The College Football Blog: Week 15 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (6-18); Moneyline Upsets (2-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (64-89-1); Moneyline Upsets (17-19)

Week 14 Review: Wow. Okay, so that did not go well. I tried to get my record back close to .500 all in one big week and ended up picking 25% correct against the spread. I had Mississippi State beating a 13 point spread (they lost 45-0); Fresno State beating a 17 point spread (they lost 61-10); South Carolina beating a 1 point spread (they lost 31-14); Missouri covering a 13 point spread (they lost 40-37); and Oregon State covering a 3 point spread (they lost 65-38). Those were just some of the main lowlights but there were others. It couldn’t have gone all that much worse.

Week 15 Preview: Well, it’s the final week of the regular season and I’m currently at rock bottom. I hope. If I went 15 for 15 this week I’d still be 10 games under .500. Here goes nothing.

Wednesday

Game 1: Middle Tennessee State (+5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette
Pick: ULL covers.
Comment: The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost 3 straight by at least 11 points, while the Blue Raiders have won 3 straight. However, MTS’ last 2 games were against Western Kentucky and North Texas, while ULL played UTEP at home and then played at FAU and Troy. MTS is 1-5 on the road this year and their only road win was at WK. I’ll take ULL to win by 6 or 7.

Thursday

Game 2: Louisville (+10) @ Rutgers
Pick: Rutgers covers.
Comment: This is a battle of two teams going in opposite directions. Since starting the year 0-5 against FBS teams, Rutgers has won 5 straight. Louisville started off 5-2 but has since lost 4 in a row. Rutgers has won each of their last 4 games by at least 18 points and I think they’ll whip the Cardinals by at least 2 touchdowns.

Friday

Game 3: Buffalo (+15) vs. Ball State
Pick: Ball State covers.
Comment: This is the MAC Championship Game in Detroit and it will be the first time either team has played in the conference championship game. The Bulls finally ran out of luck last week when they lost at home to a Kent State team that came into the game 2-8 vs. FBS competition. While both Buffalo and Ball State have been good stories this year, one team has had a significantly greater year. The Bulls are 7-5 and they could be 10-2 with losses only to Pitt and Mizzu on the road. On the other hand, the Bulls could easily be 3-9. They’ve played an inordinate amount of close games, with 4 of 12 games going into OT and 3 other games being decided by 3 points or less. They are 3-1 in OT and they also won by 2 over Temple on a Hail Mary at the buzzer. While there is certainly a “magical” feel to Buffalo’s season, they’ve been no where near as good as Ball State. BSU is 12-0 and they’ve won each game by at least 7 points and 11 of their 12 wins have been by at least 12 points. 15 points is a big spread but if you look at the 5 common opponents between these two teams, BSU has a huge edge. I’ll take them to win by 21 or so.

Saturday

Game 4: East Carolina (+13.5) @ Tulsa
Pick: Tulsa covers.
Comment: This is the Conference USA Championship Game but it’s just another home game for Tulsa and they are 16-2 at home over the last 3 years, with one of the two losses coming in OT and the other against Oklahoma. The Pirates have basically squeaked by since their 2-0 start. I’ll take the Golden Hurricane by 2 TD’s or more.

Game 5: Navy (-11) vs. Army
Pick: Navy covers.
Comment: This one is played in Philadelphia. As intense of a rivalry as this one is, it really hasn’t been close lately. Navy has won 6 straight by double digits. Army is better this year and Navy isn’t quite as good. The Black Knights got off to a horrendous start, losing their first 3 games to Temple (35-7), New Hampshire (28-10), and Akron (22-3) all at home. Since then they are 3-5 but some of their losses have been respectable. Still, I think Navy will definitely win by double digits and probably by more than 11.

Game 6: Boston College (Pick) vs. Virginia Tech
Pick: Boston College covers.
Comment: This of course is the ACC Championship Game played in Tampa. If BC’s quarterback wasn’t hurt this would be an easy pick. Even without him, I’ll still take BC. They’ve won 4 straight and they beat VT by 5 at home earlier this year. Personally, I’m not at all impressed by VT. I think the Eagles win.

Game 7: Washington (+35.5) @ Cal
Pick: Washington beats the spread.
Comment: You know, when I looked things over, I realized this spread was probably about right, but it’s still ridiculous. I’ve got to think the Huskies will be more up for this one than the Bears, as this is their last chance to get a win and avoid finishing the season winless. I think Cal will win by 28 or 30 but I’ll take Washington to stay within 35.

Game 8: Alabama (+9.5) vs. Florida
Pick: Florida covers.
Comment: This of course is the SEC Championship Game played at the Georgia Dome. What does it say that a 12-0 Alabama team is almost a double digit underdog in the SEC Championship Game? I think it says 2 things. 1: the SEC is way down this season; 2: the Gators are really, really good. Florida is without 2 of their interior defensive lineman for sure and could be without their stud playmaker Percy Harvin. Even if Harvin does play he still won’t be close to 100% one wouldn’t think. I don’t think this is going to be some all out rout. I think it will be competitive but eventually I think the Gators will end with at least 10 more points than Bama.

Game 9: USC (-33) @ UCLA
Pick: UCLA beats the spread.
Comment: This line has come down but it is still high. USC is dominant and UCLA has struggled, but they’ll be up for this game, especially now that USC has announced they will be wearing red jerseys and accepting a loss of a timeout in each half. I think the Trojans will win big but I don’t think they’ll score enough points to win by more than 33.

Game 10: Western Kentucky (+7) @ FIU
Pick: FIU covers.
Comment: WK will be playing for the first time in 21 days, while FIU is coming off a heartbreaking overtime defeat to rival Florida Atlantic. Western Kentucky is getting better but they are still 1-14 against FBS competition over the last 2 years and they are 0-9 against FBS teams this year. I’ll take Florida International to win by 10 or so.

Game 11: Arkansas State (+11) @ Troy
Pick: Troy covers.
Comment: Strangely, Troy went 11-4 at home the previous 3 years before this season but lost their home finale each year. They are just 2-6 all-time against Ark State but they won 27-0 on the road against the Red Wolves last year. Arkansas State won by just 5 points at North Texas last week while the Trojans were off. Before that Troy whipped ULL 48-3. I think Troy will win this game by at least 2 TD’s.

Game 12: Arizona State (+10.5) @ Arizona
Pick: ASU beats the spread.
Comment: Hmmm. This seems like a big spread. I know it has come against Washington, Washington State, and UCLA, but Arizona State has won their last 3 games by a combined 76 points. They’ve also won 5 of 6 against their rivals from Tucson. Arizona has lost 3 of their last 4. The Wildcats are coming off of a bye and you know they are hungry for a win against the Sun Devils, but if ASU could win this game it would almost—I say almost—save the season. The year would still end up being huge disappointment but if they can beat Arizona again and go to a bowl game it would be a whole lot better than the alternative. I think Arizona may win but not by double digits.

Game 13: Missouri (+16.5) vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma covers.
Comment: This of course is the anti-climactic Big XII Championship Game played in Kansas City. The Tigers were their last week and they lost 40-37 to Kansas. This is a rematch of last year’s championship game. Oklahoma had beaten Missouri by 10 points at home earlier in the year and they were only favored by 3 points going into the title game but they ended up winning 38-17. I doubt the score will be much closer this year, although some crazy things have happened in this championship game, and Oklahoma has had a habit of playing badly when the stakes are high. You never know, but I think they’ll crush Missouri.

Game 14: South Florida (+7) @ West Virginia
Pick: South Florida beats the spread.
Comment: Hard to believe that this game means absolutely nothing. South Florida has won the last 2 in this series. I think the Mountaineers will probably win this one but I think the Bulls will keep it within a touchdown.

Game 15: Cincinnati (-7.5) @ Hawaii
Pick: Cincinnati covers.
Comment: This is a very tricky game. Hawaii does not usually lose at home and certainly not by more than 7 points. Cincinnati has already clinched the Big East championship and a 10 win season, so you have to wonder if they’ll be focused. I definitely think they’ll win but I don’t think they’ll win easily. This is tough but I guess I’ll take the Bearcats.

Moneyline Specials

I went 6 for 24 against the spread last week but somehow I managed to go 2-1 in moneyline upsets, and I’ve now picked 7 of my last 9 moneyline upsets correctly. I’d like to pick 2 this week in hopes of finishing the regular season at .500 in moneyline picks but I only see 1.

Pittsburgh over Connecticut: Pitt is a 2.5 point underdog on the road against UConn this Saturday. These teams are very even and Connecticut will have the homefield advantage. The Huskies have won 3 of 4 over the Panthers but Pitt is 4-1 on the road this year. UConn is coming off of a bye, while the Panthers played last week, but Pitt will have an extra day off because they played on a Friday. I think it’ll be a close game but I just have a hunch that Pitt will come out on top.