Tuesday, June 26, 2012

The Hawks Blog: Grading the 2011-2012 Season (Kirk Hinrich)


*Team/NBA Leaderboard ranks are qualified players only.
*The Floor Time section includes both qualified and unqualified players in rankings.
*Remember to check the Glossary at the end of this entry for stat/abbreviation explanations. 


PG/SG Kirk Hinrich (2nd season with Hawks/9th season overall/played final 3rd of 2010-2011 season with Hawks after being acquired in trade)
Age: 31
Draft History: 7th pick in 2003 by Chicago
Acquired: Received from Washington in trade February of 2011
2012 Salary: $8.0 Million
2013 Contract Status: Free agent
2012 Regular Season Grade: C-


Grade Explanation: Had worst season of his career. Certainly the injury had an impact on his poor play, but he also missed 18 games, and he was paid $8 million. When he returned he filled spaces created when other players were out with injuries. He struggled as backup PG, but played better at the 2-guard spot in a starting role during the final couple of months. Still did not play very well. Always plays hard. 

Overall: Hinrich underwent shoulder surgery in November and wasn’t able to go when the lockout ended and the season began at Christmas time. He missed the first month and it took him awhile to get going when he did return. He eventually began performing better and was back in the starting lineup for the final 2 months of the season. 

Hinrich never really got back to playing as well as he did earlier in his career, or even as well as  he did with the Hawks a year before, but he did play better once he began starting alongside Jeff Teague rather than backing him up. He played in 48 of 66 games (48 straight after missing the first 18 with injury), 31 as a starter (started 30 of final 31 games, including 26 straight to close the season), averaging 25.8 MPG. He shot .414/.346/.781, averaging 6.6 P/G, 2.1 R/G, 2.8 A/G, 0.8 S/G, and 0.2 B/G with 1.2 TOV/G. 

Hinrich is a limited offensive player at this point. He’s not quick enough to breakdown defenders and drive to the basket, and this may also be part of the reason he’s nowhere near the distributor he was early in his career. The other problem is that for a guy who does much of the ball handling when he’s on the court, he sure seems to lose control of it a lot. He’s just not that sure handed as a dribbler. On the defensive end, he’s simply not quick enough to stay with most point guards. 

For all of these reasons, he’s really better off playing alongside a point guard despite being only 6-3. He’s a tough and tenacious defender and does a good job guarding 2-guards. Offensively, however, he’s still limited even as a shooting guard. He’s a good mid-range shooter but he’s just not a consistent shooter from deep. 

Hinrich was out-produced by his counterpart on the floor overall this season, whether he played point or shooting guard (played a miniscule amount of time at SF). While he was outperformed by his counterpart regardless of whether he was playing the 1 or the 2, the disparity wasn’t quite as severe when he was at shooting guard (ended up playing twice as much time at shooting guard than at point). The Hawks’ +- per 48 minutes with Hinrich on the court was +2.1, and +4.1 when he was off the court, so judging by that stat they were better when he wasn’t on the floor. 

Hinrich played in 38% of the Hawks CLUTCH minutes. Here he was much more sure handed and careful with the ball, dishing out 13 assists with just 2 turnovers. However, his shooting percentage dipped from an overall .414 to .375 in CLUTCH. His P/48 dropped almost in half from 12.3 overall to 6.8 in CLUTCH, although surely some of that has to do with the fact that other players on the team were usually the ones looked to in the big spots. 

When Hinrich was on his game it was always a big boost for the Hawks because they really needed another willing and capable shooter mid-to-long range shooter. He also contributed with his toughness and effort. You never have to worry about Hinrich giving his all. 

But when Hinrich is off it can get pretty ugly. As mentioned before, he seems to lose the ball when not being closely guarded more than most guys who handle it as often as he does. And for a decent shooter he can throw up some hideous shots. When he’s good he’s good, but when he’s off he’s really off. To some extent that may be true for all players, but it seems even more apparent in Hinrich’s case. 

Offensively, the Hawks points per 100 possessions number was down 2.0 when Hinrich was on the floor. Similarly, they allowed 1.9 points more per 100 possessions on defense when he was playing. He was one of the few players who the Hawks were better off without on both ends of the floor using the points per 100 possessions metric. 

Statistics: I don’t want to say that Hinrich had a bad season, but there’s no denying the fact that this was easily the worst year of his career. He established career worst numbers in MPG, 3PT%, P/G, R/G, A/G, S/G, B/G and ATO. The drop in playing time was not the sole cause of those low numbers; his production just fell off this season. In terms of per 48 minute production, Hinrich established career lows in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. 

Hinrich’s TS% (51.5) and EFG (.493) were also down from the year before. His WS/48 was .069, which was the 2nd lowest mark of his career. Hinrich’s drop in production can be seen most dramatically in his PER, which was just 9.28 this season (15.00 is standard league average). That was down 3.09 from the previous season and was 2.33 worse than his previous career low. 


Floor Time Stats/Team Rankings (Unqualified)

MIN%: 38% (6th)         
+/- Per 48: +2.1 (12th)
ON/OFF 48: -2.0 (T-10th)
+/- W-L-T: 24-24-0
WIN%: 50.0 (T-11th)
ON/OFF OPHP: -2.0 (9th)
ON/OFF DPHP: +1.9 (11th)
ON/OFF NPHP: -3.9 (14th)


Team Leaderboard: Hinrich was 2nd on the team in ARAT (26.4). 

He was 3rd on the team in 3PA/G (2.8). 


NBA Leaderboard: Here are Hinrich’s appearances on the NBA Leaderboard. 

ARAT (T-46th)


Season Review: Hinrich missed the first month of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery in November. He missed the first 18 games before coming back in late January and playing in the team’s final 48 games. 

Hinrich was coming off the bench when he first returned, but he played key minutes right away despite playing poorly. In his first 15 games (January 25th through February 22nd), Hinrich averaged 19.5 MPG and shot .337/.257/.571 with just 4.9 P/G and 2.5 A/G against 1.3 TOV/G. 

When Joe Johnson was out with a knee injury in early March Hinrich began starting. He stayed in the starting lineup in place of Marvin Williams when Joe returned, and he would remain in the starting lineup the rest of the year. Hinrich’s playing time increased big time in March. He shot better and his scoring increased, but he still wasn’t playing that well. 

The Hawks started 3 guards over the last 6 weeks, with Hinrich basically playing a combination PG/SG. His minutes decreased after March, but he started the team’s final 26 games. Hinrich’s shooting did greatly improve in the 2nd half (after the ASG), as his FG% increased by .111 and his 3PT% went up .141. It seems obvious that it just took him awhile to find his shot again after the surgery, as he shot just .571 on FT’s in the 1st half, and .944 on FT’s in the 2nd half. 

You could also say that Hinrich’s play was much better when he started as opposed to coming off the bench. The numbers would back that up. However, it seems like the main cause of this was that as a starter he was playing alongside Teague and Joe as a sort of combo 1-2 guard, rather than coming in and playing PG off the bench. Once he stopped playing the point his assist numbers dropped, but his turnovers also fell way off, and he started shooting much better. 


2012 Postseason Grade: C+


Grade Explanation: Did not play badly in the series but did not really do anything special either. He wasn’t much of a factor in the final 3 games, as his playing time decreased. He played very well in game 1, but did not play well in the crucial overtime loss in game 3. Was unable to do anything special defensively to stop Boston’s guards. 

Statistics: Hinrich played in all 6 games against Boston, starting 4, and averaging 23.5 MPG. He shot .433/.375/1.000 and averaged 5.7 P/G, 2.0 R/G, 1.0 A/G, and 0.7 S/G with 0.3 TOV/G. Hinrich played 141 total minutes (5th out of 13 on the team) and had a -17 +/- number for the series (tied 9th). His +/- W-L record was 1-4-1. He had a 10.1 PER (7th) but he was 3rd on the team in WS with 0.4, and he was 2nd in WS/48 with .133. 

Postseason Review: Hinrich’s play in the 2012 postseason, like his play during his entire time with the Hawks, is a bit hard to define. You can’t say that he played badly, but it’s hard to say that he really did anything great either. 

He was one of the key performers in Atlanta’s game 1 victory, playing 32 minutes and going 4 for 8 overall, with all 4 of his makes coming from behind the arc (attempted 6). However, 2 of his 4 missed shots were completely meaningless (59-foot heave at the buzzer at the end of the 1st and 5-foot jumper with 3 seconds left in the game and the Hawks up 9). He finished with 12 points, 4 boards, and 2 assists with no turnovers or fouls and had a +/- number of +12 in the game. 

Hinrich buried a couple of 3 tries in the opening minutes of the game as the Hawks built their big lead. He hit his first 3 to put the Hawks up 7-2, and the second to make it 13-4. In the 3rd quarter he hit a couple of big 3’s to stem the Boston comeback. After the C’s scored the first 4 points of the 2nd half to cut the deficit to 10, Hinrich hit a 3 to make it 52-39.The deficit was back at 10 and the Hawks had scored only 1-point over about 3-and-a-half minutes of play when he buried another from downtown to make it 56-43 with 6:47 left in the 3rd quarter. 

Hinrich was okay in 36.5 minutes in game 2, shooting 3 for 7 from the field, 1 for 3 on 3-pointers, and 1 for 1 at the line. He had 8 points, 2 rebounds, an assist and a steal without turning the ball over in the loss. Hinrich ended up with a -1 +/- number for the game. 

He hit some big shots during the 1st half. The Hawks fell behind early, but Hinrich hit a short jumper, got fouled, and hit the free throw to tie the score 4 minutes in at 9-9. He gave the Hawks their first lead of the game, 17-15, on a 3-pointer with 5:11 left in the 1st. He scored on a driving layup 4 minutes into the 2nd quarter to bring the Hawks within 1. 

In the 3rd quarter Hinrich made a great hustle play that turned into a 4-point swing. With the Hawks leading by 6, about 2-and-half minutes into the 2nd half, Josh tried to hand the ball off to Joe at the 3-point line and Pietrus knocked it away back across midcourt. Pietrus and Brandon Bass went chasing after the ball and Hinrich sprinted after them from the other side of the court. Pietrus got to the ball and tried to bounce pass it to Bass to his right but Hinrich went between them and stole it back. He kept his dribble, turned back up court, and fired to Teague, who drove into the lane and dished it to Josh on the left block for the score to make it 51-43, leading to a Boston timeout. 

But Hinrich lost his shooting touch in the 2nd half and really wasn’t much of a factor. He missed his only shot of the 3rd (a 3-pointer) and missed both of his shots in the 4th when the game was very tight. He was blocked by Bradley on a jumper and then fouled Bradley at the other end. Moments later he missed from in close and Bradley scored on the other end to tie the game at 66-66 with 8:11 to play. Hinrich had a +/- number of +11 for the game entering the 4th, but he played the entire 4th quarter, during which the Hawks were outscored by 12. 

Hinrich did not play well in game 3, and despite the game going to overtime he only played 26 minutes. He was 0 for 3 overall (all 3 tries coming from behind the arc, 1 in each of the first 3 quarters) and went scoreless, though he did have 2 boards, an assist, and 2 steals with no turnovers. He had an even +/- number for the game. Hinrich sat out the entire 4th quarter and overtime, as it seemed like Drew wanted a taller lineup on the court. 

Hinrich didn’t play that poorly in game 4; he just wasn’t much of a factor either way. In 22.5 minutes he scored just 2 points on 1 of 3 shooting, going 0 for 2 on 3-pt tries. He had 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and a steal with 1 turnover. His +/- number for the game was -18. 

He made his first shot of the night—an elbow jumper—tying the score at 6-6. He then stole a KG pass but lost it out of bounds. His only other shot in the quarter was a missed 3. His 3rd and final shot of the night was a missed 3-pointer late in the 2nd, but by then the Hawks were down 20. 

After proving that he could at least perform well enough physically, and with the Hawks facing elimination, Al Horford got the start in game 5 in place of Jason Collins. However, Larry Drew also decided to start Marvin Williams, leaving Hinrich to come off the bench. Including the playoffs, Hinrich had started 30 games in a row up to that point. 

Interestingly, Hinrich was effective when he came into the game late in the 1st quarter. In 7 minutes from late in the 1st to early in the 2nd, Hinrich scored 7 points on 3 of 4 shooting, hitting his only 3-point attempt, and also grabbing 2 rebounds with no turnovers and 1 foul. What’s even more interesting is that Hinrich came out after those 7 minutes and never played again. He sat the entire 2nd half, finishing the game with a -5 +/- number. 

Hinrich hit a long jumper with 45 seconds left in the 1st quarter to bring the Hawks within 2. He drilled a 3 to open the 2nd quarter, cutting the Boston lead from 6 to 3. Boston went on a 7-0 run after that until Hinrich laid a shot up and in to get the Hawks back within single digits with 8 minutes left in the 2nd. But on the ensuing Boston possession Hinrich fouled Ray Allen and Drew immediately took him out of the game—as it turned out—for good. 

Hinrich came off the bench again in game 6 and this time he played 17 minutes, but he really didn’t do a ton. He went 2 for 5 overall, 0 for 1 from behind the arc, and 1 for 1 at the line, scoring 5 points with 1 assist and no turnovers. This time he played end of the 1st/start of the 2nd and end of the 3rd/start of the 4th. Once again he had a -5 +/- number for the game. 

Hinrich made a big shot at the end of the 1st, getting a long jumper off just before the buzzer and sinking it to make it 23-20 Hawks. After a 5-0 run by the C’s early in the 2nd, Hinrich scored, got fouled, and hit the FT to push the lead back to 6. But he then missed a shot from right in front of the basket and fouled Pierce on a made bucket—the second time he fouled on a made bucket in the course of 2 minutes—and Drew took him out. His only other shot in the game was a missed 4-footer in the 3rd

Moving Forward: Heading into this offseason, I felt that Hinrich would almost certainly sign elsewhere next year. If so, he’d be the only non-minimum salary to come off the books for Atlanta. Now that his time with the team is (presumably) over, it’s interesting to go back and look at the trade and try and decide if it was really the right thing to do. 

Knowing everything we know now, I think the only way you can say that it was the right move is if you think it was worth all of it just to get rid of Mike Bibby. If you put that argument aside, it’s tough to look at that trade as something other than a mistake. The thought was that the Hawks needed a veteran guard capable of running the point offensively while being solid on defense. But I wonder if they could have gotten rid of Bibby and picked up a capable guard without giving up so much and taking on so much. 

One problem I have with the deal is that Hinrich has always been a bit injury prone. While he had averaged 73 games played in his 7 seasons going into 2010-2011 (and was on pace for a similar total when the trade occurred), he had never played a full 82 game season. He wasn’t even totally healthy when the Hawks acquired him. Then he went down at the end of the Orlando series and missed the entire 2nd round. 

It’s possible that if he had been able to go the Hawks might have taken the Bulls to a 7th game (tough to say they would have pulled off the upset even with Hinrich). But there’s another way to look at it. Would the Hawks actually have gotten swept in that series instead of losing in 6 if Hinrich had been healthy, because the door would never have been opened for Jeff Teague? 

And that brings us to the other major problem with that Hinrich trade: the lack of faith in Teague. It became obvious in that Chicago series and was reinforced this season that Teague was ready to be the full-time point guard. How did the Hawks fail to see it? 

Hinrich then missed 18 games this season due to that shoulder injury that was probably the biggest reason his production was down so much all year. While Hinrich missed 18 of 66 games and played well below average when he was on the court, the Hawks went without a 1st round pick last year and had to fill the roster with minimum salary guys. 

When you look at it, all you really have to show for the Hinrich trade is the series win over Orlando. That was certainly a big accomplishment, but I feel like it could have happened without giving up all of those assets and taking on all of that salary. 



Stat Glossary


Total Stats
Games Played (GP)
Games Started (GS)
Minutes Played (MIN)
Field Goal Percentage (FG%)
Three Point Field Goal Percentage (3PT%)
Free Throw Percentage (FT%)
Field Goals Made (FGM)
Field Goal Attempts (FGA)
Three Pointers Made (3PM)
Three Point Attempts (3PA)
Free Throws Made (FTM)
Free Throw Attempts (FTA)
Two Pointers Made (2PM)
Two Point Attempts (2PA)
Two Point Field Goal Percentage (2P%)
Offensive Rebounds (OR)
Defensive Rebounds (DR)
Total Rebounds (REB)
Assists (AST)
Steals (STL)
Blocks (BLK)
Turnovers (TOV)
Personal Fouls (PF)
Points (PTS)
Flagrant Fouls (Flagrants)
Technical Fouls (Techs)
Ejections (Ejections)
Foul Outs (DQ’s)
Double-Doubles (DD)
Triple-Doubles (TD)


Per Game Stats
Minutes Per Game (MPG)
Field Goals Made Per Game (FGM/G)
Field Goal Attempts Per Game (FGA/G)
Three Pointers Made Per Game (3PM/G)
Three Point Attempts Per Game (3PA/G)
Free Throws Made Per Game (FTM/G)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game (FTA/G)
Two Pointers Made Per Game (2PM/G)
Two Point Attempts Per Game (2PA/G)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game (OR/G)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game (DR/G)
Total Rebounds Per Game (R/G)
Assists Per Game (A/G)
Steals Per Game (S/G)
Blocks Per Game (B/G)
Turnovers Per Game (TOV/G)
Points Per Game (P/G)
Personal Fouls Per Game (PF/G)


Per 48 Minute Stats
Points Per 48 Minutes (P/48)
Rebounds Per 48 Minutes (R/48)
Assists Per 48 Minutes (A/48)
Steals Per 48 Minutes (S/48)
Blocks Per 48 Minutes (B/48)
Personal Fouls Per 48 Minutes (PF/48)


Ratio Stats
Assist-to-Turnover Ratio (ATO)
Steal-to-Turnover Ratio (STO)
Steal-to-Personal Foul Ratio (SPF)
Block-to-Personal Foul Ratio (BPF)
Points Scored Per Shot Attempt (PPS)



Percentage Stats
Offensive Rebound Percentage (OR%) (% of available OR player grabbed while on floor)
Defensive Rebound Percentage (DR%) (% of available DR player grabbed while on floor)
Total Rebound Percentage (R%) (% of available REB player grabbed while on floor)
Assist Percentage (A%) (% of teammate FG’s player assisted on while on floor)
Steal Percentage (S%) (% of opp’s possessions ended with steal by player while on floor)
Block Percentage (B%) (% of opp’s 2-pt FGA’s block by player while on floor)
Turnover Percentage (TOV%) (Turnovers per 100 possessions)


Hollinger Stats
True Shooting Percentage (TS%) (Takes into account value of 2-pt, 3-pt, and FT)
Assist Ratio (ARAT) (% of possessions ended with Assist by player)
Turnover Ratio (TOVRAT) (% of possessions ended with TOV by player)
Usage Rate (USG%) (% of team plays used by player while on floor)
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) (Player’s per minute statistical rating)
Value Added (VA) (# of pts player adds to team above replacement level)
Estimated Wins Added (EWA) (# of wins player adds above replacement level)


NBA Reference.com Stats
Effective Field Goal Percentage (EFG) (Adjusts for 3-pt being worth more than 2-pt)
Offensive Rating (ORAT) (Points produced by player per 100 possessions)
Defensive Rating (DRAT) (Points allowed by player per 100 possessions)
Offensive Win Shares (OWS) (# of wins contributed by player due to offense)
Defensive Win Shares (DWS) (# of wins contributed by player due to defense)
Win Shares (WS) (# of wins contributed by player)
Win Shares Per 48 Minutes (WS/48) (# of wins contributed by player per 48 minutes)


82games.com Stats
Minutes Percentage (MIN%) (% of team minutes player was on floor)
Net Plus/Minus (+/-) (Net pts for team while player on floor)
Offensive Points Per Possession (OFF-PPP) (Team Off PPP while player on floor)
Defensive Points Per Possession (DEF-PPP) (Team Def PPP while player on floor)
Net Plus/Minus Per 48 Minutes (+/- Per 48) (Team net pts per 48 of PT for player)
On Court W-L Record (+/- W-L-T) (# of gms team outscored/didn’t outscore opponent while player was on floor)
Win Percentage (WIN%) (W-L-T in win pct form)
Net Production vs. Opponent (PRO/OPP) (How player fared vs. counterpart)
Net On Court vs. Off Court Per 48 Minutes (ON/OFF 48) (Team +/- while player on/off court per 48 minutes)
Simple Rating (SIMRAT) (Taken from combo PRO/OPP and ON/OFF 48)
Net On Court vs. Off Court Offensive Points per 100 Possessions (ON/OFF OPHP) (Team’s offensive points per 100 possessions while player on/off court)
Net On Court vs. Off Court Defensive Points per 100 Possessions (ON/OFF DPHP) (Team’s defensive points per 100 possessions while player on/off court)
Net On Court vs. Off Court Points per 100 Possessions (ON/OFF NPHP) (Team’s offensive points per 100 possessions vs. team’s defensive points per 100 possessions while player on/off court)
Clutch Situations (CLUTCH) (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points)


If you’re confused about a stat or abbreviation you can check this glossary. Many of the abbreviations are ones I came up with just for shorthand. If you want further explanation/info on the stats, check out the sites listed within the glossary.


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