2012 Braves Opening Day
Early Spring (Not for Me)
Anyone who has read this blog over the years knows that I am traditionally a slow transitioner when it comes to the different sports seasons. I’m still caught up in baseball when college football and the NFL get going in September. I’m totally engulfed in the sport of football when the basketball seasons begin. The exception has always been with my team: the Braves. I’m always raring to go for Braves season.
This year it’s a little different. Don’t get me wrong: I’m still looking forward to having my team to watch almost every day for the next 5 months. I guess I’m just not having that “born again” feeling that I usually do at the start of Braves season. Strange as this is, I don’t have any doubts as to what the cause of it is.
Last season was the most painful I’ve gone through as a Braves fan. Some ol’ timers out there might scoff, but I became a Braves fan when the team was losing 90 games a year, so it’s not that I don’t remember what it’s like to lose. And there have been many, many crushing ends to the season in the past; but those endings came in the postseason. Never before had a Braves team that looked destined for the playoffs choked even before they started.
Not being in contention for the playoffs sucks. Being in contention but ending up outside of the playoffs sucks. Losing in the playoffs sucks. But nothing is worse than being a shoe-in for the playoffs all season and then never even getting a chance to roll the dice when they begin.
In the past, the Braves had always been the team coming from behind to make the playoffs. That’s one of the best feelings you can have as a fan. That’s why I had always feared finding out what it would feel like to be the team falling from ahead. And it was something I would fear whenever the possibility existed, as it most certainly did in 2010, when the Braves weren’t able to clinch that playoff spot until the final day of the season.
In fact, there were times during the last few weeks of 2010 when I got a real sense that the nightmare was going to come true. I remember the day it was finally over, my father mentioned to me how he had been surprised at how down I had been on things a week or so before. I explained to him that at that time “the numbers just weren’t looking good.”
With all of the games against division foes, including the Phillies, I was very scared. When we couldn’t take care of business against the Nats, I thought we’d missed our chance. I admitted that it totally surprised me (at least the rational part of me) when the Braves turned around and swept the Mets following the Washington series.
And that’s really what did it; that and the Padres not taking care of business either. The Braves lost the first two games of the final series against the Phils, and very nearly gave away the final game. Thankfully, we hung on, and my worst fear of all—that we would blow it in Bobby Cox’s final season—was avoided.
I was having those same fears of finding out what it’s like to be on the wrong end of a collapse late last season when the Braves still had a huge lead. I was annoyed any time somebody made it seem like the playoffs were guaranteed. The first time I got that horrible feeling was when the entire series in New York was rained out. I just knew that it was going to be a bad thing.
My levels of hope fluctuated so many times during the final couple of weeks. Watching the Cardinals thrive was even worse than watching the Braves struggle. It was awful. There were a couple of games when things didn’t go St. Louis’ way, but those were few and far between.
The last night was awful, but in a strange way, it really wasn’t the worst part for me. The worst part was waking up on the morning of the last day and knowing that no matter what we did that night it wouldn’t be over if the Cardinals won. By the time we blew the lead in the final game with the Phillies we already knew that we’d have to beat the Cards in a 1-game playoff in order to get into the postseason. Obviously, the loss was still horrific. The only thing positive I could take away from the experience was seeing how many other fans at Turner Field were as disturbed about the whole thing as I was (or at least, close to as upset as I was).
Admittedly, Boston’s collapse took much of the attention off of our disaster, and at the time that was really a blessing. But as the days went past, it started to bother me that there really wasn’t much pressure being put on the Braves front office to react to what had happened. I really didn’t know what I wanted them to do, but I wanted them to be worried. I just got the feeling that the reaction to the collapse wasn’t as strong as it should have been.
I mean, the Red Sox fired the manager who led them to 2 World Series titles in 8 years after they hadn’t won a title since 1918. On the other hand, Fredi Gonzalez had taken over for a manager who led the team to 15 playoff appearances in 21 seasons, and in his first year on the job he had allowed the team to suffer one of the most humiliating collapses in baseball history. Yet there was never any indication that the front office considered firing Gonzalez.
Then there was the long offseason, when the Braves really didn’t do anything of note. That wouldn’t have been so annoying if the Marlins and Nationals hadn’t been getting better the entire time. The Phillies remain on a different level from us, and now the Nats and Fish are trying to surpass us. It’s been frustrating.
I just don’t have confidence anymore. Cox is gone. JS is no longer the GM. I don’t have any faith in the current manager. I don’t have faith in the front office either. And as for ownership; I don’t think they care whether the team wins or not. That’s not a good feeling to have when it seems like every other club in the game is signing lucrative TV deals.
So this is how I’m feeling as we get ready to start another year. Again, it’s not that I’m not looking forward to watching the boys play every day; I’m just a little short on optimism this spring.
Well, that’s enough of that. 2011 is over. I had to mention it but I really don’t want to think about it anymore. Let’s talk about now. After all, tomorrow does start another year. Maybe something special will happen to make us all think of 2011 as just a bad dream and not the living nightmare that it was.
Offseason Review
Players not Retained
SS Alex Gonzalez
CF Nate McLouth
PH Brooks Conrad
OF Matt Young
MI Diory Hernandez
OF Wilkin Ramirez
OF Antoan Richardson
RHP Scott Linebrink
LHP George Sherrill
Trades and Other Transactions
10/31: Traded SP Derek Lowe and cash to Cleveland for LHP Chris Jones.
3/13: INF Brandon Hicks claimed off waivers by Oakland.
3/29: RHP Jairo Asencio traded to Cleveland for cash.
3/30: Signed longtime nemesis Livan Hernandez (RHP) to work as relief pitcher. Hernandez had been cut by the Astros.
4/1: Traded RHP JJ Hoover to Cincinnati for 3B Juan Francisco.
4/3: Signed RHP Chad Durbin (cut by Washington) to pitch in the bullpen.
Coaching Changes
Fredi Gonzalez wanted to retain his entire coaching staff. In a way I suppose it’s commendable on his part not to throw one of his coaches under the bus as long as there were no problems between them. It was disappointing for me and many other Braves fans who were hoping that Larry Parrish would be relieved of his hitting coach duties.
Perhaps the highlight of the offseason for me came when Frank Wren overruled Gonzalez and fired Parrish. Former White Sox batting coach Greg Walker was hired as his replacement. In addition, Scott Fletcher was hired as assistant hitting coach and as the advanced scouting report coordinator. I really like that move as well.
Roster
25-Man Opening Day Roster
C Brian McCann
C David Ross
1B Freddy Freeman
1B/OF Eric Hinske
2B Dan Uggla
SS Tyler Pastornicky
MI Jack Wilson
3B Juan Francisco
IF/LF Martin Prado
CF Michael Bourn
RF Jason Heyward
OF Matt Diaz
OF Jose Constanza
SP Tommy Hanson
SP Jair Jurrjens
SP Brandon Beachy
SP Mike Minor
SP Randall Delgado
RHP Chad Durbin
RHP Livan Hernandez
RHP Cristhian Martinez
RHP Kris Medlen
LHP Eric O’Flaherty
Setup Jonny Venters
Closer Craig Kimbrel
DL
3B Chipper Jones (surgery on meniscus; due back 4/13)
SP Tim Hudson (coming back from back surgery; due back late April/early May)
RP Peter Moylan (coming back from hip surgery; due back sometime in May)
LHP Robert Fish (elbow tendinitis; recovery time undetermined)
RHP Arodys Vizcaino (Tommy John; done for year)
RHP Anthony Varvaro (pectoral strain; recovery time undetermined)
Notable AAA Players
UTL Drew Sutton (28 yr old; 31 games with Boston last yr; struggled in ST)
SP Julio Teheran (got bombed in ST and lost battle for 5th starter)
RHP Cory Gearrin (sidearm RHP faltered late in ST)
RHP Buddy Carlyle (old friend could be called upon at some point)
LHP Yohan Flande (excellent ST; front office went with veterans instead)
OF Luis Durango (totally outplayed Constanza during ST but sent down anyway)
C JC Boscan (would probably be called up in the event of injury to Mac or Ross)
SS Andrelton Simmons (had chance to win SS job but will likely begin yr at AA)
Five Crucial Questions
Who is Jason Heyward? In my opinion, no player is more crucial to the Braves plans, both for this season and in the years to come than Heyward. There is just so much riding on his development.
If he can get back on track and take the next step as a player it could transform Atlanta’s lineup. If, over the next few seasons, Heyward turns into the superstar that so many projected him to be, the Braves might be able to remain contenders despite not being able to spend as much money as the rest of the teams in the NL East.
On the other hand, if Heyward is unable to adjust, and continues to struggle this season the Braves are going to have a hard time scoring a lot of runs. More importantly, if Heyward never does develop into a star—or even if it takes him 4 or 5 years to develop into that player—the Braves are going to be in trouble. They simply don’t have the resources to sign top free agents and teams don’t usually trade veteran stars unless they are near the end of a contract. The Braves have to develop their own stars, and while the system has plenty of pitching talent at the moment, there just aren’t any position players in the Atlanta farm system who are likely to be stars in the near future.
Jason Heyward was being called a can’t miss prospect a couple of years ago, but if he actually does miss, it could be devastating for the franchise.
Which Dan Uggla will we have? Uggla had a dreadful first half of the season in his first year with the Braves. After the All-Star break he became the hitter the team expected him to be, hitting .296/.379/.569/.948 over his final 69 games. The problem was that he was so wretched during the “first half” of the season (.185/.257/.365/.621 in 92 games) that he still ended up having the worst year of his career.
Uggla’s value is that he provides much more offense than most second basemen. However, because he is a poor defensive player, he loses all value when he doesn’t hit. During his 5 seasons in Florida, Uggla had gone through times when his batting average and even his slugging percentage dipped, but he had never experienced a drop in OBP like he did in his first year in Atlanta. Uggla ended up hitting just .233/.311/.453/.764 last season. A .311 OBP is really unacceptable for any player, and a .453 slugging percentage just isn’t good enough when you’re talking about one of the worst defensive second basemen in the game.
The Braves really need Uggla to put together a full season of production this year. Perhaps his first half problems were due to him feeling the pressure of playing for a new team and having signed a big contract. We have to hope it was just a fluke.
What will Chipper be able to do? I don’t have a good feeling about this one. In recent years we’ve come to accept that Chipper would miss a good portion of the season due to injuries, but we always knew that when he was in the lineup he would produce. Even in recent years when the power fell off and he stopped hitting for a high average, you could always count on Chipper to get on base consistently. I hate to say it, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Chipper struggles to put up numbers even when he is healthy enough to play in this, his final season.
CJ actually improved from 2010 in both batting average and slugging last year, yet his OBP fell off dramatically. He posted a career worst .344 OBP, down 37 points from just the year before, and down 126 points from 2008. Even more disconcerting was the startling change in his strikeout and walk totals. Prior to last season, Chipper had a career 1.09 BB to K ratio at the plate. Over the previous 4 seasons he had averaged 1.23 walks for every strikeout. Last season Chipper drew 51 walks and struck out 80 times for a K to BB ratio of just 0.64.
Chipper turns 40 on April 24th and he’s coming off yet another knee operation. I think it would be a bit much too expect him to play much better than he did last year. On the other hand, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if his play declined even further.
Will left field be a black hole? There are a lot of factors here. Chipper’s health is perhaps the key factor. I say this because when Chipper isn’t in the lineup the Braves will either have to rely on Juan Francisco or move Martin Prado to third. If Prado ends up playing 60 or 70 games at third base the Braves will likely have to go with a fairly undesirable platoon in left field (some mix of Matt Diaz, Jose Constanza, and Eric Hinkse).
That platoon would certainly hurt defensively and would likely be less than ideal offensively as well. Matty Diaz is a capable hitter, particularly against lefties, but he’s basically been a below average hitter for the last 2 years (.257/.302/.377/.679 with 7 homers, 25 walks, and 96 K over 512 PA).
If Chipper can stay relatively healthy then Prado can be the everyday left fielder, and while he won’t put up typical numbers for a corner outfielder, he’ll probably be good enough. But again, Chipper is 40 and coming off another knee injury, so we can’t just assume that he’ll be in the lineup for even 120 games.
Can Tommy Hanson’s arm hold up? If Heyward is the Braves most crucial position player, Tommy Hanson has to be the Braves most important pitcher. The Braves need Hanson to take the next step and become the ace that many envisioned he would be. While he hasn’t yet reached that level, Hanson has at least been a good starting pitcher when healthy. But healthy has become a bit of a scary topic concerning Hanson lately. We all have to just cross our fingers and hope really hard that Tommy’s arm holds up. But let’s face it: the arm problems and that delivery are flags that are every bit as red as his beard.
Will the team be able to put the collapse behind them? I said earlier that I’m trying to just forget about the collapse and focus on this season. I can’t help but wonder if the Braves themselves are over the collapse.
For many years this team expected to beat any challengers during the regular season. If things went wrong early on, nobody panicked. Everyone just expected that at some point they’d get rolling and find their way to the top. This team, and the fans, simply knew that they were going to win the division.
Now we have a team that wasn’t able to get it done. We have a team that folded. What will happen if they get off to a slow start this year? What will happen when they face the Phillies or their improved rivals from Washington and Miami? And perhaps most importantly, what will happen if they are in contention down the stretch? Will they get tight? Will they start to think, “Uh oh! Here we go again?”
I can’t answer any of these questions. We’ll have to wait and see. The truth is, we probably won’t know until the moment the Braves either clinch a spot for the playoffs or are eliminated.
No comments:
Post a Comment