The NFL Blog: Week 14 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (9-7); Straight Up (11-5)
Season: Vs. Spread (89-95-8); Straight Up (121-68-1)

Week 13 Review: Last week was pretty solid for me, as I had a winning record ATS and went 11-5 straight up. I almost had a really good week but I missed by a half point in the Indy and TB games. My worst picks were Buffalo to cover a 7 point spread (they lost by 7) and the Jets to cover a 9 point spread (they lost by 17), but I have a feeling a lot of people had trouble with those 2 games.

Week 14 Preview: There certainly are a lot of big spreads this week. Maybe it’s just a coincidence or Vegas knows that this is the time of the year where teams that are out of it tend to just lie down the way the Jags did last Monday. I don’t know but for the most part I’m staying away from favorites in games with big spreads.

Thursday’s Game

Oakland (+10) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Raiders beat the spread.
Comment: Man, Atlanta gave San Diego so many chances to get back in the game last week and the Chargers still lost by 6 points at home as a 6.5 point favorite. Did you realize that the Chargers have never been over .500 at any point this season? They’ll have to win out to avoid a losing season and there’s a possibility they could lose 10 games this season. The Raiders are the Raiders but I’m through giving San Diego any credit. Oakland had them down big in the 4th quarter back in week 4 and then they surrendered like 25 unanswered points and lost 28-18. Sometimes the Raiders don’t show up and they get embarrassed but believe it or not they are normally fairly competitive. SD’s won 10 straight over the Raiders and I think they’ll win again on Thursday night but not by double digits.

Sunday’s Early Games

Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears cover.
Comment: The Bears haven’t been great lately. In fact, they’ve lost 3 of 4 and their only win in their last 4 was over the Rams. But the Jags have been bad all season and it looked like they had basically quit last Monday night. They’ve lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 and their only win in the last 6 games was over the Lions. They’ve lost their last 3 by double digits and I think they’ll lose by double digits again this week.

Minnesota (-9.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Vikings win but Lions beat the spread.
Comment: I realize it isn’t too much to expect the Vikings to win by double digits over the Lions but I would have taken Detroit to keep within single digits even before the suspensions were announced. I’m only more inclined to take the Lions now that I know they will be without their two stud interior tackles Kevin and Pat Williams. Minnesota has been hot, winning 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 8. But they are 2-4 on the road this season and 23-47 on the road this decade. I realize that the Lions are 0-12 at any venue this season and that they just got trampled on their homefield on Thanksgiving, but they’ve been competitive in a lot of games this year. And trust me; they don’t want to go 0-16. To be honest, they wouldn’t still be looking for their first win of the year if it weren’t for a horrendous call by an official made in their first game against Minnesota this year. They lost that one 12-10, thanks largely to that horrible call, and that was in Minnesota. Don’t get me wrong, I want the Lions to lose more than anything because I want to see them go 0-16. And I think they will lose but not by double digits.

Houston (+6) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers win but Texans beat the spread.
Comment: The Packers have really been struggling. They’ve now lost 4 of 5 and they’re only 3-3 this season at Lambeau Field. Houston is coming off of a big Monday night win and that normally spells doom for a team the following week, especially a young team traveling to the East coast. The Texans snapped an 8 game road losing streak against the Browns in week 12 but they’ve actually normally been competitive on the road even when they didn’t win. They are 3-0 against the spread in their last 3 games and I think they’ll keep this one close but I think GB will win it.

Cincinnati (+13.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Bengals beat the spread.
Comment: I know the Bengals are really bad and the Colts have won 5 straight but this is a big number. The Colts have only won 1 game by more than 6 points all season. They’re only 3-5-1 ATS as a favorite this year. I think they’ll win fairly easily but by less than 14.

Atlanta (+3) @ New Orleans
Pick: Falcons pull off the upset.
Comment: As a Falcons fan, I’ve been hesitant to expect too much from this year’s team, even as they continued to win when they weren’t supposed to. I’m still a little leery of putting too much faith in them but I think they’ve got a good shot to win this game. The Saints are now without 4 starters on defense and Deuce McAllister. Reggie Bush is back but not fully healthy and Drew Brees hasn’t always been able to do it by himself recently. The Saints are 4-1 at the Superdome this season but it’s not that big of a deal for the Falcons to fly a couple of hours over to New Orleans and play in a dome. In week 10 the Falcons were 3 TD’s better than the Saints (they scored a meaningless TD on a Hail Mary on the last play of the game to make it 34-20) and I don’t think being in New Orleans will make enough of a difference to keep Atlanta from pulling off the sweep.

Philadelphia (+7) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover.
Comment: In their last 30 games including the playoffs the Giants are 24-6 against the spread. That’s pretty impressive. They keep going up against teams with winning records and beating them decisively regardless of location. The Eagles got back on track against the Cardinals on Thanksgiving and they’ll have a few extra days to prepare for this game but they couldn’t beat the G-Men at home and I don’t see it happening on the road. I think it will be somewhat competitive but in the end I think New York will win by 10 or so.

Cleveland (+13.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Browns beat the spread.
Comment: I know the Browns are down to Ken Dorsey at QB and without Kellen Winslow but they are 4-1 ATS on the road this year. They’ve been competitive most of the year and I don’t think they’ll lie down against Tennessee. The Titans will be well rested after their 37 point win over the Lions on Thanksgiving, but in their last 2 home games they have won in OT over the Packers and lost by 21 to the Jets. I think they’ll win easily over Cleveland but by less than 14.

Sunday’s Late Games

Miami (+1) @ Buffalo
Pick: Dolphins pull off the upset.
Comment: The Bills pulled it together for a week and then last week they score only 3 points and lost by 7 to the Niners at home. That makes them 1-5 in their last 6 games and they’ve lost 3 straight at home. It was their 9 point loss at Miami back in week 8 that started them on this skid. The Dolphins have a bit of a misleading record themselves. They’ve won 5 of 6 but 3 of those wins have come over St. Louis, Seattle, and Oakland by a total of 8 points. They’ve lost 4 straight in Buffalo but they’re playing there at a good time. The Bills have hit rock bottom and they probably won’t have Trent Edwards this week. I think the Fins will get it done.

Kansas City (+9.5) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos win but Chiefs beat the spread.
Comment: I’m not ready to pick the Broncos to win by 10 points against anybody, regardless of location, regardless of opponent, regardless of what they did last week. They’ve lost 3 straight at home anyway. I know the Chiefs snapped a 9 game road losing streak last week with their win in Oakland, but until last week their only win all year had been a 14 point victory over these very Broncos in week 4. The Chiefs are actually 6-6 ATS this season. Denver is 1-6-1 ATS as a favorite this year and just 4-4 straight up as a favorite. I think they’ll win because they are playing the Chiefs but I think it’ll be close.

New York Jets (-4) @ San Francisco
Pick: Jets cover.
Comment: I had finally admitted that I was wrong about the Jets and that they were as good as everybody said they were and then they lost by 17 at home to the Broncos. The Niners are 2-2 since the bye week and 3-1 ATS. But if the Jets are really a good team then they’ll win this one by double digits. It shouldn’t be that close.

New England (-4.5) @ Seattle
Pick: Patriots cover.
Comment: It’s pretty amazing that the Seahawks are 1-5 at home this year and their only home win was over the Rams. This game will probably be competitive but I think the Patriots will end up winning by a TD or so.

St. Louis (+13.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals cover.
Comment: This is a big spread but it doesn’t make much sense to go with St. Louis. Yes, they only lost by 4 to the Dolphins last week, but that was at home, and they’ve lost 8 games by 17 points or more this year. The Cardinals are tough at home and tough against their own division. They’re 5-1 ATS at a favorite this year and they won by 21 over the Rams on the road in week 9. I think they’ll win by about that much at home this weekend.

Dallas (+3) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover.
Comment: What a game! This could go either way in my opinion. The Cowboys are getting it back together now that Romo is back and they’ve won 3 straight. The Steelers are finally starting to get healthy and they’re coming off an impressive win in New England. This is just another game against a good opponent for the Steelers, who seem to play a potential playoff team each week. They’ve already lost twice at home this season and I don’t see it happening again. It’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take Pittsburgh to cover.

Sunday Night’s Game

Washington (+5) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover.
Comment: The Ravens have won 6 of 7 and they are 9-3 ATS this year. They’re 4-1 at home this year and 50-19 at home this decade. Since winning 4 straight earlier this year, the Skins have gone 3-4 with wins over Cleveland, Seattle, and Detroit. They are 1-5-1 ATS during that time. I’ll take the Ravens to win by a TD.

Monday Night’s Game

Tampa Bay (+3) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers cover.
Comment: I think the Bucs are maybe a little better than the Panthers but they are not as good on the road as they are at home. The Panthers don’t have a huge homefield advantage but they’re 6-0 at home this year and Tampa is just not as dangerous away from Raymond James Stadium. They’re 3-3 on the road this year with overtime wins over the Bears and Chiefs and a come from behind win over the Lions. I’m also still not convinced they’ll be able to keep winning without Earnest Graham. I know the Bucs beat Carolina 27-3 in week 6 but that was in Tampa. I think the Panthers will win this one and it’s a field goal spread so I’ll just take the Panthers to cover.