Tuesday, January 15, 2013

The NFL Blog: 2012 Conference Championship Betting Lines



Last Week: Vs. Spread: (2-2); Straight Up: (3-1)
Season: Vs. Spread: (134-124-6); Straight Up: (175-88-1)

Divisional Round Review: Well, that wasn’t exactly your average Divisional Round weekend, or at least it wasn’t mine. I’m okay with going 3-1 picking winners and .500 ATS. I’m now 7-1 picking winners in the playoffs which I feel good about. 

The games were great. I really didn’t want Baltimore to win the first game of the weekend but that was a classic. I don’t recall seeing a double overtime game in the NFL. It was hard for me to focus on the first half of the Green Bay-San Fran game because the game in Denver was still on-going. Then the Niners pretty much took control in the 2nd half. The Patriots-Texans game was entertaining but I never felt like Patriots were in trouble. 

And then there was my game. It was a long strange trip for me. A foggy haze of a far-the-fuck-out trip. 

I went to the game by myself. Looking back, I think I was actually feeling a little bit off on Friday and on Saturday and on Sunday morning…but I didn’t see coming what eventually came. 

Once I got into the stadium the mood was fantastic. The boys got off to a great start. The crowd was electric. I swiftly disposed of a couple of beers and enjoyed watching the first quarter from the top of one of the seating sections in the end zone. My seat was somewhere amongst the patrons in that very section but I actually felt more comfortable standing at the top where I could move around. 

So I was yelling and clapping and jumping and all of that. At some point I got an urge. I think if I wasn’t in the process of quitting smoking (Sunday was my 7th day) I would never have eaten anything; I would have smoked a cigarette. That’s what I wanted: a cigarette. Instead I got a small personal pan pizza with pepperoni (It was from Fascist John’s). I ate it quickly. 

Then I got one more beer. Again, looking back, that was kind of a sign. I never just get 1 beer at a game. I always get 2 at once. Without really being conscious of it, I must have been feeling a bit off. 

But then some guy came up and told me that I had to move from my spot atop the isle. I figured out where my seat was and I had to talk to a bunch of people and get them to move. I was stuck in between a couple of people and squeezed in tightly. I started sweating. I told them that if they wanted to I would switch so that they could all sit together (it was all one family). They liked this idea. 

This worked out well because it turned out that the guy who I had bought my ticket from had all the tickets from this one section and hadn’t sold them all, so I had 3 seats in my row to myself and 2 empty seats in the row in front of me. I had paid $100 for these $125 seats and they were, in my opinion, the best seats I’d ever had for an NFL game: 2nd level, middle of the end zone.

I could now stretch out and relax but I began to feel weak. I found myself sitting down as soon as I could after a play. But I wasn’t that concerned. I thought I was just maybe dehydrated. During New Year’s I went to a Panic show and got real dehydrated and had terrible muscle cramps but it was not a big deal. I thought that was maybe the problem here. 

I was still doing fine as the 2nd quarter wound down. But then some Jersey Shore type of dude (and he had just flown in from Jersey) showed up and he and his girl had 2 of the 3 seats I was sitting in. Suddenly I was stuck between the Jersey Shore dude and another guy. And the Jersey Shore dude was a talker. And I wasn’t feeling up to talking. I was feeling ill. I was sweating. And everything he said was just pissing me off. 

And by the way, his girl was gorgeous. I swear it’s fucking all about being totally unaware. You call it confidence. Fine. We’ll call it confidence. Either way, I’m telling you. If I could just be dumb enough and unaware enough not to realize that I’m an average looking, overweight, nerdy 32-year old with undesirable income and instead I just thought and acted as if I was the fucking bomb, I would have hot, preppy looking bitches flying with me to an NFL playoff game for no fucking reason. 

Anyway, I had to continue to make noise because the team really needed the crowd for a pair of red zone stops late in the half. By the time the half ended we were up 20-0 but I didn’t stop to celebrate. I jumped into the isle and moved as quickly as I could up the stairs. I needed some air. 

But once I got to the top of the isle and into the open space, my body sensed that it was okay to let loose, and I had just a few seconds to get to the trash can in the 2nd level hallway. I threw up maybe 20 times over 1-and-a-half to 2 minutes. I had to leave. But on the way down the ramps I had to stop. There was no place to put it. My last couple of spews covered the wall. Then I left the stadium. The smells and the sounds and noise and heat were making me feel like I wanted to throw up some more. I stumbled out into the day and straggled to my car, stopping several times during the way to sit and breath. 

Luckily I had my head phones with me so I could focus on the 20-0 lead. The game was starting up again as I got to the church parking lot where my car was parked. I really didn’t feel bad about leaving. I mean, I was disappointed that this had happened for sure. But I couldn’t enjoy the game in this state. And besides, I came to win, and I was leaving knowing that we were in really good shape to play again next week. I had to find one of the guys doing security for the church to open the gate for me. I told him I was leaving because I had gotten really sick and he didn’t think it was funny at all and told me to walk ahead of him on to my car and he’d let me out. He didn’t look at me or smile again. 

As I drove home, the Seahawks drove down the field. They had gotten the ball first after halftime and this time they scored to make it a 20-7 game. That was okay, I knew they’d make a game of it. 

While driving home I realized how sick I was. This wasn’t just eating fast and drinking a couple beers and shaking around a little (although that didn’t help). This was my body trying to expel something. 

I had a bit of an accident while trying to relieve some pressure and I thought I was maybe going to literally die. 

But the boys responded to Seattle’s drive. Snelling caught a little shovel pass and went in to make it 26-7. I wondered if we should go for 2. We didn’t. That was okay. We had just eaten up almost all of the 3rd quarter and answered their score to make the deficit 20 again. Even if they scored 2 TD’s we would still be up by 6. Even if we played as badly as possible the rest of the way, it would be hard to blow this. 

I still had some more getting sick to do once I got back into my house. I was sitting in my bathroom, trying to follow the action on the phone, but the clock wouldn’t hurry up and Seattle’s position on the field was improving by leaps and bounds. They scored to make it 27-14 with still almost an entire quarter to play. We got the ball back and had 2nd down on our own side of the 50. We needed to move the ball and eat some clock at the very least. I looked down again and was pleased to see that it read 1st down in Seattle territory. But something told me that wasn’t quite right. I then noticed that Seattle had the ball. Ryan had thrown a pick and now the Seahawks had it back. 

Again they didn’t march so much as they did skip down the field. All of the sudden it was a 1-possession game and it was 6-points, not 7. There was a long way to go. And then we went 3-and-out. The texts started coming in. Seattle got the ball back at their 40. I thought they might score, but we would have time to answer. I believed we wouldn’t allow this to slip away. 

But the defense held and Seattle punted into the end zone. Now I thought we could put the game away. We picked up a 1st down on the ground and kept it on the ground but the drive stalled. Matty Ryan threw short to Roddy on 3rd down and we had to give it up. Seattle got it back at the 40 again. And now, I didn’t know if we’d have a chance to respond if they scored. The clock was getting late. I was scared. They moved quickly inside our territory. I started to think “Oh my god. I’m as sick as I’ve been in years, and we may lose this. Not only might we not get this playoff win, we might suffer one of the all-time crushers.” 

But there was life, as Seattle had 3rd and 5 from the 27 with the clock under 2 minutes. Then we came on Wilson and we had him but he slipped away and dumped it off to Lynch and suddenly the Seahawks had the ball almost at the goal line. They had it at the 3 with 34 seconds left. There would be no time left for us. Now the nightmare was probably going to come true. 

I began to think that I might just move away. Move away from this town and just go and forget about sports.

The Seahawks ran another play and Lynch scored. He got hit after crossing the goal line and fumbled right into the arms of a Seahawk linemen but it was all the same. I was just annoyed that we might have to wait for them to confirm what everyone already knew was a touchdown. They hit the PAT to put us behind with just 31 seconds to play. 

I really don’t remember the moments between that PAT and the ensuing kickoff. I was angry, crushed, sick, and also in shock. I couldn’t believe it. In a very weird way I was relatively calm as they kicked off. I saw that Quizz would have a chance to return. My first thought was “don’t bring it out, we need those seconds” but then I thought “well, maybe it’s worth it for the chance to break one.” I wasn’t thrilled with his return initially, as it took 5 more seconds off the clock. However, when we lined up at the 28, it sure seemed like that 8 yard difference was a big deal. 

I was out of my head but that really translated to calm. I really wasn’t thinking, “oh, the season’s about to end; the finishing touches are about to be put on an unfathomable nightmare.” I wasn’t so much thinking about all the times we had saved ourselves late in games as much as I was watching this game after having experienced those things. We saw it happen against Chicago early, early on in the Ryan/Smith era. Similar feats had been repeated over the years. 

And then it just sort of happened. HD caught a pass near midfield. All of the sudden were at midfield. All we needed was 10 yards to get into range. To have at least a shot. We had plenty of time and a timeout. Then Ryan threw over the middle and Gonzalez had it all the way down to near the 30 yard line. Just like that. But for some reason we stopped the clock with 13 seconds left. I didn’t want to risk running another play; I knew Matty Bryant would hit from here. I just didn’t want to have to play defense for any more seconds if he made it. And you know what else? I didn’t want to see Seattle line up and take a knee if he somehow missed it. 

And I knew the ice was coming. But I was comforted by the knowledge that in the NFL a team cannot call back to back timeouts. We all knew it was coming and it came. It was somewhat disconcerting that Bryant went through the motion and put up a kick to the right off the goal posts that never came back in. I thought then—and still think now—that Bryant heard the whistles and knew the play was dead and just went through the motion, I don’t think he really “missed” but it was disconcerting none the less. The next one would be for real. 

It seemed like we were lined up forever before it was finally snapped and the kick was away. It was right down the middle. I reached a new stage, finally allowing myself to believe it was happening. 

But there was 8 seconds left. 

And then. 

I knew we weren’t kicking deep. Leon Washington was way too dangerous. I thought we’d squib it or pooch it to keep it on the field and not allow a runback. They’d have to either kneel it and go for a miracle on the first play or go for a lateral run back miracle. I did not expect an onside kick. 

Believe it or not, this was the most stressful moment of the day for me. I just could not believe what had just occurred. I love Mike Smith. All Falcons fans should. But there are times when he does things that just make me say “Why? Why are you doing this to us???????” I couldn’t believe it. I had a flicker of hope that maybe they had been so caught off guard by this strategy that we had actually recovered but that wasn’t so. They had the ball at their 46. Only 2 seconds had come off the clock. They had it at their 46 with 6 seconds left and 2 timeouts and we were only ahead 2. If the shoe had been on the other foot, I’d have been almost sure we were going to hit a pass and be in position for a FG try. 

They completed a pass for 6 yards to our 48 and out of bounds with 2 seconds left. Now I started to breathe easier and relax, although, regardless of the fact that they had just signed Ryan Longwell off the street the week before, a 65-yard FG indoors is a little bit too close to that line. And now they would have a chance at a Hail Mary. I knew Wilson could get it there. And they had stolen a game from Green Bay early in the season on a Hail Mary. And then there was all of the other things that could happen (I’m mainly thinking of penalties here but I could certainly be talked into entertaining all sorts of possible disasters ranging from the clock getting stuck to all of our players suffering some sort of group paralysis which allowed Wilson to run it in). 

So Wilson ran around and then threw it down the right side and yes this was going to be a true Hail Mary and there was Julio going up and pulling it down and out of harm’s way and we had it and then I could let loose. 

Yes. 

Yes!!! 

Miracle!!!

But I was still in shock. And I was sick. I was sick and dirty and I had work in the morning. And I wanted a fucking cigarette. 

However. 

How-ev-er. 

I would not have to move away. 

I would not have to contemplate suicide again (that day). 

And I wanted an orange Gatorade. 


Championship Round Preview: Championship Sunday. It’s one of the great days on the sporting calendar. This should be a good one. 

I know most of the country was probably hoping for Seattle-San Francisco but I don’t really give a fuck at this point. 

I will admit that I was hoping for a Manning-Brady AFC Championship Game, but Ravens-Patriots is pretty sweet too. And the Ray Lewis story continues for at least one more week. Gronk is out and that’s obviously a huge deal. The Ravens will come in confident and I have a hard time seeing the Pats blowing them out. But I certainly think New England will prevail in the end just as they did last year (though a bit less dramatically).
I doubt I’ll be able to focus much on the AFC Game, however.  

My team plays first. Actually, the first game starts at 3:30 this year which I don’t really remember being the usual starting time. This is usually cliché, but in my team’s present situation it is no exaggeration: nobody believes in us. Nobody respects us. Nobody thinks we’re a good team. Nobody thinks we can win it all. And remember, winning it all at this point means winning 2 games; 1 of them at home, the other on a neutral field. We’re 14-3. This is our 5th straight winning season and people still don’t think we’re any good. We’ve made the playoffs 4 times in the last 5 years and people still don’t think we belong. We can beat any of the remaining teams. We can certainly beat the 49ers this weekend at the Georgia Dome. We just might have to in order to get people to concede that we aren’t just a shitty team that somehow wound up playing at home in the NFC Championship Game. And perhaps even after beating San Fran people would still say we don’t belong. We aren’t any good. We can’t win it all. But you know what? We only need 2 more wins to make put all that respect stuff to bed forever. Respect? We don’t need no respect if we’ve got a ring.


Sunday’s Early Game


San Francisco (-3.5) @ Atlanta 
Pick: Falcons pull off the upset



Sunday’s Late Game


Baltimore (+9.5) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Ravens beat the spread


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