The College Football Blog: 2012 Season Résumé Rankings (After Week 8)

Season Résumé Rankings After Week 8

1. Florida 7-0 (2^nd)

2. Notre Dame 7-0 (4^th)

3. Kansas State 7-0 (7^th)

4. Alabama 7-0 (1^st)

5. Ohio State 8-0 (5^th)

6. Oregon State 6-0 (6^th)

7. Oregon 7-0 (8^th)

8. LSU 7-1 (NR)

9. Texas Tech 6-1 (10^th)

10. Oklahoma 5-1 (NR)

Out: South Carolina (3^rd); USC (9^th).

Comments: As I hinted last week, I made more changes to the formula this week to try and improve the system. The result was that it took much longer to come up with the rankings this week, but I also feel like this is the best version of these rankings yet. 

Unfortunately, the process of explaining all of the changes has taken almost as long as it took me to do the rankings this week, so I’m going to save that explanation for next week. Gotta keep my Faithful Imaginary Readers on the edge of their seats.

Let’s quickly go over the changes to the top 10 this week. 

8 of the 10 spots in the rankings experienced change. 

I switched out 2 teams this week. South Carolina fell out of the rankings from #3, while USC dropped out from #9. LSU jumped into the rankings at #8, while Oklahoma made it at #10. 

5 teams moved up the rankings this week, with 2 of those 5 teams climbing more than 1 spot. Kansas State took the biggest climb, rising 4 spots from #7 to #3. 

Only 1 team dropped in the rankings while still remaining in the top 10 this week. That was former #1 Alabama, who fell 3 spots to #4. Bama’s most recent reign atop these rankings lasted only 1 week.

Florida moved up 1 spot from #2 to replace Bama atop the rankings.

The College Football Blog: 2012 Power Rankings (After Week 8)

Power Rankings After Week 8

1. Alabama 7-0 (1^st)

2. Oregon 7-0 (2^nd)

3. Florida 7-0 (4^th)

4. Kansas State 7-0 (5^th)

5. Oklahoma 5-1 (6^th)

6. LSU 7-1 (7^th)

7. South Carolina 6-2 (3^rd)

8. USC 6-1 (11^th)

9. Oregon State 6-0 (NR)

10. Notre Dame 7-0 (8^th)

11. Stanford 5-2 (NR)

12. Texas Tech 6-1 (13^th)

13. Florida State 7-1 (10^th)

14. Mississippi State 7-0 (NR)

15. Georgia 6-1 (12^th)

Out: West Virginia (9^th); Ohio State (14^th); Texas (15^th).

Comments: The changes in my power rankings were a bit more dramatic than usual this week. In each of the 3 previous weeks I had only switched out 1 team from top 15. This week I switched out 3 teams for 3 new ones. 13 of the 15 spots in my rankings experienced change this week. 

West Virginia was obliterated for a second consecutive week, this time at home, and the Mountaineers fell out of my rankings from #9.  

Ohio State pulled off a miracle victory over Purdue for the second year in a row, doing it despite losing their do-everything quarterback Bartley Miller. They also received surprising and terrific news this week, as Miller is expected to be ready to play this Saturday against Purdue. Despite the season-saving victory and health report, I dropped the Buckeyes out of my rankings from #14 this week. It was time for them to go, as this overtime victory over Purdue came on the heels of a 3-point win over Indiana. 

Texas also dropped from rankings this week despite a victory over Baylor. The Longhorns are simply not as improved this season as I thought they would be. Texas fell out of my top 15 after holding onto the final spot in the rankings last week. 

Oregon State returned to the rankings this week after taking care of Washington on the road to stay perfect on the season. The Beavs are getting healthy at QB and they have had a stingy defense all year. They jump back into the rankings at #9 this week. 

Stanford also returns to the rankings this week after hammering rival Cal last Saturday. Stanford moves back into the rankings at #11. 

Mississippi State is back in the rankings for the first time since falling out after week 3. The Maroon Dogs are now 7-0 heading into their game with Alabama. They claimed the #14 place in my rankings this week. 

Alabama and Oregon have been near constants at the top of my power rankings this season. Bama is my #1 team for the eighth straight week, while Oregon is my #2 team for a fifth straight week. 

6 teams moved up my rankings this week. Of the 6 teams climbing the ranks, only 1 moved up more than 1 spot. USC made the biggest move up the rankings this week, climbing 3 spots from #11 to #8.

4 teams dropped in my rankings while still remaining in the top 15 this week and all 4 teams fell at least 2 spots. South Carolina took the biggest fall in my rankings this week, dropping 4 spots from #3 to #7. 

One goal I’ve always had for my power rankings has been to do more than just reflect won-loss records and standings. At the moment, only 7 of the 11 undefeated FBS teams are in my top 15. The top 4 teams in my rankings are all among the unbeaten, but just 6 of my top 10 are undefeated. South Carolina and Stanford are the only 2-loss teams in my power rankings.

The NFL Blog: 2012 Week 8 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread: (8-5); Straight Up: (12-1)

Season: Vs. Spread: (58-44-2); Straight Up: (62-42)

Week 7 Review: It was a nice bounce-back week for me. I’m glad my “favorites heavy” hunch paid off, particularly in terms of picking winners. 

I’ll never complain about going over .500 ATS, but I was close to having a really good week. I thought Jim Harbaugh’s decision to forgo the safety and take immediate possession of the ball instead made complete sense. It still annoyed the hell out of me though. That game was the first of three “bad beats” I would have during the week. 

It actually started on San Fran’s final possession. The Niners played ridiculously cautious inside the red zone, basically not even trying to score a touchdown and being content to take a 7-point lead. I needed them to win by more than 7.5. 

Then the safety out of nowhere on a questionable chop block call appeared to have given me a miracle cover. But Harbaugh figured out that the quickest way to end the game was to decline the penalty because it had been 4^th down. That was rough. 

I thought I had the Bills pick right as well, but the Titans scored on 4^th down to change that outcome. 

Finally, when I picked the games early last week I had Detroit at +5.5 for MNF. They lost to the Bears by 6, so again I got beat by a half point. What really sucks is if I had gotten my lines just a few hours later I would have had the Lions +6.5. 

So in the end I was three rather fluky things away from going 13-0 straight up and 11-2 ATS, which I’d have to think would rank up there as one of my best weeks ever.  

Week 8 Preview: This is another week with a messed up schedule. The Patriots and Rams will be playing that idiotic game in London. There is one additional game this week (14 in total) with just 4 teams on bye instead of 6, but once again there are just 2 games saved for the late slot on Sunday. Hopefully both games will be competitive again like they were last week. 

There are several games this week which are close to “pick em” status. 5 of the 14 games this week have 1-point spreads. On the other hand, 6 of the 14 games have spreads of at least 6 points. 

As for my picks, I’m definitely going with more underdogs this week, at least ATS. I’m also going with 8 road teams ATS this week which could be dicey. As always, I’ll be hoping to avoid disaster.  

Thursday Night’s Game

Tampa Bay (+6.5) @ Minnesota

Pick: Vikings cover

Sunday’s Early Games 

Jacksonville (+12) @ Green Bay

Pick: Packers cover

Miami (+1) @ New York Jets

Pick: Jets cover

San Diego (-1) @ Cleveland

Pick: Chargers cover

Indianapolis (+3.5) @ Tennessee

Pick: Titans win but Colts beat the spread

New England (-7) vs. St. Louis (London)

Pick: Patriots cover

Atlanta (+1) @ Philadelphia

Pick: Eagles cover

Carolina (+9) @ Chicago

Pick: Bears cover

Seattle (+1) @ Detroit

Pick: Lions cover

Washington (+5) @ Pittsburgh

Pick: Steelers win but Skins beat the spread

Sunday’s Late Games

Oakland (+1) @ Kansas City

Pick: Raiders pull off the upset

New York Giants (-1) @ Dallas

Pick: Giants cover

Sunday Night’s Game

New Orleans (+6) @ Denver

Pick: Broncos win but Saints beat the spread

Monday Night’s Game

San Francisco (-6.5) @ Arizona  

Pick: Niners cover

The College Football Blog: 2012 Week 9 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 8-2; Vs. Spread: 7-3)

Overall (Straight Up: 47-9; Vs. Spread: 29-26-1; Moneyline Upsets: 3-1)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 52-28; Vs. Spread: 36-44)

Overall (Straight Up: 307-90; Vs. Spread: 211-185; Moneyline Upsets: 15-15)

Week 8 Review: Overall this was best week of the year. It wasn’t my best week in what I consider to be the primary category—overall record ATS—but I had at least a good week in all 5 areas. 

Finally I had a good week picking the biggest 10 games—both straight up and ATS—and I got back to .500 picking upsets. Obviously I’ll need more than 1 good week ATS in the biggest 10 games to get back to .500 on the year. 

Overall ATS I suppose it would be silly to complain about being 3 games over .500 for the week. It certainly could have been better. On the other hand, I really struggled later in the day on Saturday so I’m just glad I finished with a decent record. 

Week 9 Preview: This week’s schedule isn’t quite as stacked as week 8 was, but it’s still pretty solid. There are 58 games this week, which I believe is the largest slate of the season so far. Once again there are no FBS vs. FCS games this week. 

It’s always a good sign when I have trouble narrowing the list of “biggest games” down to just 10 and that was again the case this week. As usual I ended up going with a mixture of nationally important games and rivalries. 

My goal this week is to once again avoid disaster. I’d also like to have another good week ATS in the biggest 10 games. I’m definitely going with fewer favorites than I did last week. I may have gone overboard on moneyline upsets, as I’ve predicted more this week than I have all year. What’s really making me nervous about this week is that I’m going with a number of teams that I NEVER pick. Hopefully that doesn’t come back to haunt.  

 

Saturday

Game 1: North Carolina State (+7.5) @ North Carolina  

Pick: NC State beats the spread

Game 2: USC (-6.5) @ Arizona   

Pick: Arizona beats the spread

Game 3: Texas Tech (+7) @ Kansas State 

Pick: Texas Tech beats the spread

Game 4: Florida (-6.5) vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)

Pick: Florida covers

Game 5: Ohio (-6.5) @ Miami (Ohio)

Pick: Ohio covers

Game 6: Ohio State (Pick) @ Penn State

Pick: Ohio State covers

Game 7: Notre Dame (+10) @ Oklahoma  

Pick: Notre Dame beats the spread

Game 8: Michigan (+2.5) @ Nebraska

Pick: Nebraska covers

Game 9: Mississippi State (+23.5) @ Alabama  

Pick: Alabama covers

Game 10: Oregon State (-4) @ Washington 

Pick: Oregon State covers

Other Games

Tuesday 

Arkansas State (+3.5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (Ark State beats the spread)

Thursday

Clemson (-11.5) @ Wake Forest (Clemson covers)

Friday

Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Louisville (Cincinnati beats the spread)

Nevada (-3) @ Air Force (AF pulls off the upset)

Saturday

Iowa (+6) @ Northwestern (NW covers)

Kentucky (+13.5) @ Missouri (Kentucky beats the spread)

Temple (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh covers)

Ball State (-5.5) @ Army (BSU covers)

Indiana (+1) @ Illinois (Indiana pulls off the upset)

Texas (-21) @ Kansas (Texas covers)

Tennessee (+14) @ South Carolina (South Carolina covers)

Northern Illinois (-7) @ Western Michigan (NIU covers)

Mississippi (+5) @ Arkansas (Arkansas covers)

Southern Mississippi (+2.5) @ Rice (Rice covers)

Maryland (+1) @ Boston College (Maryland pulls off the upset)

Utah State (-21.5) @ Texas-San Antonio (Utah State covers)

Colorado (+46) @ Oregon (Oregon covers)

Memphis (+20.5) @ SMU (SMU covers)

BYU (+2.5) @ Georgia Tech (BYU pulls off the upset)

UCLA (+6.5) @ Arizona State (Arizona State covers)

Purdue (-3) @ Minnesota (Purdue covers)

Duke (+28) @ Florida State (Duke beats the spread)

Navy (+3.5) @ East Carolina (ECU covers)

Fresno State (-13.5) @ New Mexico (NM beats the spread)

TCU (+7.5) @ Oklahoma State (Oklahoma State covers)

North Texas (+3) @ Middle Tennessee State (NT beats the spread)

Kent State (+13.5) @ Rutgers (Rutgers covers)

Eastern Michigan (+14.5) @ Bowling Green (BG covers)

Michigan State (+6) @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin covers)

Toledo (-8) @ Buffalo (Toledo covers)

Akron (+6.5) @ Central Michigan (Akron beats the spread)

Boise State (-16.5) @ Wyoming (Boise State covers)

UAB (-3) @ Tulane (Tulane pulls off the upset)

Texas State (+20) @ San Jose State (SJS covers)

UTEP (+13) @ Houston (Houston covers)

Troy (-7) @ Florida Atlantic (Troy covers)

Western Kentucky (-7) @ Florida International (WK covers)

Washington State (+24) @ Stanford (Stanford covers)

Hawaii (+6.5) @ Colorado State (CSU covers)

Syracuse (+3) @ South Florida (SF covers)

Baylor (+2.5) @ Iowa State (ISU covers)

Texas A&M (-14) @ Auburn (A&M covers)

Massachusetts (+32.5) @ Vanderbilt (Vandy covers)

South Alabama (+24) @ Louisiana-Monroe (ULM covers)

Central Florida (-2.5) @ Marshall (Marshall pulls off the upset)

Louisiana Tech (-30.5) @ New Mexico State (LT covers)

UNLV (+18.5) @ San Diego State (SD State covers)

California (+1) @ Utah (California pulls off the upset)