The Baseball Blog: 2012 Team Rankings and Previews

2012 MLB Team Rankings and Previews

Note: Yes, I know what the Angels now call themselves, but this is my blog.

Note: Projected W-L total in parenthesis.

1. Anaheim Angels (101-61): You always have to worry about overrating the team that wins the offseason championship. This year there are about 10 teams who could claim to be offseason champs so I’m not that worried about it. Plus, we’re not talking about a team going from the outhouse to the penthouse. The Angels have been annual contenders for over a decade now. They won 86 games last season and they added the best player in the game over the offseason.

They have a stacked and very, very deep regular lineup. They have a topnotch rotation. I wasn’t buying CJ Wilson as an ace in free agency, but as a #3 starter? That’s a different story. He might be the best #3 starter in baseball. In my opinion, the Angels are the only team in baseball with both a topnotch rotation and a topnotch everyday lineup. The bullpen isn’t quite as good but it’s certainly decent.

The Angels may not be “the team to beat” in the AL but they are a good pick to win the most regular season games.

2. Texas Rangers (100-62): If you aren’t going to take the Angels to lead the AL in wins, you’re probably taking the Rangers. This is the Golden Age of Texas Rangers baseball. They have won back-to-back AL pennants and have a great chance to make it 3 in a row, as they continue to search for that first championship. You worry about a team like Texas that rises from mediocrity to elite status overnight and doesn’t come up with a world championship early on. Sometimes a team can get the “Buffalo Bills” label and that’s when the pressure starts.

Two quick points: first, the “Buffalo Bills” label is stupid and lazy, and it’s unfair to those great Bills teams. Also, I don’t think the Rangers will be effected by past heart breaks. The fan base isn’t jaded and the team has always been loose under Ron Washington.

Texas has a topnotch everyday lineup and a solid rotation. They lost CJ Wilson but he’ll be replaced by Yu Darvish. The Japanese product has created a sensation and I usually sell on guys like him, but something seems different about Darvish. I’m expecting him to be as good as advertised.

The Rangers have a very strong bullpen despite the fact that Neftali Feliz has moved into the rotation. Even if Joe Nathan doesn’t work out as his replacement they should still be fine. Don’t be surprised if we have a rather unfortunate ALDS matchup between the Angels and the Rangers.

3. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65): The Phillies’ everyday lineup has taken a step back, there’s no question about that. As great as the addition of Hunter Pence was, he only replaces the loss of Jayson Werth from two off-seasons ago. Ryan Howard was already in decline and now he’ll be coming off of a ruptured Achilles. Chase Utley is the glue of the Philly lineup. His injury issues have gone from frustrating to troubling to deeply concerning. Jimmy Rollins is several years removed from his MVP form.

The lineup setbacks are what keep the Phillies from being on the same level as the top American League clubs. Their dominant rotation is the thing that keeps Philly the cream of the crop in the NL. Even if they have one of the worst offenses in the league (which isn’t going to happen) they still have 3 of the top 10 pitchers in the league in their starting rotation, including 2 of the top 3 in the league. Nobody else has anything like that, and their underrated bullpen now has Jonathan Papelbon at the back end.

They should approach 100 wins again this season depending on the Howard and Utley injuries. For future references, just keep this in mind: they are now at 5 straight division titles and 1 WS championship. When do the comparisons start?

4. Miami Marlins (96-66): This projection could easily look foolish a few months from now and I hope it does. This team has seemingly gone from rags to riches in terms of ballpark, payroll, national attention, and all of the other stuff, but they’ve had talent for years.

There are still plenty of “ifs” for this team: if Jose Reyes stays healthy; if Josh Johnson stays healthy; if Heath Bell is as good in Miami as he was at Petco; if Hanley Ramirez has a bounce back year; etc. But none of those “ifs” are long shots.

The lineup is stacked, the rotation is loaded, and the bullpen is very solid. And then there’s Ozzie Guillen. Look, I love Ozzie, but I don’t always agree with his managerial style. I definitely raised my eyebrows when he got the job. But the more I think about it, the more I think he’s the perfect guy. He’s great at deflecting criticism and taking pressure away from his players, and he will have to do that if things don’t go exactly as planned this season. They also needed someone who the players would like and respect and I think Ozzie will be that guy. Perhaps most importantly, they needed someone that the front office won’t just fire if things start badly.

I’ve already mentioned the keys to the season for the Marlins. They could fall flat, and to be honest, I’m hoping they do. But just remember we’ve seen this work once before in 1997. I’m fully aware that the situation back then was very different, but I’m talking about we’ve seen this franchise make a gigantic push to go from non-factors to contenders in one season and it worked last time.

5. Detroit Tigers (95-67): The Tigers were dealt a serious blow when Victor Martinez was lost for the year due to an offseason knee injury. But Detroit has been one of the “big boys” in MLB for years now and they did just what the Yanks, Sox, Phillies, or Angels would have done in that situation: they simply replaced Martinez.

Adding Prince Fielder to an already great lineup makes the Tigers an elite offensive team. The bullpen is very good. The rotation is a question mark. Justin Verlander was obviously the top pitcher in the game last year but he worked a whole lot. After Verlander the rotation is shaky. If Verlander is a stud as usual then they will be fine.

6. New York Yankees (94-68): The truth about the Yankees is obvious: they’re old, people. But they aren’t too old to contend. They still have a topnotch everyday lineup even if A-Rod continues to battle injuries and Derek Jeter continues to decline. They still have some good bullpen arms and the indestructible Mo Rivera at the backend. The rotation is again a question mark but it’s nowhere near as shaky as it seemed at this time last year. The Yankees will contend for the title, as always.

7. Tampa Bay Rays (92-70): You have to believe in these guys at this point. They are loaded with arms in the pen and the rotation, including workhorse James Shields, lefty stud David Price, and young phenom Matt Moore. The lineup doesn’t scare you but it’s capable. This could be the year that Evan Longoria breaks through with an MVP performance. Finally, there’s not a manager currently in the game today I would rather have than Joe Maddon.

8. Washington Nationals (91-71): This might seem a bit high, but remember, they were 80-81 last year, and that was with Stephen Strasburg making 5 starts, Jayson Werth slugging .389, and Ryan Zimmerman missing 60 games. They now have a fully healthy Strasburg and some guys to back him up in the rotation. The lineup should be very good, especially if Werth bounces back. The bullpen is Washington’s strength, and depending on the health of Drew Storen, could be among the best in the game.

There may be some pressure on the Nationals to win now but I still think we’re a year away from that. If they win this year people will probably say it came earlier than expected. With all of the noise that the Marlins are making, the Nationals may actually fly under-the-radar. But they’re dangerous.

9. Boston Red Sox (90-72): It’s dangerous putting the Red Sox this low. They could easily win the World Series because they are one of the “big boys” and they had a lot of stuff go wrong the last couple of years. They still have as good of an everyday lineup as there is in the game and they could be even better this season. There are a few things scaring me off.

First of all, the starting pitching. It’s just not that good, especially if Josh Beckett isn’t in top shape. After Jon Lester and Beckett they are relying on former bullpen guys to make the transition to starter and young guys. There’s not a lot of certainty there.

And what about the bullpen? Jonathan Papelbon is gone, and the oft-injured Andrew Bailey is no sure thing to replace him. Several of the other arms are now being asked to help in the rotation or having off-the-field issues.

Finally, there’s Bobby Valentine. He’s just a boner. I really don’t know how things are going to work in Boston. It will be interesting.

10. Atlanta Braves (89-73): As everyone knows, this is my team. I’m definitely not as optimistic as many of my fellow Braves fans. That’s nothing new. I’ve learned to be at least somewhat objective when doing this blog, and I’m rarely as positive as other fans. This year I’m afraid I’m not even as positive as most non-biased observers. There are many reasons.

For one, the Braves suffered one of the worst collapses in baseball history last season, and the only option seemed to be “stay the course.” The problem with that is that the Braves were still several levels below the Phillies last season, and now the Marlins and Nationals have significantly improved.

The Braves lineup isn’t terrible but there’s certainly nothing special about it. It could be special if Jason Heyward blossoms into a star, but all of that talk has to be put on hold until he proves that last year was a bump in the road.

The bullpen is Atlanta’s biggest strength, but there are a couple issues with that. First of all, middle relievers—and relievers in general—are often inconsistent. More importantly, the Braves worked their top relievers to the bone last year (and to some extent the year before that). We really don’t know what effect that will have this year.

Finally, there’s the rotation, and this is where I differ the most from my fellow Braves fans. Many Braves fans feel that the rotation is elite and can stack up against any other rotation in the game. I don’t feel that way. Yes, the Braves have starting pitching “depth,” but the rotation isn’t topnotch.

There’s no ace of the Braves staff. It’s not Tommy Hanson; at least not yet. He’s yet to reach elite status when healthy, and last year his season was cut short due to injury. Long term, the arm issues are still a major concern for anyone not wearing a blindfold. Tim Hudson is the closest thing the Braves have to an ace and he’s coming off of back surgery. Jair Jurrjens has been injury prone and the team spent much of the offseason trying to give him away. Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy have been very good at times but haven’t put it all together yet. And the vaunted future aces do not appear ready for the big leagues.

It seems unlikely that the Braves will suddenly fall to the bottom of the league, but I just don’t think a leap forward is likely either. There’s not much the front office can do at this point. There aren’t any quick fixes or miracle trades. Either the young players put it together or they don’t. With that in mind, I must say that I have very little confidence in the manager and the coaching staff. But of course, I hope I’m wrong.

11. San Francisco Giants (88-74): There’s a lot not to like about the Giants. You can start with the front office. Then you can look at the manager. Then you can look at the hideous everyday lineup. What makes the Giants annual contenders is their loaded pitching staff. They are just loaded with arms in the rotation and the pen. That’s always going to make them dangerous, both late in the regular season and in October if they get in the tournament.

12. Milwaukee Brewers (87-75): You have to feel for Brewers fans. They finally get back to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years in 2008, but they can’t keep CC Sabathia. Last year they reached the NLCS, but Prince Fielder left them in the offseason. They can’t catch a break.

Or at least they couldn’t until they did. They got extremely lucky this offseason when Ryan Braun’s 50-game suspension got overturned. Of course we don’t know if the Braun they won’t be losing for 50 games will be the MVP version. I’m not really worried about Braun physically, although that has to be of some concern. I’m more worried about the mental side of things. We never know how a player is going to handle being outed as a “user” until we see them go through the process. And remember, he’s all alone in the middle of an otherwise average lineup now that Fielder is gone.

If Braun is the Braun of the last few seasons the Brewers should score enough runs. They have a decent rotation that could be better than decent. The bullpen is solid. This should be good enough in a weak NL Central.

13. St. Louis Cardinals (86-76): The Cardinals had a dream September and a miraculous October. They had a nightmare offseason. The two most important pieces of the team—Albert Pujols and Tony LaRussa—left and there were simply no able replacements.

You can’t replace Albert Pujols. The lineup is still fine; better than fine really. But Pujols is simply irreplaceable.

Then there’s LaRussa. As much as it pains me to say it, he is also just irreplaceable. There’s no manager that can have that much of a positive impact on the team. That’s really the key point. Most of the best managers don’t really add much, they just don’t hurt the team. LaRussa was one of those rare managers who was actually a net gain.

The St. Louis rotation should be okay, but there are some major questions concerning the health of the two aces, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. The bullpen should also be okay, but LaRussa was the master of getting the most out of a pen, and I’m just not sure it will be as good without him.

The Cardinals won’t fall off the face of the earth, but you just can’t expect them to lose the best player in the game and the best manager in the game and not take a step back.

14. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77): The Blue Jays are in a tough spot. They are a pretty good team and they are a team on the rise, but it’s hard to say how much room they have to rise when there are 3 teams significantly better than them in their own division. They’re going to score runs but pitching could be an issue. The rotation has talent but not much in the way of results just yet. The bullpen could be okay, or it could be a disaster. The worst part is that even if everything goes right for the Jays, it’ll be hard for them to finish even as high as 3^rd in the AL East.

15. Arizona Diamondbacks: (84-78): Arizona snuck up on me last year. This year I think they’ll be in the hunt for the postseason, but I don’t think they’ll win the NL West again. The offense should be fine, but the pitching isn’t as much of a sure thing. That rotation simply can’t be as good as last year, and the bullpen may also take a step back. But I’ll say this: be wary of betting against Kirk Gibson.

16. Los Angeles Dodgers (83-79): I’m glad the Dodgers have seemingly put the Frank McCourt story to bed for good, but the truth is that the whole thing has been blown out of proportion from start to finish.

First of all, it’s not like the Dodgers were in great hands before McCourt took over when they were owned by Rupert Murdoch. I mean it could be argued that McCourt was actually less unethical and corrupt than his predecessor.

Second, the Dodgers went to the playoffs for the first time in 8 years in McCourt’s first year owning the team, and during his 8-year run as owner the Dodgers had 6 winning seasons, 4 playoff appearances, 3 division titles, and went to back-to-back NLCS. They only won fewer than 80 games once and never lost more than 91 games during his time as owner. They never finished last during McCourt’s 8 years and they were consistently near the top in attendance.

I’m not saying that McCourt isn’t a total scumbag; I’m not saying he hadn’t screwed things up; I’m not saying they aren’t in a better situation now. I’m just saying that on the list of men who have been given the label of “single handedly destroyed the franchise,” McCourt is nowhere near the worst.

The media constantly used hyperbole to describe the Dodgers’ situation last year, both on the field and in the stands. And as always, the more the media screamed it, the more the everyday fans started to repeat it. The fact is that it wasn’t anywhere near as bad as the media made it seem.

The media said that McCourt had allowed Dodgers Stadium to become something like a cross between a prison yard and a mash pit. Almost all of this stemmed from a single incident which occurred in the parking lot at Dodgers Stadium, when a San Francisco “fan” was badly beaten by a group of Los Angeles “fans.” It was the sort of thing that could have happened in any big city and almost certainly couldn’t have been stopped, short of turning the parking lot into a police state. It also had nothing to do with baseball.

The media kept saying that Dodgers Stadium had turned into a ghost town. People were either afraid to come to Dodgers Stadium because of the lack of security or ashamed to come because of Frank McCourt. It cannot be argued that attendance had not fallen significantly at Dodgers Stadium. It cannot be argued that attendance at Dodgers Stadium wasn’t worse than it had been in over a decade. What can be argued is just how much attendance actually was down and how much of it related to factors other than fear and shame.

Attendance at Dodgers home games dropped by 630,181 fans in 2011. That’s a significant fall. Even still, the Dodgers were 6^th out of 16 teams in the National League in attendance, averaging over 36,000 per game. If some fans were staying away due to fear and shame, at least as many were likely staying away due to the fact that the team was coming off their first losing season in 5 years and then got off to a very slow start.

You also have to consider that the Dodgers went from having a flashy team with Manny Ramirez and Joe Torre, to being a comparatively boring and uninteresting team. In LA it’s not just about winning; it’s about winning with style. Maybe it didn’t seem as cool to be at a Dodgers game anymore.

Oh yeah, and what was that thing they used to say? Oh, right. It’s the economy, stupid.

Finally, there was a point last year where people started equating a disastrous season off the field with a disastrous season on the field. I can’t tell you how annoying it was to hear people on TV or the radio or the internet say over and over how awful the Dodgers had been in 2011. They just said it time after time and nobody ever stopped them or corrected them.

The fact of the matter is that the Dodgers went 82-79, finishing 3^rd in the NL West, 7^th overall in the 16-team NL, and only 7.5 games back from the eventual WS champion St. Louis Cardinals. I’m not saying they had a great year, but it was hardly awful. Not to mention the fact that they had the Cy Young award winning pitcher in Clayton Kershaw and should have had the MVP in Matt Kemp. They actually improved by 2.5 games from 2010, and they finished just 1.5 games worse than Manny’s first year in 2008 when they went to the NLCS.

Okay, I know I got a little off topic there but mass hyperbole can sometimes only be answered with a few superfluous paragraphs of reality. As for the Dodgers this season, they still don’t have much offensively besides Kemp, they still don’t have much in the rotation besides Kershaw, and the bullpen is still a problem. Overall, I think they’ll be about the same. Just a guess: the media won’t see it that way.

17. Chicago White Sox (82-80): I really think the window of opportunity has closed on the current era of the Chi Sox. Kenny Williams has probably done some good things in his time, but they just don’t outweigh the bad moves. The White Sox aren’t really bad in any area but they aren’t really good at anything either. If everything goes right they could surprise, but it’s more likely that they are a disaster. I’m predicting something in the middle.

18. New York Mets (81-81): The Mets’ situation is similar to LAD’s. It’s just not as bad as the media has made it out to be. The Mets ownership still has plenty of money. The team isn’t in great shape but they aren’t terrible. It will be interesting to see how the dimension changes at City Field affect the Mets. It may turn out to be a big positive if the offense really turns around. On the other hand, the old dimensions really kept the Mets in a lot of games, so it could end up being a non-factor or maybe even worse.

19. Cincinnati Reds (80-82): The problem with a team like the Reds is that everything has to go right for them, and even then they’re not going to be that great. Cincinnati should score some runs, but pitching will again be a question mark. They have to figure out what to do with Aroldis Chapman, whose talent has so far not been much help in the standings. There is some talent on this team but there are also plenty of holes. And then there’s Dusty Baker to consider.

20. Colorado Rockies (78-84): I say it every year: they are dangerous. They are dangerous because of the lineup and they are dangerous because of the home field. The bullpen is a problem, but the biggest problem in my opinion is the rotation. I’ve been wrong before about Colorado’s pitching, but it looks awful to me. However, if Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are healthy and the Rockies get hot, look out.

21. Cleveland Indians (76-86): The Indians weren’t nearly as bad as I thought they would be last year, but of course they weren’t nearly as good as they looked early on. They’ve also made some questionable decisions in the past year or so. They’re a below average team in all areas and they should be rebuilding but they don’t seem to be fully committed. I don’t really get that. Let’s face it: even if they manage to be semi-competitive they aren’t going to draw many fans, so why not just go into complete rebuilding mode?

22. Minnesota Twins (72-90): The Twins defied the odds for years, remaining competitive despite one of the smallest payrolls in baseball. Then just when they came into some money and were seemingly more capable of competing with the big boys, they dropped off. Why? I think there are several factors.

First and foremost, the injuries to three cornerstones of the franchise—Francisco Liriano, Justin Morneau, and former closer Joe Nathan—were too much for the team to overcome. Those types of career stunting injuries would hurt any team, but for a team like the Twins they were devastating.

Second, I don’t think people understood just how important the Metrodome was to Minnesota’s success. I mean, the 1991 World Series is in many ways the single biggest sporting event of my life as a fan, and even I underestimated the Metrodome’s importance. Adding to this was the fact that nobody really knew how big of a deal Target Field’s dimensions were going to be.

Finally, we have to look at Joe Mauer. Not just at his injury issues, but also the fact that his situation was probably misunderstood. The former overall #1 draft pick had already won two batting titles prior to 2009 when he put it all together and hit .365 with 28 homers, posting a 1.031 OPS on the way to winning the MVP.

The Twins—and many other people—saw that 2009 season as Mauer’s “breakthrough” season, and expected him to be that player for the next 5, 7, maybe even 10 years. In reality, it was probably more like his “peak” season, and the Twins—and everyone else—should have expected him to be more like the player he was in every other season, which is to say, an annual batting title contender, but not a guy who hits more than 15 homers.

Anyway, if the Twins get healthy they could bounce back. I still see a below average lineup and the pitching seems even worse than that. The funny thing is, I used to think that about the Twins almost every year and they would still win 90 games. But that was in the old “park.”

23. Kansas City Royals (68-94): Some of KC’s prospects have blossomed. The problem is that it’s just taken too long. Another problem is that some of the prospects haven’t turned out at all. There are just too many holes. They had stability at the back of the bullpen in Joakim Soria, but now he’s gone for the year. The rotation continues to look like bottom-of-the-barrel stuff. At least the Royals don’t look like the very worst team in baseball anymore.

24. Chicago Cubs (66-96): Theo Epstein may eventually get the ship turned around. I don’t really know how much of his genius is overblown. What I do know—or what I at least feel pretty certain about—is that this isn’t the year. They’re below average across the board. They kind of remind me of the early 90’s Cubbies, which is actually a pleasant thought.

25. San Diego Padres (65-97): The bullpen should be strong. The rest of the team looks awful to me. I just don’t see how they’re going to score any runs. The Padres are maybe a little better than they were a year ago, or maybe it’s just that other teams have gotten worse. The last time I picked them to be this bad they nearly made the playoffs, but that was in 2010 when they had Gonzalez (Adrian, not Alberto).

26. Seattle Mariners (64-98): I finally got this team right last year after several years of being way off. I’m feeling confident this season (in my chances; not Seattle’s). They’re not any good.

27. Pittsburgh Pirates (62-100): At least no one is telling us how the Pirates are close to turning the corner this year.

28. Baltimore Orioles (61-101): And at least no one is telling us how much of a difference Buck Showalter is going to make in Baltimore. Now he’s not even the biggest loudmouthed jackass manager in his own division.

29. Houston Astros (59-103): They are well into the rebuilding process but I wouldn’t expect to see any progress this season.

30. Oakland Athletics (58-104): I’m not sure about this, but I think Moneyball may have been the best thing that could have happened to Billy Beane’s career as a celebrity/historical figure, and the worst thing that could have happened to his career as a General Manager.