Wednesday, September 26, 2012

The College Football Blog: 2012 Week 5 Betting Lines



Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 7-3; Vs. Spread: 3-7)
Overall (Straight Up: 34-15; Vs. Spread: 20-29; Moneyline Upsets: 1-2)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 23-17; Vs. Spread: 16-24)
Overall (Straight Up: 135-47; Vs. Spread: 93-89; Moneyline Upsets: 4-7)

Week 4 Review: Certainly not a good week for me. Once again I struggled mightily picking ATS in the biggest 10 games. This is really becoming a thing for me. It’s weird. I’ve already dug myself quite a hole in that category. By going 20-29 ATS overall last week I used up most of the cushion I had in that area for the year. And once again I failed to deliver on the moneyline upsets. To be honest, missing 15 games straight up overall isn’t very good either. 

Having said all of that, I’ve done worse. If I can bounce back this week I’ll be fine. And if last week ends up being my worst week of the season I’ll be very happy. 


Week 5 Preview: Last week was more about the surprises than it was about the handful of marquee matchups, which once again turned out to be mostly uncompetitive. This week there are a few sexy matchups but they are perhaps not as big as they looked in August. There are several rivalry games mixed into my biggest 10 games this week. 

One trend I’ve noticed so far this season is a very high percentage of the most intriguing matchups taking place at night. I realize that scheduling big games for primetime and later is nothing new to college football. I guess it would be more accurate to say that I’ve noticed a trend of almost zero big top shelf matchups being played early in the day. The decline of the Big Ten may have something to do with this. 

Anyhow, I’d love a good week to bounce back from last week’s disappointing result. At the very least I need to avoid a repeat of last week’s performance, as another week like that will have me on the wrong side of .500 ATS and in a deep hole in several other categories.  



Saturday


Game 1: Baylor (+12.5) @ West Virginia  
Pick: Baylor beats the spread

Game 2: Minnesota (+7.5) @ Iowa
Pick: Minnesota beats the spread

Game 3: Ohio State (+3.5) @ Michigan State  
Pick: Ohio State pulls off the upset

Game 4: Tennessee (+13) @ Georgia
Pick: Georgia covers

Game 5: Houston (-5) vs. Rice (Reliant Stadium)
Pick: Houston covers

Game 6: Florida State (-17) @ South Florida
Pick: Florida State covers

Game 7: TCU (-16.5) @ SMU
Pick: TCU covers

Game 8: Texas (-2.5) @ Oklahoma State
Pick: Texas covers

Game 9: Wisconsin (+13) @ Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska covers

Game 10: Oregon State (+2.5) @ Arizona   
Pick: Arizona covers


Other Games


Thursday


Stanford (-6.5) @ Washington (Stanford covers)


Friday


Hawaii (+27.5) @ BYU (BYU covers)


Saturday


Buffalo (+16) @ Connecticut (UConn covers)
Indiana (+11.5) @ Northwestern (Northwestern covers)
Penn State (+1.5) @ Illinois (Penn State pulls off the upset)
Ball State (-1) @ Kent State (BSU covers)
North Carolina State (+3) @ Miami (Miami covers)
Missouri (+2.5) @ Central Florida (Missouri pulls off the upset)
Middle Tennessee State (+27.5) @ Georgia Tech (GT covers)
Arkansas (+13.5) @ Texas A&M (Arkansas beats the spread)
Duke (+3) @ Wake Forest (Wake Forest covers)
Nevada (-20) @ Texas State (Nevada covers)
Colorado State (+15) @ Air Force (AF covers)
Miami (OH) (-4.5) @ Akron (Akron beats the spread)
Tulsa (-13.5) @ UAB (Tulsa covers)
Marshall (+16.5) @ Purdue (Purdue covers)
Virginia Tech (-7) vs. Cincinnati (Landover) (Cincinnati beats the spread)
Ohio (-24) @ Massachusetts (Ohio covers)
Central Michigan (+10.5) @ Northern Illinois (CM beats the spread)
Louisiana-Monroe (-17.5) @ Tulane (ULM covers)
Troy (-9.5) @ South Alabama (Troy covers)
Clemson (-9.5) @ Boston College (Clemson covers)
San Jose State (-2.5) @ Navy (SJS covers)
Louisiana Tech (-2.5) @ Virginia (LT covers)
Idaho (+24.5) @ North Carolina (UNC covers)
Arizona State (+2) @ California (ASU pulls off the upset)
North Texas (-6.5) @ Florida Atlantic (NT covers)
UCLA (-20.5) @ Colorado (UCLA covers)
Boise State (-26) @ New Mexico (Boise State covers)
UTEP (+4.5) @ East Carolina (UTEP beats the spread)
Texas Tech (-2.5) @ Iowa State (Iowa State pulls off the upset)
South Carolina (-20.5) @ Kentucky (South Carolina covers)
Western Kentucky (-2.5) @ Arkansas State (Western Kentucky covers)
Toledo (+1.5) @ Western Michigan (WM covers)
Florida International (+6.5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (FIU beats the spread)
Texas-San Antonio (+3.5) @ New Mexico State (UTSA beats the spread)
UNLV (+17.5) @ Utah State (UNLV beats the spread)
Louisville (-10.5) @ Southern Mississippi (Louisville covers)
Mississippi (+31) @ Alabama (Alabama covers)
San Diego State (+7.5) @ Fresno State (SD State beats the spread)
Oregon (-28.5) @ Washington State (Oregon covers)





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