The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 6 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (7-7); Straight Up: (6-8)

Season: Vs. Spread (31-44-1); Straight Up: (38-38)

Week 5 Review: Well, I’m not going to complain about going .500 ATS at this point. It’s my record picking winners that I’m most concerned about presently. I’ve now been under .500 straight up 2 weeks in a row, and I’m now at .500 picking winners after 5 weeks of play. That’s tough to defend.

Week 6 Preview: Okay, here’s the goal: .500 ATS and a winning record straight up. Ready…Break!

Sunday’s Early Games

Atlanta (+3) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: Sorry. I know I’m supposed to believe, but we never beat the Eagles, especially in Philly. We’ve lost 3 straight to the Eagles and 7 of 8 since 2000. We’ve lost 5 straight in Philly and haven’t won since 1988. The big question is: is he playing? Honestly, I’m a little surprised that the media hasn’t been talking about this more. I know that he played in Atlanta last year and I know that he’s likely to miss the game with the rib injury, but I’m still surprised that it hasn’t been discussed more. If he does play and he is healthy, he’ll probably hurt us. If he does play and he’s still hurt, we’ll hurt him and that might give us a chance to win. I’d really rather he not play just to avoid the whole Michael Vick fan vs. Falcons fan thing. We don’t need it right now. People are starting to trust this team and accept it as their own. It’s starting to be “cool” to be a Falcons fan, and that’s always going to be a major issue in Atlanta, there’s no use wishing it wasn't so.

Cleveland (+13.5) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: This looks like the lock of the week to me. I know that Big Ben will likely be a bit rusty, but how much will that matter? If he tries to “prove himself” or something stupid like that it could be an issue, but I don’t think it will happen that way. On the other side, it looks like Colt McCoy will be making his first NFL start on the road against the Steelers. He may not even have Peyton Hillis to take some of the heat off of him. The Browns stunned the Steelers on national television late last season to snap a 12 game losing skid against their hated rivals, but this is a different Steelers team. The Browns have lost 6 straight in Pittsburgh.

Seattle (+7) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears cover
Comment: It looks like Jay Cutler will play this weekend. Is that good or bad? Well, I guess it’s good. I mean say what you will about Cutler being a spoiled brat and a punk and a head case and a Jeff George for this generation, but Todd Collins sucks. The Seahawks are coming off of a bye, but they are 0-2 on the road this season. Seattle is just 2-12 in their last 14 road games (with both of those wins coming against the Rams).

Detroit (+10) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover
Comment: I’m torn on this game, at least as far as the spread. The Giants are not dead, okay, I was wrong about that. But they are still not trust worthy. New York is 2-1 at home this season but just 6-6 in their 12 home games. I’m not saying the Lions are going to win. I mean they’ve lost 23 straight on the road. But Detroit did just get off the schnide in a major way with a 44-6 win over the Lambs. The Lions are 4-1 ATS this season.

Baltimore (+3) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Ravens beat the spread
Comment: This is a tough one. The Ravens look really good, and the Patriots just traded Randy Moss. New England won at home over the Ravens in the regular season last year but then got embarrassed in the playoffs. The Patriots are coming off of a bye and I hate to bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

San Diego (-9) @ St. Louis
Pick: Chargers win but Rams beat the spread
Comment: Maybe things won’t turn out alright in the end for the Chargers this season. You know what the difference seems to be? They aren’t getting any breaks. They have outgained all of their opponents this season, by an average of 461.8-244.2, but they are just 2-3. They are 0-3 on the road. The Rams plummeted back to earth last week with a 44-6 loss to Detroit. Still, they have the same record as the Chargers (despite being outgained by their opponents 318-342 on average). The Rams are 2-1 at home and 3-2 ATS. But again I have to mention that the last time the Rams won back to back games they lost their next 17 in a row. Hopefully they didn’t start another streak with that performance last week.

Miami (Pick) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: It looks like Aaron Rodgers may now start, but the Packers are still ridiculously banged up. The Dolphins will be fresh, coming off of a bye. But I still like the Packers at home, even if Rodgers doesn’t play.

New Orleans (-4.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Saints win but Bucs beat the spread
Comment: I can’t believe the Bucs come into this game with fewer losses than the Saints. New Orleans has lost 4 straight vs. the spread. Tampa Bay is 3-1 with their only loss coming to Pittsburgh. The Bucs are also 4-2 in their last 6 vs. the Saints. This game is actually blacked out locally. I still don’t know if sports work in Tampa Bay.

Kansas City (+4.5) @ Houston
Pick: Texans win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: A big game for two teams trying to prove themselves. Both teams are coming off of losses. Houston has already lost twice at home this season, and the Chiefs have already won on the road.

Sunday’s Late Games

New York Jets (-3) @ Denver
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: The Jets look super but playing in the altitude is always tricky. This will also be a short week for the Jets. Remember, in 2008, the Jets were 8-3 and 8 point favorites over the Broncos at home, but they lost 34-17, and went on to lose 4 of their last 5. However, the Jets have won 4 straight ATS and they should be able to slow down Denver’s passing offense.

Oakland (+6.5) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners win but Raiders beat the spread
Comment: Is this really a road game for the Raiders? At least it will be on TV. The Niners are 0-5 for the first time since 1979. San Fran has to win at some point, right? Each team has lost a few close ones. The Raiders lost by a point at Arizona and lost by 7 at home to the Texans. The Niners lost by 3 at home to the Saints, by 2 in Atlanta, and by 3 last week to the Eagles at home. While the Raiders will be coming off of a huge win over the Chargers, the Niners are desperate and they are the healthier team.

Dallas (+1) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: A battle of 2 teams that were expected to contend for the NFC Title but find themselves in a must win game in week 6. Both the Cowboys and Vikings are 1-3. The loser of this game is not exactly fucked, but they’re definitely screwed.

Sunday Night’s Game

Indianapolis (-3) @ Washington
Pick: Colts cover
Comment: The Colts have already lost twice on the road this season, but they are getting healthier. Washington will again be without Clinton Portis.

Monday Night’s Game

Tennessee (-3) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jags pull off the upset
Comment: This is a very tricky game. Jacksonville crushed the Titans at home last season, and the Jags are 2-1 at home this season with a win over the Colts. However, the Titans are 2-0 on the road. Both teams have been outgained by their opponents, yet both teams are 3-2. I’m just playing a hunch here. And I wanted to pick an underdog to win straight up.

The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 7 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 6-4; Vs. Spread: 4-4-2)

Overall (Straight up: 38-17; Vs. Spread: 26-27-2; Moneyline Upsets: 1-3)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 46-14; Vs. Spread: 23-32-5)

Overall (Straight up: 226-65; Vs. Spread: 136-150-5; Moneyline Upsets: 6-16)

Week 6 Review: Well, I would have been a game over .500 if I hadn’t left the damn West Virginia-UNLV game out!!! Instead, it went as a loss and I finished a game below .500. That about sums up my week 6.

Week 7 Preview: This is a really, really slow week. As for my picks, I feel like I have a good shot at .500, as long as I don’t leave out any games.

Thursday

Game 1: Kansas State (-3) @ Kansas
Pick: Kansas State covers
Comment: Yeah, like I said, it’s a slow week. This game was originally scheduled to be played on Saturday. KU will play this game after 12 days off, while the Wildcats will play on Thursday night for the second week in a row. Both teams got their asses kicked the last time out. Last season KSU snapped a 3 game losing skid to their bitter rivals, but Kansas has won 3 straight at home in this series.

Saturday

Game 2: Missouri (+3.5) @ Texas A&M
Pick: Missouri pulls off the upset
Comment: Missouri is 5-0 but the Tigers haven’t really been tested yet. A&M comes into this game having lost 2 in a row, and the Aggies look destined for another mediocre year.

Game 3: South Carolina (-5.5) @ Kentucky
Pick: Kentucky beats the spread
Comment: South Carolina will have to keep their guard up, as they will be coming into this game on a high after beating Alabama at home last week. The Wildcats have lost 3 straight but they are dangerous. They will be much less dangerous if RB Derrick Locke cannot go this Saturday, and he is questionable with an ailing shoulder. With South Carolina coming off the biggest win of the Steve Spurrier era, you might think that they are primed for an upset. Last season the Gamecocks had to break up a 2-pt conversion in order to preserve a 28-26 win. However, South Carolina has won 10 in a row over Kentucky, and Spurrier is 17-0 in his career against the Cats.

Game 4: Iowa (-3) @ Michigan
Pick: Iowa covers
Comment: Iowa is definitely tough, but they lost their first road game this season, and they are just 7-24-1 in their last 32 games against Michigan. 5 of Michigan’s 7 losses to the Hawkeyes over that time have been by 3 points or less, including last season when Iowa got a pick with less than a minute left to seal a 30-28 win at home. Michigan started last year 4-0, then lost to Michigan State, and went on to drop 7 of their last 8 games (with the only win coming against Delaware State). We’ll see if they can avoid a similar collapse this season, having started off 5-0 before losing again to their instate rivals last weekend. Iowa is just 7-8 off of a bye under Kirk Ferentz.

Game 5: Oklahoma State (+3.5) @ Texas Tech
Pick: Oklahoma State beats the spread
Comment: The Cowboys are 5-0, but this will be Okie State’s first true road test. The visitor has lost 8 straight and 11 of 12 in this series. But Texas Tech has already lost at home this season and the Red Raiders don’t seem to have completely settled in yet under Tommy Tuberville. I have my doubts as to whether they ever will.

Game 6: Texas (+10) @ Nebraska
Pick: Texas beats the spread
Comment: A rematch of last season’s controversial Big XII Championship Game. Nebraska has lost 8 of 9 to Texas, including the last 5 played between these two, although 4 of the last 5 have been decided by 3 points or less. Nebraska is coming off of a blowout over previously unbeaten Kansas State on the road last Thursday. The Longhorns are coming off of a bye but they have lost their last 2 games by double digits. Texas has not lost 3 consecutive games since losing their final 3 games of the 1999 season (at Texas A&M; vs. Nebraska in the Big XII Championship Game; vs. Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl), Mack Brown’s 2nd in Austin. The Longhorns are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games going back to last year’s A&M game.

Game 7: BYU (+29.5) @ TCU
Pick: TCU covers
Comment: During the summer this looked like one of the few games on the TCU schedule that the Horned Frogs might possibly lose. It was a long shot, as BYU was expected to be down a bit this season, and TCU is always tough to beat at home. At this point it’s not even a long shot. Look at that spread. BYU is expected to lose by 30. On second thought, maybe they do need to go independent. The Horned Frogs have won 17 straight at home. The Cougars are 0-3 on the road this season, losing all 3 games by at least 15 points. TCU won the last 2 meetings by a combined score of 70-14.

Game 8: Ohio State (-4) @ Wisconsin
Pick: Ohio State covers
Comment: Wisconsin was the only team to beat Ohio State 3 times in the 2000's. Unfortunately for the Badgers, the last win came in 2004. Wisconsin has lost 3 straight to Ohio State and 4 of 5 to the Buckeyes at home. If the Badgers are looking for hope they can focus on the fact that they are 13-1 in their last 14 home games overall. Also, the Buckeyes struggled a bit in their only road game this season, winning 24-13 over Illinois in a game that was closer than the final score indicated.

Game 9: Arkansas (+3.5) @ Auburn
Pick: Auburn covers
Comment: This game has been a thorn in the ass of the Tigers for some time now. There have been 4 straight upsets in this series. The road team had won 4 straight and 5 of 6 before Auburn fell at Arkansas last season. The Hogs are still only 2-8 on the road under Bobby Petrino.

Game 10: Nevada (-7) @ Hawaii
Pick: Hawaii beats the spread
Comment: Everyone wants to see Nevada and Boise State face each other with both teams still undefeated. So far, so good. But the Wolf Pack have a stumbling block in their way this Saturday. The trip to Hawaii is always a tricky one, and the Warriors just whipped Fresno State on the road by 22. The home team has won 10 of 11 in this series. In fact, Nevada has not won on the island since 1948.

Other Games

Wednesday

Central Florida (-5.5) @ Marshall (Marshall beats the spread)

Thursday

South Florida (+10.5) @ West Virginia (West Virginia covers)

Friday

Cincinnati (-2.5) @ Louisville (Cinci covers)

Saturday

Boston College (+21.5) @ Florida State (FSU covers)

Arkansas State (+11.5) @ Indiana (Indiana covers)

Illinois (+7) @ Michigan State (MSU covers)

NC State (-7) @ East Carolina (NC State covers)

Pittsburgh (-2.5) @ Syracuse (Cuse pulls off the upset)

Maryland (+14.5) @ Clemson (Maryland beats the spread)

Southern Miss (-14.5) @ Memphis (Southern Miss covers)

Minnesota (+5.5) @ Purdue (Minnesota beats the spread)

Miami (Ohio) (+13) @ Central Michigan (Miami (OH) beats the spread)

Vanderbilt (+16.5) @ Georgia (Vandy beats the spread)

Mississippi State (+7) @ Florida (Florida covers)

Mississippi (+20.5) @ Alabama (Mississippi beats the spread)

Eastern Michigan (+14) @ Ball State (BSU covers)

Bowling Green (+20) @ Temple (Temple covers)

Miami (-19.5) @ Duke (Duke beats the spread)

Akron (+16.5) @ Ohio (Ohio covers)

Army (+7) @ Rutgers (Army beats the spread)

UNLV (+3.5) @ Colorado State (CSU covers)

Western Michigan (+24) @ Notre Dame (WM beats the spread)

California (+2.5) @ USC (USC covers)

Buffalo (+15.5) @ Northern Illinois (NIU covers)

Houston (-9.5) @ Rice (Rice beats the spread)

Wake Forest (+22.5) @ Virginia Tech (VT covers)

Middle Tennessee State (+19) @ Georgia Tech (GT covers)

SMU (Pick) @ Navy (Navy wins)

UTEP (+2.5) @ UAB (UTEP pulls off the upset)

Idaho (+1.5) @ Louisiana Tech (LT covers)

Utah (-20.5) @ Wyoming (Utah covers)

North Carolina (-6.5) @ Virginia (UVA beats the spread)

Kent State (+2.5) @ Toledo (Toledo covers)

Louisiana-Lafayette (+19) @ Troy (Troy covers)

Baylor (-1) @ Colorado (Baylor covers)

Iowa State (+23.5) @ Oklahoma (Oklahoma covers)

Louisiana-Monroe (+2) @ Western Kentucky (ULM pulls off the upset)

Tulane (+18.5) @ Tulsa (Tulsa covers)

Arizona (-23.5) @ Washington State (Washington State beats the spread)

Florida International (-5) @ North Texas (FIU covers)

Air Force (+1) @ San Diego State (Air Force pulls off the upset)

Boise State (-39.5) @ San Jose State (Boise State covers)

Oregon State (-1) @ Washington (Oregon State covers)

New Mexico State (+31) @ Fresno State (Fresno State covers)

The NFL Blog: 2010 Power Rankings (After Week 5)

Power Rankings After Week 5

1. Baltimore 4-1 (1st)
2. Pittsburgh 3-1 (2nd)
3. New York Jets 4-1 (3rd)
4. New England 3-1 (4th)
5. Indianapolis 3-2 (5th)
6. Kansas City 3-1 (8th)
7. Atlanta 4-1 (10th)
8. Philadelphia 3-2 (15th)
9. Washington 3-2 (16th)
10. New York Giants 3-2 (17th)
11. Green Bay 3-2 (6th)
12. New Orleans 3-2 (7th)
13. Houston 3-2 (9th)
14. Minnesota 1-3 (11th)
15. Tampa Bay 3-1 (20th)
16. Miami 2-2 (18th)
17. Chicago 4-1 (19th)
18. Tennessee 3-2 (21st)
19. Cincinnati 2-3 (12th)
20. Dallas 1-3 (13th)
21. San Diego 2-3 (14th)
22. Detroit 1-4 (23rd)
23. Jacksonville 3-2 (24th)
24. St. Louis 2-3 (22nd)
25. Arizona 3-2 (28th)
26. Oakland 2-3 (30th)
27. Denver 2-3 (25th)
28. Cleveland 1-4 (26th)
29. Seattle 2-2 (27th)
30. San Francisco 0-5 (29th)
31. Carolina 0-5 (31st)
32. Buffalo 0-5 (32nd)

-Previous week’s rankings in parenthesis;

Finally some stability at the top. The top 5 teams in my rankings stayed in place this week after several weeks of massive changes. Of course after the top 5 it is utter chaos.

It’s a mad house!!! Things are still crazy between the very top and very bottom of my rankings. Spots 6 through 30 in my rankings changed this week.

The bottom 2. At least we can count on the Panthers and Bills to suck. They stayed at 31st and 32nd respectively in my rankings.

Sevens up and down. 3 teams climbed 7 spots in my rankings this week, while 3 teams fell 7 spots. The Eagles, Skins, and Giants all gained 7 positions in my rankings this week. The Bengals, Cowboys, and Chargers all fell off 7 places in my rankings this week.

The College Football Blog: 2010 Season Résumé Rankings (After Week 6)

Season Résumé Rankings after Week 6

1. LSU 6-0 (2nd)
2. Auburn 6-0 (4th)
3. Ohio State 6-0 (9th)
4. Oregon 6-0 (5th)
5. Michigan State 6-0 (7th)
6. TCU 6-0 (6th)
7. Oklahoma 5-0 (3rd)
8. Nevada 6-0 (NR)
9. Boise State 5-0 (NR)
10. Utah 5-0 (NR)

Out: Alabama (1st); Michigan (8th); Northwestern (10th).

Explanation: This list is getting interesting. There are still only undefeated teams in my top 10, but this week I have a 5-0 squad ranked ahead of a 6-0 squad. Alabama fell from 1st all the way out of my rankings after suffering their first loss of the season. Michigan (#8) and Northwestern (#10) also fell out of my rankings after losing for the first time on the year.

LSU had been #2 but they moved up to the #1 spot after beating Florida on the road. LSU is the only team in the country that has beaten 6 teams from BCS conferences. Auburn moved up 2 spots from 4th to 2nd this week. The Tigers have defeated 6 FBS teams and they are 4-0 against teams from BCS conferences.

Ohio State made a big leap forward in these rankings this week, jumping 6 spots from 9th to 3rd. They are now 6-0 vs. FBS teams and 3-0 against teams from BCS conferences. Oregon moved up 1 spot this week from 5th to 4th. The Ducks are 5-0 vs. FBS teams and 4-0 against teams from BCS conferences. Michigan State moved up 2 spots this week, climbing from 7th to 5th. The Spartans are 5-0 against FBS teams and 3-0 vs. teams from BCS conferences.

TCU stayed put at #6, just outside the top 5. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 against the FBS but just 2-0 vs. teams from BCS conferences. Oklahoma was idle last week but the Sooners fell 4 spots in these rankings from 3rd to 7th. Oklahoma is 5-0 vs. FBS teams and 3-0 against teams from BCS conferences. Nevada moved into the rankings this week at #8, but I kept the Wolf Pack behind the Sooners despite the fact that they have 1 more win overall than Oklahoma. Nevada is 5-0 vs. FBS teams but just 1-0 against teams from BCS conferences.

Boise State climbed into the rankings at #9 this week. The Broncos are 5-0 vs. FBS teams but just 2-0 against teams from BCS conferences. Utah got into the rankings at #10 this week. The Utes are 5-0 vs. teams from the FBS but just 2-0 against BCS teams.

The College Football Blog: 2010 Power Rankings (After Week 6)

Power Rankings after Week 6

1. Oregon 6-0 (2nd)
2. Ohio State 6-0 (3rd)
3. Alabama 5-1 (1st)
4. Oklahoma 5-0 (4th)
5. Boise State 5-0 (6th)
6. TCU 6-0 (7th)
7. Nebraska 5-0 (8th)
8. Auburn 6-0 (10th)
9. South Carolina 4-1 (11th)
10. Arkansas 4-1 (12th)
11. Iowa 4-1 (9th)
12. Stanford 5-1 (13th)
13. Michigan State 6-0 (14th)
14. LSU 6-0 (NR)
15. Florida 4-2 (5th)

Out: Arizona (15th).

Explanation: The first major shakeup in my power rankings this week. While only 1 team fell out of my rankings this week, 14 of the 15 spots changed. Starting with the biggest story, Alabama fell out of 1st after being ranked #1 in my preseason power rankings and the first 5 power rankings of the season. I only dropped the Tide 2 spots to 3rd. While I have to admit that I was surprised that they fell to South Carolina, it was the 3rd consecutive very tough game for Bama, and I still think they are one of the very best teams in the country. I might have even considered keeping Bama at #1 if they had been in the game until the final play, but they ended up losing by 14. Again, I was a bit surprised that Bama lost, and I was shocked that they lost by 14 points.

Even if Bama had lost a very tight game at South Carolina, I probably still would have moved them down to 3rd because there were 2 legitimate teams right below them. Oregon is now #1 in my rankings, moving up a spot from 2nd after their somewhat lackluster win over Washington State. I moved Ohio State up a spot from 3rd to 2nd after the Buckeyes ran over Indiana at home. The only team who stayed in place this week was Oklahoma, as the Sooners were idle last week.

Clearly I would not be popular with the fans of non-BCS teams this week. Boise State crushed Toledo to get to 5-0 but I only moved them up 1 spot from 6th to 5th. Similarly, TCU destroyed Wyoming to move to 6-0, but I only bumped them up 1 spot from 7th to 6th. I’ve said all along that I think both TCU and Boise State are great teams, but I still think the top teams from the bigger conferences are a little bit better.

I gained confidence that Nebraska is as good as I thought they were last Thursday, as the Cornhuskers smashed KSU on the road. I moved the Cornhuskers up 1 spot in my rankings from 8th to 7th. Nebraska is 5-0 and they have a surprise Heisman candidate in Taylor Martinez. Auburn held off Kentucky to get to 6-0 and move up 2 spots in my rankings from 10th to 8th. South Carolina got one of the biggest wins of the season last week, knocking off Bama by 14 points. I moved the Gamecocks up 2 spots from 11th to 9th in my rankings. Arkansas won on a neutral field over Texas A&M and I moved the Hogs up 2 spots in my rankings from 12th to 10th.

Iowa was idle last week but I moved the Hawkeyes down 2 spots from 9th to 11th. The SEC teams that I moved ahead of the Hawkeyes have all been impressive so far this season. Also, Iowa’s only impressive win so far this season has been over Penn State, and the Nittany Lions just got blown out at home by Illinois. Iowa’s loss this season came at Arizona, and the Wildcats just lost at home to Oregon State.

Stanford just barely survived at home against USC last week to move to 5-1 and I bumped them up a spot in my rankings from 13th to 12th. Michigan State moved to 6-0 with a huge win over Michigan. I moved the Spartans up a spot in my rankings from 14th to 13th.

LSU jumped back into my rankings this week after yet another close win. They are now 6-0 and their win at Florida was impressive enough to get to 14th in my rankings. It might seem like I’m being a little hard on the Tigers, but two weeks ago they needed a penalty to beat Tennessee at the buzzer at home. The Gators lost their 2nd straight game last week, and they are clearly having a harder time adapting to life without Tim Tebow than I expected. Still, I think the Gators are one of the most talented teams in the country, and they were a lucky fake field goal away from beating LSU last weekend. The Gators plummeted 10 spots in my rankings this week, falling from 5th to 15th, but they stayed in my power rankings. The only team to fall out of my rankings was the previous #15 team, Arizona. The Wildcats proved again that they are not ready for primetime, as they fell at home to Oregon State for their first loss of the year.

The Braves Blog: The End

It's All Over

There will be plenty of time to discuss this series, this season, and indeed the entire era of Braves baseball under Bobby Cox. But for now, goodbye, and thanks. Thanks for another great year.

The Braves Blog: Down 0-1 in the NLDS

Before we get to tonight’s game I have some thoughts on game 1.

Played out basically as expected: There was little about last night’s game that was surprising. Lincecum’s strikeout total may have been higher than expected but it wasn’t totally surprising. For a variety of reasons, the Braves lineup at this point is much more susceptible to being dominated by a power pitcher than the lineup was in May. Rick Ankiel, Brooks Conrad, Matt Diaz, and Alex Gonzalez are all free swingers who have trouble laying off high hard ones, and they weren’t in the lineup during the first few months. Also, Jason Heyward has a tendency to get overpowered at times, and at this point in his career, Derek Lee has a hard time catching up with heat. I mentioned yesterday that it was to the Giants’ advantage that their staff was built on power pitching because power pitching is what traditionally works in the playoffs.

Atlanta’s offensive struggle wasn’t the only thing that played out as expected last night. The Giants struggled with runners in scoring position and double plays just as they did during the regular season. As I wrote yesterday, the Giants don’t give the lead up once they grab it, and there was no hint of a comeback last night. I said yesterday that the Braves’ defense was my biggest worry going into the series, and unfortunately my fear proved to be well founded.
Still some questions with the lineup: I didn’t have a problem with Bobby Cox going with Matt Diaz in left even against a right handed starter. However, I continue to be mystified by Bobby’s insistence on putting Ankiel in the starting lineup. Ankiel is the weakest hitter on the Braves roster. His defensive prowess is also greatly overstated. He may well be the best defensive centerfielder that the Braves have, but as he proved again last night, he’s not nearly good enough to justify having him in the lineup. Yes, he has a super arm, but he isn’t much better than Nate McLouth in any other aspect of his defense. I was also puzzled by the decision to hit Alex Gonzalez 5th in the lineup. Granted, regardless of where Cox hit Gonzo last night it wouldn’t have made a difference in the final score, but that’s really not the point. Why would you have a guy who finished the season 2 for his last 35 batting 5th in the order? I don’t care that he was 3 for 7 with a homer in his career of Lincecum. 7 at bats over the course of a few years are not as relevant as his last 35 at bats.

More managerial questions: Look, I know that we’re supposed to be appreciating Cox right now, and trust me, I do appreciate Mr. Cox, but that doesn’t mean I agree with all of his maneuvers. There were a lot of different things that led to the Giants eventual game winning run in the critical 4th inning. I think a managerial error by Bobby was one of the causes. I thought the intentional walk of Pablo Sandoval with 2 out and a runner at 2nd was out of the blue and very hard to justify. I know that I’m second guessing here, but I was first guessing last night. What possible reason could there be to walk Sandoval in that situation? Sandoval had looked terrible striking out in the 2nd inning, while Cody Ross led off the 3rd with a walk. In the 4th, Lowe gave up a leadoff single to Buster Posey but then got Pat Burrell and Juan Uribe swinging to bring up Sandoval with two out, a runner at 2nd, and Cody Ross on deck. Sandoval is a better hitter against righties than lefties, and there was a right hander on deck, but the split differences are not enough to justify the move (or even consider it). First base was open but it didn’t much matter because there were already 2 outs and you didn’t need the force with the slow hitting Sandoval about to bat. Yes, Sandoval was now 4 for 11 in his career off of Lowe (2 for 7 this year), but so what? Ross was 3 for 10 in his career off of Lowe (including 3 hits in his last 4 at bats off of him) and 1 for 2 this season. Pablo Sandoval hit .224 with a .274 OBP in September/October. He hit .208 with a .289 OBP with RISP this season. He hit .238 with a .310 OBP (8 intentional walks included, as he often hits 8th) with 2 out. He hit just .182 with a .318 OBP (8 IBB included) with 2 out and RISP. As for Ross, he hit .288/.354 since coming to San Fran and he ended the season 15 for his last 38 (.395/.439). He batted .264/.343 with RISP this season. With 2 out he hit .283/.343. He hit only .215/.311 with RISP and 2 out, but again, Sandoval hit .182/.318 in those spots and was helped by 8 IBB. The bottom line is that this wasn’t the move to make. This is just my perception, but it looked to me like Lowe wasn’t happy with the move either. Ross ended up getting the “hit” to left that scored the game’s only run. Infante should have made the play, but I don’t think Sandoval would have even made contact.

The situation in the field: Again, the one thing that had me most concerned about our chances in this series was the defense. You just get a feeling of hopelessness because there’s really nothing the Braves can do about it. Brooks Conrad simply isn’t a Major League caliber defensive infielder, at any position, period. Everybody boots a ball from time to time, but Brooksy made an error last night on a ball that most Major League second basemen will field cleanly 999 out of 1,000 times. In a scoreless game, in the playoffs, most second basemen will make that play 1,000 out of 1,000 times. I don’t mean to sound harsh because I love Conrad and it’s not his fault that he’s been forced into this spot, but when the ball is hit to him he reminds me of when my coaches tried to play me at 3rd base in the 2nd season of “Majors.” It’s total panic. The only thought is to stop the ball and somehow or another get it to somebody else as quickly as possible. Most infielders have made every play so many times that it’s just 2nd nature, they don’t even have to think about it. There’s nothing routine about Conrad’s mechanics. Omar Infante is good enough at second but he’s clearly not comfortable at third base and he’s not very reliable there. Last night, with 2 out and a runner at first in the 1st inning, Posey hit a one hop grounder to Infante. With the runner going on contact and the catcher running to first, the safest play was obviously to throw to first, but Infante went to 2nd where the play was relatively close. We saw Conrad do the same thing in the final series of the season and it ended in disaster. Then in the 2nd inning Infante short armed a throw across to first and Lee had to go to a knee and make an excellent play to save an error on a routine ground ball. And of course, in the 4th inning, Infante could not make the play on Ross’ ground ball that ended up going as a hit to drive in the only run of the game. It wasn’t a routine play, but it was certainly a play that you would expect a third baseman to make 9 out of 10 times. It’s going to be absolutely terrifying ever time there is a ground ball hit when we are in the field. And this is a problem because our pitchers are ground ball guys.

The situation in the infield is miserable because there’s nothing you can do about it. The more befuddling issue is how the Braves ended up without a single player that is reliable defensively in the outfield. There were 2 balls hit to center field last night and Rick Ankiel—supposedly the Braves best defensive outfielder and a guy whose glove is so valuable it makes up for the fact that he is a complete zero at the plate—looked like a guy who had never shagged a fly ball in his life on both chances. On a semi-line drive into medium right center by Andres Torres in the 5th he fell down while catching the ball. Then in the next inning he went back on a deep fly ball to straight away center hit by Posey and flat out missed it. Was it an easy play to make? No. But any good center fielder makes that play, certainly one who plays every day in spite of a .210 batting average and a 2.83 AB/K ratio. The ball was not hit over his head. He got to the spot and missed it. Then he flubbed the ball while trying to pick it up and Posey made it all the way to 3rd. Within the last 2 weeks we have seen Jason Heyward, Melkey Cabrera, and Nate McLouth all make more than 1 bad play in the outfield. We all know the limitations of Matt Diaz in the field. Hinske is okay but fielding is clearly not his strong point. I just don’t know how this occurred, because 4 of those players—Cabrera, McLouth, Heyward, and Ankiel—were billed as at least solid defensive players.

The blown call: Neither the missed call on the stolen base attempt by Posey or the fact that it played a huge role in the outcome of the game was surprising. Had the Braves scored in the 1st inning and the Giants tied it up in the 4th and then gone on to win the game in extra innings it would be one of the hardest losses to accept in Braves postseason history. But the truth of the matter is that the Braves didn’t come very close to scoring last night, and even if the Giants hadn’t scored that inning, the chances of the Braves winning a game that went to extra innings scoreless would not have been very good. It’s true that anything could have happened, but the Giants would have gone into extra innings with their entire bullpen available, while the Braves would have already used Johnny Venters, Peter Moylan, Craig Kimbrell, and Mike Dunn. It’s possible that the Braves would have used Billy Wagner in the 9th as well. All I’m saying is that I don’t we would have won last night even if the correct call had been made.

Obviously, that does not take away from the fact that the Braves lost by 1 run that should never have scored. It was an obvious call that anybody watching could have made. Unfortunately, the guy closest to the play couldn’t see it. This really isn’t hard to believe if you think about it. The umpires are often totally blocked out of the play as a direct result of their close proximity to the action. I’ve long held the belief that the reason there are so many clear cases of blown calls by officials is not that the refs or umps have gotten worse, the problem is that athletes and technology have gotten much better. In football, the speed and complexity of the game is more of an issue than in baseball. Throughout the history of baseball there have always been disputed calls. The reason there seem to be so many obviously missed calls lately is that we now have crystal clear replays of every single action from multiple angles. Thus, disputed calls have become blown calls. We now know almost every time whether or not the umpire got the call right or wrong. There are very few instances when “the guy who had the best look at it” really does have a better look at it than somebody watching on TV.

Of course there are many other factors involved, and there’s no question that the so-called “human element” plays way too much of a role in the game of baseball. There’s been a steady rise in the clamor for instant replay due to the reasons already stated and also because replay is now readily available and in use in so many other sports. I don’t believe we will see instant replay until much further in the future when there is a different “commissioner” at the head of Major League Baseball. We’re just going to have to live with frequent blown calls for the time being. Of course it’s still going to piss us off. While I don’t think complaining does any good, I hope people keep it up in order to annoy Bud Selig as much as possible.

Game 2 Preview

Trends

In yesterday’s blog we discussed how crucial game 1 had been for the Braves during the run of postseason appearances under Bobby Cox. To reiterate, under Bobby Cox the Braves’ chances of winning a series have decreased drastically whenever they have lost game 1. In 14 postseasons from 1991-2005, the Braves were 10-2 in series in which they won game 1, and 2-11 when they lost game 1. The splits were even more drastic in the NLDS, as the Braves were 5-0 in the NLDS when they won game 1, and 1-5 when they lost game 1. The Braves have lost 5 consecutive postseason series going back to game 1 of the 2001 NLDS, and they lost game 1 in each of those series. They have lost in the first round in their last 4 postseason appearances, losing game 1 of the NLDS each time.

Obviously those are troubling numbers for Braves fans, as we lost the crucial game 1 of this series last night. What sucks even harder is that judging by history a win tonight wouldn’t do much to increase our chances in this series. From 1991-2005 the Braves went down 0-1 in a series 13 times, and came back to win game 2 and tie the series 9 of 13 times. However, after losing game 1 and winning game 2 the Braves only went on to win 3 of those 9 series. In fact, during the current streak of 5 consecutive series defeats, the Braves have lost game 1 and won game 2 every time. I guess the lesson is that we can’t get our hopes up if we win tonight’s game. However, if we lose tonight’s game we are really fucked. Under Bobby Cox, the Braves have fallen behind 2-0 in 4 postseason series and have never come back to win.

Keys to Tonight’s Game

Well, not to beat a dead horse but the Braves have to find a way to avoid mistakes in the field. At the plate, it will again be crucial for the Braves to get a lead early in the game. For Tommy Hanson, one key as always will be to avoid 1st and 2nd inning trouble. Also, Hanson can help his teammates out by getting some strikeouts, as that takes fielding out of the equation. While the Giants as a team do not steal many bases, there are a couple of guys in their lineup who can swipe a bag (Aubrey Huff is 7 for 7 and Andres Torres is 26 for 33), and Tommy needs to keep these guys off of first.