The College Football Blog: Bowl Season Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (9-6); Moneyline Upsets (1-0)
Season: Vs. Spread (73-95-1); Moneyline Upsets (18-19)

Week 15 Review: Well, I ended the season on a positive note but it was slightly too little too late.

Bowls Preview: These bowl games may not be that exciting but they’re tough to predict against the spread. I’m hoping to go .500, or if I’m really lucky, a game or 2 over .500. For the bowl games I’m going to pick the winner and ATS for each game.

December 20th

EagleBank Bowl: Navy (+3) vs. Wake Forrest
Pick: Navy pulls off the upset.
Comment: This one is a rematch of a week 5 game at WF that Navy won 24-17. After losing by double digits to Ball State and Duke to fall to 1-2, Navy went 7-2 in their final 9 games, losing only to Pitt and ND. Wake started the year 3-0 but went just 4-5 the rest of the way. I’m going to go with Navy in this one because they won the first time.

New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State (-3) vs. Colorado State
Pick: Colorado State pulls off the upset.
Comment: This is one of the worst matchups of the entire bowl season. I really don’t have much of a clue about this game. All I know is that I’ve seen Fresno State play 6 or 7 times this year and they’ve almost always disappointed me. Colorado State lost 6 games but they didn’t have any “bad” losses to terrible teams. I’m going with CSU to win this one.

St. Petersburg Bowl: Memphis (+12.5) vs. South Florida
Pick: South Florida wins but Memphis beats the spread.
Comment: South Florida has a huge advantage in location in this game because their campus is right around the corner. Memphis is barley an average team but South Florida has been pretty mediocre as well lately. I think Memphis is the biggest long shot to win out of any bowl team but I think they’ll stay within 12 points.

Las Vegas Bowl: BYU (+3) vs. Arizona
Pick: BYU pulls off the upset.
Comment: These teams played against each other in the first game of the season in 2006 and 2007. These two teams shared 3 common opponents: New Mexico, UCLA, and Washington. Arizona lost at NM, 28-36; BYU beat NM at home, 21-3. Arizona won at UCLA, 31-10; BYU beat UCLA at home, 59-0. Arizona beat Washington at home, 48-14; BYU won at Washington, 28-27. I think this will be a very close game but I like BYU to pull it out late to win their 3rd straight Las Vegas Bowl.

December 21st

New Orleans Bowl: Troy (-4.5) vs. Southern Mississippi
Pick: Troy wins but Southern Miss beats the spread.
Comment: Southern Miss won their last 4 games of the season and won the New Orleans Bowl in 2004 and 2005. Troy won the 2006 New Orleans Bowl. These two teams had 2 common opponents: Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State. Southern Miss beat ULL at home, 51-21, and beat Arkansas State on the road, 27-24. Troy beat ULL at home, 48-3, and beat Arkansas State at home, 35-9. I like Troy to win for sure but I think it will be close.

December 23rd

Poinsettia Bowl: TCU (-2.5) vs. Boise State
Pick: TCU covers.
Comment: This is one of the better matchups of the entire bowl season. TCU has won 3 straight bowl games, including the 2006 Poinsettia. It seems to me that when a great offense goes up against a great defense, the defense normally prevails. That’s why I’m taking TCU to come out on top in a classic.

December 24th

Hawaii Bowl: Notre Dame (+1) vs. Hawaii
Pick: Hawaii covers.
Comment: This line has shrunk for some reason. I think Hawaii should be a bigger favorite. They’re playing at home and their fans will be fired up. I watch the Warriors play Cincinnati in the final game of the season and they had the Bearcats beaten until a tipped ball interception for a TD turned the game on its ear. Hawaii has won the last 3 Hawaii Bowls they played in. ND has lost 9 straight bowl games. I see the Irish losing number 10 in a row to Hawaii to finish the season with a losing record.

December 26th

Motor City Bowl: Florida Atlantic (+7) vs. Central Michigan
Pick: Central Michigan covers.
Comment: FAU was supposed to be the class of the Sun Belt and Central Michigan was supposed to be the class of the MAC. Neither team lived up to those expectations but CM came much closer than FAU. The Chippewas will obviously have a big location advantage. This will be their 3rd straight trip to the Motor City Bowl. In 2006, they beat Middle Tennessee State, 31-14. Last year they lost to Purdue, 51-48. I think they’ll beat FAU by double digits.

December 27th

Meineke Car Care Bowl: West Virginia (Pick) vs. UNC
Pick: West Virginia covers.
Comment: After getting off to a 7-2 start, injuries finally caught up to the Heels as they lost to Maryland and NC State. West Virginia has been inconsistent all season. UNC might benefit from time off but they’ll still be without some key players. WV could be without Noel Devine if his grades aren’t up to snuff. That would be a huge loss but they’ll still have Pat White playing in his final game. The Mountaineers have won 3 straight bowl games over the last 3 years. I like West Virginia to win one of the better matchups of the bowl season.

Champs Sports Bowl: Wisconsin (+5) vs. Florida State
Pick: FSU covers.
Comment: This seems like a mismatch to me but you never know with Florida State. They could lose 10 or 12 players to a cheating scandal or a campus brawl between now and the day of the game. Barring such an occurrence, I think FSU will win this one easily.

Emerald Bowl: Miami (+7.5) vs. Cal
Pick: Cal covers.
Comment: Cal has a big location advantage obviously and they have won 3 straight bowl games. This spread seems a little large and I don’t think it will be a blowout. I see Cal pulling a way late and winning by 8 or 9.

December 28th

Independence Bowl: Northern Illinois (-1.5) vs. Louisiana Tech
Pick: Louisiana Tech pulls off the upset.
Comment: This has to be one of the worst bowl matchups of all time. LT has the location advantage. The Bulldogs had won 4 straight before losing to Nevada at home, 35-31, in the final game of the year. NIU lost 3 of their last 4, including a 16-0 loss to Navy at home in the season finale. I’ll take LT to win due to the location.

December 29th

Papa Johns Bowl: NC State (+8.5) vs. Rutgers
Pick: Rutgers wins but NC State beats the spread.
Comment: This line seems way too big. These two teams were among the hottest in the country at the end of the year. NC State won their last 4 games to get eligible after starting out 2-6. Rutgers got off to a nightmarish start, losing 5 of their first 6 games before closing on a 6 game win streak. I think Rutgers will win this one but I think it will be a close game.

Alamo Bowl: Northwestern (+12) vs. Missouri
Pick: Missouri wins but Northwestern beats the spread.
Comment: This is one of the biggest spreads of the bowl season. But NW should be the team that is more excited to be there. Missouri’s offensive coordinator was hired to be the new coach of Wyoming but he will stay on to coach in this game. That could be a negative for the Tigers. I think this game will be closer than most expect. Missouri began the year beating Illinois, 52-42, in St. Louis. Northwestern ended the season beating Illinois at home, 27-10. I think Mizzu will win but I have to take 12 points.

December 30th

Humanitarian Bowl: Nevada (-1.5) vs. Maryland
Pick: Maryland pulls off the upset.
Comment: Booorrriiing!!! Nevada will have the location advantage. Last season Maryland went out to SF for the Emerald Bowl and lost to Oregon State. Nevada lost 23-0 to New Mexico in last year’s New Mexico Bowl. Maryland’s defensive coordinator has taken the DC position at Kansas State. The Terps were inconsistent all year long and they ended the year losing 3 of 4. Nevada won 3 of their last 4, with the only loss coming to Boise State by 7 at home. I’ve gotten burned by Nevada in the last two bowl seasons so I’m taking Maryland to win.

Texas Bowl: Western Michigan (+3) vs. Rice
Pick: Rice covers.
Comment: Clearly Rice has a major location advantage. The Owls finished the season on a 6 game win streak and they were 6-0 at home this year. WM did not have a bad loss this year. I’m taking Rice to win by 7 or so because I think they’re at least as good as the Broncos and they are playing in their home town.

Holiday Bowl: Oregon (+3) vs. Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State wins but Oregon beats the spread.
Comment: This is a tough one to call and one of the better matchups of the bowl season. Oregon finished the season strong, while Oklahoma State got blown out twice in November. Oklahoma State’s DC was hired as Toledo’s next head coach. I think Oklahoma State is the better team so I’m going to pick them to win but I think it’ll be really close.

December 31st

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force (+3) vs. Houston
Pick: Air Force pulls off the upset.
Comment: Pretty boring. This is another rematch. Houston has the obvious location advantage but they lost at home to Air Force, 31-28, in week 3 of the season. The Cougars are 0-4 in their last 4 bowl games (all since 2003) and they lost the 2005 Fort Worth Bowl to Kansas, 42-13. Air Force went 5-1 on the road this year. Last year they lost the Armed Forces Bowl to Cal, 42-36. I’m going to take Air Force to win based on their victory at Houston in September.

Sun Bowl: Pittsburgh (+3) vs. Oregon State
Pick: Oregon State wins but Pitt beats the spread.
Comment: This one is really tough to call. What makes me really unsure about this game is the fact that both of the Rodgers brothers will likely miss the game for the Beavers. That’s a huge blow. I would have taken Oregon State to cover but not without the Rodgers Brothers. The Beavers have won 4 straight bowl games (all since 2003) and I still think they’ll beat Pitt but it should go down to the wire.

Music City Bowl: Boston College (-3.5) vs. Vanderbilt
Pick: BC covers.
Comment: Yes, Vandy has the clear location advantage. Yes, they’re probably the more excited team. And yes, BC will be going with their backup QB again. But no, Vandy will not win this game. Vandy lost 6 of their last 7 games, including their last 3 at home. They lost to Mississippi State on the road and to Duke and Tennessee at home. BC had won 4 straight before losing to VT in the ACC Title Game. The Eagles won by 3 at Wake Forrest in week 13, and the Dores lost at WF by 13 in week 14. Vandy hasn’t played in a bowl game since 1982 and they haven’t won a bowl game since 1955. BC has won a bowl game 8 years in a row. BC should win by double digits.

Insight Bowl: Minnesota (+10) vs. Kansas
Pick: Kansas covers.
Comment: Boring. This is a matchup of frauds. Kansas finally did something relevant this year, upsetting Missouri at Arrowhead Stadium in the final game of the year. Minnesota lost their last 4 games, 3 of them at home, including a 55-0 loss to Iowa at home in the season finale. The Gophers lost the 2006 Insight Bowl to Texas Tech, 44-41 in overtime, suffering the largest come-from-ahead defeat in bowl history. I think Kansas will blow Minnesota out.

Chick-fil-a Bowl: LSU (+4) vs. Georgia Tech
Pick: GT wins but LSU beats the spread.
Comment: LSU had a pitiful end to the season, while Tech finished the season peaking. The Tigers could get run over by Tech’s option attack. The Jackets will be the more excited team and you would think they would have a huge location advantage, but LSU beat Tech in this bowl in 2000 and they are 4-0 in this bowl all-time. LSU is 3-0 in bowl games under Les Miles. I think the Tigers will keep it respectable but I think Tech will win it in the end.

January 1st

Outback Bowl: Iowa (-3.5) vs. South Carolina
Pick: Iowa wins but South Carolina beats the spread.
Comment: Iowa won 5 of their last 6 games and their 4 losses this season were by a combined 12 points. SC’s last two games of the season were complete disasters, as they lost 56-6 at Florida and 31-14 at Clemson. Now they will be without their star safety Emanuel Cook. I think the Gamecocks will put up a bit of a fight but I think Iowa will win.

Capital One Bowl: Michigan State (+7.5) vs. Georgia
Pick: Georgia wins but Michigan State beats the spread.
Comment: This spread is way too big. The Dawgs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. I expect Georgia to win but I think it will be close.

Gator Bowl: Clemson (-2.5) vs. Nebraska
Pick: Clemson wins but Nebraska beats the spread.
Comment: I’m hedging my bets here. Clemson’s DC resigned in the wake of Dabo Swinney being named full-time head coach. The Tigers won 4 of their last 5 games. Nebraska came very close to losing to Colorado in the season finale, but they ended up winning to finish the year 5-1 in their last 6 games. This should be a good game. I’ll take Clemson to win a close one.

Rose Bowl: Penn State (+9.5) vs. USC
Pick: USC wins but Penn State beats the spread.
Comment: This is the best of the BCS matchups. A lot of people are assuming that USC will win in a route the way they usually do in the Rose Bowl, but I don’t think so. I think Penn State was won of the better teams in the country this year, and while USC has a dominant defense and a talented roster, I don’t think they have the offense to blowout PSU. And now their offensive coordinator is off to take the head coaching job in Washington. Penn State has won 3 straight bowl games. Also, PSU won 45-14 over Oregon State in week 2; USC lost 27-21 to Oregon State in week 5.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (+2) vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati covers.
Comment: Obviously this is the least interesting BCS game, although it may end up being the most competitive. Cinci finished the year on a 6 game win streak but they could easily have lost the season finale in Hawaii and star receiver Dominick Goodman suffered an injury in that game that could keep him out of the bowl game. That will make their offense much more susceptible to being shutdown by VT. But VT’s offense is dreadful. The Hokies have lost 4 of their last 5 bowl games, while the Bearcats have won 3 in a row. I think the Bearcats will win a very close ball game.

January 2nd

Cotton Bowl: Mississippi (+4.5) vs. Texas Tech
Pick: Texas Tech wins but Mississippi beats the spread.
Comment: One of the more intriguing matchups of the bowl season. Ole Miss will be thrilled to be there, while the Red Raiders will be bummed. Tech does hold the location advantage but the Red Raiders lost the Cotton Bowl to Bama in 2005, while the Rebels beat Oklahoma State in the 2003 Cotton Bowl. Ole Miss won their last 5 games and they beat Florida on the road. This spread has shrunk and I’m a little leery of picking Ole Miss to stay within 4 of Texas Tech. I just think the Rebels might be able to keep it close due to being the more focused and motivated team. But I have to pick Texas Tech to win.

Liberty Bowl: East Carolina (-2.5) vs. Kentucky
Pick: East Carolina covers.
Comment: Kentucky could very easily have been 3-9 this year. They lost 6 of their final 8 games, with their only wins coming by 1 point each over Arkansas and Mississippi State. And they will be without QB Randall Cobb in the bowl game due to a knee injury. East Carolina should win this one.

Sugar Bowl: Utah (+10.5) vs. Alabama
Pick: Bama wins but Utah beats the spread.
Comment: Utah is legit and Bama has rarely routed teams this year even while going 12-1. You would think that Utah would have the motivational edge, as they come in wanting to validate their undefeated record and knock off a national power, while Bama is disappointed that they aren’t playing for the National Championship and isn’t excited about playing a Mountain West team. However, Bama’s fan base will be over the loss to Florida by the time of this game, and Nick Saban will have his team plenty fired up to play this game. Utah’s offensive and defensive coordinators have accepted jobs at other schools. That can’t be a good thing for the Utes. I think Bama will win convincingly but I think Utah will keep the score respectable.

January 3rd

International Bowl: Buffalo (+4.5) vs. Connecticut
Pick: Connecticut wins but Buffalo beats the spread.
Comment: Buffalo now knows that Turner Gill will be back as head coach next year, and UConn knows that they will have Donald Brown back. This game is played in Toronto and that didn’t help Buffalo’s professional football team this year. The Bulls got into this game by upsetting Ball State in the MAC Championship Game and they have been living a charmed life all season long. They have played in a ton of close games and I think they’ll keep this game close but I think the Huskies will win in the end.

January 5th

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State (+9) vs. Texas
Pick: Texas wins but Ohio State beats the spread.
Comment: In theory this is a great matchup but it might not be that interesting. It seems a safe bet that Texas will be motivated by anger, but the Buckeyes will be looking at this game as yet another chance to get back some of the respect they have lost nationally over the last few years. The Horns have won 4 straight bowl games. I think the Buckeyes will stay in the game for a while but I think Texas will eventually pull away.

January 6th

GMAC Bowl: Ball State (-2.5) vs. Tulsa
Pick: Ball State wins but Tulsa beats the spread.
Comment: This is a matchup of teams that lost as heavy favorites in their respective conference championship games. Brady Hoke’s decision to take the San Diego State head coaching position could have a huge impact on this game. It should be a pretty interesting game.

January 8th

BCS Championship: Florida (-3) vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Florida covers.
Comment: I think these teams are evenly matched. Florida should be at close to full strength in this game, while Oklahoma will be without two key players in defensive tackle DeMarcus Granger and running back DeMarco Murray. Sam Bradford will be dealing with all of the Heisman Trophy distractions in the next few weeks and he will take that added pressure with him into this game. Florida’s OC has accepted the head coaching job at Mississippi State but he will call plays in this game. I think that will have at least some affect on the Gators. Oklahoma has lost 4 straight BCS bowl games. I think this will be a great championship game, but I see Florida pulling it out in the end and winning by 5 or 6.