the MAC Championship Game in Detroit and it will be the first time either team has played in the conference championship game. The Bulls finally ran out of luck last week when they lost at home to a Kent State team that came into the game 2-8 vs. FBS competition. While both Buffalo and Ball State have been good stories this year, one team has had a significantly greater year. The Bulls are 7-5 and they could be 10-2 with losses only to Pitt and Mizzu on the road. On the other hand, the Bulls could easily be 3-9. They’ve played an inordinate amount of close games, with 4 of 12 games going into OT and 3 other games being decided by 3 points or less. They are 3-1 in OT and they also won by 2 over Temple on a Hail Mary at the buzzer. While there is certainly a “magical” feel to Buffalo’s season, they’ve been no where near as good as Ball State. BSU is 12-0 and they’ve won each game by at least 7 points and 11 of their 12 wins have been by at least 12 points. 15 points is a big spread but if you look at the 5 common opponents between these two teams, BSU has a huge edge. I’ll take them to win by 21 or so.

Saturday

Game 4: East Carolina (+13.5) @ Tulsa
Pick: Tulsa covers.
Comment: This is the Conference USA Championship Game but it’s just another home game for Tulsa and they are 16-2 at home over the last 3 years, with one of the two losses coming in OT and the other against Oklahoma. The Pirates have basically squeaked by since their 2-0 start. I’ll take the Golden Hurricane by 2 TD’s or more.

Game 5: Navy (-11) vs. Army
Pick: Navy covers.
Comment: This one is played in Philadelphia. As intense of a rivalry as this one is, it really hasn’t been close lately. Navy has won 6 straight by double digits. Army is better this year and Navy isn’t quite as good. The Black Knights got off to a horrendous start, losing their first 3 games to Temple (35-7), New Hampshire (28-10), and Akron (22-3) all at home. Since then they are 3-5 but some of their losses have been respectable. Still, I think Navy will definitely win by double digits and probably by more than 11.

Game 6: Boston College (Pick) vs. Virginia Tech
Pick: Boston College covers.
Comment: This of course is the ACC Championship Game played in Tampa. If BC’s quarterback wasn’t hurt this would be an easy pick. Even without him, I’ll still take BC. They’ve won 4 straight and they beat VT by 5 at home earlier this year. Personally, I’m not at all impressed by VT. I think the Eagles win.

Game 7: Washington (+35.5) @ Cal
Pick: Washington beats the spread.
Comment: You know, when I looked things over, I realized this spread was probably about right, but it’s still ridiculous. I’ve got to think the Huskies will be more up for this one than the Bears, as this is their last chance to get a win and avoid finishing the season winless. I think Cal will win by 28 or 30 but I’ll take Washington to stay within 35.

Game 8: Alabama (+9.5) vs. Florida
Pick: Florida covers.
Comment: This of course is the SEC Championship Game played at the Georgia Dome. What does it say that a 12-0 Alabama team is almost a double digit underdog in the SEC Championship Game? I think it says 2 things. 1: the SEC is way down this season; 2: the Gators are really, really good. Florida is without 2 of their interior defensive lineman for sure and could be without their stud playmaker Percy Harvin. Even if Harvin does play he still won’t be close to 100% one wouldn’t think. I don’t think this is going to be some all out rout. I think it will be competitive but eventually I think the Gators will end with at least 10 more points than Bama.

Game 9: USC (-33) @ UCLA
Pick: UCLA beats the spread.
Comment: This line has come down but it is still high. USC is dominant and UCLA has struggled, but they’ll be up for this game, especially now that USC has announced they will be wearing red jerseys and accepting a loss of a timeout in each half. I think the Trojans will win big but I don’t think they’ll score enough points to win by more than 33.

Game 10: Western Kentucky (+7) @ FIU
Pick: FIU covers.
Comment: WK will be playing for the first time in 21 days, while FIU is coming off a heartbreaking overtime defeat to rival Florida Atlantic. Western Kentucky is getting better but they are still 1-14 against FBS competition over the last 2 years and they are 0-9 against FBS teams this year. I’ll take Florida International to win by 10 or so.

Game 11: Arkansas State (+11) @ Troy
Pick: Troy covers.
Comment: Strangely, Troy went 11-4 at home the previous 3 years before this season but lost their home finale each year. They are just 2-6 all-time against Ark State but they won 27-0 on the road against the Red Wolves last year. Arkansas State won by just 5 points at North Texas last week while the Trojans were off. Before that Troy whipped ULL 48-3. I think Troy will win this game by at least 2 TD’s.

Game 12: Arizona State (+10.5) @ Arizona
Pick: ASU beats the spread.
Comment: Hmmm. This seems like a big spread. I know it has come against Washington, Washington State, and UCLA, but Arizona State has won their last 3 games by a combined 76 points. They’ve also won 5 of 6 against their rivals from Tucson. Arizona has lost 3 of their last 4. The Wildcats are coming off of a bye and you know they are hungry for a win against the Sun Devils, but if ASU could win this game it would almost—I say almost—save the season. The year would still end up being huge disappointment but if they can beat Arizona again and go to a bowl game it would be a whole lot better than the alternative. I think Arizona may win but not by double digits.

Game 13: Missouri (+16.5) vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma covers.
Comment: This of course is the anti-climactic Big XII Championship Game played in Kansas City. The Tigers were their last week and they lost 40-37 to Kansas. This is a rematch of last year’s championship game. Oklahoma had beaten Missouri by 10 points at home earlier in the year and they were only favored by 3 points going into the title game but they ended up winning 38-17. I doubt the score will be much closer this year, although some crazy things have happened in this championship game, and Oklahoma has had a habit of playing badly when the stakes are high. You never know, but I think they’ll crush Missouri.

Game 14: South Florida (+7) @ West Virginia
Pick: South Florida beats the spread.
Comment: Hard to believe that this game means absolutely nothing. South Florida has won the last 2 in this series. I think the Mountaineers will probably win this one but I think the Bulls will keep it within a touchdown.

Game 15: Cincinnati (-7.5) @ Hawaii
Pick: Cincinnati covers.
Comment: This is a very tricky game. Hawaii does not usually lose at home and certainly not by more than 7 points. Cincinnati has already clinched the Big East championship and a 10 win season, so you have to wonder if they’ll be focused. I definitely think they’ll win but I don’t think they’ll win easily. This is tough but I guess I’ll take the Bearcats.

Moneyline Specials

I went 6 for 24 against the spread last week but somehow I managed to go 2-1 in moneyline upsets, and I’ve now picked 7 of my last 9 moneyline upsets correctly. I’d like to pick 2 this week in hopes of finishing the regular season at .500 in moneyline picks but I only see 1.

Pittsburgh over Connecticut: Pitt is a 2.5 point underdog on the road against UConn this Saturday. These teams are very even and Connecticut will have the homefield advantage. The Huskies have won 3 of 4 over the Panthers but Pitt is 4-1 on the road this year. UConn is coming off of a bye, while the Panthers played last week, but Pitt will have an extra day off because they played on a Friday. I think it’ll be a close game but I just have a hunch that Pitt will come out on top.