Tuesday, December 30, 2008

The NFL Blog: Wild Card Round Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (8-7-1); Straight Up (12-4)
Season: Vs. Spread (121-124-11); Straight Up (161-92-1)

Week 17 Review: I had a decent week in the final week of the regular season, going 12-4 straight up and getting a winning record ATS. But it wasn’t enough to give me a .500 record for the season ATS.

Wild Card Round Preview: This is a pretty weird Wild Card Round of the playoffs isn’t it? Not one of the 4 home teams is favored. Not one of them! That’s bizarre. I’m nervous about picking 3 road teams to win but that happened in 2004 and 2005. The AFC games are tough because all 4 teams come into the game on hot streaks. In the NFC, the visiting teams are clearly the hot teams but the Cardinals are a bit of a mystery. It should be a very interesting weekend of games.


Saturday’s Late Day Game

Atlanta (-1) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals pull off the upset.
Comment: Man I sure had my heart set on that division title. I just knew it was going to happen. It’s unbelievable how different the Falcons’ road became when John Kasay hit that kick. The Falcons are a 1 point favorite in this one despite being on the road and a lot of people seem to think the Falcons will have no problem winning this game. Mark Bradley wrote a big article in the AJC about how going to Arizona to play the Cardinals is a perfect draw for the Falcons. I wish I saw it that way. I’m really, really concerned. Yes, I’ve doubted the Falcs most of the way this season but I really don’t feel like my feelings are based on trying to protect myself from disappointment in this situation. The Falcons couldn’t possible disappoint me at this point, provided that nobody gets arrested for soliciting prostitution from an undercover cop the night before the game or kills any dogs. I just don’t think playing the Cards at Arizona is a good matchup for us. I’ve got a lot more to say on the subject but that’s more for the Falcons Blog. But there are a few main points. For one thing, the Falcons will have to travel. They are 7-1 at home; 4-4 on the road. They are 8-2 indoors; 3-3 on grass. The Cards are 3-5 on the road; 6-2 at home. The next big issue is Arizona’s passing attack against the Atlanta defense. The Falcons defense has had some major issues defending the pass. Arizona is the worst rushing team in the League, but the Falcons have struggled to stop the run against teams such as the Saints and the Rams recently, teams that didn’t run well all year. On the other side of the ball, Arizona is solid against the run which is obviously Atlanta’s biggest strength. If they take the run away it will be up to rookie QB Matt Ryan to play a great game. While Ryan has been tremendous this season, his play has undeniably dropped off in the last few weeks. It could be that he’s hitting that rookie wall that they talk about. Arizona has a very opportunistic defense and Matty has not been very good about taking care of the ball in recent weeks. Then there are the Atlanta injury issues. If Lawyer Milloy can not play for the Falcons I think it will be a huge loss. Obviously if John Abraham isn’t going at 100% the Falcons will get picked apart by Kurt Warner and his 3 one thousand yard receivers. You can say that the Falcons have been playing better as of late, but it’s hard to know what to make of the finishes by either team. Obviously the Falcons have been doing something right, as they won their last 3 games and 5 of their final 6. But they haven’t really been firing on all cylinders since the Carolina game in week 12. Arizona was embarrassed in weeks 15 and 16 but how much of that had to do with the fact that they had clinched the division so early? And then there’s the issue of psyche. The Cards are going into this thing with no one believing in them. The Falcons are suddenly a team that many people are expecting to win. This will be a new thing for them. Handling expectations can be tough. I believe the Falcons can win this game and it wouldn’t shock me because they have gotten the job done so many times this year. But I just wouldn’t bet on it. I don’t think we’ll be able to slow Warner and the Cards offense down enough. I think Arizona will win and the dream will end. But I hope I’m wrong.

Saturday’s Night Game

Indianapolis (-1) @ San Diego
Pick: Colts cover.
Comment: This is the one I’m least certain about. Both teams come into this game hot but when it comes to these two teams, how much does that really matter? In 2005, the Colts went 14-2, and then they went out and lost at home in the divisional round to the #6 seed Steelers as a 10.5 point favorite. In 2006, the Colts started out 9-0 but then went 3-4 in their final 7 games and their defense looked helplessly awful against the run. They lost the first round bye and home field advantage, entering the playoffs as a #3 seed, but they ended up winning the Super Bowl. Last year the Colts were that team that “nobody wants to play.” They had won 6 straight until playing their reserves in a meaningless game against the Titans in the final week of the year that they lost to finish 13-3. Then they lost at home in the divisional round to the Chargers as a 10 point favorite. My point is that I’m not sure it’s definitely a good thing that the Colts are going into this thing as one of the popular “picks to click.” The Chargers were on a roll going into the playoffs in 2004, 2006, and 2007. In those first 2 years they lost as a home favorite in their first playoff game. Last year they won their first two games and then played the Patriots very tight in the AFC Championship Game despite some serious injuries. So I don’t know what it means that the Chargers are on a roll going into the playoffs. The Chargers have the home field advantage, but again, I’m just not sure how much that really matters in this case. The Chargers have lost 3 times at home this season, including once to the Colts, and Indy is 6-2 on the road. The Chargers have lost at home in the playoffs and the Colts have won on the road in the playoffs. I think the Chargers are playing their best right now but I still don’t think they’re as good as the team that beat the Colts on the road in the divisional round last year. I was starting to think that LT was rounding into form just in time for the postseason but then he missed the entire second half last week with a groin injury. I think Phillip Rivers will be able to throw on the Colts but I also think the Colts will be able to pressure him at times. Indy has no running game but I don’t think they’ll need it against San Diego, the worst team defending the pass in the entire NFL. This was a tight game in the regular season and I think it’ll be close this week too. But in the end I like the Colts to come out on top.

Sunday’s Early Game

Baltimore (-3) @ Miami
Pick: Ravens cover.
Comment: This game seems like the easiest to predict to me. Of course that means nothing, but honestly, there aren’t a lot of arguments to be made in favor of the Dolphins winning this game. They have just gotten it done over and over again this year and perhaps they will do that again this week. They are at home and Baltimore’s QB is a rookie. Other than that, all signs point to Baltimore in my opinion. The Dolphins have won 5 straight and 9 of 10, but most of those wins have been unimpressive victories over mediocre or below mediocre teams. Baltimore has won 9 of 11 and most of their wins have been very impressive victories over better than average teams. In week 7, the Ravens went to Miami and won 27-13. Now, the Dolphins began their 9-1 stretch immediately after that game, but I still think that first game is a good hint of what will happen this weekend. The Ravens defense is very difficult to do anything against and the offense won’t need to do much to score enough points to win. The Ravens went 5-3 on the road this year and those losses were to the Steelers in OT and to the Colts and Giants. Not exactly the 3 worst teams in the League. The Dolphins lost 3 times at home this season, including to the Ravens in week 7. I think the Dolphins will keep it very respectable but I like the Ravens to win by at least a touchdown.

Sunday’s Late Day Game

Philadelphia (-3) @ Minnesota
Pick: Eagles cover.
Comment: I definitely like the Eagles to win this game but I think it will be very close and it could very well be decided by exactly 3 points. However, I think there’s more of a chance of the Eagles winning by 4 or more than there is of the Vikings coming within 2 points or better. I’m sure Adrian Peterson will have some success running the ball like always but the Vikings will have to ask Tavaris Jackson to throw the ball occasionally. When that happens, I believe Jim Johnson’s defense will force him into mistakes. Remember, Brad Childress is former Eagle offensive coach, Johnson probably knows his offensive game plan inside and out. The Vikings say Pat Williams is going to try to play but I don’t know how much he can really do with a broken shoulder. The Eagles are pretty healthy on offense right now and I think they’ll be able to do a lot against Minnesota’s defense even if Williams is in there all game. The Eagles are just 3-4-1 on the road this year and the Vikings are 6-2 at home. But I don’t think playing at the Metrodome will be enough to get the Vikings a win against the Eagles.

No comments: