The NFL Blog: Week 16 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (8-6-2); Straight Up (9-7)
Season: Vs. Spread (106-108-10); Straight Up (142-79-1)

Week 15 Review: Last week was one of mixed results for me. I was once again over .500 against the spread but I went just 9-7 straight up. Of course I would have been 10-6 straight up if I had gotten my picks in on time but whatever.

Week 16 Preview: This is an interesting week because there are not a lot of big spreads. The end of the year is tough because you have to gauge what teams will be giving max effort and which teams won’t be for various reasons. I’m feeling the pressure because I’ve only got two weeks left to get to .500 ATS.


Thursday’s Game

Indianapolis (-6) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Colts win but Jags beat the spread.
Comment: This week I’m at least going to have a shot at the Thursday night game. The Colts have clearly been one of the hottest teams in the NFL, having won 7 straight, while the Jags just snapped a 4 game losing streak with a win over the Packers last week. The Colts haven’t wrapped up a playoff spot yet so they should be up for this game but they are quite banged up at the moment and the short week won’t help. I think the Colts will win by 3 or 4.

Saturday’s Game

Baltimore (+4) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Ravens beat the spread.
Comment: This is a huge game for both teams. The Cowboys are coming off a big win over the Giants at home, while the Ravens are coming off a controversial heartbreaking loss at home to the Steelers. Both teams really need to win this game. I think it will go down to the wire and I’ll take the Cowboys to win by a field goal since they have the home field advantage.

Sunday’s Early Games

Cincinnati (+3) @ Cleveland
Pick: Browns win but Bengals beat the spread.
Comment: This is an awful game. I have to hedge my bet here because the Browns should win at home but they looked pretty awful on Monday night with Ken Dorsey running the offense. I’ll take the Browns to win on a missed extra point.

New Orleans (-7) @ Detroit
Pick: Saints win but Lions beat the spread.
Comment: As someone who has been pulling hard all year long for the Lions to go winless, I am pretty nervous about this game. The Saints have struggled on the road this year and now they are out of the playoff hunt and without Reggie Bush. They’ve allowed their offensive coordinator to go ahead and begin his next job as Syracuse’s head coach. They may not be up for this game and the Lions most certainly will be. The Lions do not want to go 0-16 and they’ve beaten the spread in the last 2 weeks. I think they’ll keep it close once again but in the end I think (hope) they’ll come up short for a 15th time.


Miami (-4) @ Kansas City
Pick: Dolphins win but Chiefs beat the spread.
Comment: Wow, the Chiefs are the hard luck team of the NFL. Each week they find a new way to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are never very impressive but they keep winning. The Fish are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. I see another close loss for the Chiefs and another close win for the Dolphins this Sunday.

Arizona (+9) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Cardinals beat the spread.
Comment: I guess the Cardinals didn’t care whether they were the #3 or #4 seed. I do think they’ll want to have a better showing this week. The Patriots obviously need this game more but I could see them struggling to contain the Cardinal offense. I think the Pats will win but 9 points is too much.

San Francisco (-5.5) @ St. Louis
Pick: Niners win but Rams beat the spread.
Comment: Another bad matchup. San Fran is playing a lot better lately and I think they’ll win this Sunday but the Rams should be able to keep it close at home.

Pittsburgh (-1) @ Tennessee
Pick: Steelers cover.
Comment: This is a biggie and I’m not sure who to pick. The Titans have the home field edge but they have some major injury concerns. The Steelers have the momentum. I’ll take Pittsburgh to win and take control of the AFC.

San Diego (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Bucs win but Chargers beat the spread.
Comment: How is that the Chargers still seem to be playing without a sense of urgency? The Bucs have some major injury concerns but I think they’ll pull this one out late.

Sunday’s Late Games

Buffalo (+7) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos win but Bills beat the spread.
Comment: At least the Bills should have Trent Edwards back for this game. The Broncos may know they are in the playoffs during the early part of this game, depending on what the Chargers do in Tampa Bay. Either way, the Broncos are 1-7-1 ATS as a favorite this year. I think they’ll win but by less than a TD.

Houston (-7) @ Oakland
Pick: Texans cover.
Comment: You can count on the Texans being a trendy pick to make the postseason next year if they finish out the season on a 6 game win streak. They are 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games and they’ve won 2 in a row on the road. The Raiders have lost their last two games by a combined 50 points. I’ll take the Texans to win by more than a TD.

New York Jets (-5) @ Seattle
Pick: Jets win but Seahawks beat the spread.
Comment: You cannot be feeling all that confident right now if you’re a Jets fan. They are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games and 0-3 on the west coast this year (losses at San Diego, Oakland, and San Fran). The Seahawks are 5-3-1 ATS in their last 9 games. I think the Jets will eke out a win but I think the Seahawks will make it very close.

Philadelphia (-5) @ Washington
Pick: Eagles cover.
Comment: These two teams are traveling in opposite directions. The Eagles are soaring, while the Skins are sinking. I think that will continue this Sunday. I see the Eagles winning by at least a TD.

Atlanta (+3.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover.
Comment: I’m torn on this one because I want to believe that the Falcons are going to go up to Minnesota and get it done. They stand a much better chance of pulling it off now that Pat Williams is out for Minnesota. But the Vikings have won 6 of 7 and I just don’t have a good feeling about this game. I hope the Falcons can win because their postseason chances are likely sunk otherwise, but I can’t bet on it happening.

Sunday Night’s Game

Carolina (+3) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover.
Comment: I’m sorry but I just don’t see the G-Men losing 3 straight. They should get Brandon Jacobs back and I think they’ll pull away late in this one and lockup the #1 seed in the NFC.

Monday Night’s Game

Green Bay (+4) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears cover.
Comment: Earlier this year the Bears got spanked by the Packers in Green Bay, 37-3. Since then, the Bears are 3-1, while the Packers are 0-4. I see the Bears winning by double digits in the final Monday Night Football game of the year.