Sunday, April 1, 2012

The Baseball Blog: 2012 MLB Season Predictions

Baseball’s Back

And it’s…worse than ever? Okay, maybe not, but honestly, when are they going to get it right?

The major news story of the offseason wasn’t the Marlins, or Albert Pujols, or even the sale of the Los Angeles Dodgers. No, the major news story was all about the reigning NL MVP’s pee. It sounds like a joke, doesn’t it? But it’s all too real.

All of you non-existent readers know how I feel about PED’s. But at this point, there are clear rules, and there’s a clear system in place to enforce those rules. So if a guy is breaking the rules and gets caught he should be suspended. If he wins his appeal he should be vindicated. It’s only in the MLB that we have a player get caught, not get suspended, and not be vindicated. Hello?

What about the major rule change of the offseason? A lot of people are excited! A lot of really smart, knowledgeable baseball fans are all for it! And that’s what has me nauseous. I’m used to Bud Selig fouling things up and turning the sport into a joke. I’m not used to intelligent fans laughing along with him.

Baseball is not like other team sports. It’s a really, really long season. Therefore, it’s not a good idea to make the 162-game season secondary to the postseason. MLB is well on its way to doing just that.

There were already problems with the MLB postseason. The hokey nature of a 5-game series and off-days between every game has created an artificial feel to October/November. The first thing that needed to be changed about the MLB playoffs was changing the first round of the playoffs from 5 games to 7 games and eliminating some of the off-days. But we’re going in the opposite direction. The postseason got longer and we’ve added an even shorter series.

I don’t understand why some people can’t see how silly it is to have an escalating number of games. It’s just ridiculous to set up a system where there is a greater chance of a weaker team winning the first round than there is the last round. Even the NBA, which has 4 playoff rounds, has gotten this right. The MLB still hasn’t figured it out; they’ve actually made it worse. They’ve now added another round and made it a 1-game playoff.

To have a 1-game playoff between teams that aren’t tied in the standings is ludicrous. You have a 162-game season. Team A finishes with 92 wins. Team B finishes with 87 wins. Now Team A and Team B play a 1-game playoff to determine who advances? What makes sense about that? “Oh, but it gives more importance to winning your division!” Derp! There already was plenty of incentive to winning your division. You got into the playoffs and you got to hang a friggin’ banner. That’s plenty.

Why should a team that wins 91 games be elevated above a team that wins 97 games just because it happens to play in a weaker division? Oh, and this year, guess what happens in LDS? Instead of the 2-2-1 format, it’s a 2-3 format with the lower seeded team getting the first two games at home. That means there’s an even greater chance of a weaker team winning. That’s not what we want. The claim is that this will eliminate a travel day. Of course there wouldn’t be a need to eliminate the travel day if Bumbling Bud and hadn’t rushed in the new 1-game playoff. Regardless, there’s no need for a travel day anyway. What, the team can’t fly in and play the next day? Of course not! I mean it happens throughout the entire regular season but it can’t possibly happen in the playoffs.

The whole system is so ridiculous. And we still haven’t gotten rid of the absolute joke that is the “This time it counts!” All-Star Game rule. There’s simply no reason to have the ASG determine home field advantage for the World Series. Selig will tell you that it’s not possible to determine home field based on regular season record because they need to know the schedule in advance for logistical reasons. Don’t listen. It’s ridiculous. In fact, it’s so silly that we’re just going to move on to Opening Day.

Oops! Opening Day already happened. Yeah, you didn’t know? Well, it was more like Opening Morning. And it was actually blacked out in some places. That’s right, you see the A’s and Mariners played a pair of regular season games last week, in Japan, a week before everyone else, and then they came back and played spring training games. Yeah. No, it’s not an April Fool’s joke. Yep. Yeah, let’s just move on.


2012 MLB Predictions

Note: predicted number of wins and losses are exact. Wildcard teams in italics.

(#) = predicted finish within league (based on W-L record).


American League


East

1. Yankees: 94-68 (4)

2. Rays: 92-70 (5)

3. Red Sox: 90-72 (6)

4. Blue Jays: 85-77 (7)

5. Orioles: 61-101 (13)


Central

1. Tigers: 95-67 (3)

2. White Sox: 82-80 (8)

3. Indians: 76-86 (9)

4. Twins: 72-90 (10)

5. Royals: 68-94 (11)


West

1. Angels: 101-61 (1)

2. Rangers: 100-62 (2)

3. Mariners: 64-98 (12)

4. Athletics: 58-104 (14)


National League


East

1. Phillies: 97-65 (1)

2. Marlins: 96-66 (2)

3. Nationals: 91-71 (3)

4. Braves: 89-73 (4)

5. Mets: 81-81 (10)


Central

1. Brewers: 87-75 (6)

2. Cardinals: 86-76 (7)

3. Reds: 80-82 (11)

4. Cubs: 66-96 (13)

5. Pirates: 62-100 (15)

6. Astros: 59-103 (16)


West

1. Giants: 88-74 (5)

2. Diamondbacks: 84-78 (8)

3. Dodgers: 83-79 (9)

4. Rockies: 78-84 (12)

5. Padres: 65-97 (14)


MLB Team Power Rankings and Projected W-L Records


1. Angels: 101-61

2. Rangers: 100-62

3. Phillies: 97-65

4. Marlins: 96-66

5. Tigers: 95-67

6. Yankees: 94-68

7. Rays: 92-70

8. Nationals: 91-71

9. Red Sox: 90-72

10. Braves: 89-73

11. Giants: 88-74

12. Brewers: 87-75

13. Cardinals: 86-76

14. Blue Jays: 85-77

15. Diamondbacks: 84-78

16. Dodgers: 83-79

17. White Sox: 82-80

18. Mets: 81-81

19. Reds: 80-82

20. Rockies: 78-84

21. Indians: 76-86

22. Twins: 72-90

23. Royals: 68-94

24. Cubs: 66-96

25. Padres: 65-97

26. Mariners: 64-98

27. Pirates: 62-100

28. Orioles: 61-101

29. Astros: 59-103

30. Athletics: 58-104


American League Playoffs


Wildcard Playoffs

#4 Texas over #5 Tampa Bay (1-0)


ALDS

#1 Anaheim over #4 Texas (3-2)

#3 New York Yankees over #2 Detroit (3-2)


ALCS

#3 New York Yankees over #1 Anaheim (4-3)


National League Playoffs


Wildcard Playoffs

#5 Washington over #4 Miami (1-0)


NLDS

#1 Philadelphia over #5 Washington (3-2)

#2 San Francisco over #3 Milwaukee (3-2)


NLCS

#2 San Francisco over #1 Philadelphia (4-3)


World Series

#3 New York Yankees over #2 San Francisco (4-2)


Awards and Leaders


AL MVP: Albert Pujols

NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

NL Cy Young: Matt Cain

AL ROY: Matt Moore

NL ROY: Zack Cozart

AL Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia

NL Manager of the Year: Ron Roenicke

AL Rolaids Reliever of the Year: Mariano Rivera

NL Rolaids Reliever of the Year: Jonathan Papelbon

ALCS MVP: CC Sabathia

NLCS MVP: Tim Lincecum

World Series MVP: Alex Rodriguez

AL Batting Champ: Miguel Cabrera

NL Batting Champ: Joey Votto

AL Homerun King: Prince Fielder

NL Homerun King: Dan Uggla

AL Win Leader: CC Sabathia

NL Win Leader: Roy Halladay

AL Save Leader: Mariano Rivera

NL Save Leader: Craig Kimbrel

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