Tuesday, April 10, 2012

The College Basketball Blog: 2012 NCAA Tournament Recap/Wrap-up/Breakdown Part XVII (Final Notes)

(XVII) Final NCAA Notes


Weird Year for #2 seeds: Missouri was just the 5th #2 seed to lose in the 1st round since the field expanded in 1985, and the first since 2001. Just hours later, Duke joined them as the 6th #2 seed to lose in the round of 64, as two #2 seeds went down in the 1st round for the first time ever. However, the two remaining #2 seeds both reached the Final Four, with one of those #2 seeds reaching the championship game.


Historically Bad: In my opinion, Missouri’s loss to Norfolk State in the 1st round is easily the worst loss in modern NCAA Tourney history (1985-to the present). For me personally, it is the single biggest college basketball upset I have ever witnessed. In terms of the spread, the Spartans’ 21-point upset was the largest in NCAA Tournament history (at least officially).

For perspective, when Lehigh shocked Duke a few hours later in another #15 over #2 stunner, they did so as just 11-point underdogs. Mizzu (-21) was the 2nd biggest spread of the entire tournament (only Kentucky (-25) against Western Kentucky in the 1st round was bigger).

The Tigers entered the tournament ranked #3 in the country with a #10 RPI and a record of 30-4, coming off of winning the Big XII Tournament (the 3rd ranked conference in the RPI). Norfolk State was #127 in the RPI; 5th worst among tournament teams. They had finished 2nd in the MEAC (ranked #30 among 33 conferences in RPI) during the regular season, going 25-9.

Mizzu had lost only 4 games all season, with 3 of those losses coming to Kansas (on the road in OT) and Kansas State (twice). Norfolk State, on the other hand, had been swept by Delaware State (15-14 overall) and finished behind Savannah State in the MEAC regular season standings. Savannah State was knocked off early on in the MEAC Tournament and Norfolk State ended up winning to get into the Dance.

On December 18th, the Norfolk State Spartans lost 68-36 at Illinois State. But that inglorious score wasn’t even the first one that jumped out at you when you checked out Norfolk State’s schedule. That would be their November 30th loss at home by 12 points to Elizabeth City State. Yes, Elizabeth City State of…some level below Division-I. MEAC teams had lost their first game of the NCAA tournament in each of the last 10 years.

Missouri wasn’t just one of the best teams in the country; they were perhaps the most experienced team in the nation. Mizzu’s 7-man rotation consisted of 5 seniors, a junior, and a sophomore. The only freshman on the roster hadn’t played since New Year’s Eve. This was Mizzu’s 4th straight trip to the tournament.

Despite all of this, the Tigers trailed Norfolk State by 6 points with 2:17 to go, and they only had a chance to hit a game-tying 3 at the buzzer because the Spartans missed 4 of their last 5 FT’s.

This was easily the most memorable moment of the tournament for me. It was the most surprising college basketball result I had ever seen. It was a historically awful loss. It was a once-in-a-generation upset. Simply put: it was inconceivable.


The Dukies Are Done: People were naturally going to compare Duke’s loss to Lehigh with Mizzu’s loss to Norfolk State, but Missouri’s choke was really on another level.

However, in some ways Lehigh’s victory over Duke was just as historic. Duke just doesn’t go down in the 1st round and they don’t go down to teams from Low Major conferences. For the Blue Devils, this was just their 3rd First Round loss in 28 trips to the tournament under Coach K. It was pretty amazing to see the Dukies suffer such an embarrassing defeat: in the 1st round; as a #2 seed; to a #15 seed from the Patriot League. And it really wasn’t that close.


Gators Great but Could Have Been Greater: For the 2nd year in a row the Florida Gators made a run to the Elite 8 and had a trip to the Final 4 seemingly in their grasp before letting it slip away. Last year they lost to a Butler team that they were clearly better than, in a game they appeared to have won several times. This season they had Louisville against the ropes and were in complete control until choking down the stretch.


Michigan State’s Startling Exit: I’m still trying to figure out exactly what happened to the Spartans in the regional semifinals against Louisville. They got outplayed, outworked, outmanned, and outhustled. They looked slow. They were just awful.

Michigan State had only lost by double digits twice all season but they lost by 13 to Louisville. MSU averaged 71.6 points per game this season; against the Cardinals they scored just 44 points. Draymond Green fired seven 3-pointers, hitting only 1, and turned the ball over 6 times.


The Biggest of the Big Programs: This wasn’t a great year for “Cinderella.” Ohio and Xavier were the only non-BCS conference schools to make the Sweet 16, and in my opinion the MAC and the A-10 are High Major conferences anyway.

It wasn’t just about the biggest schools this year; it was also about the biggest programs. The only traditional heavyweight power not to make the tourney this season was UCLA. 11 of the 14 programs with multiple national championships made the field of 68. 7 of 8 teams in this year’s Elite 8 had already won the tournament at least once before, with Florida (2), Louisville (2), Kentucky (7 at that point), Syracuse (1), Ohio State (1), Kansas (3), and UNC (5) combining for 21. All 4 of the Final 4 teams had won the tournament in previous years, with Louisville, Kentucky, Kansas, and Ohio State combining for 13.


One of the Most Unfortunate Aspects of Sport: As much as I hate silly controversies, bad officiating, maniacal rantings about PED’s, etc. the one thing I hate more than any other in sports is injuries/suspensions. I just hate it when we don’t get to find out how things might have turned out if all the key players were healthy and eligible.

There were obviously two huge injuries/suspensions that without a doubt changed the shape of this year’s tournament. Obviously I’m talking about the suspension of Syracuse center Fab Melo right before the start of the tourney and the broken wrist suffered by UNC PG Kendall Marshall late in round 2.

North Carolina was the only team that could have challenged Kentucky this season, and it’s hard for me to see how they wouldn’t have wound up playing in the national title game if Marshall hadn’t gone down. Marshall was the best point guard in the country this season and the Heels were just screwed without him.

Kendall Marshall averaged 8.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, 9.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.8 turnovers playing 33 minutes a game this season, but the numbers don’t tell the story. Not only was Marshall the most efficient floor general in the country, he was the only PG UNC had. He had 300 more assists than anyone else on the team when he went down.

Melo’s loss was also crucial. Just like UNC, Cuse reached the Elite 8 before falling, but they may have been able to get by Ohio State if they had their 7 footer. They took a psychological hit when he was lost just before things got under way (and it showed, as they nearly lost to UNC-Asheville. The Syracuse zone just wasn’t going to be the same without Melo, and rebounding would be an even bigger concern. Melo averaged 7.8 points, 5.8 boards, 2.9 blocks, and .566 FG% in 25.4 minutes a game. He couldn’t be replaced.

These were the two most widely publicized and discussed injuries/suspension issues, but they were not the only crucial late season losses suffered by some of the top teams.

Florida lost sophomore forward Will Yeguete late in the year (21.9 minutes; 4.4 points; 6.3 rebounds; 1.0 assists; 1.2 steals; .581 FG%) and they could have used another big body against Louisville.

For Indiana, losing senior guard Verdell Jones III was more a psychological and spiritual blow than anything else. He averaged 24.5 minutes a game and scored 7.5 points with 2.9 rebounds and 3.2 assists, but his veteran presence was his biggest asset.

Michigan State also lost a key player in late season Big Ten play. Versatile freshman Branden Dawson averaged 20.6 minutes, 8.4 points, 4.5 boards, 0.9 steals, 0.8 blocks, and .577 FG% this season. He left a big hole that the Spartans weren’t able to fill.

Finally, in one of the more underrated stories of the tournament, Duke had to play without junior forward Ryan Kelly (25.9 minutes, 11.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.0 blocks, .408 3PT%) and they certainly missed him.


Final Thought: This certainly wasn’t a “bad” NCAA Tournament (hard to imagine such a thing). It wasn’t one of the greatest, most entertaining, or most memorable. I’d say it was around average. And you know what? It’ll still probably end up being the best sporting event of the year.

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