The NFL Blog: Week 15 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (9-7); Straight Up (12-4)
Season: Vs. Spread (98-102-8); Straight Up (133-72-1)

Week 14 Review: It was another solid week for me last week, as I had a winning record against the spread and picked 12 of 16 winners correctly. My worst picks were the Giants and Jets covering but I think most people had problems picking those 2 games correctly.

Week 15 Preview: Well, this week is off to a bad start, as I didn’t get my picks in before the Thursday night game so I’m starting off with a loss. Other than that, I feel good about this week. There are some more large lines this week, including the biggest spread of the year. I’m hoping to come through with another solid week here at the end of the season.


Thursday’s Game

New Orleans (+3) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears cover.
Comment: I’m glad this game turned out to be a push because I didn’t get my pick in on time. I still won’t get credit for picking the winner right though.

Sunday’s Early Games

Tampa Bay (+3) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons cover.
Comment: The home team continues to dominate NFC South action. I realize that Matt Ryan and the Falcons will be facing a tough defense this Sunday and one that just got embarrassed on Monday Night Football, but I think they can handle it. The Bucs won the first game, 24-9, but that was in Tampa and that was in week 2. The Bucs have no explosive offensive weapons and, as we saw last Monday, the defense can be run on. I think the Falcons will win and it’s a field goal spread so I’ll just take them to cover.

Washington (-7) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Redskins win but Bengals beat the spread.
Comment: I know the Bengals suck but the Redskins are just not a team I feel comfortable picking to win by more than a TD on the road right now. They’ve lost 4 of 5 and they are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games. Plus, this week Clinton Portis caused turmoil with his negative comments about Jim Zorn. I’m not going to pick the Bengals to win but I don’t think Washington will win by more than a TD.

Tennessee (-3) @ Houston
Pick: Titans cover.
Comment: Both of these teams could suffer a let down this week. Houston has won 3 straight but they are now out of playoff contention. The Titans are 12-1 but they have a 2 game lead on the rest of the AFC. Houston is very tough at home but the Titans have yet to lose on the road this year. You could go either way in this game but I’ll take Tennessee. The Titans won the first matchup between these two teams, 31-12, and I’m going to take them to win this game by a TD or so.

Detroit (+17) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Lions beat the spread.
Comment: This is the biggest spread of the year in the NFL. The Colts have won 6 straight and the Lions are now 0-12 on the season. Still, 17 points is a huge spread, and I just can’t go with the Colts to win by over 17. I think they’ll win by two TD’s or so but not by 18 plus.

Green Bay (-1) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Packers cover.
Comment: It’s tough to put much faith in either of these teams right now. The Packers are virtually out of the playoffs and the Jags have been for weeks. I’m going to go with Green Bay because I think they are the better team and the team with more pride.

San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chargers win but Chiefs beat the spread.
Comment: The Chargers are still barley alive and the Chiefs continue to lose, but this was a 1 point game when it was played in SD earlier this year. I think the Chargers will win it but I think they’ll make it interesting as usual.

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Miami
Pick: Dolphins win but Niners beat the spread.
Comment: This is one of the toughest games on the week 15 slate to predict. San Fran has been playing much better lately but they have to go across country for this one. I’ll take the Dolphins to win but by less than a TD.

Buffalo (+9) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets win but Bills beat the spread.
Comment: The Bills have been awful lately but I think they’ll be competitive against the slumping Jets. I’ll take the Jets to win but not by double digits.

Seattle (-1) @ St. Louis
Pick: Seahawks cover.
Comment: As bad as the Seahawks have been, they’ve still been much more competitive than St. Louis. I think Seattle wins this one easily.

Sunday’s Late Games

Minnesota (+3) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals cover.
Comment: Arizona has clinched the division title but they still have something to play for. They’re tough to beat at home and now the Vikings will have to play with Tarvaris Jackson at QB. I like the Cardinals to win and it’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take them to cover.

New England (-7) @ Oakland
Pick: Patriots cover.
Comment: The injuries continue to pile up for New England. They’re only 1-3 in their last 4 games ATS but Oakland is god awful. I have to go with the Patriots to win this one by at least 8 or 9.

Pittsburgh (+3) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens win but Steelers beat the spread.
Comment: For me, this game is about even, so I have to hedge. I’ll take the Ravens to win by a point or two.

Denver (+9) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers win but Broncos beat the spread.
Comment: The Broncos lost yet another running back last week, while Carolina played its most impressive game of the year, dismantling Tampa Bay on MNF. The Panthers should win this game but I don’t see them winning by double digits.

Sunday Night’s Game

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas
Pick: Giants pull off the upset.
Comment: The Giants will be without Brandon Jacobs again and the Cowboys need this game more than they do but I still don’t think the G-Men will lose 2 in a row. I like New York to pull this one out and send T.O. and the Cowgirls on a downward spiral out of the playoffs.

Monday Night’s Game

Cleveland (+14) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles win but Browns beat the spread.
Comment: This seems like a really big spread, considering the fact that the Eagles tied Cincinnati at home just a few weeks ago. I’ll take Philly to win easily but not by more than 2 TD’s.