Tuesday, November 9, 2010
The College Football Blog: 2010 Power Rankings (After Week 10)
1. Oregon 9-0 (1st)
2. Ohio State 8-1 (3rd)
3. TCU 10-0 (4th)
4. Auburn 10-0 (5th)
5. LSU 8-1 (13th)
6. Alabama 7-2 (2nd)
7. Boise State 8-0 (6th)
8. Wisconsin 8-1 (7th)
9. Arkansas 7-2 (9th)
10. Stanford 8-1 (15th)
11. Nebraska 8-1 (8th)
12. Iowa 7-2 (11th)
13. Michigan State 9-1 (14th)
14. Oklahoma State 8-1 (NR)
15. South Carolina 6-3 (10th)
Out: Oklahoma (12th).
Explanation: There was quite a bit of movement in the rankings this week. I know a lot of people would be critical of my rankings. But remember, I base the rankings on which team would win a head to head matchup, not necessarily on which has the fewest losses.
#1 Oregon. Oregon stayed in the top spot this week following yet another romp in the Pac-10 (this time it was a 53-16 win over Washington). The Ducks are a fairly solid #1 for me. They have a great offensive scheme, the players run that scheme tremendously well, and they have a lot of talent on that side of the ball. That’s a very dangerous combination. Is their defense great? I don’t really know. But you know what? I don’t really know if it matters anymore. Defenses are clearly behind offenses in today’s college game. There seems to be 5 well known offensive gurus for every 1 defensive genius. And the rules place defenses at such a disadvantage these days that it’s just hard not to allow points. Plus, if you score often, and you score quickly, the other team will have more chances to score against your defense too. Oregon is going to be hard to beat.
#2 Ohio State. Then again, many unstoppable offenses have been stopped by great defenses. Ohio State was off last week and the Buckeyes stayed at #2. Ohio State has a loss, but if they can just figure out how to cover a kickoff they will be a very difficult team to beat. They are one of the few teams in the country with a defense capable of slowing down an offense like Oregon, Auburn, or Boise State (if we must). Granted, the Big Ten is not usually a hotbed of dynamic offenses, but again, scoring is up across the board in college (and pro) football. Ohio State has had a reputation for not being able to stop the more athletic, faster offenses once they get out of the Big Ten, but lately they’ve changed that. Sure, they had a bad run there for a while, getting exposed by Florida, USC, and LSU in 3 high profile games. But they slowed down Texas in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl, they slowed down USC early last season, and in last year’s Rose Bowl they slowed down the very Ducks who rank ahead of them in this list.
#3 TCU. Damn. That was an as whipping. The Horned Frogs went on the road and beat fellow unbeaten Utah 47-7 last Saturday to get to 10-0 on the season. I moved TCU up a spot in my rankings this week from 4th to 3rd. TCU’s defense is for real. The Horned Frogs are for real. I actually had them ranked ahead of Texas going into the bowl games last year, and they appear to be just as good this season if not better. And they are going to finish the regular season 12-0 for a second straight season.
#4 Auburn. Despite a totally inconsequential 62-24 win over an FCS team last week, Auburn moved up a spot from 5th to 4th this week. It’s very unusual for me to have the top SEC team ranked behind a Pac-10 team, a Big Ten team, and a team from the Mountain West. I think the top 4 teams are all really close, but I’m still trying to figure out if Auburn’s defense is good. I want to see Auburn play Bama. I want to see if Bama can out physical them. I’m hoping the Tigers are looking ahead to that game and past my Dawgs. Although let me say that I truly hope that Auburn’s season is not negatively affected by the rumors swirling around about Cameron Newton. If they paid a hundred thousand dollars to the kid, Auburn will be more than paid back by the NCAA. But for now the evidence seems unconvincing. All the story is doing now is taking away from our enjoyment as fans.
#5 LSU. The other Tigers made the biggest move in my rankings this week, climbing 8 spots from 13th to 5th after their stunning (in my opinion) win over Alabama. The Tigers are sloppy, they are lucky, and they still don’t seem to know exactly what they are doing on offense, but they sure do win a lot against some tough competition. I can’t hold the Tennessee game against the Tigers forever. LSU’s defense is legit. They held Auburn to only 24 points on the road, and they beat what I still think is a very good Alabama team last week.
#6 Alabama. Speaking of Bama, they took a fall in my rankings following that loss at LSU, but not as big of a fall as most people would expect. I moved the Tide down 4 spots in my rankings from 2nd to 6th. I know that they’ve lost twice, but again, I’m looking at a head to head matchup on a neutral field, and there still aren’t many teams that I would pick to beat Alabama in that situation.
#7 Boise State. For example, I’m still taking Alabama over Boise State on a neutral field if the game means everything to both teams. That’s my justification for moving the Broncos down a spot this week from 6th to 7th, despite the fact that they absolutely squashed Hawaii last week, 42-7, to remain unbeaten. LSU’s win over Bama really impressed me, but it didn’t really sour me on the Tide that much. Thus, I have to go with the top 3 SEC teams over Boise State.
#8 Wisconsin. I also moved the Badgers down a spot from 8th to 7th for the same reasons, even though they won easily at Purdue to get to 8-1.
#9 Arkansas. The Hogs got a huge win on the road over South Carolina last week, but they stayed at 9th in my rankings for the same reasons. By the way, I love that Bobby Petrino has gotten absolutely hammered by the officiating throughout his career in the SEC to this point. I mean they get screwed on an absolutely brutal call at least once every week. It’s awesome. It’s as if the refs somehow know that they ought to use up all of their horribly blown calls against him, because he deserves nothing better.
#10 Stanford. The other team making a big move up my rankings this week is Stanford, who throttled Arizona to improve to 8-1. I moved the Indians up 5 spots in my rankings from 15th to 10th. I was down on Stanford a few weeks ago after they came off of a bye week and only managed to beat Wazu by 10 points. Since then they have won at Washington and at home against Arizona by a combined score of 83-17.
#11 Nebraska. I still don’t know about Nebraska. They had to stop Iowa State on a 2-pt conversion try in OT last week to avoid falling to the Cyclones for the 2nd year in a row. While they managed to escape against Iowa State this season, I don’t think the Cornhuskers are as good as they were last season. I moved Nebraska down 3 spots this week from 8th to 11th.
#12 Iowa. Speaking of avoiding disaster (for the 2nd year in a row) and not being as good as last year’s team, I moved Iowa down a spot from 11th to 12th this week after they needed a dropped pass in the end zone to avoid losing to Indiana on Saturday. The Hawkeyes need to stop sleeping on the Hoosiers.
#13 Michigan State. The Spartans moved up a spot from 14th to 13th in this week’s rankings. They had a bad game against Iowa two weeks ago, no doubt. But they got back on track with an easy 31-8 win over Minnesota last Saturday.
#14 Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are the only new team in my top 15 this week, and they are a team that I misjudged as badly as any other this season. I thought Oklahoma State would fall off this season and would have to take a year to reload. Not quite. They look like the best team in the Big XII South right now. Okie State hammered fellow Big XII South upstart Baylor on Saturday to get to 8-1 on the year and jump into my power rankings at #14.
#15 South Carolina. I really had to dig deep and think hard about who my #15 team was this week. I ended up going with the Gamecocks, even though their performance at home against Arkansas last week had to be one of the most disappointing of Steve Spurrier’s tenure in Columbia. You couldn’t blame this one on the health of Marcus Lattimore, Arkansas simply nullified him. South Carolina not only lost at home to the Hogs, they got run over, 41-20. Still, it wasn’t enough for me to drop the Gamecocks all the way out of the top 15. They fell 5 spots from 10th to 15th. It came down to South Carolina or Mississippi State and I went with SC, although it was basically a coin flip.
The only team to fall out of the top 15 this week was Oklahoma. They might be the most disappointing team in the country for the second year in a row. They lost for the 2nd time in the last 3 weeks on Saturday night, losing by 14 points on the road against Texas A&M. The Sooners scored only 19 points. Oklahoma had been 12th, but they fell out of my rankings this week, primarily because I’m not sure I’d favor them against anybody on a neutral field right now.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
The Baseball Blog: 2010 MLB Awards
An unusual and surprising MLB season is in the books. That means it’s time for my annual awards. These are mostly self-explanatory. For further explanation as to how I choose the winners, see last year’s MLB awards blog. These are basically the same as last season in structure with just a few additions. Just for fun I decided to dedicate some of my awards (in the same way that the award for the league’s best pitcher is dedicated to Cy Young). The only major addition to the awards this year is actually a bit dicey. I’m taking the brave step of handing out some defensive awards this season. Take those with a grain or two (or 1,000) of salt. All of the other awards are pretty much the same as last year.
As for the process of picking the awards this season, there was one major difference: it was much, much harder. I couldn’t believe it. Last season there were many awards which were not even close. This season I was tempted to go with a tie on every other award. Not only did this make the entire process more difficult, it also made it less enjoyable because I just didn’t have as much conviction in my selections.
But enough waxing and whining. On with it.
Traditional Awards
American League Most Valuable Player
Winner: Josh Hamilton (LF-Texas)
Runner-up: Miguel Cabrera (1B-Detroit)
Third Place: (Tie) Jose Bautista (RF-Toronto)/Paul Konerko (1B-Chicago White Sox)
Comments: This one was essentially a tossup. Bautista and Konerko were both good choices for 3rd and I ended up splitting it between them. I did not want to split the 1st place award between Hamilton and Cabrera. The voters will likely be swayed by the “human element” story and vote for Hamilton, but that didn’t factor into my decision at all. Cabrera and Hamilton were both worthy of the award. I tried not to have any 1st place ties, so I had to choose one and I went with Hamilton. He led the AL in batting, Slugging, OPS, and Runs Created per 27 outs. Hamilton’s late season rib injury was a big part of what made this such a hard decision. That threw a wrench in the system because Hamilton ended up playing 28 games less than Cabrera. In the end I did not think it was enough to cost him the award.
Defense was not really a factor here other than to say that Hamilton plays a tougher position in the field. Cabrera may actually be underrated defensively, while Hamilton is likely overrated in that department. Cabrera is not a bad first baseman. Hamilton is not an elite defensive outfielder. To begin with, he’s primarily a left fielder now and not a center fielder. And while he’s known for making diving catches, that doesn’t always equate to great defense.
In contrast to the writers who vote for this award, I only use the issue of playing for a winning team or a contender as a sort of tie-breaker, and so Hamilton helping lead the Rangers to the World Series was part of what put him on top for me. While Hamilton’s play in the postseason overall was a bit disappointing (11 for 58, .190/.319/.466/.784), he won the ALCS MVP, going 7 for 20 with a double, 4 homers, 7 RBI, 6 runs, 3 SB in 3 attempts, 8 walks and only 4 K’s. And for me, beating the Yankees in the ALCS was the biggest achievement in Texas Rangers history. One other factor that pushed Hamilton on top for me was his numbers in some of the so-called “clutch” areas. Josh Hamilton, good readers, led the AL with a .369 batting average with runners in scoring position (min. 100 PA), and he was 2nd in the AL with a .379 batting average with RISP and 2 out (min. 50 PA).
National League Most Valuable Player
Winner: Albert Pujols (1B-St. Louis)
Runner-up: Joey Votto (1B-Cincinnati)
Third Place: Carlos Gonzalez (LF-Colorado)
Comments: This was almost the exact same situation as the AL. Carlos Gonzalez had a tremendous year. He was a very solid 3rd, finishing 3rd in OPS, 3rd in RC, and 3rd in RC/27. The top spot had to go to either Votto or Pujols. My first reaction was to go with Votto, as he finished 2nd in the NL in batting, and led the league in OBP, SLG, OPS, and RC/27. He also led the Reds to their first division title since 1995, outlasting Pujols’ Cardinals in the NL Central.
That seems like a slam-dunk case for giving the award to Votto. But consider Al’s numbers. He was 6th in batting, 2nd in OBP, 3rd in SLG, 2nd in OPS, 2nd in RC/27, and he led the NL in Runs Created. He also led the NL in homers, RBI, runs, extra base hits, times on base, intentional walks, and AB/HR. He was 2nd in total bases and 2nd in walks. He was 10th in the power/speed stat and (amazingly) 9th in AB/K. Pujols and Votto were basically 1 or 2 in many of the more popular (but not that easy to understand) sabermetric categories. Pujols was tops in the NL in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) among all players, including pitchers, and he was also #1 in WAR with defense taken out of the equation.
While Votto’s OPS was 13 points higher than Pujols, when the home parks are taken into consideration, they had nearly identical numbers (Adjusted OPS). Both players were excellent in the “clutch” categories. Pujols gets the edge in defense. Votto is an average fielding first baseman, while Pujols is (in my opinion) the best in the NL and perhaps the game. In the end I felt like this was as close to a tossup as the AL situation. I gave the nod to Pujols based on his overall excellence in power, contact, batting eye, power/speed combo, and defense.
American League Cy Young
Winner: Felix Hernandez (SP-Seattle)
Runner-up: Jered Weaver (SP-Anaheim)
Third Place: (Tie) Clay Buchholz (SP-Boston)/David Price (SP-Tampa Bay)
Comments: I went into this one expecting Felix Hernandez to be an easy winner, but it didn’t turn out that way. There were just so many good candidates this season. While I pay attention to the win-loss record of a pitcher, it isn’t one of the main things I look at because it just doesn’t normally represent how well a guy pitched in an accurate way. Thus, it doesn’t bother me at all that my top 2 AL guys each went 13-12 on the season.
There were about 8 solid candidates for the AL Cy Young, which is pretty ridiculous. A case could be made for Hernandez, Weaver, Price, Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, or Justin Verlander. In the end I narrowed the field down to the 4 listed above (Hernandez, Weaver, Buchholz, and Price) and eventually went with King Felix. He led the AL in ERA, innings pitched, Quality Starts, Quality Start Percentage, batting average against, OPS against, and WAR for pitchers. He was 2nd in WHIP and 2nd in K’s. He was 3rd in Complete Games, OBP against, and Slugging against. He was tied for 3rd in Shutouts. He was also 7th in K/BB and K/9. While other pitchers were better than Hernandez in certain areas, he had the best overall year.
National League Cy Young
Winner: Roy Halladay (SP-Philadelphia)
Runner-up: Adam Wainwright (SP-St. Louis)
Third Place: Ubaldo Jimenez (SP-Colorado)
Comments: Yet another impossible decision. There was a slew of worthy candidates for the NL Cy Young. There were 6 pitchers who deserved consideration: Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Tim Hudson, and Ubaldo Jimenez. Eventually I narrowed the list down to the 3 listed above (Halladay, Wainwright, and Jimenez). You could make a very good case for any of those 3 winning the award. Jimenez had a ridiculous start to the season, and while he couldn’t keep up the pace, he still ended up having a splendid year. However, he wound up 8th in ERA, 10th in WHIP, and 7th in innings pitched.
It came down to Halladay or Wainwright. Wainwright excelled in almost all meaningful starting pitching categories, finishing in the top 5 in ERA, WHIP, K’s, IP, CG, SHO, QS, QS%, K/BB, Wins, H/9, and BB/9. He was also 10th in K/9. However, Halladay just had the stronger year. He was the toughest starting pitcher in the NL this season and the closest thing left to an old school ace. Doc Halladay led the NL in IP, K/BB, BB/9, and Wins. He was a few levels ahead of the rest of the league in Complete Games and Shutouts, tossing 9 CG (4 better than the next man) and 4 SHO (2 better than the next man). Halladay was 3rd in ERA, 2nd in WHIP, and 2nd in K’s. He was tied for 1st in QS and tied for 2nd in QS%. Doc was also at the top of almost all of the sabermetric stats. Halladay also pitched in a band box all season. He threw a perfect game against the Marlins. He helped lead the Phillies to a division title and then threw a no-hitter against the NL’s best hitting team in his first ever postseason appearance. It was close, but Halladay was the top pitcher.
American League Rolaids Relief
Winner: Rafael Soriano (Closer-Tampa Bay)
Runner-up: Joakim Soria (Closer-Kansas City)
Third Place: (Tie) Neftali Feliz (Closer-Texas)/Mariano Rivera (Closer-New York Yankees)
Comments: This was not an easy choice either. I went with Soriano in the end, as he led the AL in Saves, converting 45 of 48, helping lead the Rays to the AL East title ahead of the Yankees and Sox. Among AL pitchers with at least 20 IP, Soriano was 2nd in WHIP and 5th in ERA.
National League Rolaids Relief
Winner: Heath Bell (Closer-San Diego)
Runner-up: Brian Wilson (Closer-San Francisco)
Third Place: Billy Wagner (Closer-Atlanta)
Comments: I know I’m repeating myself, but this was a hard choice to make. It was really a 3-man race. In many ways, Billy Wagner had the most dominating season. Among NL pitchers with at least 40 IP, Wagner was 2nd in ERA, 5th in WHIP, 2nd in K/9, 3rd in batting average against, 5th in OBP against, 4th in SLG against, and 2nd in OPS against. However, due to a few mistakes by himself and by his defensive mates, Wagner was only 37 of 44 in save tries. That’s not so bad, but it wasn’t as good as the top 2 guys.
Brian Wilson led the NL in Saves with 48 and was 5th in ERA (min. 40 IP). He wound up being perhaps the most feared closer in the game, as he was simply automatic late in the year and in October, helping lead the G-Men to the world championship. However, despite the fact that Wilson’s Giants chased down and held off the Padres, Heath Bell deserved this award. He converted 47 of 50 save chances (94.0%) for the Padds (Wilson converted 48 of 53 for a 90.6% success rate). He also had a 6-1 record and was 7th in the NL in ERA.
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Neftali Feliz (Closer-Texas)
Runner-up: Austin Jackson (CF-Detroit)
Third Place: Brian Matusz (SP-Baltimore)
Comments: Finally an easy one. Neftali Feliz was the runaway winner, making 70 appearances and converting 40 of 43 save chances for the eventual AL champs. He had a 2.73 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP, while also averaging more than a strikeout per inning. Jackson had an okay season. Matusz finished 3rd by default.
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Buster Posey (C-San Francisco)
Runner-up: Jayson Heyward (RF-Atlanta)
Third Place: (Tie) Jaime Garica (SP-St. Louis)/John Axford (Closer-Milwaukee)
Comments: This one was very tough. It was particularly tough for me being a Braves fan. In the end there was just no escaping the conclusion that Posey was the answer. Early on it looked like Heyward was a sure thing, but he couldn’t keep up the pace of his hot start, and eventually several guys began to challenge him. Heyward was negatively affected by a thumb injury that caused him to miss time and limited his play throughout the rest of the year. To be sure, Heyward still wound up having a tremendous rookie season, hitting .277/.393/.456/.849 with 18 homers, 29 doubles, 5 triples, 72 RBI, and 91 walks. The walk totals and on-base numbers were particularly impressive. Heyward had by far and away the most walks of any NL rookie, and among NL rookies with at least 350 PA he was 1st in OBP and 2nd in OPS.
Posey didn’t even start the season in the big leagues, but once he arrived he thrived. Posey ended up hitting .305/.357/.505/.862 with 18 homers and 67 RBI. Among NL rookies with at least 350 PA, Posey was 2nd in batting, 2nd in OBP, 2nd in SLG, and 1st in OPS. He did all of this while playing catcher, working with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. He finished 4th in the NL in Caught Stealing Percentage. And of course he helped lead the Giants to their first World Series title in San Francisco, going 17 for 59 in the postseason to hit .288 with a homer, 3 doubles, and 5 RBI.
Something should be said for Jaime Garcia, who had a super rookie season as a starting pitcher, going 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA. But Garcia’s year wasn’t good enough to place him ahead of the everyday players. Also, in almost complete anonymity, John Axford made 50 appearances for the Brew Crew, converting 24 of 27 save tries with 3 holds, an 8-2 record, 76 K over 58 innings, a 2.48 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP. That’s pretty damn solid.
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Ron Washington (Texas)
Runner-up: Ron Gardenhire (Minnesota)
Third Place: (Tie) Joe Girardi (New York Yankees)/Joe Maddon (Tampa Bay)
Comments: These awards are always a bit weird because you just don’t have much hard evidence. All you really have is the success/failure of the manager’s team. Outside of that you have to make like an old school manager and go with your gut. I actually did not want to give the award to Ron Washington. I like Washington because he seems like he’d be a fun guy to play for, and I was pulling for him because of the whole ya-yo thing. However, I don’t know if Washington is the best in-game manager. The Rangers were on TV a lot this season, and I found myself questioning Washington many times, particularly in the postseason. I do think he is a great day-to-day manager, like Bobby Cox. He’s a good leader. And he led the Rangers to their greatest season in history, so that counts for something. Plus, there really wasn’t another great candidate. Gardenhire did a tremendous job again, as the Twins were hit with a number of crushing injuries, yet they once again found a way to October. But I had to give this one to Washington, as his team surprised many (including me) by finally getting back to October and by actually doing something this time.
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Bobby Cox (Atlanta)
Runner-up: Bruce Bochy (San Francisco)
Third Place: Bud Black (San Diego)
Comments: Are any biases at play here? Probably. But who cares? And my choice is totally legit anyway. Cox led an undermanned team to the postseason, as the Braves overcame a slow start, a late season slump, and a slew of crucial 2nd half injuries. Bruce Bochy is not my favorite manager. At times I thought the Giants succeeded in the playoffs in spite of Bochy more than because of anything good that he did. However, you can’t deny that he led a team with an underwhelming roster to the world championship. They did it by chasing down the Padres in the NL West. I still give Bud Black a lot of credit, even though the Padres choked down the stretch and missed the playoffs. The Padres had no business finishing over .500 this season, and yet they won 90 games, just 1 less than the Braves and Reds, and only 2 fewer than the eventual WS winning Giants.
I’m sure you’ve noticed that Dusty Baker is completely omitted from the top 3. It may seem that I’m being contradictory, giving Cox and Washington credit for being good day-to-day managers even if they aren’t necessarily the best in-game managers, and then not giving Dusty the same credit. This may be true. Baker has taken the Giants, Cubs, and Reds—three teams who had not had a lot of recent success before he arrived—to the postseason. The evidence is hard to dismiss. Baker should get some credit. But Baker is still not a great manager, and in many instances he is a total buffoon. I simply refuse to vote Baker (who has already won several MOY awards too many for my taste) into my top 3. I already admitted that there were some biases here. This award is mostly opinion based anyway.
Other Awards (National/American)
American League Middle Relief Pitcher of the Year
Winner: Joaquin Benoit (RP-Tampa Bay)
Runner-up: Daniel Bard (RP-Boston)
Third Place: Scott Downs (RP-Toronto)
Comments: This one wasn’t so hard for me. Benoit was the best high-leverage situation pitcher in the game this season. He made 63 appearances, fanning 75 over 60.1 innings with only 11 walks, and posting a 1.34 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP. He had 1 save and 25 holds, with only 3 blown saves.
National League Middle Relief Pitcher of the Year
Winner: Hong-Chih Kuo (RP-Los Angeles)
Runner-up: Luke Gregerson (RP-San Diego)
Third Place: Mike Adams (RP-San Diego)
Comments: This one was also fairly easy for me. Kuo made 56 appearances and had a 1.20 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP over 60 innings. He struck out 73 with only 18 walks, and notched 12 saves and 21 holds with only 1 blown save.
American League Rookie Pitcher of the Year
Winner: Neftali Feliz (Closer-Texas)
Runner-up: Brian Matusz (SP-Baltimore)
Third Place: Wade Davis (SP-Tampa Bay)
Comments: Obviously this was an easy choice. Feliz was one of the best closers in the game, while Matusz and Davis finished 2nd and 3rd by default.
National League Rookie Pitcher of the Year
Winner: (Tie) Jaime Garcia (SP-St. Louis)/John Axford (Closer-Milwaukee)
Third Place: Johnny Venters (RP-Atlanta)
Comments: Garcia and Axford both had very impressive rookie seasons. While most people would give the award to Garcia because he is a starter, I decided to split the award. Garcia had a very good ERA but some of his numbers weren’t that impressive (1.32 WHIP).
American League Rookie Position Player of the Year
Winner: Austin Jackson (CF-Detroit)
Runner-up: John Jaso (C-Tampa Bay)
Third Place: Brennan Boesch (RF-Detroit)
Comments: This wasn’t a hard choice. Jackson wasn’t great, but he was the only AL rookie that played every day. And he had a decent first year, hitting .293 with 34 doubles, 10 triples, and 27 stolen bases. He led all AL rookies in RC by a mile. And he played a very good center field.
National League Rookie Position Player of the Year
Winner: Buster Posey (C-San Francisco)
Runner-up: Jayson Heyward (RF-Atlanta)
Third Place: Mike Stanton (RF-Florida)
Comments: This was basically all covered in the NL ROY section.
American League Executive of the Year
Winner: Jon Daniels (Texas)
Runner-up: Jim Smith (Minnesota)
Third Place: Brian Cashman (New York Yankees)
Comments: Another award based largely on a team’s success or failure, although we have more evidence to work with here than we do with the managers. The award for Daniels is based partly on the work he did this season and partly on his work building this Rangers team. Obviously, acquiring Cliff Lee when it looked certain that he was heading to New York was gigantic. And remember that Daniels has been working for a franchise that was going through bankruptcy proceedings and a change of ownership. I also don’t think Daniels gets enough credit, as he is greatly overshadowed by Nolan Ryan.
National League Executive of the Year
Winner: Brian Sabean (San Francisco)
Runner-up: Ruben Amaro (Philadelphia)
Third Place: Frank Wren (Atlanta)
Comments: The Phillies did not get back to the World Series this season, but it wasn’t because Amaro failed to build a team capable of doing it. The players just didn’t get it done. Sabean is going to get a lot of credit and he should. There was a lot of fluke in SF’s world championship run (sorry but there was), but it really doesn’t matter. Sabean’s moves worked. He built this pitching staff, he brought Posey up (finally), he brought in Aubrey Huff during the offseason, and he brought on Pat Burrell and Cody Ross during the season. He deserves credit.
Other Awards (Major League)
The Barry Bonds Award
Major League Baseball Player of the Year
Winner: Josh Hamilton (LF-Texas)
Runner-up: Miguel Cabrera (1B-Detroit)
Third Place: Albert Pujols (1B-St. Louis)
Comments: Much of this was explained earlier. Hamilton led all of baseball in RC/27, batting, Slugging, and OPS.
The Bob Gibson Award
Major League Baseball Starting Pitcher of the Year
Winner: Roy Halladay (SP-Philadelphia)
Runner-up: Felix Hernandez (SP-Seattle)
Third Place: Adam Wainwright (SP-St. Louis)
Comments: This was a close one but I went with Halladay for the same reasons that I went with him over Wainwright for NL Cy Young. He is the closest thing to a true old school ace that there is in the game today. He led all of baseball in IP, CG, and SHO. He was tied for 1st in wins, 5th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, and tied for 5th in K’s.
The Jesse Orosco Award
Major League Baseball Middle Reliever of the Year
Winner: Hong-Chih Kuo (RP-Los Angeles)
Runner-up: Joaquin Benoit (RP-Tampa Bay)
Third Place: Luke Gregerson (RP-San Diego)
Comments: It was very hard to choose between Kuo and Benoit. I went with Kuo because of his versatility, saving 12 and recording 21 holds with only 1 blown save.
The Mariano Rivera Award
Major League Baseball Closer of the Year
Winner: Rafael Soriano (Closer-Tampa Bay)
Runner-up: Joakim Soria (Closer-Kansas City)
Third Place: Heath Bell (Closer-San Diego)
Comments: This was mostly explained earlier. The NL closers were not as dominant as Soriano.
The Bob Hamelin Award
Major League Baseball Rookie Position Player of the Year
Winner: Buster Bosey (C-San Francisco)
Runner-up: Jason Heyward (RF-Atlanta)
Third Place: Mike Stanton (RF-Florida)
Comments: This was explained earlier. There were no great candidates in the AL. In fact, there were at least 8, and as many as 10 National League rookie position players who would have ranked ahead of the best AL rookie position player.
The Scott Williamson Award
Major League Baseball Rookie Pitcher of the Year
Winner: Neftali Feliz (Closer-Texas)
Runner-up: (Tie) Jaime Garcia (SP-St. Louis)/John Axford (Closer-Milwaukee)
Comments: This wasn’t a no-brainer at first glance, but Feliz was really the clear choice. He was the most dominant rookie pitcher this season.
The Ben Grieve Award
Major League Baseball Rookie of the Year
Winner: Neftali Feliz (Closer-Texas)
Runner-up: Buster Posey (C-San Francisco)
Third Place: Jason Heyward (RF-Atlanta)
Comments: This award might have gone to Posey if he had played the full season in the Majors.
The Sparky Anderson Award
Major League Baseball Manager of the Year
Winner: Bobby Cox (Atlanta)
Runner-up: Bruce Bochy (San Francisco)
Third Place: Ron Washington (Texas)
Comments: Bobby Cox doesn’t always make the best decisions in the postseason, but he sure knows how to get the best out of his players, and he knows how to get a team to play together and for each other.
The John Schuerholz Award
Major League Baseball Executive of the Year
Winner: Brian Sabean (San Francisco)
Runner-up: John Daniels (Texas)
Third Place: Ruben Amaro (Philadelphia)
Comments: The criticism came down on Sabean again this season, but this time his moves worked.
The Matt Stairs Award
Major League Baseball Pinch Hitter of the Year
Winner: Chris Heisey (Cincinnati)
Runner-up: Eric Hinske (Atlanta)
Third Place: Ryan Spilborghs (Colorado)
Comments: This Heisey guy was big for Cinci. I had no idea he existed until he took Billy Wagner deep in the 9th inning of a game in May, tying the score at 4-4 against my Bravos. We ended up winning in the bottom half of the 9th, and I figured he was a scrub and soon forgot about him. But then in late July, Heisey robbed Brooks Conrad of a pinch hit homer with 2-out in the top of the 9th in a 4-4 game. In the bottom of the 9th he singled with one out but was left stranded, and we eventually won 6-4 in 10. Anyway, Heisey was a force late in the game for Cinci. He had only 29 PA as a pinch hitter, but had 8 hits, 4 BB, a HBP, a SF, a triple, 4 homers, 7 RBI and 7 runs. He hit .348/.448/.957/1.405 as a pinch hitter.
Hinske was also great and he was used much more often in a pinch. In 54 pinch hit PA, Hinske had 14 hits, 5 BB, 2 HBP, 3 doubles, a triple, 3 homers, 12 RBI, and 13 runs. He struck out only 7 times and hit .298/.389/.596/.985. He had 4 PH PA in the postseason, going 1 for 3 with a 2-run homer and a walk. That dinger was a go-ahead-from-behind shot in the bottom of the 8th of game 3. It should have been a game winner.
The Mark Lemke Award
Major League Baseball Postseason Most Valuable Player
Winner: Tim Lincecum (SP-San Francisco)
Runner-up: Brian Wilson (Closer-San Francisco)
Third Place: (Tie) Matt Cain (SP-San Francisco)/Cody Ross (OF-San Francisco)
Comments: Yeah, so pitching was fairly important to the Giants’ success this season. This wasn’t an easy award to pick. Edgar Renteria came up huge in the World Series and wound up winning the MVP, but in the 2 previous series he went 3 for 18. Cain was almost perfect during the postseason, going 2-0 in 3 starts with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over 21.1 innings. But he still only affected the outcome of 3 games (1 of which the Giants eventually lost) during the postseason. Cody Ross had one of the great surprise postseasons of all-time. He was 15 for 51 with 5 doubles, 5 homers, 7 BB, a HBP, 11 runs, and 10 RBI. Ross batted .294/.390/.686/1.076 during the postseason and was the NLCS MVP.
My first reaction was to give this award to Brian Wilson. He pitched in 10 games for the G-Men in the postseason and San Fran was 9-1 in those games. He was 1-0 with 6 saves (only 1 blown save) and allowed just 1 unearned run over 11.2 innings, finishing with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. In the NLCS, Wilson had 3 saves and a win while throwing 5.2 scoreless innings. I was thinking I would give the award to Wilson over Lincecum, because while Lincecum certainly had some great performances this postseason, he wasn’t invincible. But in the end I realized that there was really no choice other than Lincecum. He pitched in 6 games for the Giants, making 5 postseason starts, and going 4-1 with a hold and a complete game shutout. Over 37 innings, Lincecum allowed 11 runs (10 earned), and fanned 43. He had a 2.43 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Lincecum had 2 wins in the World Series.
All-League Teams
All-American League Team
Catcher: Joe Mauer (Minnesota)
First Base: Miguel Cabrera (Detroit)
Second Base: Robinson Cano (New York Yankees)
Shortstop: Alexei Ramirez (Chicago White Sox)
Third Base: Adrian Beltre (Boston)
Left Field: Josh Hamilton (Texas)
Center Field: Vernon Wells (Toronto)
Right Field: Jose Bautista (Toronto)
Designated Hitter: David Ortiz (Boston)
Left-Handed Starter: David Price (Tampa Bay)
Right-Handed Starter: Felix Hernandez (Seattle)
Left-Handed Middle Reliever: Scott Downs (Toronto)
Right-Handed Middle Reliever: Joaquin Benoit (Tampa Bay)
Left-Handed Closer: Brian Fuentes (Minnesota)
Right-Handed Closer: Rafael Soriano (Tampa Bay)
Comments: Alexei Ramirez? What happened to the days when there was a logjam in terms of All-Star quality shortstops in the American League? Remember when Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, and Miguel Tejada were all in their prime at the same time? Yeah, it’s a little different now. The best shortstop in the AL this season had a .313 OBP and was caught stealing 8 times in 21 attempts. Once again Brian Fuentes finds his way onto this team by default.
All-National League Team
Catcher: Buster Posey (San Francisco)
First Base: Albert Pujols (St. Louis)
Second Base: Dan Uggla (Florida)
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado)
Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman (Washington)
Left Field: Carlos Gonzalez (Colorado)
Center Field: Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh)
Right Field: Jayson Werth (Philadelphia)
Left-Handed Starter: Cole Hamels (Philadelphia)
Right-Handed Starter: Roy Halladay (Philadelphia)
Left-Handed Middle Reliever: Hong-Chih Kuo (Los Angeles)
Right-Handed Middle Reliever: Luke Gregerson (San Diego)
Left-Handed Closer: Billy Wagner (Atlanta)
Right-Handed Closer: Heath Bell (San Diego)
Comments: My biggest surprise while picking this team was not that Buster Posey made the roster, or that Brian McCann did not, it was that I almost went with Geovany Soto as my All-NL catcher. He hit .280/.393/.497/.890 with 19 doubles, 17 homers, 53 RBI, and 62 walks in 387 PA. However, Soto made 5 errors, allowed 2 passed balls, and threw out only 22% of base stealers.
All-Major League Team
Catcher: Joe Mauer (Minnesota)
First Base: Miguel Cabrera (Detroit)
Second Base: Robinson Cano (New York Yankees)
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado)
Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman (Washington)
Left Field: Josh Hamilton (Texas)
Center Field: Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh)
Right Field: Jose Bautista (Toronto)
Left-Handed Starter: David Price (Tampa Bay)
Right-Handed Starter: Roy Halladay (Philadelphia)
Left-Handed Middle Reliever: Hong-Chih Kuo (Los Angeles)
Right-Handed Middle Reliever: Joaquin Benoit (Tampa Bay)
Left-Handed Closer: Billy Wagner (Atlanta)
Right-Handed Closer: Rafael Soriano (Tampa Bay)
Comments: Most of the guys on this list play for teams who were good this season or are usually good. Then there is Ryan Zimmerman and Andrew McCutchen, who play for two of the perennial cellar dwellers.
Major League Baseball Gold(ish) Glove Team
Pitcher: Tim Hudson (Atlanta)
Catcher: Yadier Molina (St. Louis)
First Base: Albert Pujols (St. Louis)
Second Base: Robinson Cano (New York Yankees)
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado)
Third Base: Jose Lopez (Seattle)
Left Field: Carl Crawford (Tampa Bay)
Center Field: Adam Jones (Baltimore)
Right Field: Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle)
Comments: I was a bit worried about attempting to make such a list, but in the end I couldn’t resist the temptation of trying. The list was made through a combination of stats and watching guys play (with the exception of Jose Lopez. If I’ve seen him play in the last year or so I’ve forgotten all about it).
Just For Fun Awards
Best Regular Season Team: Tampa Bay Rays
Most Surprising Team: San Diego Padres
Biggest Mid-Year Turnaround: San Francisco Giants
Biggest Late Season Collapse: San Diego Padres
Most Disappointing American League Team: Seattle Mariners
Most Disappointing National League Team: Chicago Cubs
Most Over-Achieving American League Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Most Over-Achieving National League Team: Atlanta Braves
Most Under-Achieving American League Team: New York Yankees
Most Under-Achieving National League Team: Philadelphia Phillies
Most Anonymously Decent Team: Chicago White Sox
Best Non-Playoff Team: San Diego Padres
Worst American League Team: Seattle Mariners
Worst National League Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Luckiest American League Team: Baltimore Orioles
Luckiest National League Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Most Snake-bit American League Team: Boston Red Sox
Most Snake-bit National League Team: Atlanta Braves
Worst Front-Office: Florida Marlins
Worst American League Managerial Job: Don Wakamatsu (Seattle Mariners)
Worst National League Managerial Job: Lou Piniella (Chicago Cubs)
Worst American League Fans: Tampa Bay Rays
Worst National League Fans: Florida Marlins
Best Fans: (Tie) Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers
Comments: You might be wondering how two of the worst teams in baseball could be considered two of the luckiest. The Orioles won only 66 games, but based on their run differential they actually should have won only 64 games. They had the best extra inning record in baseball (13-4) and the 2nd best 1-run game record (29-21). Pittsburgh didn’t do that well in extra innings or 1-run games, which isn’t very surprising considering that they only won 57 games total. Still, based on their run differential they should have only won 53 games. Houston actually won 7 more games than they should have based on their run differential, but in my opinion the Pirates were lucky to win 10 games this season. Plus, this was another opportunity to mock the Pirates.
The Jeff Francoeur Award
Major League Baseball Least Valuable Player of the Year
Winner: Brandon Wood (3B-Aneheim)
Runner-up: Luis Montanez (LF-Baltimore)
Third Place: Kazuo Matsui (2B-Houston)
Comments: I actually considered Ken Griffey Jr. for this award. Junior Griffey was 18 for 98 with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 7 RBI, 9 BB, and 17 K for the Mariners. Then when called upon to pinch hit he was found sleeping in the clubhouse. He retired soon afterward. For a first-ballot hall-of-famer, that’s pretty pathetic. But there were a few guys who sucked worse than Griffey in 2010.
Kaz Matsui, who is so weak he makes Boy George look like a hard-nosed gamer, went 10 for 71 with 1 double, no homers, and 4 walks to hit .141/.197/.155/.352 for the Astros. Josh Hamilton’s batting average was higher than Matsui’s OPS. Think about that for a second.
Baltimore outfielder Luis Montanez had only 8 hits in 57 at bats. The Lou Dog had 0 extra base hits, 3 RBI, and 1 walk, hitting .140/.155/.140/.296. Louie has to be upset, but hopefully he does not realize that Al Leiter once had a better year at the plate (2002 if you don’t believe me) than he just had.
While Kaz and Luis were absolutely dreadful, I had to give the award to Brandon Wood, once considered a can’t miss prospect for the Angels. The main reason that the award has to go to Wood is that he played so much more than the other two candidates. I picked the Angels to again win the AL West this season. Obviously that was a bad call on my part. However, I might have stood a better chance to be correct if Wood had not participated in exactly half of Anaheim’s games this season. In 81 games, Wood went 53 for 226 to hit .146/.174/.208/.382 with 2 doubles, 4 homers, 14 RBI, 1 SB, and 6 BB against 71 K. With RISP and 2 out, Wood went 2 for 28 with 0 walks and 11 K. He finished the year on a 3 for 46 skid, with 17 K and 2 walks over that stretch. He went 0 for his last 21 with 7 K and 0 BB. He also committed 10 errors in the field.
The Hideki Arabu Award
Major League Baseball Least Valuable Pitcher of the Year
Winner: Andrew Miller (SP-Florida)
Runner-up: Charlie Morton (SP-Pittsburgh)
Third Place: Victor Marte (RP-Kansas City)
Comments: This one was tough to pick because there were 7 or 8 good candidates. Victor Marte has got to be thankful that the Royals are around. They signed him as an unrestricted FA out of the DR in 2000, and he didn’t make his MLB debut until 2009 (it did not go well: 8 games, 12 innings, 8.25 ERA, 2.08 WHIP). This season he pitched in 22 games for the big club, all in relief, and he may have given us the best argument yet for the doing away with of won-loss records for pitchers. Marte pitched 27.2 innings, allowing 30 runs on 38 hits, 15 walks, 2 HBP, a wild pitch, and 8 homers. He posted a 9.76 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP. His record? 3-0.
Charlie Morton, a former Braves pitching prospect, is not exactly developing the way the Pirates had hoped. In 17 starts in 2010, Morton allowed 79 runs (67 earned) on 112 hits, 26 BB, 7 HBP, 5 WP, 15 homers, and a balk over 79.2 innings. He had a 7.57 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. By the way, he also made 3 errors in only 21 chances in the field. At least Morton’s 2-12 record was a more accurate reflection of his performance than Marte’s.
But the winner this year was Andrew Miller. Like Brandon Wood, Miller was supposed to be a can’t miss prospect. Selected by the Tigers with the 6th pick of the 2006 draft, Miller was one of the main pieces sent to the Marlins in the Dontrelle Willis/Miguel Cabrera trade. He hasn’t panned out. Miller made 9 appearances for Florida in 2010, 2 in relief and 7 as a starter. In 34.2 innings of work, Miller allowed 34 runs (31 earned) on 51 hits, 26 walks, a HBP, 5 WP, and 6 homers. He posted an 8.54 ERA and an unthinkable 2.36 WHIP, finishing with a record of 1-5. Miller also went 0 for 9 with 3 K’s at the plate.
The Thom Brennaman Award
Major League Baseball Biggest Douche of the Year
Winner: Nyjer Morgan (CF-Washington)
Comments: Clueless. Morgan played in 136 games for the Gonats in 2010, hitting .253/.319/.314/.633 with no homers, 24 RBI, and 40 walks against 88 strikeouts. He even hit into a pair of double plays. After “leading” the NL getting caught stealing 17 times in 2009, Morgan repeated the feat in 2010, again getting caught an NL “best” 17 times. The only difference this year was that his stolen base total dropped from 42 to 34. He also made 5 errors in center field and had only 2 assists. Morgan hit .237 with RISP and hit just .231 with RISP and 2 out. In innings 7-9 Morgan hit just .224.
But of course it wasn’t even Morgan’s horrid stats or his brain dead base running that led to him winning the coveted Biggest Douche of the Year Award. It was his idiotic, immature, and embarrassing behavior that earned him the prestigious BDYA. On August 21st in Philadelphia, Morgan was catching some (justifiable) flack from the fans in the center field stands for his silly “style” of wearing the uniform (baggy pants, high stirrups, and of course a tilted hat, cocked to the side, B-Boy style) and so after catching a fly ball for the final out of an inning he hurled the ball at a fan. The ball ended up hitting a different fan in the face and Morgan was later suspended 7 games.
A week later on August 28th, while crossing home plate as the 3rd runner on a bases loaded double by Willie Harris, Morgan intentionally veered to his left and leaned his shoulder into the back of the St. Louis catcher who had stepped a few feet in front of home plate in order to clear the way for Morgan. Morgan never even touched home plate. As he reached the dugout his teammates told him to turn back and touch home but by that time he had gone too far away and was out. No assist was credited on the play. Morgan simply didn’t score and was ruled out. Even Morgan’s teammates and coaching staff were upset by that maneuver.
But Morgan was just getting started. A few days later on August 31st, Morgan and the Nats were locked in a scoreless tie with the Marlins in Florida and the game went to extras. In the top of the 10th, Morgan rounded third with 2 down and it looked certain that he would slide in safely for the go-ahead run. The catcher had left the plate wide open and there was no way that Morgan could be tagged before he got his foot across the plate. But Morgan decided to turn away from the plate and barrel over catcher Brett Hayes. Hayes would suffer a season ending shoulder injury, but he held onto the ball and Morgan was out to end the inning with the game still scoreless. The Marlins scored a run in the bottom of the inning to win the game 1-0.
The next night the Marlins hit Morgan with a pitch, but rather than take his well deserved beaning like a pro, Morgan—with his team trailing by double digits—decided to steal 2nd and 3rd. The next time up the Marlins threw behind Morgan and he charged the mound. He was pummeled by several Marlins and had to be saved by Nationals coach Pat Listach. While exiting the field Morgan celebrated, shouting and raising his fist as the crowd (okay, well it wasn’t really a crowd, but the people scattered about the stadium) showered him with boos and jeers. He was handed an 8-game suspension for this incident. Thus, Morgan was facing suspensions of 7 and 8 games at the same time.
By the way, Morgan often refers to himself as “Tony Plush,” saying that is his “Gentleman’s name.” No, I’m completely serious. Yes, he’s that big of a douche bag clown.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 9 Betting Lines
Season: Vs. Spread (48-66-3); Straight Up: (65-52)
Week 8 Review: Whatever. I guess at this point that’s about as good as I can do.
Week 9 Preview: I’m still due for a big week. However, the spreads are just too tough this week. I have to hedge on a few of these.
Sunday’s Early Games
New York Jets (-4) @ Detroit
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: So what happened to the Jets last week? Getting shutout at home is not very good. They were coming off of a bye. What did they do during the off-week? I have to expect them to rebound this week in Detroit, but this is a team with hopes of winning the Super Bowl. They’ve had 2 absolutely miserable offensive games in 7 tries this season, both coming at home. If they turn in an offensive performance like that in the playoffs they could be done no matter how great the defense is. The Ravens went through a retched stretch offensively in 2000 and they ended up marching through the postseason fairly convincingly. But I’m not sure this defense is anywhere near as good as that one.
The Jets had won 5straight and 5 in a row against the spread prior to last week’s 9-0 defeat at home against the Packers. New York is 3-0 on the road (3-0 ATS). The Lions are no longer a bunch of pushovers. They are just 2-5, but they should be 3-4, and they are 6-1 ATS. They are 2-1at home, with the only loss coming by 3 points to the Eagles in week 2. They’ve won 2 of their last 3. Matt Stafford returned last week and threw 4 TD’s against Washington, but he’ll obviously be going up against a much better defense this Sunday.
Tampa Bay (+9) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons win but Bucs beat the spread
Comment: This did not look like a big game in August but it certainly is now. It’s a scary game for Falcons fans like me. These games are usually hard fought and close. Both teams come into the game 5-2 and 4-3 ATS. The Falcons are 3-0 at home, but the Bucs are 3-0 on the road. Atlanta has outscored opponents by 5.1 points a game this season and they are coming off of a bye. Tampa has actually won 5 straight on the road going back to last season, but the Bucs have a -3.9 scoring differential this season. The Falcons have won 3 straight in this series and 3 of the last 4 at the Dome, but the last 2 games in Atlanta have been heart stoppers. The Falcons are a bit banged up on defense. Hopefully the fans will be up for this game and will be able to give the home team a lift.
Miami (+5.5) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: The Dolphins just keep hanging around. They are 4-3 (5-2 ATS), 4-0 on the road, and still in the playoff picture despite a -2.3 average scoring margin this season. The Ravens are off of a bye and 3-0 at home this season. They are 5-2 overall (3-3-1 ATS). These two did not face each other last year, but in 2008 they played twice (once in the regular season and once in the playoffs), with the Ravens winning both games. Baltimore’s defense was the key factor in each of those meetings (big surprise).
New England (-5) @ Cleveland
Pick: Patriots cover
Comment: The Pats are 6-1 (4-2-1 ATS) and have won 5 straight. The Browns are coming off of a bye, and in their last game they won on the road at New Orleans. Cleveland is 2-5 (3-4 ATS) and 1-2 at home.
Arizona (+9) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: Oh man, am I sick of the Vikings! This is a must win for them. They are 2-5 (2-5 ATS) and 2-1 at home. The Vikes have only been outscored by an average of 2.2 points per game this year. Arizona is 3-4 (2-5 ATS) and 1-3 on the road. The Cards have a -9.3 average scoring margin this season. Even though Brett Favre is on his last leg, Randy Moss has been waived, Percy Harvin is unlikely to play, Sidney Rice is still a few away weeks from returning, and Brad Childress is a complete buffoon, I still think the Vikings ought to win this game easily.
Chicago (-2.5) vs. Buffalo (Toronto)
Pick: Bills pull off the upset
Comment: Oh, the poor Bills! They are 0-7, they’ve lost 2 straight overtime heartbreakers on the road against good teams, and now they have to go to Toronto and give up a home game. This is the 3rd year in a row that the Bills have played 1 of 8 home games in Toronto. The first 2 have not gone well. In 2008 they were 1-point favorites against the Dolphins but they wound up losing 16-3. Last year they were 3-point dogs against the Jets and they fell 19-13. The Bears are 4-3 (3-4 ATS) and coming off of a bye.
San Diego (-3) @ Houston
Pick: Chargers win but Texans beat the spread
Comment: The Chargers are now 3-5 (3-5 ATS) and they have a +4.4 average scoring margin, but they are 0-4 on the road this year. Houston is now 4-3 (3-4 ATS) with a -3.8 average scoring margin, and they have already lost twice at home this season. The Texans are playing on a short week and they are 0-3 all-time vs. San Diego. The Texans have not lost back to back games yet this season. The Chargers haven’t won back to back yet games this season.
New Orleans (-6.5) @ Carolina
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: The Saints are 5-3 (3-5 ATS) and coming off of their big win over the Steelers. They are 2-1 on the road so far. The Panthers are just 1-6 (2-5 ATS) and 1-3 at home. They’ve been outscored by 9.3 points per game in 2010. The Saints will most likely be without Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas yet again this Sunday, as their injuries haven’t been quick to heal and the bye week is just ahead. These two teams played in New Orleans in week 4, with the Saints eking out a 16-14 win.
Sunday’s Late Games
New York Giants (-5.5) @ Seattle
Pick: Giants win but Seahawks beat the spread
Comment: The G-Men have won 4 straight (3-1 ATS during that stretch) and they are coming off of a bye. They’re 2-1 on the road so far this season. The Seahawks have been outscored by their opponents overall this season, but they are 4-3 and 3-0 at home.
Indianapolis (+3) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles win but Colts beat the spread
Comment: This might be the most interesting game of the week. The Colts are 5-2 (4-2-1 ATS), but just 2-2 on the road, and they are banged up and will be playing on a short week. The Eagles are coming off of a bye, and they should have Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson ready to go. Philly is only 1-2 at home so far. These two teams don’t play very often. This will be just the 7th meeting since the end of the 80’s. The Eagles haven’t beaten Indy since December of 1993.
Kansas City (+3) @ Oakland
Pick: Raiders win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: It’s great to see this rivalry matter again. Lately these games have been close and low scoring. The Chiefs are 5-2 (5-2 ATS) but just 1-2 on the road. This is a huge game for Oakland. The Raiders are 4-4 (5-3 ATS) and 3-1 at home. They’ve won 4 straight ATS.
Sunday Night’s Game
Dallas (+9) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: Too bad the “flex” portion of Sunday Night Football’s schedule is not here yet. The Cowboys are probably fixin’ to call it a year. They are 1-6 (1-6 ATS) and have lost 4 straight (0-4 ATS during that run). The Packers are 5-3 (4-4 ATS) and 3-1 at home.
Monday Night’s Game
Pittsburgh (-4.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: The Bengals have disappointed but this is always an enjoyable matchup, especially in the Jungle. The Steelers are 5-2 (4-3 ATS) and 3-1 on the road, but they are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. The Bungles are 2-5 (2-5 ATS) overall, 1-2 at home, and they’ve now lost 4 in a row (0-4 ATS during that span). Including the playoffs, the Steelers had won 8 straight in Cinci before blowing a lead and falling at Paul Brown Stadium in week 3 last year. Cincinnati swept the season series over the Steelers last year for the first time since 1998.
The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 10 Betting Lines
Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 8-2; Vs. Spread: 4-6)
Overall (Straight up: 38-15; Vs. Spread: 25-26-2; Moneyline Upsets: 2-0)
Season Record
Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 66-24; Vs. Spread: 41-44-5)
Overall (Straight up: 344-104; Vs. Spread: 222-218-8; Moneyline Upsets: 11-19)
Week 9 Review: Not all bad, especially considering how many big games there were. I avoided disaster.
Week 10 Preview: This is not a great week in college football, as there’s really only one huge game and just a few big ones. Maybe I can have a big week and get farther away from .500.
Saturday
Game 1: Illinois (+3.5) @ Michigan
Pick: Illinois pulls off the upset
Comment: Rich Rod may be done anyway, but if he doesn’t get this one he has to be done. Illinois is 6-2 ATS, while Michigan is just 3-5 ATS. Illinois is 1-1 on the road, while Michigan is 3-2 at home. Michigan had won 39 of 45 over the Illini, but Illinois has won the last 2. Michigan hasn’t lost 3 straight to Illinois since 1951-1953.
Game 2: TCU (-4.5) @ Utah
Pick: TCU covers
Comment: This is the biggest game of the week. These two have only played 7 times (Utah leads the series 5-2) and have only been playing every year since 2005 (Utah leads the series 3-2 since then). From 2005-2008, the 4 games between these two were decided by a total of 26 points. Last year TCU won by 27. TCU has never won at Utah.
Game 3: Hawaii (+21) @ Boise State
Pick: Boise State covers
Comment: Boise State will be playing this game off of 10 days rest. Boise State is 8-1 all-time vs. Hawaii and has never lost to them at home. The Broncos have outscored the Warriors 81-16 the last 2 years.
Game 4: Northwestern (+5.5) @ Penn State
Pick: Penn State covers
Comment: Since the 5-0 start, NW has lost at home to Purdue and Michigan State, and won at Indiana by 3 points. Since the 3-3 start, PSU has won back to back games by double digits. Northwestern won at Penn State in 2004.
Game 5: Nebraska (-18) @ Iowa State
Pick: Iowa State beats the spread
Comment: This spread seems high. Last year Iowa State won 9-7 at Nebraska, but the Cyclones haven’t won 2 straight over Nebraska since 1976-1977.
Game 6: Arkansas (+3) @ South Carolina
Pick: Arkansas beats the spread
Comment: This could be one of the better games of the weekend. Arkansas is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The Gamecocks have been shaky since the big win over Alabama. However, the Hogs have lost WR Greg Childs and RB Dennis Johnson, and they could be without WR Joe Adams this weekend as well.
Game 7: Oklahoma (-3) @ Texas A&M
Pick: Oklahoma covers
Comment: Strange spread. The Sooners have won 7 straight over A&M by an average score of 49-19.
Game 8: Arizona (+9.5) @ Stanford
Pick: Arizona beats the spread
Comment: This one has been a thriller lately. Stanford has actually won 5 of the last 7, but they blew a lead in last year’s game and wound up losing. Nick Foles should be back for Arizona at QB this week.
Game 9: Missouri (-4) @ Texas Tech
Pick: Missouri covers
Comment: Mizzu won the last meeting in 2007, 41-10. Tech has already lost twice at home this year. It will be interesting to see how the Tigers bounce back from last week’s loss at Nebraska.
Game 10: Alabama (-6.5) @ LSU
Pick: Alabama covers
Comment: This is obviously a big game and it would be a huge game if you thought LSU might win. But it just doesn’t seem likely. Both teams will be coming off of bye weeks. Bama has won the last 2. A win in this game would be huge for Les Miles.
Other Games
Tuesday
Middle Tennessee State (-1.5) @ Arkansas State (Arkansas State pulls off the upset)
Wednesday
Rutgers (+10.5) @ South Florida (Rutgers beats the spread)
Thursday
Buffalo (+16) @ Ohio (Ohio covers)
Georgia Tech (+12) @ Virginia Tech (VT covers)
Friday
Western Michigan (+3.5) @ Central Michigan (WM beats the spread)
Central Florida (-2) @ Houston (CF covers)
Saturday
Iowa (-17) @ Indiana (Iowa covers)
Minnesota (+24) @ Michigan State (MSU covers)
Louisville (+5) @ Syracuse (Cuse covers)
NC State (+3) @ Clemson (NC State pulls off the upset)
Virginia (-1.5) @ Duke (UVA covers)
Maryland (+8) @ Miami (Maryland beats the spread)
Wisconsin (-20) @ Purdue (Wisconsin covers)
Air Force (-7) @ Army (Army beats the spread)
Florida (-14) @ Vanderbilt (Florida covers)
Baylor (+7.5) @ Oklahoma State (Baylor beats the spread)
Akron (+13.5) @ Ball State (BSU covers)
Colorado (-8.5) @ Kansas (Kansas beats the spread)
Temple (-3) @ Kent State (Temple covers)
Rice (+18) @ Tulsa (Tulsa covers)
UNLV (+18.5) @ BYU (BYU covers)
New Mexico State (+18) @ Utah State (NMS beats the spread)
Southern Miss (-9.5) @ Tulane (Southern Miss covers)
Washington (+28.5) @ Oregon (Oregon covers)
Navy (+3) @ East Carolina (ECU covers)
Boston College (-3) @ Wake Forest (BC covers)
North Carolina (+10) @ Florida State (FSU covers)
California (-14.5) @ Washington State (Washington State beats the spread)
Fresno State (-1.5) @ Louisiana Tech (Fresno State covers)
Marshall (+10) @ UAB (UAB covers)
Florida Atlantic (-2.5) @ Western Kentucky (FAU covers)
Nevada (-11.5) @ Idaho (Nevada covers)
Wyoming (-10) @ New Mexico (New Mexico beats the spread)
Louisiana-Lafayette (+27) @ Mississippi (Mississippi covers)
Oregon State (-5) @ UCLA (Oregon State covers)
Troy (-12.5) @ North Texas (Troy covers)
Louisiana-Monroe (+9.5) @ Florida International (ULM beats the spread)
Texas (-3.5) @ Kansas State (KSU beats the spread)
Tennessee (-19.5) @ Memphis (Tennessee covers)
SMU (-6.5) @ UTEP (SMU covers)
Colorado State (+17.5) @ San Diego State (SD State covers)
Arizona State (+5.5) @ USC (USC covers)
The NFL Blog: 2010 Power Rankings (After Week 8)
1. New England 6-1 (4th)
2. Baltimore 5-2 (3rd)
3. Pittsburgh 5-2 (1st)
4. New York Jets 5-2 (2nd)
5. Indianapolis 5-2 (5th)
6. Kansas City 5-2 (6th)
7. Philadelphia 4-3 (7th)
8. Atlanta 5-2 (8th)
9. New York Giants 5-2 (10th)
10. Green Bay 5-3 (11th)
11. Washington 4-4 (9th)
12. Houston 4-3 (12th)
13. Miami 4-3 (13th)
14. Tennessee 5-3 (14th)
15. New Orleans 5-3 (15th)
16. Minnesota 2-5 (16th)
17. Tampa Bay 5-2 (17th)
18. St. Louis 4-4 (19th)
19. Detroit 2-5 (20th)
20. Cincinnati 2-5 (18th)
21. Chicago 4-3 (22nd)
22. San Diego 3-5 (24th)
23. Oakland 4-4 (25th)
24. Cleveland 2-5 (26th)
25. San Francisco 2-6 (28th)
26. Jacksonville 4-4 (29th)
27. Buffalo 0-7 (31st)
28. Seattle 4-3 (21st)
29. Dallas 1-6 (23rd)
30. Arizona 3-4 (27th)
31. Carolina 1-6 (30th)
32. Denver 2-6 (32nd)
-Previous week’s rankings in parenthesis;
No time for comments this week.
The College Football Blog: 2010 Season Résumé Rankings (After Week 9)
1. Auburn 9-0 (1st)
2. Oregon 8-0 (4th)
3. TCU 9-0 (3rd)
4. Utah 8-0 (6th)
5. Boise State 7-0 (7th)
6. Ohio State 8-1 (NR)
7. Michigan State 8-1 (2nd)
8. Alabama 7-1 (8th)
9. Oklahoma 7-1 (NR)
10. Oklahoma State 7-1 (NR)
Out: Missouri (5th); LSU (9th); Wisconsin (10th).
Explanation: No time for comments this week.
The College Football Blog: 2010 Power Rankings (After Week 9)
1. Oregon 8-0 (1st)
2. Alabama 7-1 (2nd)
3. Ohio State 8-1 (3rd)
4. TCU 9-0 (5th)
5. Auburn 9-0 (6th)
6. Boise State 7-0 (4th)
7. Wisconsin 7-1 (11th)
8. Nebraska 7-1 (12th)
9. Arkansas 6-2 (10th)
10. South Carolina 6-2 (9th)
11. Iowa 6-2 (15th)
12. Oklahoma 7-1 (8th)
13. LSU 7-1 (14th)
14. Michigan State 8-1 (7th)
15. Stanford 7-1 (NR)
Out: Missouri (13th).
Explanation: No time for comments this week.