Power
Rankings After Week 12
1. Alabama 10-1 (3rd)
2. Oregon 10-1 (1st)
3. Kansas State 10-1 (2nd)
4. LSU 9-2 (4th)
5. Georgia 10-1 (5th)
6. Stanford 9-2 (9th)
7. Texas A&M 9-2 (6th)
8. South Carolina 9-2 (7th)
9. Florida 10-1 (8th)
10. Oregon State 8-2
(10th)
11. Notre Dame 11-0 (11th)
12. Florida State 10-1
(13th)
13. Clemson 10-1 (15th)
14. UCLA 9-2 (NR)
15. Oklahoma 8-2 (12th)
Out:
USC (14th).
Comments:
Well, that didn’t take long. I was sort of trying to jinx things with my dire
predictions about the teams at the top remaining undefeated (and trying to keep
from getting my hopes up), but I will admit I was surprised that both Kansas
State and Oregon went down the very first week after Bama’s first loss. I was
definitely surprised that Kansas State got blown out. I was also surprised that
Oregon lost a low-scoring game at home. But almost every other year we see this
happen. You just can’t let the pressure get to you and I think that may have
played a role in both losses last week.
In contrast to the
mainstream polls, I do not automatically send teams to the back of the pack
when they lose. Yes, I do consider the way teams are playing right now, in the
moment, but there’s more to it than that. I look at how a team lost and who
they lost to.
Oregon lost at home but
it was a very close game that could have gone either way, and they lost to a Stanford
team that has proven to be among the best in the country. I’m not going to send
Oregon to the back of the pack just because they lost a close game to one of
the top teams.
In the case of Kansas
State, they took an ugly loss to a Baylor team that still isn’t bowl eligible.
That one bad game almost certainly sunk KSU’s chances of making it to the
national title game, but I’ve seen enough from them this year to give them the
benefit of the doubt. I still think they’re very good. We’ll probably find out
just how good when they play Texas in a couple weeks. If they lose that one
then we can maybe say that they are just one of the better teams in the Big
XII. For now, I still think they’re the best team in the deepest conference in
the country.
As for my rankings this
week, there was a bit more change than there had been in recent weeks. In the
last 2 editions of these rankings less than 10 spots had experienced change.
This week 11 of 15 spots changed. All 15 teams had remained in the power
rankings last week for the first time on the year, but this week I did switch
out 1 team. This is still the seventh time in eight weeks that at least 14 of
the 15 teams stayed in the power rankings.
USC was the only team
to fall out of my rankings this week, and to be honest, it was more than about
time. Let’s get real here: USC has not only failed miserably to reach
expectations, they have historically underachieved. They returned 16 starters
from last year’s 10-2 team (with 1 of those losses coming at Stanford in triple
overtime), including their top rusher, top 3 receivers, and their 4-year
starter QB who turned down a shot at the #1 overall draft pick to return. In
addition they brought back the same coaching staff; both their punter and
kicker; and 8 of their top 10 offensive linemen. To top it all off they picked
up RB Silas Redd, who transferred without restriction from Penn State.
There’s no doubt that
the Pac-12 is improved this season, but USC should not have lost 4 (possibly 5)
games this season. When you look at it, they did lose 3 of 4 on the road, and
their home loss was to Oregon, but this team should not have lost to Arizona
regardless of location. They shouldn’t give up 62 points at home to anyone,
even Oregon. And while UCLA is quite obviously much improved, I have a hard
time understanding how the rivalry took a 60-point swing this season, with USC
going from winning by 50 to losing by 10.
Look, I understand that
sometimes teams are overrated. Sometimes it makes all the sense in the world
for a team to be projected to do great things and for whatever reason it just
doesn’t happen. I also understand that USC isn’t as deep as they normally would
be due to the scholarship restrictions. But for this team to have relatively good
injury luck (until this week of course) and be 6-4 is mind boggling.
USC has already said
that Lane Kiffin will return and that’s a decision that I just don’t understand
at all. I’m obviously not privy to everything that’s going on but I can’t think
of any reason why USC should be so certain they don’t want to make a change
when there is still the game against ND and a bowl game to be played. You’re
telling me that a bad loss to ND and a loss in a bowl game wouldn’t change
anything at all? 6-6 as opposed to 8-4 with a win over the #1 team in the
country?
Furthermore, it’s not
like Kiffin has a long track record of winning at USC or a long track record of
winning as a head coach in general. And there’s so much baggage that comes
along with Kiffin. If you want Kiffin, you also have to take his father as DC.
With Kiffin you’re going to get bratty behavior and immature tactics on game
day and dealing with the media. You’re probably going to have success in
recruiting, but you’re also constantly going to be riding that line.
I understand that
Kiffin had to deal with punishments that he really didn’t have anything to do
with and perhaps Pat Hayden feels like he owes Kiffin something. But here’s the
thing: Lane Kiffin’s never felt like he owed anybody anything, so why should
USC feel like they need to treat Kiffin any better? And regardless of Kiffin’s
apparent talent as a recruiter, there are plenty of coaches out there who can
bring talent to USC.
Anyhow, I finally gave
in and ejected USC from power rankings this week. They fell out of the rankings
from #14 this week and were replaced by the very team who defeated them on
Saturday. UCLA jumps back into the rankings for the first time since week 4,
coming in at #14 this week.
Overall, 4 teams moved
up in the rankings this week and 6 teams moved down while still remaining in
the top 15. 3 of the 4 teams to move up in my rankings this week moved up more
than 1 spot. Only 1 of the 6 teams moving in the wrong direction fell more than
1 spot.
Not surprisingly,
Stanford made the biggest move up the rankings this week, climbing 3 spots from
#9 to #6. When Stanford knocked off USC I was skeptical, and when they then
lost to Washington soon after I felt justified. But they have since proven to
be one of the best teams in the country. They are a legit power now. They’ve
survived the graduation of a dominant running back; the exit of the coach who
built the program; and the loss of their #1 overall pick QB. I’d say Stanford
has passed the test, not just this year, but as a program.
Of the teams remaining
in my top 15 this week, Oklahoma took the biggest tumble, despite winning on
the road at West Virginia last week. I dropped the Sooners 3 spots in my rankings
this week from #12 to #15. They barely managed to survive against the
Mountaineers last Saturday night, scoring a late touchdown to win by a point.
West Virginia has now lost 5 in a row and at this point they don’t look like
anything more than an average team, yet Oklahoma needed a score on 4th
and goal to survive. The Sooners are still a great team but they’re nowhere
near as good as I thought they’d be (and maybe I just need to automatically
downgrade Oklahoma when I’m making my predictions before the season because it
seems like every single year I overrate Oklahoma).
Obviously there was
some drama at the top of the rankings this week. Last week, Alabama fell out of
my #1 spot after 10 straight weeks atop the rankings, ending a streak of 31
straight weeks with an SEC team holding the #1 ranking in my top 15. Just 1
week later, Bama and the SEC are right back at the top. Alabama moved up 2
spots this week from #3 to reclaim the #1 spot in my rankings.
I dropped Oregon down 1
spot from #1 to #2. I also moved KSU down just 1 spot from #2 to #3. I need to
see how Oregon plays this week and how Kansas State plays next week before I
decide that the first 10 weeks were the mirage and not last week. However, as I
said last week, I still had a feeling in my gut that Alabama was the best team
in the country, and last week’s results were more than enough for me to follow
that gut feeling and return Bama to the top spot.
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