The NFL Blog: 2012 Power Rankings (Final Rankings)

Final Power Rankings

1. Baltimore 14-6 (11^th)

2. San Francisco 13-5-1 (2^nd)

3. Seattle 12-6 (1^st)

4. New England 13-5 (3^rd)

5. Denver 13-4 (4^th)

6. Atlanta 14-4 (6^th)

7. Green Bay 12-6 (5^th)

8. Washington 10-7 (7^th)

9. Houston 13-5 (10^th)

10. Indianapolis 11-6 (8^th)

11. Minnesota 10-7 (9^th)

12. Chicago 10-6 (12^th)

13. New York Giants 9-7 (13^th)

14. Cincinnati 10-7 (14^th)

15. Dallas 8-8 (15^th)

16. Pittsburgh 8-8 (16^th)

17. St. Louis 7-8-1 (17^th)

18. Miami 7-9 (18^th)

19. Carolina 7-9 (19^th)

20. New Orleans 7-9 (20^th)

21. Cleveland 5-11 (21^st)

22. Tampa Bay 7-9 (22^nd)

23. San Diego 7-9 (23^rd)

24. Buffalo 6-10 (24^th)

25. Tennessee 6-10 (25^th)

26. New York Jets 6-10 (26^th)

27. Detroit 4-12 (27^th)

28. Jacksonville 2-14 (28^th)

29. Philadelphia 4-12 (29^th)

30. Arizona 5-11 (30^th)

31. Oakland 4-12 (31^st)

32. Kansas City 2-14 (32^nd)

Comments: This is only my second year doing a post-Super Bowl edition of the power rankings but I feel like it’s going to be necessary for the foreseeable future. I mean, when was the last time that the top team from the AFC met the top team from the NFC in the Super Bowl? Or for that matter, when was the last time that one of the top two teams from the AFC met one of the top two teams from the NFC in the Super Bowl? 

Actually it hasn’t been that long. In 2009 the #1 Colts met the #1 Saints in the Super Bowl. But 2009 notwithstanding it seems like at least one of the teams in the Super Bowl comes from out of nowhere every year. In 2005 it was #6 Pittsburgh winning it all. In 2006 the #3 Colts had slumped down the stretch and did not appear on the verge of finally breaking through in the playoffs. In 2007 and 2011 the Giants barely made the playoffs and had to win multiple road games to win the title. In 2008 Arizona made the Super Bowl and I don’t need to go into too much detail as to why that was a mind fuck. In 2010 the Packers snuck into the playoffs as a #6 seed but won the whole thing. And finally you have this year’s Ravens team which randomly played their best football in the most important 4 weeks of the season.  

So this final post-postseason set of power rankings is going to be necessary to give a proper view of how things ended up. It’s a little strange because on the one hand you have 20 teams that haven’t played since week 17, and on the other hand you have a handful of teams that have played multiple games. There’s not going to be any movement amongst the non-playoff teams unless it’s due to some low ranked playoff team moving ahead or moving behind them, and that’s not going to happen much. 

But again, I do think this final edition is necessary. Just look at this season. There has to be some kind of adjustment to reflect what the Ravens did over the past month. It wouldn’t make sense to have them ranked #11 in the last edition of the power rankings for 2012. 

Anyway, these are the final power rankings for 2012. Not surprisingly, when compared to every other week of the season there wasn’t very much change in the rankings at all. Only 9 of 32 spots experienced change, with just 2 teams moving up in the rankings and 7 teams falling down. Only 1 team moved up the rankings more than 1 spot, while 4 of the 7 teams dropping in the rankings slipped by more than 1 spot. 

Obviously, the Ravens made by far the biggest move of any team in the rankings, vaulting 10 spots from #11 to #1. On the other hand, 4 teams fell 2 spots in my final edition of the power rankings: Seattle dropped 2 spots from #1 to #3; Green Bay fell 2 spots from #5 to #7; Indianapolis dropped 2 spots from #8 to #10; and Minnesota moved down 2 spots from #9 to #11. 

As mentioned earlier, there was a change atop my power rankings in the final edition, as the Ravens replaced Seattle at #1. The Seahawks’ stay atop the rankings lasted just 1 edition. The Ravens had not been ranked #1 in my power rankings all season. It was a fitting end, as Baltimore was the 7^th different team to hold the #1 spot in the power rankings over the final 7 editions. 

The Ravens entered the playoffs with as many wins as the Bears (10) but they end the season as one of only two teams with 14 wins. 

With a final record of 14-4, my Atlanta Falcons ended up with the best overall win percentage of any team this season. They came up just a little bit short in the NFC title game and finished at #6 in the rankings.

Despite keeping it close against the Texans in the Wild Card Round, the Bengals didn’t move up in my final rankings. They stayed at #14, the lowest ranked playoff team, behind a pair of non-playoff teams (#13 New York Giants and #12 Chicago Bears). They also remain the lowest ranked double digit win team.

The NFL Blog: 2012 Super Bowl Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread: (1-1); Straight Up: (0-2)

Season: Vs. Spread: (135-125-6); Straight Up: (175-90-1)

Championship Round Review: Yeah. It’s hard to be a fan of the Home Teams. But one day…one day it’s going to be our time. 

Puzzling performance by the Patriots in the other game. I expected the game to be very competitive, as the Ravens always play New England tough. In the end, you could almost say that I was wrong: it wasn’t that competitive. Baltimore won fairly convincingly. Or maybe I should say New England just sucked. 

It wasn’t a surprise that the Pats had trouble shutting down Baltimore’s offense. But I was surprised to see Baltimore’s defense shutdown the NE offense. Clearly Gronk’s absence hurt but the Pats also just got outplayed. Brady was very un-Brady. He had a total mental breakdown late in the first half. He was indecisive as to whether to take off or throw the ball, eventually going into that bizarre slide/defensive kick, and then not calling a timeout and letting too much time run off the clock, leading to NE having to settle for a FG try. He seemed a bit jittery in this game. 

New England can usually count on picking up yards and 1^st downs with relative ease, but it seemed like Baltimore’s defense made the Patriots work hard for every yard and every conversion. And two recurring themes were again a part of the story: yet another extremely ill-timed Wes Welker drop in a big game; yet another huge hit on a Patriots player by Bernard Pollard. Also, again, the recurring theme of New England suffering a key injury in January. 

Anyway, it was my least favorite Championship Sunday of all-time. I didn’t pick either of the games correctly straight up and I was just 1-1 ATS (couldn’t believe the Birds didn’t even end up beating the spread).  It couldn’t have gone much worse for me last Sunday. My team lost; my pet team lost; I didn’t pick the games well; and our loss was made even worse knowing that it not only cost us a spot in the Super Bowl but almost certainly cost us a world championship because we would have killed the Ravens. Fuck.

Super Bowl Preview: I can’t say I’m all that excited for the final game of the year either. Actually, I can’t remember the last time I was this disinterested in the Super Bowl. I guess I’d have to go with 2002 (Tampa vs. Oakland). But seriously, I don’t think I’ve thought about the matchup for longer than 45 seconds at any point during this week. I’m not remotely interested in the “Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh” aspect of this game. Can’t believe we dodged that bullet last year only for it to come back and bite us just a year later. 

I don’t really want either side to win. I wouldn’t mind seeing Ray Lewis win another Super Bowl in his final game, but that’s pretty much the only positive thought I have about that team. Other than that I hate Baltimore. I really don’t want to see this SF team win in their first playoff run with Kaepernick. It just seems like it shouldn’t be that easy. No matter what happens I‘m not going to be happy. 

There are a few interesting aspects of the matchup but I’m just having a really hard time being anything other than a Negative Nelson about everything right now. Obviously you have the head coach thing and the Ray Lewis thing and the Kaepernick-Smith thing. 

There’s also this Baltimore team trying to win a 2^nd title. And if Baltimore wins this year you just have to chalk it up to “well, it was just their turn.” Think about the injuries that they’ve dealt with this season involving Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, and Lardarius Webb. They had that awful slump late in the year, fired their OC, and there was a lot of pressure on Joe Flacco heading into the playoffs. They’ve already had a memorable playoffs, pulling the miracle at Denver and then avenging last year’s AFC Championship Game loss last Sunday in New England. 

For San Francisco, there aren’t as many story lines outside of the QB thing, the coach thing, and I guess the defense trying to cement their place in history with a championship. Well, there is Randy Moss looking for that championship that eluded him in Minnesota and New England. And it’s also the San Francisco 49ers franchise, which was down for a full decade, and has reclaimed their place at the top of the NFL. They are 5-0 all-time in the Super Bowl and a win on Sunday would tie them with Pittsburgh for most SB titles. Plus, they’d be 6-0 compared with Pittsburgh’s 6-2. 

I have a feeling this year won’t end on a happy note no for me no matter what. I guess the only thing I can hope for is to pick the game correctly, both straight up and ATS. I don’t feel that confident.

Super Bowl XLVII

Baltimore (+3.5) vs. San Francisco (New Orleans) 

Pick: Niners cover

The College Football Blog: 2012 Season Résumé Rankings (Season Review)

2012 College Football Season Résumé Rankings Season Review

This is the review of my season résumé rankings. I feel like these rankings were much improved this season due to the hammering out of my formula. Recall, however, that I didn’t get to the final version of my formula until week 8 of the season. Not much else to say here so let’s just get on with it.

Changes Tracker

There are 16 editions of my résumé rankings each year (15 weeks of rankings during the regular season and the final power rankings). There is no preseason edition because, well, there aren’t any résumés to grade. So there is one less résumé rankings edition per season than there are power rankings editions. We’re also dealing with a top 10 for these rankings rather than a top 15 (although I plan to change that next year).  

14 of the 16 editions were unique, with only 2 editions being exactly the same. There were 15 different sets. The first 13 editions were all different; then these rankings were identical in week 14 and week 15; before changing to something unique in the final edition. This was exactly as it happened last year. 

I felt like these ratings were fairly chaotic from week-to-week all year long. In week 7 all 10 spots in these rankings experienced change. At least 8 of 10 spots changed in the first 7 editions after week 1 and in 11 editions overall. At least 9 of 10 spots changed in 6 different weeks. Only 5 of 10 spots changed in week 9 and the rankings stayed exactly the same in week 15, but at least 7 of 10 spots changed in the other 13 editions. Things were less chaotic down the stretch, as less than 8 of 10 spots experienced change in 4 of the final 8 editions. 

While this did seem to be major change on a consistent basis, the numbers weren’t that different from last year. In some cases, last year almost seemed to be less stable. For example, last year all 10 spots experienced change in 4 different editions; that only happened once this year. There were 7 weeks with at least 9 of 10 spots changing last year, as opposed to just 6 such weeks this year.  

I made 114 total changes to my résumé rankings during the 15 editions following the week 1 rankings, averaging 7.6 changes per week. This was up only slightly from last year when I made 111 total changes for an average of 7.4 changes per week. 

Moves In and Out Tracker

Remarkably, there was just 1 edition of the résumé rankings in which all 10 teams stayed in the top 10 (week 15). Last year there were 3 times when all 10 teams from the week before remained in the résumé rankings. The first couple of weeks after week 1 were especially crazy in this department, as 5 teams were switched out in week 2 and week 3. 7 teams or less remained in the top 10 in the first 6 editions. 

Things got less chaotic as the year went on. At least 8 of 10 teams remained in the rankings in the final 9 editions. At least 9 of 10 teams remained in the résumé rankings in 5 of the final 7 editions.

Overall I made 34 “switch outs” this season. That was up just barely from last year’s 31 switch outs. Last season I switched out 7 teams in week 2 and this year I never switched out more than 5 teams in any week. 

31 different teams were included in at least 1 of my 16 sets of résumé rankings this year (up slightly from 27 last year).   

Appearance Tracker

Just 1 team made it into all 16 sets of résumé rankings this year: Alabama. Last year no team was in all 16 editions.

2 teams were in 14 of 16 editions (Notre Dame and Florida). 

South Carolina was in 13 editions. 

3 teams were in 12 of 16 editions of the résumé rankings (Kansas State, Oregon, Ohio State). 

LSU was in 11 of 16 editions. 

Georgia made it into 8 of 16 résumé editions, while Stanford and Oregon State both managed to make it into 6 of 16 editions. 

Texas A&M was included in 4 of 16 editions. 

7 different teams were included in 2 of 16 editions (Clemson, Michigan State, Iowa State, West Virginia, UCLA, Rutgers, Texas Tech). 

Finally, 9 teams made it into just 1 of 17 editions (Nevada, Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Tennessee, Arizona, Northwestern, Ohio, USC, Florida State).

Position Tracker

Only 4 teams held the #1 spot in my rankings at any point this season (Alabama x 7; Florida x 4; Notre Dame x 4; South Carolina x 1). Alabama was the #1 team in the first 5 editions before South Carolina took the #1 spot in week 6. That only lasted until week 7 when Bama regained the #1 spot. But they lost it again in week 8 when Florida moved into the #1 spot. Florida was #1 for 4 straight editions before Notre Dame took over the #1 spot in week 12 and matched Florida with 4 straight editions atop these rankings. Finally, Alabama retook the #1 spot in the final rankings.  

Last season only 3 teams had been #1 at any time.

A total of 7 teams held the #2 spot in these rankings at some point this season (Notre Dame x 6; Florida x 5; Clemson x 1; Iowa State x 1; Georgia x 1; Alabama x 1; Kansas State x1). Last year only 5 teams had ever been #2 at any point.  

Amazingly, 9 different teams held the #3 spot in these rankings in at least 1 edition this season (Notre Dame x 3; Michigan State x 2; Florida x 2; Kansas State x 2; Ohio State x 2; Stanford x 2; Oregon State x 1; Alabama x 1; South Carolina x 1). Last year only 7 teams had been #3 at any point. 

10 different teams were #4 in my rankings for at least 1 edition (Alabama x 6; Stanford  x 2; Nevada x 1; Arizona x 1; UCLA x 1; Rutgers x 1; South Carolina x 1; Ohio State x 1; Notre Dame x 1; Kansas State x 1). This was up from 9 teams last year. 

9 teams were ranked #5 at some point this year (Ohio State x 4; Oregon x 3; South Carolina #2; Kansas State x 2; Virginia Tech x 1; Georgia x 1; Texas x 1; Florida x 1; LSU x 1). This was down from 11 teams last year. 

10 teams were ranked #6 in at least 1 edition this year (Ohio State x 3; Georgia x 2; Oregon x 2; Oregon State x 2; Kansas State x 2; Iowa State; UCLA x 1; Texas x 1; Texas A&M x 1; Alabama x 1). This was down from 12 teams last year.

11 teams were ranked #7 at some point (Oregon x 4; LSU x 2; Georgia x 2; Nebraska x 1; Northwestern x 1; Stanford x 1; Louisiana Tech x 1; West Virginia x 1; Kansas State x 1; Texas A&M x 1; South Carolina x 1). Same number as last year. 

10 teams were #8 in 1 or more editions (South Carolina x 3; Oregon x 3; LSU x 2; Oklahoma x 2; Georgia x 1; Florida x 1; Ohio State x 1; Louisiana Tech x 1; Oregon State x 1; Kansas State x 1). Up slightly from 9 teams last year.  

An absurd 13 teams were in the #9 spot at some point this year (LSU x 3; Oregon State x 2; West Virginia x 1; Clemson x 1; Ohio x 1; Louisiana Tech x 1; Rutgers x 1; USC x 1; Texas Tech x 1; South Carolina x 1; Ohio State x 1; Kansas State x 1; Texas A&M x 1). Way up from 10 teams last year. 

12 teams were #10 for at least 1 edition (LSU x 3; South Carolina x 3; Tennessee x 1; Texas x 1; Florida x 1; Kansas State x 1; Texas Tech x 1; Oklahoma x 1; Florida State x 1; Stanford x 1; Texas A&M x 1; Georgia x 1). Up from 11 teams last year.  

Team Overviews

Alabama

Ranked in 16 of 16 editions (#1 x 7; #2 x 1; #3 x 1; #4 x 6; #6 x 1)

Debut: #1 (W1)

Final: #1

Peak: #1 (W1-W5, W7, F)

Notre Dame

Ranked in 14 of 16 editions (#1 x 4; #2 x 6; #3 x 3; #4 x 1)

Debut: #2 (W3)

Final: #2

Peak: #1 (W12-W15)

Florida

Ranked in 14 of 16 editions (#1 x 4; #2 x 5; #3 x 2; #5 x 1; #8 x 1; #10 x 1)

Debut: #3 (W3)

Final: #3

Peak: #1 (W8-W11)

South Carolina

Ranked in 13 of 16 editions (#1 x 1; #3 x 1; #4 x 1; #5 x 2; #7 x 1; #8 x 3; #9 x 1; #10 x 3)

Debut: #8 (W1)

Final: #7

Peak: #1 (W6)

Kansas State

Ranked in 12 of 16 editions (#2 x 1; #3 x 2; #4 x 1; #5 x 2; #6 x 2; #7 x 1; #8 x 1; #9 x 1; #10 x 1)

Debut: #6 (W4)

Final: #8

Peak: #2 (W11)

Oregon  

Ranked in 12 of 16 editions (#5 x 3; #6 x 2; #7 x 4; #8 x 3)

Debut: #7 (W5)

Final: #5

Peak: #5 (W11, W13, F)

Ohio State

Ranked in 12 of 16 editions (#3 x 2; #4 x 1; #5 x 4; #6 x 3; #8 x 1; #9 x 1)

Debut: #8 (W5)

Final: #6

Peak: #3 (W12-W13)

LSU

Ranked in 11 of 16 editions (#5 x 1; #7 x 2; #8 x 2; #9 x 3; #10 x 3)

Debut: #10 (W2)

Final: NR

Peak: #5 (W12)

Georgia   

Ranked in 8 of 16 editions (#2 x 1; #5 x 1; #6 x 2; #7 x 2; #8 x 1; #10 x 1)

Debut: #8 (W2)

Final: #10

Peak: #2 (W4)

Stanford  

Ranked in 6 of 16 editions (#3 x 2; #4 x 2; #7 x 1; #10 x 1)

Debut: #7 (W3)

Final: #4

Peak: #3 (W14-W15)

Oregon State

Ranked in 6 of 16 editions (#3 x 1; #6 x 2; #8 x 1; #9 x 2)

Debut: #3 (W5)

Final: NR

Peak: #3 (W5)

Texas A&M

Ranked in 4 of 16 editions (#6 x 1; #7 x 1; #9 x 1; #10 x 1)

Debut: #6 (W11)

Final: #9

Peak: #6 (W11)

Texas

Ranked in 3 of 16 editions (#5 x 1; #6 x 1; #10 x 1)

Debut: #6 (W3)

Final: #4

Peak: #5 (W5)

Louisiana Tech 

Ranked in 3 of 16 editions (#7 x 1; #8 x 1; #9 x 1)

Debut: #7 (W4)

Final: NR

Peak: #7 (W4)

Oklahoma

Ranked in 3 of 16 editions (#8 x 2; #10 x 1)

Debut: #10 (W8)

Final: NR

Peak: #8 (W14-W15)

Clemson

Ranked in 2 of 16 editions (#2 x 1; #9 x 1)

Debut: #2 (W1)

Final: NR

Peak: #2 (W1)

Michigan State  

Ranked in 2 of 16 editions (#3 x 2)

Debut: #3 (W1)

Final: NR

Peak: #3 (W1-W2)

Iowa State

Ranked in 2 of 16 editions (#2 x 1; #6 x 1)

Debut: #6 (W1)

Final: NR

Peak: #2 (W2)

West Virginia

Ranked in 2 of 16 editions (#7 x 1; #9 x 1)

Debut: #9 (W1)

Final: NR

Peak: #7 (W6)

UCLA

Ranked in 2 of 16 editions (#4 x 1; #6 x 1)

Debut: #6 (W2)

Final: NR

Peak: #4 (W3)

Rutgers

Ranked in 2 of 16 editions (#4 x 1; #9 x 1)

Debut: #4 (W4)

Final: NR

Peak: #4 (W4)

Texas Tech  

Ranked in 2 of 16 editions (#9 x 1; #10 x 1)

Debut: #10 (W7)

Final: NR

Peak: #9 (W8)

Nevada

Ranked in 1 of 16 editions (#4 x 1)

Debut: #4 (W1)

Final: NR

Peak: #4 (W1)

Virginia Tech 

Ranked in 1 of 16 editions (#5 x 1)

Debut: #5 (W1)

Final: NR

Peak: #5 (W1)

Nebraska

Ranked in 1 of 16 editions (#7 x 1)

Debut: #7 (W1)

Final: NR

Peak: #7 (W1)

Tennessee  

Ranked in 1 of 16 editions (#10 x 1)

Debut: #10 (W1)

Final: NR

Peak: #10 (W1)

Arizona

Ranked in 1 of 16 editions (#4 x 1)

Debut: #4 (W2)

Final: NR

Peak: #4 (W2)

Northwestern

Ranked in 1 of 16 editions (#7 x 1)

Debut: #7 (W2)

Final: NR

Peak: #7 (W2)

Ohio

Ranked in 1 of 16 editions (#9 x 1)

Debut: #9 (W3)

Final: NR

Peak: #9 (W3)

USC  

Ranked in 1 of 16 editions (#9 x 1)

Debut: #9 (W7)

Final: NR

Peak: #9 (W7)

Florida State

Ranked in 1 of 16 editions (#10 x 1)

Debut: #10 (W9)

Final: NR

Peak: #10 (W9)