Last
Week’s Record
Biggest
10 Games (Straight Up: 9-1; Vs. Spread: 6-4)
Overall
(Straight
Up: 40-16; Vs. Spread: 27-28-1; Moneyline Upsets: 3-2)
Season
Record
Biggest
10 Games (Straight Up: 72-38; Vs. Spread: 51-59)
Overall
(Straight
Up: 433-134; Vs. Spread: 298-267-1; Moneyline Upsets: 23-21)
Week
11 Review: While I had a pretty solid week overall—going 9-1
(straight up) and 6-4 (ATS) in the biggest 10 games and 3-2 in upsets—I was
disappointed by the end result in the overall ATS category. But I guess if you’re
going to have a losing week, being only 1 game under .500 is the way to go.
There were a number of stunners last week, with several big favorites not only
failing to cover but losing outright. Overall I’d have to say it was one of the
stranger weeks of the season.
Week
12 Preview: This week feels kind of like a downer to
me. Maybe it’s because I feel like a lot of the meaning and drama of the season
went down the tubes when Bama lost to A&M on Saturday, seemingly bringing
an end to the SEC’s run of BCS titles. Don’t get me wrong; the A&M-Bama
game was a classic. But it did almost seem to bring a premature end to the
season.
It just doesn’t seem at
all likely to me that any of the 3 remaining unbeaten teams will lose this
season. I would be absolutely flabbergasted if Oregon lost. I know they have
games against 2 great teams and probably a third in the Pac-12 title game, but
I haven’t seen anything to make me think that the Ducks are even capable of
losing a conference game. Kansas State won’t be playing pushovers the next 2
weeks in Baylor and Texas, but I doubt KSU will stumble. Notre Dame really only
has 1 more game on their schedule, as Wake Forest doesn’t really count. I think
USC can beat ND, but the Trojans haven’t come up big even once so far this
season, and the Irish have had uncanny luck this year.
Plus, Notre Dame is
almost irrelevant as long as Oregon and KSU avoid disaster, because the Irish
are just about hopelessly stuck in third if all 3 teams finish the regular season
undefeated. The problem is that the teams that might be able to beat Oregon and
KSU (and certainly Notre Dame) are all in the SEC. This year it doesn’t look
like the SEC will get a chance to prove it.
Anyway, this week
certainly feels like a letdown, with 7 games involving FCS opponents. There are
54 games between FBS teams, and to be honest, I had a hard time coming up with
10 for the “Biggest Games” category, even with a number of rivalry games being
played. There just aren’t that many important games left and the few important
games that are on the schedule this weekend don’t figure to be competitive.
I’ve said many times this
season that sometimes the weeks that look humdrum on paper turn out to be
totally insane. But at this point, with so few teams in the hunt for the
championship game (at least as things stand right now), it doesn’t seem like a
wild weekend is in the cards.
As for my picks, I’m
hoping for a bounce back week so I can have some momentum heading into the
final couple of weeks of the regular season. I ended up taking what seems like
way more underdogs ATS than I usually do, and that always scares me a bit.
One final note about
this week’s picks. For the second week in a row there are some games still “off
the board” as I write this entry midweek. Lines for the Cal-Oregon State and
Wyoming-UNLV games just came out within the hour. I have had to use “projected”
spreads for both the Iowa-Michigan and Arizona-Utah games. You know, I’m
struggling to remember a single week over the last 4 years when Michigan’s line
wasn’t off the board for at least a day. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it
again: not only is Denard Robinson more a glorified running back than a QB, he
is the softest quarterback I have seen during my 31 years on this planet.
Friday
Game
1:
Florida International (+2) @ Florida Atlantic
Pick:
Florida International pulls off the upset
Saturday
Game
2:
Eastern Michigan (+13) @ Western Michigan
Pick:
Eastern Michigan beats the spread
Game
3:
South Florida (+7) @ Miami
Pick:
Miami covers
Game
4:
USC (-4) @ UCLA
Pick:
USC covers
Game
5:
Ohio State (+3) @ Wisconsin
Pick:
Ohio State pulls off the upset
Game
6:
SMU (-3.5) @ Rice
Pick:
SMU covers
Game
7:
Wake Forest (+24) @ Notre Dame
Pick:
Wake Forest beats the spread
Game
8:
Tennessee (+4) @ Vanderbilt
Pick:
Tennessee beats the spread
Game
9:
Kansas State (-11.5) @ Baylor
Pick:
Kansas State covers
Game
10:
Stanford (+20.5) @ Oregon
Pick:
Stanford beats the spread
Other
Games
Wednesday
Ohio (+6) @ Ball State
(Ohio beats the spread)
Toledo (+10.5) @
Northern Illinois (Toledo beats the spread)
Thursday
North Carolina (-3) @
Virginia (North Carolina covers)
Friday
Hawaii (+22.5) @ Air
Force (Air Force covers)
Saturday
Florida State (-31) @
Maryland (Florida State covers)
Northwestern (+6.5) @
Michigan State (Northwestern beats the spread)
Iowa (+9.5) @ Michigan
(Michigan covers)
Kent State (+2.5) @
Bowling Green (Bowling Green covers)
Central Florida (+3) @
Tulsa (Tulsa covers)
Indiana (+18) @ Penn
State (Penn State covers)
Houston (+3.5) @
Marshall (Houston beats the spread)
Temple (+3.5) @ Army (Temple
pulls off the upset)
Rutgers (+6.5) @
Cincinnati (Rutgers beats the spread)
Arkansas (+7) @
Mississippi State (Arkansas beats the spread)
Virginia Tech (-10) @
Boston College (Virginia Tech covers)
Miami (Ohio) (+3.5) @
Central Michigan (Miami (Ohio) beats the spread)
Washington (-20.5) @
Colorado (Washington covers)
Memphis (+10) @ UAB (Memphis
beats the spread)
Washington State (+21.5)
@ Arizona State (Arizona State covers)
Buffalo (-11) @
Massachusetts (Buffalo covers)
Duke (+13) @ Georgia Tech
(Duke beats the spread)
Mississippi (+18.5) @
LSU (Mississippi beats the spread)
Colorado State (+28) @
Boise State (Boise State covers)
Middle Tennessee State (-8.5)
@ South Alabama (MTS covers)
Minnesota (+19.5) @
Nebraska (Nebraska covers)
Nevada (-10) @ New
Mexico (Nevada covers)
North Carolina State (+17)
@ Clemson (Clemson covers)
Texas Tech (+10.5) @
Oklahoma State (Ok State covers)
Texas State (+13) @
Navy (Texas State beats the spread)
Purdue (-7) @ Illinois (Purdue
covers)
Arkansas State (-3) @
Troy (Arkansas State covers)
East Carolina (-9.5) @
Tulane (ECU covers)
Utah State (-3) @
Louisiana Tech (LT pulls off the upset)
North Texas (+10) @
Louisiana-Monroe (ULM covers)
Wyoming (-1) @ UNLV (UNLV
pulls off the upset)
Texas-San Antonio (-6.5)
@ Idaho (Idaho beats the spread)
Iowa State (-6) @ Kansas
(Kansas beats the spread)
Oklahoma (-10.5) @ West
Virginia (Oklahoma covers)
Western Kentucky (+3.5)
@ Louisiana-Lafayette (WK beats the spread)
Syracuse (+4.5) @
Missouri (Mizzu covers)
UTEP (-4) @ Southern
Mississippi (UTEP covers)
Arizona (+3) @ Utah (Utah
covers)
BYU (-3.5) @ San Jose
State (SJS pulls off the upset)
California (+14) @
Oregon State (Oregon State covers)
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