2012
College Football Predictions
Conference records in parenthesis: (#-#); regular season schedule records are open: #-#; final records after championship games and bowl games are in brackets: [#-#].
Conferences listed in order of rank; ranking listed in parenthesis to right of each conference name.
Number of bowl teams listed in parenthesis to right of each conference name.
Bowl teams in bold; conference champions in bold italics.
Certain teams are ineligible for postseason play and are noted as such.
Despite a number of ineligible teams, I have still projected more eligible teams than there are bowl invites available. Eligible teams left out will be noted as such.
With all the realignment and transitional FBS teams this year there are a few teams that play more or less than the standard 12 regular season games. These will be noted to avoid confusion.
Southeastern
Conference (Rank: #1; Bowl Teams: 11)
SEC West
1. LSU (7-1) 11-1 [13-1]
2. Alabama
(7-1) 11-1 [12-1]
3. Arkansas
(6-2) 10-2 [11-2]
4. Auburn
(4-4) 8-4 [9-4]
5. Mississippi
State (3-5) 7-5 [8-5]
6. Texas
A&M (2-6) 6-6 [7-6]
7. Mississippi (1-7) 4-8
SEC East
1. Georgia
(7-1) 11-1 [12-2]
2. Florida
(7-1) 11-1 [12-1]
3. South
Carolina (5-3) 9-3 [10-3]
4. Tennessee
(3-5) 7-5 [8-5]
5. Missouri
(2-6) 6-6 [7-6]
6. Kentucky (1-7) 4-8
7. Vanderbilt (1-7) 5-7
SEC
Championship Game
LSU (12-1) over Georgia (11-2)
Offensive
Player of the Year: Tyler Wilson-QB-Arkansas
Defensive
Player of the Year: Jarvis Jones-LB-Georgia
Coach
of the Year: John L Smith-Arkansas
Big
Ten Conference (Rank: #3; Bowl Teams: 8)
Big Ten Leaders
1. *Ohio State
(7-1) 11-1
2. Wisconsin
(6-2) 10-2 [10-4]
3. Illinois
(4-4) 7-5 [7-6]
4. Purdue
(3-5) 6-6 [6-7]
5. **Penn State (1-7) 4-8
6. Indiana (0-8) 4-8
Big Ten Legends
1. Michigan State (6-2) 10-2 [11-3]
2. Nebraska
(6-2) 10-2 [10-3]
3. Michigan
(6-2) 9-3 [9-4]
4. Northwestern
(4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
5. Iowa
(4-4) 8-4 [8-5]
6. Minnesota (1-7) 5-7
Big
Ten Championship Game
Michigan State (11-2) over Wisconsin (10-3)
*Ohio State is ineligible for conference
championship game, conference championship, BCS rankings, bowl games, and
national championship, but not from being on ESPN, as the worldwide leader
couldn’t get further up Urban Meyer’s ass if it was a suppository.
**Penn State is ineligible for conference
championship game, conference championship, BCS rankings, bowl games, national
championship, and doing anything fun. There is no fun allowed for the players,
the coaches, or the fans because they should be punished for something they had
absolutely nothing to do with.
Offensive
Player of the Year: Denard Robinson-QB-Michigan
Defensive
Player of the Year: Chris Borland-LB-Wisconsin
Coach
of the Year: Urban Meyer-Ohio State
Big
XII Conference (Rank: #2; Bowl Teams: 8)
1. Oklahoma (9-1) 11-0 [12-1]
2. Texas (8-1)
11-1 [11-2]
3. Oklahoma
State (7-2) 10-2 [10-3]
4. West
Virginia (6-3) 9-3 [10-3]
5. TCU
(4-5) 7-5 [8-5]
6. Texas Tech
(4-5) 7-5 [8-5]
7. Baylor (3-6)
6-6 [7-6]
8. Kansas
State (3-6) 6-6 [7-6]
9. Iowa State (2-7) 4-8
10. Kansas (0-9) 3-9
Offensive
Player of the Year: Landry Jones-QB-Oklahoma
Defensive
Player of the Year: Alex Okafor-DE-Texas
Coach
of the Year: Mike Gundy-Oklahoma State
Pac
12 Conference (Rank: #4; Bowl Teams: 8)
Pac 12 North
1. Oregon
(8-1) 11-1 [12-2]
2. Stanford
(6-3) 8-4 [8-5]
3. California
(5-4) 7-5 [7-6]
4. Washington
(4-5) 6-6 [7-6]
5. Oregon State
(4-5) 5-7
6. Washington State (2-7) 4-8
Pac 12 South
1. USC (9-0) 12-0 [13-1]
2. UCLA
(5-4) 7-5 [8-5]
3. Utah
(5-4) 8-4 [8-5]
4. Arizona (4-5)
6-6 [7-6]
5. Arizona State (2-7) 4-8
6. Colorado (0-9) 2-10
Pac
12 Championship Game
USC (13-0) over Oregon (11-2)
Offensive
Player of the Year: Matt Barkley-QB-USC
Defensive
Player of the Year: Chase Thomas-LB-Stanford
Coach
of the Year: Lane Kiffin-USC
Atlantic
Coast Conference (Rank: #5; Bowl Teams: 7)
ACC Atlantic
1. Florida State (8-0) 10-2 [12-2]
2. Clemson
(7-1) 9-3 [10-3]
3. North
Carolina State (4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
4. Maryland
(3-5) 6-6 [6-7]
5. Wake Forest (2-6) 4-8
6. Boston College (2-6) 5-7
ACC Coastal
1. *North Carolina (6-2) 9-3
2. Virginia
Tech (5-3) 9-3 [9-5]
3. Georgia
Tech (4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
4. Virginia
(4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
5. Miami (2-6) 3-9
6. Duke (1-7) 4-8
ACC
Championship Game
Florida State (11-2) over Virginia Tech (9-4)
*North Carolina is ineligible for conference
championship game, conference championship, BCS rankings, bowl games, and
national championship. The good news is that the NCAA’s Magic 8-Ball spit out
“No rules were violated” concerning the academic fraud charges.
Offensive
Player of the Year: Tajh Boyd-QB-Clemson
Defensive
Player of the Year: Brandon Jenkins-DE-Florida State
Coach
of the Year: Larry Fedora-North Carolina
Big
East Conference (Rank: #6; Bowl Teams: 6)
1. South Florida (6-1) 10-2 [10-3]
2. Rutgers
(5-2) 9-3 [10-3]
T3. *Louisville
(4-3) 8-4 [8-5]
T3. *Pittsburgh
(4-3) 7-5 [7-6]
T3. *Cincinnati
(4-3) 8-4 [8-5]
6. Connecticut
(3-4) 6-6 [6-7]
7. **Temple (1-6) 3-8
8. Syracuse (1-6) 2-10
*The Big East only goes to "highest BCS ranking" to break ties if the conference championship is on the line, so I'm unable to break this 3-way tie. None of the tie-breakers apply.
**Because Temple joined the Big East so late they
were unable to fill a full schedule and thus (as Phil Steele notes in this
year’s College Football Preview) they will be the first FBS team since 2005 to
play only 11 regular season games.
Offensive
Player of the Year: BJ Daniels-QB-South Florida
Defensive
Player of the Year: Khaseem Greene-LB-Rutgers
Coach
of the Year: Skip Holtz-South Florida
Mountain
West Conference (Rank: #7; Bowl Teams: 6)
1. Boise State (8-0) 10-2 [11-2]
2. Nevada
(7-1) 10-2 [10-3]
3. Fresno
State (6-2) 8-4 [8-5]
4. San Diego
State (5-3) 8-4 [8-5]
5. Wyoming
(4-4) 7-5 [7-6]
6. Air Force
(4-4) 7-5 [7-6]
7. Colorado State (3-5) 4-8
8. Hawaii (2-6) 4-8
9. *UNLV (1-7) 2-11
10. *New Mexico (0-8) 2-11
*UNLV and New Mexico are allowed to play 13 regular season games because they agreed to go to Hawaii to play.
Offensive
Player of the Year: Robbie Rouse-RB-Fresno State
Defensive
Player of the Year: Alex Means-LB-Air Force
Coach
of the Year: Chris Petersen-Boise State
Conference
USA
(Rank: #8; Bowl Teams: 6)
CUSA West
1. Tulsa (7-1) 9-3 [10-3]
2. Houston
(5-3) 8-4 [9-4]
3. SMU
(5-3) 6-6 [7-6]
4. UTEP (3-5) 4-8
5. Tulane (2-6) 3-9
6. Rice (1-7) 2-10
CUSA East
1. *Central Florida (7-1) 9-3
2. Southern
Mississippi (6-2) 9-3 [10-4]
3. East
Carolina (6-2) 8-4 [9-4]
4. Marshall
(4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
5. Memphis (2-6) 4-8
6. UAB (1-7) 2-10
Conference
USA Championship Game
Tulsa (10-3) over Southern Mississippi (9-4)
*Central Florida is ineligible for conference
championship game, conference championship, BCS rankings, bowl games, and
national championship. Why? Honestly, I’m not really sure. If there was an
omniscient god, it wouldn’t have the slightest clue why the NCAA does anything.
And this is actually a good example of the chaos that follows the NCAA into
every investigation.
UCF is actually appealing the football postseason
ban portion of the sanctions while accepting a slew of other punishments handed
down on both the football and basketball programs. We don’t know the outcome of
that appeal yet. It doesn’t seem likely that they would win (although it seems
silly to try and place odds on what the NCAA will or won’t do), but Central
Florida—who looks like the top team in Conference USA and picked the wrong time
to crap out at the NCAA Casino—is rightly gambling that their appeal won’t be
handled anytime soon since the NCAA never handles anything swiftly (except when
it comes to grandstanding and shifting the blame for the actions of a pedophile
onto a group of people who had nothing to do with it).
Or at least that’s what it seemed like a month ago.
However, in mid-August UCF made what appeared to be a puzzling move, requesting
an “expedited” appeals process, with hopes of receiving a verdict before the
end of the season. Discussing all the possible reasons for UCF’s apparent change
of tact would take more than 3 lengthy paragraphs full of run-on sentences.
To
get to the point, it’s possible that Central Florida won’t be banned from the
postseason this year (either due to winning the appeal or due to the NCAA not
getting around to ruling on the appeal), but I believe the reason UCF decided
to ask for an “expedited” appeals process is that they learned that the ruling
was going to happen before the end of the season anyway, so they decided to
make it look like that’s what they wanted. And since I don’t think UCF is going
to win that appeal, I’m going to make these picks assuming that they will be
banned this season.
Offensive
Player of the Year: Zach Line-RB-SMU
Defensive
Player of the Year: Jaime Collins-DE-Southern Mississippi
Coach
of the Year: Bill Blankenship-Tulsa
Mid-American
Conference (Rank: #9; Bowl Teams: 4)
MAC West
1. Western
Michigan (6-2) 8-4 [9-5]
2. Northern
Illinois (6-2) 8-4 [8-5]
3. Toledo (4-4) 5-7
4. Central Michigan (4-4) 5-7
5. Ball State (2-6) 3-9
6. Eastern Michigan (1-7) 2-10
MAC East
1. Bowling Green (7-1) 9-3 [11-3]
2. *Miami (OH) (6-2) 7-5
3. Ohio
(6-2) 8-4 [8-5]
4. *Kent State (5-3) 7-5
5. Buffalo (4-4) 5-7
6. Akron (1-7) 2-10
7. **Massachusetts (0-8) 0-12
MAC
Championship Game
Bowling Green (10-3) over Western Michigan (8-5)
*I’m picking both Miami (OH) and Kent State to have
winning records but not go to a bowl game. The reason for this is that so many
teams from power conferences play 2 to 3 significantly weaker opponents
nowadays that it’s just not that hard to go 6-6. And if, say, Minnesota goes
6-6, a bowl is probably going to take the Gophers over any MAC team, even if
that team has 10 wins. The reasons for this are well known.
The MAC teams tend
to get screwed because they just don’t have many bowl tie-ins, so they end up
being left out (like when 8-4 Temple was left out in 2010 in favor of 6-6
teams, or when 6-6 Ball State was left last year in favor of a UCLA team that
was 6-7). Although if you read the next footnote, you’ll find out that the NCAA
isn’t worried about teams getting left out of bowls games. They’re more worried
about having enough teams to fill up the bowls.
**Massachusetts is in a “transition year” moving
from the FCS to the FBS and won’t be a full FBS member until next season. Thus,
this year UMass is ineligible for conference championship game, conference
championship, BCS rankings, bowl games, and national championship.
If that isn’t confusing enough for you there’s also
this: there is a chance that they could go bowling anyway this season. The NCAA
decided to get out in front of an issue (sort of) and prepared for the
possibility that there might not be enough bowl eligible teams to fill up all
of the bowl slots this year. If that situation were to occur, exceptions could
be made to fill up those available spots.
The list of what sort of teams might be chosen is
lengthy and it does have an order of preference (it basically reads like a
tie-breaking process). It’s possible that one of the “transitional” teams could
go to a bowl if they were at least 6-6, but that option is pretty far down the
list. A lot of weird shit would have to happen. But as you can see, I don’t
expect the Minute Men to flirt with a 6-6 record anyway.
Offensive
Player of the Year: Alex Carder-QB-Western Michigan
Defensive
Player of the Year: Roosevelt Nix-DE-Kent State
Coach
of the Year: Dave Clawson-Bowling Green
Western
Athletic Conference (Rank: #10; Bowl Teams: 1)
1. Louisiana Tech (6-0) 9-3 [10-3]
2. *San Jose State (5-1) 8-4
3. *Utah State (4-2) 7-5
4. **Texas State (3-3) 4-8
5. Idaho (2-4) 3-9
6. New Mexico State (1-5) 3-9
7. **Texas-San Antonio (0-6) 4-8
*As explained earlier, while the NCAA is bracing for
the chance of having a shortage of bowl eligible teams, I’m predicting a
surplus. In the past, the WAC wasn’t usually at risk of having teams left out
of the bowl picture, or at least not as much as the MAC and Sun Belt were.
However, the WAC fell off considerably when Boise State left last year, and
during the last wave of realignment it very nearly ceased to exist. Even now
it’s barely breathing.
Only 5 full FBS members remain (LT, SJS, Utah St, Idaho,
NMS) and those 5 teams have combined to go to 5 bowl games in the last 10
years. Not one of them has had a double digit win season in the last 10 years.
With the league disintegrating, the WAC has lost most of its bowl tie-ins.
Thus, they are at as much risk of having a bowl eligible team left out in the
cold as the MAC or SBC.
**Texas State and Texas-San Antonio are
“transitioning” into the FBS from the FCS and are thus ineligible for bowl
games (although as noted earlier, they could go to a bowl if they finish at
least 6-6 and there aren’t enough eligible teams to fill all the bowl spots).
And now just for fun let’s make it more confusing. Both Texas State and UTSA
are eligible to compete for the WAC title, and the WAC champ is automatically
slotted into the Idaho Potato Bowl Thingy, but neither team would be eligible
to play in that bowl game even if they won the WAC title. Before your head
explodes, let me add that UTSA won’t be eligible for a bowl until 2014.
Offensive
Player of the Year: Quinton Patton-WR-Louisiana Tech
Defensive
Player of the Year: Travis Johnson-DE-San Jose State
Coach
of the Year: Mike Macintyre –San Jose State
Sun
Belt Conference (Rank: #11; Bowl Teams: 2)
1. Troy (8-0) 9-3 [10-3]
2. Louisiana-Lafayette
(7-1) 9-3 [9-4]
3. *FIU (6-2) 7-5
4. *Arkansas State (5-3) 7-5
5. Western Kentucky (4-4) 5-7
6. Middle Tennessee State (3-5) 5-7
7. Louisiana-Monroe (3-5) 3-9
8. North Texas (2-6) 3-9
9. Florida Atlantic (1-7) 2-10
10. **South Alabama (0-8) 2-11
*As explained previously, I’m predicting a surplus
of bowl eligible teams, and in that scenario it’s almost always the teams from
the weakest conferences that get left out.
**South Alabama is another of the “transitional”
teams that aren’t eligible for the postseason. See previous footnotes for more
info because I don’t really want to cut and paste. In addition, South Alabama is allowed to play 13 regular season games because they agreed to make the trip to Hawaii to play.
Offensive
Player of the Year: Ryan Aplin-QB-Arkansas State
Defensive
Player of the Year: Andrew Jackson-LB-Western Kentucky
Coach
of the Year: Larry Blakeney-Troy
*Independents
(Rank: #12; Bowl Teams: 3)
1. BYU 9-3
[10-3]
2. Notre Dame
8-4 [8-5]
3. Navy
6-6 [6-7]
4. Army 2-10
*This isn’t a conference, so I don’t pick a winner
or any awards. I realize that you’re almost certainly aware of this, but I just
wanted to do another footnote.
Bowl
Teams (70)
SEC
(11)
LSU
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Mississippi State
Texas A&M
Georgia
Florida
South Carolina
Tennessee
Missouri
Big
XII (8)
Oklahoma
Texas
Oklahoma State
West Virginia
TCU
Texas Tech
Baylor
Kansas State
Big
Ten (8)
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Michigan
Northwestern
Iowa
Michigan State
Purdue
Illinois
Pac
12 (8)
Oregon
Stanford
Arizona
Utah
Washington
California
USC
UCLA
ACC
(7)
Florida State
Virginia Tech
Clemson
North Carolina State
Georgia Tech
Virginia
Maryland
Big
East (6)
South Florida
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Connecticut
Rutgers
Louisville
MWC
(6)
Boise State
Nevada
Air Force
San Diego State
Wyoming
Fresno State
C-USA
(6)
Tulsa
Houston
Southern Mississippi
SMU
East Carolina
Marshall
MAC
(4)
Ohio
Northern Illinois
Western Michigan
Bowling Green
SBC
(2)
Troy
Louisiana-Lafayette
Independents
(3)
BYU
Notre Dame
Navy
WAC
(1)
Louisiana Tech
Conference
Champions
SEC:
LSU
Big
Ten:
Michigan State
Big
XII:
Oklahoma
Pac
12:
USC
ACC:
Florida State
Big
East: South Florida
MWC:
Boise State
C-USA:
Tulsa
WAC:
Louisiana Tech
MAC:
Bowling Green
SBC:
Troy
Final
BCS Standings
1. USC
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas
7. Oregon
8. Oklahoma State
9. Arkansas
10. Georgia
11. Michigan State
12. Florida State
13. Nebraska
14. West Virginia
BCS
Bowl Teams
USC (#1)
LSU (#2)
Florida State (ACC Champ)
South Florida (Big East Champ)
Oklahoma (Big XII Champ)
Michigan State (Big Ten Champ)
Oregon (At Large)
Alabama (At Large)
Texas (At Large)
Nebraska (At Large)
Bowl
Games
New
Mexico Bowl
Arizona over San Diego State
Idaho
Potato Bowl
Louisiana Tech over Northern Illinois
Poinsettia
Bowl
BYU over Nevada
Beef
‘O’ Brady’s Bowl
ECU over Cincinnati
New
Orleans Bowl
Troy over Marshall
Las
Vegas Bowl
Boise State over Utah
Hawai’i
Bowl
Southern Mississippi over Air Force
Little
Caesars Bowl
Western Michigan over Wyoming
Military
Bowl
Missouri over Ohio
Belk
Bowl
Rutgers over North Carolina State
Holiday
Bowl
Texas Tech over California
Independence
Bowl
Texas A&M over Virginia
Russell
Athletics Bowl
Clemson over Notre Dame
Meineke
Bowl
Baylor over Iowa
Armed
Forces Bowl
Houston over Fresno State
Kraft
Bowl
Washington over Navy
Pinstripe
Bowl
Kansas State over Louisville
Alamo
Bowl
West Virginia over Stanford
Buffalo
Bowl
TCU over Northwestern
Music
City Bowl
Tennessee over Maryland
Sun
Bowl
UCLA over Georgia Tech
Liberty
Bowl
Tulsa over Connecticut
Peach
Bowl
South Carolina over Virginia Tech
TicketCity
Bowl
SMU over Purdue
Gator
Bowl
Auburn over Illinois
Capital
One Bowl
Florida over Michigan
Outback
Bowl
Georgia over Wisconsin
Rose
Bowl
Oregon over Michigan State
Orange
Bowl
Florida State over Nebraska
Sugar
Bowl
Alabama over Texas
Fiesta
Bowl
Oklahoma over South Florida
Cotton
Bowl
Arkansas over Oklahoma State
BBVA
Compass Bowl
Mississippi State over Pittsburgh
GoDaddy.com
Bowl
Bowling Green over Louisiana-Lafayette
BCS
National Championship Game
#2 LSU over #1 USC
National
Champion: LSU
Final
AP Rankings
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. USC
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
7. Oregon
8. Arkansas
9. Georgia
10. Texas
National
Awards
Heisman
Trophy Award: Matt Barkley-QB-USC
Heisman
Voting
1. Matt Barkley-QB-USC
2. Landry Jones-QB-Oklahoma
3. Geno Smith-QB-West Virginia
4. BJ Manuel-QB-Florida State
5. Tajh Boyd-QB-Clemson
6. Tyler Wilson-QB-Arkansas
Maxwell
Award (Outstanding Player): Landry Jones-QB-Oklahoma
Walter
Camp Award (Player of the Year): Geno Smith-QB-West
Virginia
Davey
O’Brien Award (National Quarterback Award): Tyler Wilson-QB-Arkansas
Johnny
Unitas Golden Arm Award (Outstanding Senior Quarterback):
Matt Barkley-QB-USC
Doak
Walker Award (National Running Back Award): Marcus
Lattimore-RB-South Carolina
Fred
Biletnikoff Award (Outstanding Wide Receiver):
Sammy Watkins-WR-Clemson
John
Mackey Award (Outstanding Tight End): Philip Lutzenkirchen-TE-Auburn
Outland
Trophy Award (Outstanding Interior Lineman): John
Jenkins-DT-Georgia
Vince
Lombardi Award (Outstanding Lineman): Brandon
Jenkins-DE-Florida State
Rimington
Award (Outstanding Center): Barrett Jones-C-Alabama
Chuck
Bednarik Award (Defensive Player of the Year):
Jarvis Jones-LB-Georgia
Bronko
Nagurski Award (Defensive Player of the Year):
Alex Okafor-DE-Texas
Lott
Trophy Award (Outstanding Defensive Player): TJ
McDonald-S-USC
Ted
Hendricks Award (Outstanding Defensive End): Jadeveon
Clowney-DE-South Carolina
Dick
Butkus Award (Outstanding Linebacker): Chase Thomas-LB-Stanford
Jim
Thorpe Award (Outstanding Defensive Back): David
Amerson-CB-North Carolina State
Lou
Groza Award (Outstanding Placekicker): Quinn Sharp-K-Oklahoma
State
Ray
Guy Award (Outstanding Punter): Brad Wing-P-LSU
Johnny
Rodgers Award (National Return Specialist Award):
De’Anthony Thomas-KR/PR-Oregon
National
Coach of the Year Award: Lane Kiffin-USC
Preseason
Power 15
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. USC
4. Oklahoma
5. Oregon
6. Texas
7. Ohio State
8. Georgia
9. Florida
10. Florida State
11. Arkansas
12. West Virginia
13. Michigan
14. Nebraska
15. South Carolina
